1. 10-17-11 07:00 PM #1
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Do Colts Have a Chance to Win SU This Week???

    Im debating putting the saints in a 13 point teaser



    has there ever been a situation where an 0-6 team beat a great team in NFL history???
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  2. 10-17-11 07:03 PM #2
    BettingWizard
    BettingWizard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-09
    Posts: 6,522
    Betpoints: 102

    colts winning
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  3. 10-17-11 07:04 PM #3
    rwd201
    rwd201's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-11
    Posts: 517
    Betpoints: 168

    The saints might have thrown that game vs TB or tried to shave points and failed who knows
    but there in no position to lose outright this week @home
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  4. 10-17-11 07:05 PM #4
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by BettingWizard View Post
    colts winning
    Yea u laugh until you realize the fukking saints lost 2 games last year by double digits to the browns and cardinals (one by 13 at home)


    seriously though, what are the chances of the colts winning this game SU?? Is it less than 10 percent??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  5. 10-17-11 07:05 PM #5
    Goat Milk
    Goat Milk's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 03-24-10
    Posts: 25,838
    Betpoints: 10176

    why are you posting this on Monday? No one cares until Friday lol
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  6. 10-17-11 07:06 PM #6
    BettingWizard
    BettingWizard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-09
    Posts: 6,522
    Betpoints: 102

    3%...saints had an off year last year
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  7. 10-17-11 07:07 PM #7
    rwd201
    rwd201's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-11
    Posts: 517
    Betpoints: 168

    BTW
    who you got tonight brah
    miami+6.5 or NYJ-6.5
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  8. 10-17-11 10:11 PM #8
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    so what's the consensus here?? colts don't have better than 5% chance to win right??
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  9. 10-17-11 10:14 PM #9
    rwd201
    rwd201's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-18-11
    Posts: 517
    Betpoints: 168

    they have an 11.72% chance of wining
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  10. 10-17-11 10:15 PM #10
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by rwd201 View Post
    they have an 11.72% chance of wining

    srs???
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  11. 10-17-11 10:41 PM #11
    GunShard
    Invest In Ethereum And Bitcoin
    GunShard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-05-10
    Posts: 9,983
    Betpoints: 1920

    The Colts lost to the Saints with Peyton Manning at the super bowl.

    Just imagine without Peyton Manning and at the New Orleans super dome.

    Saints money line is the best play here.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  12. 10-17-11 11:07 PM #12
    EBDOGGN
    EBDOGGN's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-21-09
    Posts: 563
    Betpoints: 130

    dont quote me on this but i heard of a stat a few days ago. that when an nfl team is a double digit dog, they've only won straight up a number of times in the last ten years. literally like 10 or less wins.. sure they'll cover the spread. But read re read this post clearly. WHEN AN NFL TEAM IS A DOUBLE DIGIT DOG, THEY HAVE ONLY WON A NUMBER OF TIMES (10 OR LESS) IN THE LAST 10 YEARS.

    Take it for what its worth..

    If anyone can bust this stat. please update us asap. I would hate for this statement to be false.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  13. 10-17-11 11:22 PM #13
    loopydude11
    meh
    loopydude11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-23-09
    Posts: 1,702
    Betpoints: 339

    Brah this is the easiest play to put in a 13 pt teaser of the week, -1 on sunday night football in the superdome is unquestionably a lock
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  14. 10-18-11 01:17 AM #14
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by EBDOGGN View Post
    dont quote me on this but i heard of a stat a few days ago. that when an nfl team is a double digit dog, they've only won straight up a number of times in the last ten years. literally like 10 or less wins.. sure they'll cover the spread. But read re read this post clearly. WHEN AN NFL TEAM IS A DOUBLE DIGIT DOG, THEY HAVE ONLY WON A NUMBER OF TIMES (10 OR LESS) IN THE LAST 10 YEARS.

    Take it for what its worth..

    If anyone can bust this stat. please update us asap. I would hate for this statement to be false.

    actually, it seems like the number is much lower


    This article - covers.com/articles/columns/articles.aspx?theArt=249757 - claims that only six double-digit underdogs have won outright in the last 20 years.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  15. 10-18-11 05:03 AM #15
    mlfan
    mlfan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-16-11
    Posts: 21
    Betpoints: 76

    past 10 years, double digit dogs have a 42-255-0 straight up record.

    http://sportsdatabase.com/nfl.py/que...1&submit=query
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  16. 10-18-11 05:12 AM #16
    Stevedore
    Stevedore's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-09-10
    Posts: 1,218
    Betpoints: 4435

    Best thing to happen for your play was the Saints lost last week. After 3 consecutive games on the road, the Saints are in a great spot to win and win BIG!.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  17. 10-18-11 07:44 AM #17
    EXpertcapper
    EXpertcapper's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-05-10
    Posts: 5,026
    Betpoints: 732

    colts will keep it close but saints win but not cover
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  18. 10-18-11 05:29 PM #18
    BettingWizard
    BettingWizard's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-28-09
    Posts: 6,522
    Betpoints: 102

    saints win by 28 points. Painter has no chance in the dome
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  19. 10-18-11 06:52 PM #19
    D3 Mighty Ducks
    D3 Mighty Ducks's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-17-09
    Posts: 11,933
    Betpoints: 782

    Naw the Colts have very little chance of winning on Sunday night in NO. Jacksonville has a small chance of beating the Ravens I think.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  20. 10-18-11 07:05 PM #20
    brahmabull117
    brahmabull117's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-08-10
    Posts: 8,622
    Betpoints: 42

    Quote Originally Posted by D3 Mighty Ducks View Post
    Naw the Colts have very little chance of winning on Sunday night in NO. Jacksonville has a small chance of beating the Ravens I think.

    I actually think the jags have a much lesser chance of beating the ravens than the colts do



    the problem with a team like new orleans is that brees can throw 4 picks at anytime and lose a game in which the saints outgain a badteam by 200 yards (you saw it last year both vs arizona and vs cleveland)



    the ravens won't allow their QB to play like that because they will just take the ball out of his hands and win with defense and the run game
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  21. 10-18-11 08:33 PM #21
    Romanov
    Diapason Knells
    Romanov's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-08-10
    Posts: 4,137
    Betpoints: 13

    According to Pinny, Colts have a 12.1% chance of winning SU

    Brahma, heres how you do:

    100/(704+100) = Colts unadjusted probability of winning = .123
    900/(900+100) = Saints unadjusted probability of winning = .9

    .9 +.1234 /= 1, so we know these probs must be adjusted to = 1 so add them:

    .9+.1234 = 1.0234

    Then take the teams unadjusted from the total...

    .1234/1.0234 = 12.1% = Colts prob of winning SU according to Pinny
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  22. 10-18-11 08:36 PM #22
    ryan1200
    ryan1200's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-03-09
    Posts: 21
    Betpoints: 60

    Sorry... They're already in Andrew Luck Mode
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
  23. 10-18-11 08:37 PM #23
    Statsational
    Update your status
    Statsational's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-27-11
    Posts: 5
    Betpoints: 728

    I was checking the numbers a couple of weeks ago for my survivor pool and only 3 teams have won SU in the last 16 years as a 14 pt dog. It was 14 or 14.5 I do not recall as I do not have my database on this machine. I can double check that for you. I think the last one to lose was Pitt in 09 to Oak at home. I remember the game vividly because my entry in a big survivor pool for my grandmother got knocked out that day.
    Reply With Quote Reply With Quote
Top
« Previous Thread | NFL Betting | Next Thread »