[Baath887]

Hey guys,


So I'm trying to figure out the link between the juice that the books charge on favorites and the probability of those plays winning. For instance, on average, what do you guys think is the (average) probability of a -130 play winning? What about -150? -200? It could be any play, of any of the 4 major leagues in North America (MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA). Thoughts?

[TheMetsSuck]

those stats are worthless. -200 fave mb wins 66% of the time id guess. all about picking your spots. best advice i can give is quit gambling all together if u can. if you can keep it just a hobby for spare cash go ahead

[STAX]

handicap them yourself, meaning, give each team a percentage on winning, and then compare to the books. if the difference is higher than the juice, you have value one way or the other. If your handicap is the same as the books, or within the juice, dont bet it.

[vividjohn45]

Hey guys,


So I'm trying to figure out the link between the juice that the books charge on favorites and the probability of those plays winning. For instance, on average, what do you guys think is the (average) probability of a -130 play winning? What about -150? -200? It could be any play, of any of the 4 major leagues in North America (MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA). Thoughts?

i try never to bet juice in baseball. I had sf today 133. Kc 101 and seattle -1.5 145. Twins 145.. sf and twins did cover the ats but i dont like the juice. Still made .46u for the day in mlb. Professional cappers will give a fav at -140 cuz they need the win for their record. But. The fav -1.5 is the better play ,

[timbaland99]

Is this what you are looking for?



How to convert a moneyline to a percentage for a favorite:


Amount you need to bet to win a dollar / (Amount you need to bet to win a dollar + $1) = Favorites Percentage


Let’s say the favorite has a -400 moneyline. In this case you need to bet $4 to win $1. The formula would look like this: $4 / ($4 + $1) and it is equivalent to 80%.


How to convert a moneyline to a percentage for an underdog:


1/(Amount won when wagering $1 + $1) = Underdogs Percentage


Let’s say the underdog has a +300 moneyline. In this case if you bet $1 you’ll win $3. The formula would look like this: 1/($3 +$1) and it is equivalent to 25%.

[JohnGalt2341]

Hey guys,


So I'm trying to figure out the link between the juice that the books charge on favorites and the probability of those plays winning. For instance, on average, what do you guys think is the (average) probability of a -130 play winning? What about -150? -200? It could be any play, of any of the 4 major leagues in North America (MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA). Thoughts?

Think about it this way... an actual coin flip has -110 juice. To break even on -110 juice you have to win 52.38% of your bets. If it's Heads 50% of the time then that's 2.38% less than the juice. So... if you subtract 2.38% from your juice you'll probably have a pretty good answer. So -130 would be 54.14%, -150 would be 57.62%, and -200 would be 64.29%.

[Baath887]

those stats are worthless. -200 fave mb wins 66% of the time id guess. all about picking your spots. best advice i can give is quit gambling all together if u can. if you can keep it just a hobby for spare cash go ahead

What the heck? Why should I quit? I was only looking for an answer to my question, did not need someone to tell me to quit all this lol

[Baath887]

Is this what you are looking for?



How to convert a moneyline to a percentage for a favorite:


Amount you need to bet to win a dollar / (Amount you need to bet to win a dollar + $1) = Favorites Percentage


Let’s say the favorite has a -400 moneyline. In this case you need to bet $4 to win $1. The formula would look like this: $4 / ($4 + $1) and it is equivalent to 80%.


How to convert a moneyline to a percentage for an underdog:


1/(Amount won when wagering $1 + $1) = Underdogs Percentage


Let’s say the underdog has a +300 moneyline. In this case if you bet $1 you’ll win $3. The formula would look like this: 1/($3 +$1) and it is equivalent to 25%.

Wow that's exactly what I was looking for!! Thanks a lot man

[Baath887]

Think about it this way... an actual coin flip has -110 juice. To break even on -110 juice you have to win 52.38% of your bets. If it's Heads 50% of the time then that's 2.38% less than the juice. So... if you subtract 2.38% from your juice you'll probably have a pretty good answer. So -130 would be 54.14%, -150 would be 57.62%, and -200 would be 64.29%.

Thanks man! And thanks to the other posters who helped also! However, using timbaland's formula, a -110 play would have a 52.38% probability of winning, right? (1.1/1.1+1) = 52.38%

[boeing power]

Is this what you are looking for?



How to convert a moneyline to a percentage for a favorite:


Amount you need to bet to win a dollar / (Amount you need to bet to win a dollar + $1) = Favorites Percentage


Let’s say the favorite has a -400 moneyline. In this case you need to bet $4 to win $1. The formula would look like this: $4 / ($4 + $1) and it is equivalent to 80%.


How to convert a moneyline to a percentage for an underdog:


1/(Amount won when wagering $1 + $1) = Underdogs Percentage


Let’s say the underdog has a +300 moneyline. In this case if you bet $1 you’ll win $3. The formula would look like this: 1/($3 +$1) and it is equivalent to 25%.

I consider myself a "veteran" lol......but never knew that calculation.

thanks.

[tto827]

This thread shows exactly why the books will always win.

Good post Timbaland, sad that it helped as many people as it did though, that should be betting 101 common knowledge.

[tb1984]

i try never to bet juice in baseball. I had sf today 133. Kc 101 and seattle -1.5 145. Twins 145.. sf and twins did cover the ats but i dont like the juice. Still made .46u for the day in mlb. Professional cappers will give a fav at -140 cuz they need the win for their record. But. The fav -1.5 is the better play ,

Betting dogs or favorites, you always pay juice. Betting +1000, +2000, +120, -600, -200,... does not matter. I think you mean high/low priced bets.

[Bill Dozer]

These are the right questions to ask. This is the first step in understanding sports betting as a market instead of as gambling. So now you know a -130 has X chance of winning but those odds are obviously not going to payout over time at that price. Thats why the house wins. Whats next? Get that pick at -120...but how?

[Baath887]

These are the right questions to ask. This is the first step in understanding sports betting as a market instead of as gambling. So now you know a -130 has X chance of winning but those odds are obviously not going to payout over time at that price. Thats why the house wins. Whats next? Get that pick at -120...but how?

Thanks, I hope my question helped other guys on the forum as well!

[JohnGalt2341]

Thanks man! And thanks to the other posters who helped also! However, using timbaland's formula, a -110 play would have a 52.38% probability of winning, right? (1.1/1.1+1) = 52.38%

Not exactly. The -110(52.38%) is the break even point. Lets say you were given 11 sides on a 20 sided die. Your probability of winning would be 55% regardless of what the Line is. If the line is -122(on rolling 1 to 11 on a 20 sided die) or less then your expected value is positive. However, if the line is -123 or more then your expected value is negative.

An easy way to figure out implied probability is to first figure out what the No-Vig line is. You can do this by going to the Arbitrage Calculator found here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tool...ge-calculator/ Leave Bet #1 as $100. Plug in the underdog line on line #1 and plug in the favorite line on line #2. Click calculate and Bet #2 will give you a number. Put a minus in front of that number and you will have the No-Vig line. Now that you have this you can go to the Odds Converter found here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/odds-converter/ Plug in the number you have and click convert. This will give you realistic implied probability assuming that the lines are sharp.

[JohnGalt2341]

Just for the hell of it I plugged in your original #'s into the Arbitrage Calculator and then the Odds Converter. What I came up with wasn't too far off from what I posted in post #6 but these #'s are even more accurate. This is what I came up with:

-130 Break even point is 56.52%. Actual probability is 54.27%.
-150 Break even point is 60%. Actual probability is 57.98%.
-200 Break even point is 66.67%. Actual probability is 64.67%.

Once again this is assuming that all the lines are Sharp. A better example would be to use a 100 sided die. If you were to get #'s 1 to 50 your juice would be -110. However, if you were to get #'s 1 to 58 your juice would be -150. Either way your expected value is negative.

[Baath887]

Just for the hell of it I plugged in your original #'s into the Arbitrage Calculator and then the Odds Converter. What I came up with wasn't too far off from what I posted in post #6 but these #'s are even more accurate. This is what I came up with:

-130 Break even point is 56.52%. Actual probability is 54.27%.
-150 Break even point is 60%. Actual probability is 57.98%.
-200 Break even point is 66.67%. Actual probability is 64.67%.

Once again this is assuming that all the lines are Sharp. A better example would be to use a 100 sided die. If you were to get #'s 1 to 50 your juice would be -110. However, if you were to get #'s 1 to 58 your juice would be -150. Either way your expected value is negative.

Thanks again, but how did you calculate the actual probabilities? For instance, when using the odds converter, if I plug in -200, I get 66.67%... how did you find the 64.67%?

[JohnGalt2341]

Thanks again, but how did you calculate the actual probabilities? For instance, when using the odds converter, if I plug in -200, I get 66.67%... how did you find the 64.67%?

First you have to figure out the No-Vig line by plugging the Lines of the Underdog and the Favorite at the Arbitrage Calculator. Leave Bet #1 as $100. In Line #1 put the Underdogs line. In Line #2 put the favorites Line. Hit calculate and Bet #2 will give you a number. Put a minus in front of this and you will have the No-Vig line. Now when you plug in the No-Vig line at the Odds Converter it will give you a realistic probability. As always... this is assuming that the lines you plugged in to the Arbitrage Calculator are sharp.

[timbaland99]

Wow that's exactly what I was looking for!! Thanks a lot man

glad I was able to help

[Baath887]

First you have to figure out the No-Vig line by plugging the Lines of the Underdog and the Favorite at the Arbitrage Calculator. Leave Bet #1 as $100. In Line #1 put the Underdogs line. In Line #2 put the favorites Line. Hit calculate and Bet #2 will give you a number. Put a minus in front of this and you will have the No-Vig line. Now when you plug in the No-Vig line at the Odds Converter it will give you a realistic probability. As always... this is assuming that the lines you plugged in to the Arbitrage Calculator are sharp.

Ok thanks, I know you explained this in your previous post, I just wanted to make sure I understood.