[k13]

This is from ESPN Insider...not taking credit for it just passing along the information.


Week 12 Vegas NFL Power Rankings

Each week, an elite group of bookmakers and professional bettors provides Pregame.com with its private power rankings. These numbers literally influence the worldwide sports betting market -- and together form the Vegas Rankings. Four categories convey what the "experts in the desert" truthfully think about the teams:



TRUE POWER: How good Vegas thinks a team really is.
HOME-FIELD ADVANTAGE: The value of each team's home field.
BETTOR BIAS: How many points the public overvalues (positive numbers) or undervalues (negative numbers) a team.
POINT-SPREAD POWER: The combination of True Power and Bettor Bias.


To calculate the projected winner of any matchup:
Take True Power (home team), ADD Home-Field Advantage and SUBTRACT True Power (away team).


To calculate the projected point spread of any matchup:
Replace the True Power with Point-Spread Power (which includes Bettor Bias, just like the actual Vegas line does).




Biggest Improvement -- TRUE POWER

Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Baltimore Ravens


Biggest Drop -- TRUE POWER

Houston Texans
Chicago Bears
Kansas City Chiefs


Here are the Week 12 NFL Vegas Rankings:
Pregame.com's Week 12 Vegas NFL Rankings

Rank	Team	Home-Field	True Power	Bettor Bias	Point-Spread Power
1	Green Bay Packers	4	100	2	102
2	New England Patriots	3.5	97.5	2	99.5
t-3	Pittsburgh Steelers	2.5	96.5	2	98.5
t-3	New Orleans Saints	3.5	96.5	0	96.5
t-5	San Francisco 49ers	3	96	0.5	96.5
t-5	Baltimore Ravens	3	96	0	96
7	Philadelphia Eagles	2.5	94.5	0	94.5
8	Dallas Cowboys	2.5	94	1.5	95.5
t-9	Atlanta Falcons	3	93	0	93
t-9	Detroit Lions	3	93	0	93
t-9	New York Giants	3	93	0	93
t-9	New York Jets	3	93	0	93
t-13	Houston Texans	3	92	0	92
t-13	Oakland Raiders	2.5	92	0	92
t-15	Cincinnati Bengals	3	91	0	91
t-15	Chicago Bears	2.5	91	-0.5	90.5
t-17	San Diego Chargers	2.5	90	0	90
t-17	Tennessee Titans	2.5	90	0	90
19	Miami Dolphins	2	89.5	0	89.5
20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	89	0	89
t-21	Buffalo Bills	3.5	88	0	88
t-21	Minnesota Vikings	3	88	0	88
t-23	Denver Broncos	2.5	87	0.5	87.5
t-23	Seattle Seahawks	3	87	0	87
t-25	Carolina Panthers	3	85.5	0	85.5
t-25	Arizona Cardinals	2.5	85.5	-0.5	85
t-27	Cleveland Browns	2.5	85	0	85
t-27	Washington Redskins	3	85	-0.5	84.5
29	Kansas City Chiefs	2.5	84.5	0	84.5
30	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	84	-0.5	83.5
31	St. Louis Rams	2	83.5	-0.5	83
32	Indianapolis Colts	2	81	-2	79
Week-to-week injuries (adjustments NOT yet made above)
Michael Vick (Eagles) worth 2 points
Matt Hasselbeck (Titans) worth 2 points
Adrian Peterson (Vikings) worth 1.5 points
Kevin Kolb (Cardinals) worth 1 point

The following injuries are season-ending and adjustments have already been made to True Power for: Texans -3 (Matt Schaub); Chiefs -2 (Matt Cassel); Bears -3 (Jay Cutler)


Most Overrated and Underrated Teams

Wins	Best Team (Rk)	Worst Team (Rk)
7 or more	Packers (1)	Bears (15)
5 or 6 wins	Cowboys (8)	Broncos (23)
4 Wins	Eagles (7)	Titans (29)
3 or less	Dolphins (19)	Colts (32)

All good bettors know that a team's records against the spread and straight up aren't equal. For example, the Carolina Panthers are 2-8 SU but 5-4-1 ATS; the New York Giants are 6-4 SU but only 4-5-1 ATS. To the right are the teams ranked best and worst by the Vegas Rankings, grouped by SU victories. In parentheses is the team's overall True Power ranking.




Projected Spreads



We projected the Week 12 NFL spreads using Point-Spread Power and compared them to the current lines. The table is below, which shows you where Vegas pros think the value lies this week.
Projected Week 12 Spreads

Lines displayed from home team's perspective. True Power projects margin of victory. Point-Spread Power projects point spread.

Home Team	Road Team	Current	True Power	Point-Spread Power
Lions	Packers	+6	+4	+6
Cowboys	Dolphins	-6.5	-7	-8.5
Ravens	49ers	-3	-3	-2.5
Rams	*Cardinals	-3	-1	-1
Jets	Bills	-8	-8	-8
Bengals	Browns	-7	-9	-9
Jaguars	Texans	+3	+6	+6.5
Colts	Panthers	+3.5	+2.5	+4.5
Titans	Bucs	-3	-3.5	-3.5
Falcons	*Vikings	-9	-9.5	-9.5
Raiders	Bears	-4.5	-3.5	-4
Seahawks	Redskins	-4.5	-5	-5
Eagles	Patriots	NL	+.5	+2.5
Chargers	Broncos	-6.5	-5.5	-5
Chiefs	Steelers	+10	+9.5	+11.5
Saints	Giants	-7	-7	-7
*Injury adjustment included in projections (if injury adjustment is not included, and player is later determined to be out, add adjustment to projections).

Voters
Jimmy Vaccaro: Director of Sportsbook Operations for the Lucky's chain in Nevada.
Jay Kornegay: Sportsbook director at Las Vegas Hilton.
Johnny Avello: Sportsbook director at Wynn Las Vegas.
Chris Andrews: Assistant Sportsbook director for the Cal-Neva chain in Nevada.
"Vegas Runner": Professional bettor featured by CNBC and ESPN -- columnist for Gaming Today.

[k13]

I must say these are very spot on, very interesting to look at. Comparing a few lines that are off and why...

Can't really argue with any of it.

[k13]

I guess no one finds these interesting but me.

[dlunc3]

I find this very interesting, and would love to.see it every week... These are most accurate rankings I have seen, and seem like a great betting tool