[Vegasjack2]

Investigating The Most Important Stat In NFL Betting

I recently got an email from an Oddsmaker who I have worked with and now swap information with. He passed along a statistic to me that he has recently begun tracking. He claims that this is the single most important stat in determining who wins week to week in the NFL.

What is the stat? Passing Yards? Rushing Yards? Turnover Ratio?

No, no and no.

The oddsmaker in discussion has found that the single most important stat in predicting the winning team in the NFL is Pass Yards Per Attempt.

Disappointed?

I know it may not seem like the most exciting stat, and some of you may have never heard about it before. For those of you who have heard about it, you more then likely have not paid attention to it. When I received his email, I admit, I was very sceptical. I did not believe the results he was boasting, but sure enough after researching myself, I found out that this is amazingly accurate in predicting the winning team.

So far this season, the team who has more Pass Yards Per Attempt has gone…

38-10 (.791%) ATS +$2,700 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
42-6 (.875%) SU +$4,125 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

Pretty incredible stuff. So far though, these numbers are well below pace of last season.

410-102 (.798%) ATS +$29,780 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)
500-12 (.976%) SU +$64,450 (TO WIN $100 PER GAME)

I have yet to back track another year as I was unable to find accurate moneylines for the games in question. I must admit that these numbers are absolutely mind blowing. Now I have been questioning how this could possibly be. For one, the NFL has become a very pass happy league. More passers are on pace to break all time records then ever before. In the first three weeks there have been numerous passing records shattered. The NFL has somewhat turned into a CFL pass first type league. Since the style of play is so vastly different in present day NFL, it would make sense that the team gaining more yards per pass would have an easier time moving the ball down the field and a easier time scoring the football.

Looking at the wins so far this season in which this stat has reigned true is truly amazing to me. Buffalo (+300) over New England in Week Three. Tennessee (+210) over Baltimore in Week Two. New York Giants (+350) over Philadelphia in Week Three. How about the biggest difference in Yards Per Pass Attempt? Detroit +8.2 YPPA against Kansas City in Week Two. Sure enough, this was the biggest blow-out so far this season (Detroit 48 Kansas City 3).

Now obviously there is no way to simply bet your money pregame on the team which will have a better YPPA, but this is a factor to definitely think about next time your placing a bet. Here is a list of the games this week involving some of the best YPPA to date this season.

Top Five:

#1 New England (9.9) -4 at. #17 Oakland (7.0)
#2 Dallas (8.7) -1 vs. #7 Detroit (8.1)
#3 Green Bay -12.5 (8.6) vs. #25 Denver (5.7)
#4 Houston -3.5 (8.6) vs. #5 Pittsburgh (8.4)

Upset Pick:

Arizona +1 vs. New York. Arizona and New York have identical YPPA so far this season at 7.9. However, at home Arizona averages 10.9 (1st Overall) while New York goes for just 6.8 on the road (22nd overall). Factor this in with the massive let down situation vs. the get up game for Arizona, you may be in luck with the Cardinals this weekend.

Biggest Difference:

Green Bay -12.5 vs. Denver. Green Bay holds the biggest advantage this week over an opponent. Not only is Green Bay 23 spots higher in the YPPA standings, but they hold the biggest difference in YPPA (3.0). At home this season Green Bay has averaged 8.5 YPPA. Denver on the road has gone for just 4.4 a difference of 4.1 YPPA. Don’t be surprised if the Packers run up the scoreboard against the woeful Broncos this weekend.

I am not basing my wagers solely on this by any means, but this is definitely something to keep an eye on and maybe eventually something to factor into your weekly handicapping.

-VJ

[bigsmitty]

Interesting. Thanks for the info.

[punkbhstl]

Thanks for the info! Appreciate it.

[Rabbitbrew]

Are you including sacks (and therefore negative yards) as pass attempts?

[Roadtrip635]

You may be surprised which active, actually modern era QB tops the YPA list


1. Otto Graham+ 9.0 1946-1955 cle
2. Sid Luckman+ 8.4 1939-1950 chi
3. Norm Van Brocklin+ 8.2 1949-1960 2TM
4. Tony Romo (30) 8.1 2004-2011 dal
Ben Roethlisberger (28) 8.1 2004-2011 pit
6. Philip Rivers (29) 8.0 2004-2011 sdg
Steve Young+ 8.0 1985-1999 2TM
Aaron Rodgers (27) 8.0 2005-2011 gnb
9. Kurt Warner 7.9 1998-2009 3TM
Ed Brown 7.9 1954-1965 3TM
11. Bart Starr+ 7.8 1956-1971 gnb
Bob Berry 7.8 1965-1975 2TM
Matt Schaub (29) 7.8 2004-2011 2TM
Johnny Unitas+ 7.8 1956-1973 2TM
15. Earl Morrall 7.7 1956-1976 6TM
Dan Fouts+ 7.7 1973-1987 sdg
Len Dawson+ 7.7 1957-1975 3TM
Roger Staubach+ 7.7 1969-1979 dal
19. Trent Green 7.6 1997-2008 4TM
Peyton Manning (34) 7.6 1998-2011 clt
Sonny Jurgensen+ 7.6 1957-1974 2TM
Daunte Culpepper 7.6 1999-2009

[EXhoosier10]

how does YPPA correlate game to game for each QB? team? If you are going to handicap games using this, you need to make sure this doesn't fluctuate game to game

[cowboyfan08]

Thinking gb blows denver out also!lot of jumping stands!thinkin place will be rockin!rodgers throws 5tds!

[GunShard]

I just checked the stats. This does not work if you compare the current 2011 YPA stats. I got 3 game losses on last weeks games when using this.

[lowroller]

In your top 5 you used overall PYPA, but in the Arizona pick you used Home PYPA....so which is more important/valuable?!

Are your win %s based on overall or home/away #s?

Also what about a team's DEFENSIVE PYPA? Wouldn't that come into play somewhere? After all....part of the reason a team has a high PYPA is because the defense is giving up the yards, right?

Arizona has only 1 home game under their belt...against Carolina...who rank 32nd in PYPA...the Giants rank 16th.

[wquine]

GB will win but denver is a likely backdoor here, not my fav play, but love the infos here, thanks.

[calmeat]

So i have made a system that takes this into considerations as well.
But i am using NY/A ▾ -- Net Yards gained per pass attempt
(minimum 14 attepts per scheduled game to qualify as leader)
(Passing Yards - Sack Yards) / (Passes Attempted + Times Sacked)

Also the main thing i am looking at is pts per play. taking the teams pts per play and avg it out with the league pts per play and then averaging it with the other teams pts per play allowed. I am tracking it now and first week (week2) it was 8-7-1 ATS last week it was 12-3-1. Hoping as more data is collected the better the system but we will see.

[lowroller]

Now if only we could PROJECT the yardage and attempts....

[Slykry]

Appreciate the information greatly...any link to where we can track this stat for each team for the season?

[4TH AND STUPID]

keep posting the plays vegasjack..... worth tracking

[Limey]

Appreciate the information greatly...any link to where we can track this stat for each team for the season?

Several decent NFL stats sites carry this stat, it's really not hard to find. Don't be lazy!

I think net yards-per-pass (eg, including the negative yardage from sacks) is more worthwhile than simple yards per pass which is often listed but doesn't include sacks.

[Demonata]

Would appreciate you posting more plays man. Good Thread.

[BlindBeggar]

SRS. Simple Rating System.

Check it out.

[BetGrinder]

Arizona didn't cover but the Packers won it easily

[mp5070]

[kfranz31]

good info..thanks

[PhillyFlyers]

According to ESPN, Indianapolis is dead last in the NFL in Yards Per Pass Attempt ranking #32 with a 5.0 average and Tampa Bay is not much better ranked at #25 with a 6.3 average. Since these stats are so close, with a difference of just 1.3 yards separating them, does this mean tonight's game will be closer than the 10 point spread Tampa is laying on Indy?


http://espn.go.com/nfl/statistics/te...PerPassAttempt

[Pokerjoe]

This is so colossally stupid. I can't believe people are saying "good info" and "appreciate the information."

It's retarded.

Here, try this one on: bet on the team that scores more points than its opponent after factoring in the spread. 100% ATS last year! This year, too.

[PhillyFlyers]

This is so colossally stupid. I can't believe people are saying "good info" and "appreciate the information."

It's retarded.

Here, try this one on: bet on the team that scores more points than its opponent after factoring in the spread. 100% ATS last year! This year, too.

Can you please give an example of what you mean by factoring in the spread?

[Kindred]

This is so colossally stupid. I can't believe people are saying "good info" and "appreciate the information."

It's retarded.

Here, try this one on: bet on the team that scores more points than its opponent after factoring in the spread. 100% ATS last year! This year, too.

Yeah the OP sounded like an informercial for a tout selling some scam system.

It's not like yards per pass is some sabermetrics new type of stat, pretty sure you're not finding any value the market missed with this stat.

The funniest part is supposedly an oddsmaker shared this stat...then obviously they use it to make the spreads and you wouldn't be able to use it to beat them

[ebbearsfb1]

guy tries to help and gets bashed... gotta love sbr

[PhillyFlyers]

Seems the OP is supported in his theory.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007...in-part-1.html

[Kindred]

Can you please give an example of what you mean by factoring in the spread?

means teams that covered the spread already (outscored opponents by x points-the spread for that game) a positive number just means they covered the spread..100% ATS but means nothing for next game or for anything else for that matter.

[Kindred]

guy tries to help and gets bashed... gotta love sbr

who bashed him? I'm the one trying to help you guys so you don't lose your shirt. post didn't make sense, an oddsmaker is sharing info with a gambler and tells him a simple little stat that will win you millions that the oddsmakers don't use when making the line? He's the oddsmaker, if it's so important why aren't they using it?

Simple logic. and I think poker joe was bashing everyone else who posted in the thread, not the guy who posted the thread

[Kindred]

Seems the OP is supported in his theory.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2007...in-part-1.html

What does that site have to do with the orignial poster? Also that site looks interesting, but I see nothing about gambling or the spread just predicting winners. ATS is different than predicting SU winners, but I do agree with one article big time on there, coach's being too timid. I hate how conservative coaches are in the NFL, they play to "not lose" they don't play to win. Don't believe it, just look how often a team scores in teh last two minutes of the first half. In the "two minute offense" they open it up and are often able to score. Rest of the game they are conservative and less scoring. Makes no sense to me, they should be playing to win.

As for the original poster, he is a tout, or at least a tout wannabe:
http://members.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI...rid=vegasjack2

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This tout is peddling his picks on ******* ebay, can't even afford a website

And half the people posted in this thread probably his ghost accounts. He also posted teh same bullshit at covers and RX that he posted here.

And his simple little "system" is more a result of winning and covering than predictive of which team is going to cover the spread going forward. I'm not a big stats guy but that's my opinion of it.

[McBa1n]

This is so colossally stupid. I can't believe people are saying "good info" and "appreciate the information."

It's retarded.

Here, try this one on: bet on the team that scores more points than its opponent after factoring in the spread. 100% ATS last year! This year, too.

Dude, you should publish a book with your system! HOLY CRAP that's genious. I never thought of it that way. Haha, thanks for pointing out the obvious. Good stuff.

[Hustler11]

I don't think making a model based solely on this stat is correct. I do think this is important info though. PokerJoe, stick to poker friend.

[TheCentaur]

how does YPPA correlate game to game for each QB? team? If you are going to handicap games using this, you need to make sure this doesn't fluctuate game to game

I second that. Of course a winning team will pass well that game. How can you predict who has highest pass yards per attempt pregame though? I know another stat that correlates to the winning team. TDs per game.

[RudyRuetigger]

I don't think making a model based solely on this stat is correct. I do think this is important info though. PokerJoe, stick to poker friend.

Guy signed up this month, 7 days ago and is putting down pokerjoe

hey pal, if you post good shit for the next 20years here, you might catch up to him

until then, i dont think you know wtf you are saying

[Hustler11]

Guy signed up this month, 7 days ago and is putting down pokerjoe

hey pal, if you post good shit for the next 20years here, you might catch up to him

until then, i dont think you know wtf you are saying

Just because I signed up on this forum doesn't mean I haven't been doing this awhile. You used the wrong stat. Sign up date on a forum has no correlation to my knowledge in betting. Sorry

[p19101]

means teams that covered the spread already (outscored opponents by x points-the spread for that game) a positive number just means they covered the spread..100% ATS but means nothing for next game or for anything else for that matter.

^This is the only post that makes sence in this thread