[billysink]

Green Bay @ Detroit

I have been looking for a spot to fade Green Bay and this will be it. I have seen enough of their last 5 games to know that they are not as good as this line indicates.

Before I get too deep into what I have gleaned over the last few days of capping let me say that Aaron Rodgers is a great player and there is no disputing that . With that said I don’t think he can win it on his own this week.

Reviewing the Pack’s schedule this year shows that they have played the third easiest slate in the league at # 30. I use the Sagarin strength of schedule rankings in my assessments. I do not make any other observation on these SS numbers or attempt to opine on them. Jeff Sagarin’s mathematical angle is a number. It takes all opinion out of the mix. That same number for the Lions is quite a different story. Their SS number is 6, placing them in the top tier of tough schedules this year.

No one can argue the caliber of the passing offense for the Pack. This will be its toughest test defensively by far this year. The Lion pass defense is at the top of the league in yards allowed per attempt @ 5.4. Only Pittsburgh is as good as them at limiting the big play. This is one of the loudest places to play In the league and anyone, including Rodgers will not have it easy at Ford. He is facing one of the most active an athletic defensive front 7’s he will see this year. I really like how Nick Fairley compliments Suh now that he is up to speed. Rush ends KVB and Cliff Avril are highly underated in my estimation. If this line can stay out of penalty trouble it will best the Pack front 4 on Thursday. This is the game that the Pack really miss Chad Clifton at LT and you can be sure that will be mentioned during the broadcast on game day. To further emphasis the left side issues Clifton’s replacement Marshall Newhouse has been limited in practice this week with a bad knee.

The Lions defense does have an Achilles heel and that is its play against the run. If this game was in Green Bay I would be hesitant to make a play on the Lions for that reason. They have been better in recent weeks and now finally show a YPR allowed of less than 5 at 4.96. Comparable to the Pack’s run D. Because of the noise at Ford and also because I am not overly concerned with Green Bay’s ability to run the ball (3.88 YPR) I am not going to make the Lion’s run defense a real issue here.

Conversely I give the Lion’s the advantage running the ball against the Packer D-Line who are giving up a ton of yards on the ground of late. Tampa averaged a whopping 6.1 YPR last week. Several week teams have run the ball at a good clip this year against the Pack but have been forced to abandon the run early as they have fallen behind by multiple possessions. To summarize I think the Lions have an edge at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball here.

Matt Stafford is the kind of QB who can make you trash your living room. I almost did this past weekend. He had no clue or was not used to that glove in the first half last week. If he is on the Pack secondary is in trouble. Looking at the numbers I see them giving up 7.4 YPC. That is two full yards more than the Lions secondary. I do not think they can cover Calvin Johnson as the Pack does not match up well at all with big rangy recievers. Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs. There will be no safety help here.

I can’t believe I am actually typing this. The Packers have been outgained in 4 of their last 5 games. Tampa, Minny, San Diego and St. Louis all produced more offense than Green Bay head to head. They have shown some glaring weaknesses which have been masked by their record and the media hype surrounding Aaron Rodgers MVP season. Again I have nothing bad to say about Rodgers, I think he is the MVP so far. But it is a team game and this team has some weaknesses.

In a blind taste test if I gave you a team with a 30th ranked defense compiled against a week schedule against a team with a 9th ranked defense compiled against a much tougher schedule, advantages at the line of scrimmage, a better pass defense and a 6 point head start, who would you play. And I told you this team were on the road in one of the noisiest building in the NFL and playing their 3rd game in 11 days.

Who would you take.

Now Stafford may decide Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are his favorite receivers; Suh and Fairley may forget this is not MMA. Jim Schwartz may not recognize a good matchup again (I can believe he didn’t run the ball down Carolina’s throat from the opening whistle against a team missing 4 of their top 5 linebackers) and my assessment of the game may be completely wrong.

I have to play what I feel is a weak line here both statistically and in my assessment of game situations.

Lions +6 for 2 units
Lions ML for 1 unit.

[dlunc3]

Can you explain what rodgers may do to this defense, if cutler was able to go for 37, and cam 35? Kinda seems like he will have a field day

[meader99]

Detroit may very well win this game, however, who gives a crap about yards allowed? Last I knew it was points that won football games. Turnovers, as they are most of the time, will be the key to the game. Trust the guy that has thrown 4 picks all season or the guy that has thrown 7 in his last 2 games? If Detroits front four can get in the backfield most of the day they have a good shot at winning. If not, the Pack goes for 40+ and it's 11-0.

[billysink]

Can you explain what rodgers may do to this defense, if cutler was able to go for 37, and cam 35? Kinda seems like he will have a field day

How many points did Chicago's offense score again?? Was that 16 you said?

And Carolina. Was that 28 you said?

Detroit badly out gained both of those offenses.

You better check the box scores or watch a little football before you post Dunc.

And if that is your logic let me ask you. If Detroit rang up 49 on a 23rd ranked defense a 30th ranked defense should give them .........60? But that is not how you handicap is it.

I hope you handicap with a little more attention than you pay to the facts.

[billysink]

Detroit may very well win this game, however, who gives a crap about yards allowed? Last I knew it was points that won football games. Turnovers, as they are most of the time, will be the key to the game. Trust the guy that has thrown 4 picks all season or the guy that has thrown 7 in his last 2 games? If Detroits front four can get in the backfield most of the day they have a good shot at winning. If not, the Pack goes for 40+ and it's 11-0.

I give a crap about averages per attempt or allowed per attempt. They are the most accurate way to determine a team's strengths and a team's weaknesses. And I most certainly care about the strength of opponent against whom they have been accumulated.

You are certainly right about the turnovers and I did make pointed reference to that. I also should note that Detroit's special teams play has been severely lacking of late having given return touchdowns in their last 2 games.

[meader99]

I will take points allowed over yards allowed every day of the week. For 17 straight seasons, defenses coached by Bill Belicheck have finished the season ranked worse in yards allowed than in points allowed. Points win games, yards don't. I'll take points allowed and turnover differential above all else when grading a defense.

[billysink]

I will take points allowed over yards allowed every day of the week. For 17 straight seasons, defenses coached by Bill Belicheck have finished the season ranked worse in yards allowed than in points allowed. Points win games, yards don't. I'll take points allowed and turnover differential above all else when grading a defense.

And everyone of those Belichek teams lost games or failed to cover. On bad matchups. The kind that my statistical appoach will uncover.

You are using a blanket approach. Belichek's teams have as much to do with Green Bay @ Detroit as you and I do. That is not handicapping that is opinion.

I am handicapping a specific matchup. With statistics to simulate strengths vs. weaknesses.

If you do not agree I understand. Give me something to consider in that my approach to this one is off.

Other than your opinion.

You make valid points regarding turnovers. I say that Detroit has a much better defense than the Pack has faced and that combined with the venue make that a wash. I think both teams may have a turnover or two,

[PAULYPOKER]

Det ML is the only play here cause if they do lose it will be ugly..................

[meader99]

I used Bill Belicheck purely as an example of how points allowed are far superior to yards allowed. The man is considered by many as a defensive genius, yet for 17 straight years his defenses have finished worse in terms of yards allowed vs points allowed. I would suggest that the Bears defense is better than the Lions defense. I would also suggest that the Lions have not seen an offense like the Packers offense yet. The Packers defense has given up yards, but has also shown on several occasions to be able to make key 4th quarter stops when the game is still in the balance. You may very well be on the "right side" of this game, however, I think you give far to much creedence to yardage in handicapping this game.

[brewcrew2k]

Who is travon Johnson? Lol

[meader99]

Who is travon Johnson? Lol

The Rock's cousin?????

[billysink]

I used Bill Belicheck purely as an example of how points allowed are far superior to yards allowed. The man is considered by many as a defensive genius, yet for 17 straight years his defenses have finished worse in terms of yards allowed vs points allowed. I would suggest that the Bears defense is better than the Lions defense. I would also suggest that the Lions have not seen an offense like the Packers offense yet. The Packers defense has given up yards, but has also shown on several occasions to be able to make key 4th quarter stops when the game is still in the balance. You may very well be on the "right side" of this game, however, I think you give far to much creedence to yardage in handicapping this game.

Thanks for the example. Means little to me. I am handicapping this game.


I do em all the same way. This game and any other.

Just team A against team B for me.

Never been a fan.

Bears defense better than the Lion's?????

Now you lost me. There is nothing remotely factual to that. That is opinion and I am sorry no opinion is factored into what I do.

Good luck with however you see it.

[billysink]

Who is travon Johnson? Lol

I edited that thanks.

Might as well be Tramon ManIntheMoon.

He can't cover Johnson to save his life.

[brewcrew2k]

Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs"

Sound like opinion to me buddy.

Fact is yards gained do matter but not as much as you think. What about red zone defense, turnovers, 3 rf down conversion you left that out.

[meader99]

Thanks for the example. Means little to me. I am handicapping this game.


I do em all the same way. This game and any other.

Just team A against team B for me.

Never been a fan.

Bears defense better than the Lion's?????

Now you lost me. There is nothing remotely factual to that. That is opinion and I am sorry no opinion is factored into what I do.

Good luck with however you see it.

I could easily make the case that through 10 games the Bears have played a tougher schedule than the Lions and have subsequently allowed less points than the Lions. That in itself would make the Bears defense better than the Lions. No opinions, just the way the numbers stack up.

[billysink]

Worse I do not think they have anyone to cover the Pettigrew, Scheffler and the running backs"

Sound like opinion to me buddy.

Fact is yards gained do matter but not as much as you think. What about red zone defense, turnovers, 3 rf down conversion you left that out.

Not opinion. Just fact.

They are not going to cover Johnson without safety help.

Who is going to cover Pettigrew and Scheffler. Please do not say a linebacker.

I certainly did not leave out turnovers. Read the posts. All of them.

Your stats on third down defense.

Detroit 28.6% by far the best in the league.

Green Bay 42.9 near the bottom.

Can I help you with anything else??

[billysink]

conversely Detroit is much worse on offense on third down as well so I will make that stat a wash.

[Matt1144]

Bears defense better than the Lion's?????

Now you lost me. There is nothing remotely factual to that. That is opinion and I am sorry no opinion is factored into what I do.

lol gtfo

[billysink]

I could easily make the case that through 10 games the Bears have played a tougher schedule than the Lions and have subsequently allowed less points than the Lions. That in itself would make the Bears defense better than the Lions. No opinions, just the way the numbers stack up.

SS numbers for the Bears are only slightly better than the Lions. Not polarized like the Lions and Green Bay.

Bears defence is ranked 25th while having played a 2nd rated schedule.

Lions are 9th having played a 6th rated schedule.


I will leave the math to you.

Green Bay has the 30th ranked defense having played the 30th ranked schedule. Slice it any way you want. Offer any opinion. Fact is, that ain't very good. Aaron Rodgers is that football team. If he encounters any glitch what so ever this weekend I am right and you are wrong.

Hell I am wrong almost 40% of the time and I may be here. I have done my homework and I will let them play it out with 3 units on play on Detroit.

[billysink]

lol gtfo

Adult conversation. Diapers aisle is 3 to your left.

Thanks for your intelligent insight.

[SteveRyan]

@ billysink

What is your take on the total? Over 55 or under?

[billysink]

@ billysink

What is your take on the total? Over 55 or under?

I really don't have one I am sorry to say. I do not handicap totals in that range. They are quite volatile both ways and in my estimation a crap shoot. Back several years ago I used to use 34 and 48 as my parameters for allowable plays on totals.

I have adjusted slightly but I need to see one way off or be on one early before it moves to play. Something like an injury or weather to which a line has not adjusted may pique my interest but there is nothing like that here obviously.

With the state of the left side of the line for Green Bay and Detroit going to probably try to control some clock with the run against a defense that should allow some rush yardage, I would be hesitant to play the over.

Sorry I can't offer much more than that. The number is out of my range.

[Matt1144]

Adult conversation. Diapers aisle is 3 to your left.

Thanks for your intelligent insight.

Ok genius. You want intelligent? Bears are ranked 13th in points allowed per game. The Lions are ranked 19th. So yes there is some truth to the fact that the Bears defense is better than the Lion's defense.

As for how those points were distributed -

Bears had 3 out of 10 teams they played score over 24 points on them (NO, GB, and Car). 2 scored exactly 24 (one of which was Detroit at home). The rest were taken care of as they should have been save letting up 24 and 20 to more reputable offenses such as the Eagles and Chargers respectively.

Detroit on the other hand gave up over 24 points 4 times. 2 of the 4 times they let up over 24 points were their last 2 straight games (Bears 37 points allowed and Carolina 35 points allowed). Then there's the fact they had to play catch up to Minnesota, Dallas, and Carolina.

The Lions defense is not playing as well as everyone thinks and the numbers show this. They will let up points and their offense is not as good enough to keep up with Rodgers and his receiving core.

Bears defense is better than the Lions and the Packers will win Thursday.

[beerman2619]

Don't pay attention to Dlunc come on he is a delusional Eagals fan. To top that off he has a picture of his dreamboy Andy Reid in his profile pic. What man in the world would have Andy Reid in there profile pic COME ON MAN

[blankoblanco]

lions have lost to the last 3 quality opponents they have faced (49ers, falcons, bears) so why think it's going to be different now that they face an even better team? they might cover but i wouldn't bet on it. definitely wouldn't bet on ML as +225 isnt doing it for me -- i can't see much reason to think they win this game almost 1/3 of the time. they are an overvalued team to begin with and haven't beaten quality teams in their last 3 tries. also stafford finished the carolina game great, but still his fractured finger can't be a good thing. that awful bears performance was just 10 days ago, and all the picks of late are concerning

[arsenalxiv]

Det ML is the only play here cause if they do lose it will be ugly..................

I actually agree with this comment. And IMO, this game has BLOWOUT written all over it. The worst thing that could've happened to Detroit was for them to make that HUGE comeback win against Carolina and the way GB ALMOST lost to Tampa...Hm, I wonder how many would still be backing Detroit if they lost big time against Cam and GB hammered Tampa. Half the bettors thinking DET ML and points is still flying high over that Carolina game. I can definitely see how backers for Detroit are so confident.

[Stevedore]

Not opinion. Just fact.

They are not going to cover Johnson without safety help.

Who is going to cover Pettigrew and Scheffler. Please do not say a linebacker.

I certainly did not leave out turnovers. Read the posts. All of them.

Your stats on third down defense.

Detroit 28.6% by far the best in the league.

Green Bay 42.9 near the bottom.

Can I help you with anything else??

Woodson, when he's not blitzing of the slot will be matched up on one of them, and Bishop a linebacker will be on the other. Woodson is very good at covering TE's, just ask Jason Whitten of Dallas; Bishop struggles though.

Very good breakdown of the game I might add, both teams will certainly put up some numbers. A key player for the Packers on offense and a matchup nightmare for the Lions who didn't play in the 2nd game last season is Jermichael Finley. I think he'll have a HUGE game on Thursday as the Lions will be focusing on stopping Nelson and Jennings. When things get hairy in the Pocket for Rodgers and it will, I see him checking the ball down a lot to Starks or Grant; look for a lot of screens to combat Detroit's rush.

A big concern for Detroit in this game is starting slow. They have been doing this consistently all year and if it happens again on Thursday it'll be their undoing IMO; this isn't Carolina. They need to start fast, and avoid the kill shot that GB will be going for early in this game. The Packers are in revenge mode here and Rodgers and Co. want to put the young cocky Lions in their place; loved Mr. Suh's recent comments stating that the Lions are on the Packers level. This is a terrific matchup and overlooking or discounting the psychological side of this game is a mistake IMO; stats are obviously important but is there a clear advantage for Detroit here? GB's defensive stats against the pass are somewhat skewed as they've been in front double digits for most of the season and are teams going to run the ball down 14+ points? As always in big games, trunovers and mistakes are the key. This Lions team although very talented, is also very young and is prone to turnovers and is also one of the dumbest teams in the league when it comes to penalties. Detroit is ranked 26 in the league in penalty yardage and GB is ranked 1st.

[meader99]

SS numbers for the Bears are only slightly better than the Lions. Not polarized like the Lions and Green Bay. Bears defence is ranked 25th while having played a 2nd rated schedule. Lions are 9th having played a 6th rated schedule. I will leave the math to you. Green Bay has the 30th ranked defense having played the 30th ranked schedule. Slice it any way you want. Offer any opinion. Fact is, that ain't very good. Aaron Rodgers is that football team. If he encounters any glitch what so ever this weekend I am right and you are wrong. Hell I am wrong almost 40% of the time and I may be here. I have done my homework and I will let them play it out with 3 units on play on Detroit.

Detroit's defense is better than Green Bay and Chicago in terms of yardage allowed. The Green Bay and Chicago defenses are better in points allowed. Your right, the math is fairly simple.

[BiGTonyHAHA]

detroit only blowout loss was to chicago. they lost to atlanta 23-16 and lost sf 19-25. gb barely beat tb who is now a 4-6 team. tb has not scored 26 pts all year except for a 26-20 win against new orleans. and rodgers only gained 46 more passing yards on josh freeman... not brees not brady but freeman.. your an mvp candidate and only outgain a qb who is on a serious regression by only 46 yards. i think gb overall might by regressing just enough to lost a game or 2. not to mention they played min(2) stl(1) den(1) and carolina(1). not the toughest schedule imo

[dlunc3]

Regardless of all these stats being thrown around, gb is the better team and betting the det ml is throwing money in the garbage disposal

[BiGTonyHAHA]

GB is also playing its 3rd game in 10 days.

[freakydave]

GB is also playing its 3rd game in 10 days.

This is the biggest factor IMO

[arsenalxiv]

You have let all of these stats cloud your judgement my friend. If you have ever watched any of the packers games, you would see that they are not even playing half the time because its more of like flag football with these clowns. I think this will be the first game they will treat more like a playoff game and they will put the lions back in their place. Fade if you want but Packers will dismantle this Lions team at home just like what the 49ers, Falcons and Bears did earlier. If you think the Packs cant do what these teams have done, you obviously are oblivious to what the Packers can do. BOL either way. Just hate to say "I told you so"

[freakydave]

Billy great thread -Even though I know your right I will still bet small on GB just for entertainment.
On the Handicapping side of it what are your thoughts on best being out? I don't think Smith is striking fear in the hearts of the Packers D.

[dlunc3]

GB is also playing its 3rd game in 10 days.

Lol det is playing its 3rd game in 11 days... Yea that 24 hour difference is really gonna play a huge factor in this game