[Brp27345]

I tried to get this linked to NFL... but hasn't been done yet... so I will just start a thread in here as well...

Rules are simple... the strategy is to bet all games where I am getting +150 ML or better... and the spread is at 6.5 or under when betting the spread...

I bet both sides of the game... and let it play itself out...

When I get a loss using this system... I go to level 2 on just that bet... to cover up the losses... since the odds of a game losing both ways have been calculated by me to be 20%... the odds of losing 3 games in a row is 0.8%... so going 3 levels to recoup losses is something I will be willing to do...

That's about it...

[Brp27345]

Got an immediate and overwhelming amount of hate for this when I posted my NCAAF plays yesterday... but here are my results thus far... Now that I have some results... I'm guessing not quite as much in here... well maybe at least... haha

Overall Results

18-20 (7 Wins - 1 Loss)

+$3,800

[Brp27345]

Plays 1/2 (Push) +$10
Plays 3/4 West Virginia ML (Win) +$610
Plays 5/6 (Push)
Plays 7/8 (Push)
Plays 9/10 Kansas State ML (Win) +$800
Plays 11/12 (Push)
Plays 13/14 (Push)
Plays 15/16 (Push)
Plays 17/18 Oregon ML (Win) +$520
Plays 19/20 (Loss) -$2,000
Plays 21/22 (Push)
Plays 23/24 New Mexico ML (Win) +$1,380
Plays 25/26 New Mexico St ML(Win) +$1,250
Plays 27/28 (Push)
Plays 29/30 Denver Broncos ML (Win) +$590
Plays 31/32 (Push)
Plays 33/34 (Push)
Plays 35/36 Tennessee Titans ML (Win) +640
Plays 37/38 (Push)

[Brp27345]

2 pending plays left...

Bet #39 - Seattle Seahawks +265 (BoDog) - $1,000 to win $2,650

Bet #40 - Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) -110 (Bookmaker) - $1,100 to win $1,000

[Brp27345]

and...

Bet #41 - New York Giants +190 (Bet Online) - $1,000 to win $1,900

Bet #42 - San Fran 49ers (-4) +102 (Bookmaker) - $1,000 to win $1,020

[BernardMadoff]

Again Move that number to 3, the NFL is definitely not the league to be going up to 6.5, youre going to get middled alot bud, just trying to help.

[Brp27345]

comments and thoughts... bring em on...

[mlb]

so u play the spread of the favorite and the moneyline of the dog?

[mlb]

oops .. yeah wasnt loaded yet when i typed it

[loopydude11]

nice idea, so either you come out basically even or gain a bunch from the ML. good luck i'll be watching!

[Brp27345]

nice idea, so either you come out basically even or gain a bunch from the ML. good luck i'll be watching!

Thanks man... although don't forget that I can lose both bet's as well... option #3... haha

[Brp27345]

Marshawn Lynch... Seattle Seahawks... 'Nough Said...


Overall Results

20-22 (8 Wins - 1 Loss)

+$5,350


Plays 1/2 (Push) +$10
Plays 3/4 West Virginia ML (Win) +$610
Plays 5/6 (Push)
Plays 7/8 (Push)
Plays 9/10 Kansas State ML (Win) +$800
Plays 11/12 (Push)
Plays 13/14 (Push)
Plays 15/16 (Push)
Plays 17/18 Oregon ML (Win) +$520
Plays 19/20 (Loss) -$2,000
Plays 21/22 (Push)
Plays 23/24 New Mexico ML (Win) +$1,380
Plays 25/26 New Mexico St ML(Win) +$1,250
Plays 27/28 (Push)
Plays 29/30 Denver Broncos ML (Win) +$590
Plays 31/32 (Push)
Plays 33/34 (Push)
Plays 35/36 Tennessee Titans ML (Win) +640
Plays 37/38 (Push)
Plays 39/40 Seattle Seahawks ML (Win) +1,550
Plays 41/42 (Push)

[dshaffe4]

hey man this is a pretty good idea. i just calculated all the nfl and college weeks, if all u did was bet any nfl game at -5.5 or lower and any college game at -6 or lower and using a standard +150 moneyline, u would be at +22.5 units for the year. now thats not betting level 2 or 3 and only using a +150 moneyline where in actaulity most moneylines will be way above that so u would definitely come out with more units. in week 5 of the college football season, i calculated a +6.5 unit profit, that was by far the best week between the 2 leagues. so for all the haters out there, screw em, cause u know what your doing and im about to start the same thing for basketball as well. what do you think a good spread number is for basketball? thanks man

[Brp27345]

hey man this is a pretty good idea. i just calculated all the nfl and college weeks, if all u did was bet any nfl game at -5.5 or lower and any college game at -6 or lower and using a standard +150 moneyline, u would be at +22.5 units for the year. now thats not betting level 2 or 3 and only using a +150 moneyline where in actaulity most moneylines will be way above that so u would definitely come out with more units. in week 5 of the college football season, i calculated a +6.5 unit profit, that was by far the best week between the 2 leagues. so for all the haters out there, screw em, cause u know what your doing and im about to start the same thing for basketball as well. what do you think a good spread number is for basketball? thanks man

Thanks man for looking that up... I knew the season was profitable already... but I wasn't 100% sure of the exact number... and btw for a more accurate estimate of average payout odds I would say you are more looking at somewhere between +170 and +180... and the level 2 and level 3 thing I believe can only make it more profitable mathematically...

In regards to this working with basketball... I tried to find a number to work off of... but was highly unsuccessful... It would be great if you can find one... but I feel that there just might be too many games that end by a point for it to work in basketball... If you figure it out though... get back to me... I would guess a number between 4-7 would make the most sense as well...

and your right... screw all the haters!!!

[Brp27345]

Bet #43 - Bowling Green +230 (5 Dimes) - $1,000 to win $2,300

Bet #44 - Ohio (-6.5) -110 (Bookmaker) - $1,100 to win $1,000

[Brp27345]

gonna hold off on the double up bet from the Penn St. game until a better situation arises for me...

[dshaffe4]

hey man, just looking at some of the early basketball games so far, i guess a good number to start with would be anything from a pick to -5 as long as your getting a better moneyline on the underdog than what your laying on the favorite(usually -110). but this is early on so we could probably open it up to -6 or -7 once the lines start getting sharper later in the year. can you explain to me what you mean when you go to level 2 or 3, so if both of your bets lose, do you just keep doubling up on the next bets till you hit the underdog? preciate it man!

[LeagueCapper]

What do you mean by level 2 and 3 exactly

[4TH AND STUPID]

where were all your plays prior to play 38 posted

also how come you never aknowledge the 10 or 20 dollars loss from laying the -110 or -120 juice on the favorite and resulting in the favorite covering and the underdog ML losing

[4TH AND STUPID]

i think you need to aknowledge post 18 and 19 before you are taken serisouly.

[Brp27345]

where were all your plays prior to play 38 posted also how come you never aknowledge the 10 or 20 dollars loss from laying the -110 or -120 juice on the favorite and resulting in the favorite covering and the underdog ML losing

ok... well 1st off look in the NCAAF forum... and you will see all of my plays prior to play #38 posted...

Secondly I do take the juice into consideration with every bet I make...

See the Seahawks winning at +265 odds... and me taking $1,550 in wins... obviously subtracting $1,100 (-110) in losses...

If you mean I don't take losses when the favorite covers and the ML dog loses... that's because there aren't any there 4th and stupid (very fitting name) just playing... because the ML dog play is always $1,000 even to win at +odds... and the favorite covering is always a bet to win $1,000... thus breaking even...

Taken seriously now?

[earlsnake07]

Very interested in following this.....line has moved to -7 for tonights game or I would follow. GL!

[BigDan]

what do you think a good spread number is for basketball? thanks man

while i think this is a great idea for FB (hell it may even be for nba, no idea) but college hoops you are better off playing the dog on the ml and taking the points (if you can pick college hoops gms that is), never really tracked it but college hoops is my gambling sport of choice and id venture to say that the spread comes into play much more in this sport than it does in nfl where it only like 17% of the time i believe.. any dog i play getting less than +7 i play the ml so id image that be the number to look at but as i said i think you will find the number comes into play much more w ncaa hoops than nfl or college fb..

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Interesting....I'll be checking in!

[firehoyt]

So does the Jets/Broncos game fit the system?

[firehoyt]

I'm guessing it does fit the system but my only worry is the Jets covering the 6. If it were a better team playing it might be worth it. It's just the Jets (and Sanchez) sucks ass. I could see this endin in the jets winning by a field goal. What to do, what to do!

[Brp27345]

Bet #45 - Denver Broncos +248 (Pinnacle) - $1,000 to win $2,480

]Bet #46 - NY Jets (-6) -110 (Pinnacle) - $1,100 to win $1,000

Sorry I couldn't get online to post the game in time... but clearly it fit the system***

Jesus Tebow sure is making me some money...

[Brp27345]

Overall Results

9-2

+$4,630


Plays 1/2 (Push) +$10
Plays 3/4 West Virginia ML (Win) +$610
Plays 5/6 (Push)
Plays 7/8 (Push)
Plays 9/10 Kansas State ML (Win) +$800
Plays 11/12 (Push)
Plays 13/14 (Push)
Plays 15/16 (Push)
Plays 17/18 Oregon ML (Win) +$520
Plays 19/20 (Loss) -$2,000
Plays 21/22 (Push)
Plays 23/24 New Mexico ML (Win) +$1,380
Plays 25/26 New Mexico St ML(Win) +$1,250
Plays 27/28 (Push)
Plays 29/30 Denver Broncos ML (Win) +$590
Plays 31/32 (Push)
Plays 33/34 (Push)
Plays 35/36 Tennessee Titans ML (Win) +640
Plays 37/38 (Push)
Plays 39/40 Seattle Seahawks ML (Win) +1,550
Plays 41/42 (Push)
Plays 43/44 (Loss) -$2,100
Plays 45/46 Denver Broncos ML (Win) +$1,380

[clazzi]

How come you didn't go level 2 on 45/46 after the loss on 43/44? Assuming level 2 means doubling up.

Very interesting stuff. Good luck!