1. 03-14-17 05:35 AM #1
    Machine Choice
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    Machine Choice NCAA Tournament and Stepchild Tourneys Record Tracking

    Did not play in 2016
    Posted 12-6 record in 2015

    Starts tonight
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  2. 03-14-17 05:39 AM #2
    Machine Choice
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    3/14

    Kansas State (PK)

    $175 to win $159
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  3. 03-14-17 06:00 AM #3
    Machine Choice
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    Took a pass on Mount St Mary's and New Orleans because they had different conf tourney formats and so it was harder to analyze them side by side.
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  4. 03-14-17 06:05 AM #4
    Machine Choice
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    Ingredients for the initial stages of Big Dance capping: performance in conf tourney, performance in road games, performance against similar competition considering the current point spread.

    Final ingredient is what I call the "Quality Wins Index." Take each teams # of wins against the Sagarin Top 25 and double it. Then add the number of wins against the Sagarin Top 50 (but don't double it). Take that total and divide it by: sum of doubled losses vs sagarin top 25 and losses vs top 50 (not doubled). For tonight's game K States index is much higher than Wake Forest. I don't have it in front of me, but I think it's K State 44% and Wake 18%.
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  5. 03-14-17 08:52 AM #5
    Machine Choice
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  6. 03-14-17 08:53 AM #6
    Machine Choice
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    I will only cap and bet stepchild tournaments (CBI, NIT, etc) on nights when there is no Big Dance action.
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  7. 03-14-17 11:21 AM #7
    thetrinity
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    Bruce Weber scares me, the guy sucks.

    K State does appear to have a better team
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  8. 03-14-17 01:23 PM #8
    Grivas_Digeni
    Mini Horses FTW
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    Do you look at totals at all? 151.5 moved to 148.5 in this game, any leans at either number?
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  9. 03-14-17 03:33 PM #9
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Grivas_Digeni View Post
    Do you look at totals at all? 151.5 moved to 148.5 in this game, any leans at either number?
    I would take the over. I have K-State winning this game 78-76.
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  10. 03-14-17 03:34 PM #10
    Machine Choice
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    Other factors point to K State winning it by 4-5 points, but my personal model shows a 2-point victory.
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  11. 03-14-17 03:37 PM #11
    Machine Choice
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    I see the line is now KSU -2, I'm glad I jumped early.
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  12. 03-14-17 03:41 PM #12
    freeVICK
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    Good stuff machine, ill be tailing ya all tourney. Appreciate you sharing

    Lets make some money
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  13. 03-15-17 04:37 AM #13
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    3/14

    Kansas State (PK)

    $175 to win $159
    WIN

    1-0
    Starting bankroll: $6,107
    Current bankroll: $6,266
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  14. 03-15-17 05:19 AM #14
    Machine Choice
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    3/15




    PROVIDENCE +2.5
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  15. 03-15-17 05:20 AM #15
    Machine Choice
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    Predicted Score

    Providence 78
    Southern Cal 73
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  16. 03-15-17 05:21 AM #16
    Machine Choice
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    I'm not playing it, but over 140.5 also seems like an easy hit
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  17. 03-15-17 02:47 PM #17
    Machine Choice
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    3/15 Added play:

    UC Davis +4 (-115)

    $180 to win $157
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  18. 03-15-17 03:13 PM #18
    freeVICK
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    Nice win yesterday bro. How many units you got on providence?
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  19. 03-15-17 03:33 PM #19
    Machine Choice
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    Flat betting. No reason to fix what's not broke. Risking $175
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  20. 03-15-17 04:19 PM #20
    jalein
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    Flat betting. No reason to fix what's not broke. Risking $175
    smart management. #respect. Im on the other side of the UC Davis play, but with you on providence (point spread movement and sharp money strongly suggests NCCU). You have done good work over time. Thanks for what you do.
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  21. 03-15-17 04:19 PM #21
    jalein
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    just tried to throw you some points but couldnt
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  22. 03-15-17 04:57 PM #22
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by jalein View Post
    smart management. #respect. Im on the other side of the UC Davis play
    NC Central plays in absolutely the worst conference in Div 1 basketball. If that has prepared them for tonight's stage, then here...take my money.
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  23. 03-15-17 05:03 PM #23
    freeVICK
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    I like uc davis play. They have a Horace grant clone, goggles and all
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  24. 03-15-17 05:13 PM #24
    BNasty2
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    Machine, I agree 100% bro! With you on both plays.
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  25. 03-15-17 05:59 PM #25
    Aye J Mac
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    Goodluck onUC DAVIS. Are u playing providence as a lock??
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  26. 03-15-17 06:10 PM #26
    jalein
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    NC Central plays in absolutely the worst conference in Div 1 basketball. If that has prepared them for tonight's stage, then here...take my money.
    Not arguing with you even a little bit on the worst conference in the country. They did be Mizz this year...even though Mizz isnt strong this year.
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  27. 03-15-17 08:55 PM #27
    Machine Choice
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aye J Mac View Post
    Goodluck onUC DAVIS. Are u playing providence as a lock??
    Yes, if I hang the lock symbol. That's what it means. I rarely hang it.
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  28. 03-15-17 09:02 PM #28
    mackave
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    Took Prov ML, wonder if I should try and middle this live with like USC +8.5 or something.
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  29. 03-15-17 09:55 PM #29
    mackave
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    Slowly bleeding this big lead away, refs helping a tad bit.
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  30. 03-15-17 10:40 PM #30
    Aye J Mac
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    Quote Originally Posted by Machine Choice View Post
    Yes, if I hang the lock symbol. That's what it means. I rarely hang it.
    I'm glad I missed since u stated u won't play it
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  31. 03-16-17 07:17 AM #31
    Machine Choice
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    Ha, yeah I wish I had missed it too. I still think Providence would cover that game 70% of the time. They were up 17 at one point, and then....disappeared.
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  32. 03-16-17 01:58 PM #32
    Machine Choice
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  33. 03-16-17 03:00 PM #33
    Machine Choice
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    3/16

    Vandy -2

    $175 to win $159

    PREDICTED SCORE
    Vandy 67
    NW 61
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  34. 03-16-17 03:52 PM #34
    Machine Choice
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    3/16

    added: Saint Mary's -4

    $180 to win $157

    PREDICTED SCORE
    SMC 72
    VCU 62
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  35. 03-16-17 04:26 PM #35
    hondax123
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    Do you ever play 2h. I tailed vandy. Not sure how vandy full game will play out. Thanks. I see -4 2h vandy.
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