[HeeluvaGuy]

1-2 night. Southern Utah was 9-29 from 2 point range when 11-29 would have gotten at least a push. Oh well.

Thread: 55-48 (+4.26u)
Totals only: 53-42

[HeeluvaGuy]

One Friday night play:

6:30 EMU/Akron o146 -108
Normally I stay away from heavy three point shooting teams (Akron), but I like this over for a few reasons. First, Akron is a really good 3-point shooting team, especially at home where they're hitting over 40%. Second, EMU plays a lot of zone, which should lead to plenty of 3-point opportunities for Akron. Third, EMU got Ray Lee (3rd leading scorer) back last game from a two game suspension. He played limited minutes in that game, but his role should increase tonight. Pacewise I get 71 or 72 possessions, and with the offensive efficiencies here that should be enough to get us over 146. Kenpom has 64 possessions.

[doubledime]

One Friday night play:

6:30 EMU/Akron o146 -108
Normally I stay away from heavy three point shooting teams (Akron), but I like this over for a few reasons. First, Akron is a really good 3-point shooting team, especially at home where they're hitting over 40%. Second, EMU plays a lot of zone, which should lead to plenty of 3-point opportunities for Akron. Third, EMU got Ray Lee (3rd leading scorer) back last game from a two game suspension. He played limited minutes in that game, but his role should increase tonight. Pacewise I get 71 or 72 possessions, and with the offensive efficiencies here that should be enough to get us over 146. Kenpom has 64 possessions.

Outstanding analysis

[HeeluvaGuy]

One more on further review:

7:00 Canisius/Quinnipiac u163.5 -110
Going against my mode here. I get 75 possessions for this one, but I think it could be fewer. At that pace these two would have to be extremely efficient to get over 163. Hot shooting by Canisius could be a problem, but that's a risk I will take here where even an 85-78 type game would be a winner. Kenpom has 73 possessions.

[doubledime]

One more on further review:

7:00 Canisius/Quinnipiac u163.5 -110
Going against my mode here. I get 75 possessions for this one, but I think it could be fewer. At that pace these two would have to be extremely efficient to get over 163. Hot shooting by Canisius could be a problem, but that's a risk I will take here where even an 85-78 type game would be a winner. Kenpom has 73 possessions.

For what it's worth, I almost posted the under for the first half on this one. I have them scoring 74 in the first. Good luck

[HeeluvaGuy]

0-2 night last night. If it could go wrong, it did from a scoring perspective. The worst was all of the missed FTs in the EMU/Akron game. The teams went 28-54 (51.8%) from the FT line.

Thread: 55-50 (+2.08u)
Totals only: 53-44

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry for the last minute post:

12:00 Syracuse/Notre Dame o141.5 -101

No time to write it up. Sorry.

[cooperman]

Crush the book today!

[HeeluvaGuy]

Crush the book today!

Thanks coop. BOL to you as well!

[HeeluvaGuy]

My apologies, but today I don't have time to write my plays up and will be spitting them out piecemeal. Here's the next one:

7:00 SIU Edwardsville/UT Martin o145.5 -110

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Wyoming/New Mexico o158 -110

[HeeluvaGuy]

I'll update the record in a bit. It was a disappointing 1-2 day. Posting now to let anyone who's interested know that I just posted my model predictions for the day: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

[HeeluvaGuy]

1-2 night last night. Frustrating. The two night games were both on pace at half time, but both games had fewer points in the second half than the first.

Thread: 56-52 (+.88u)
Totals only: 54-46

[HeeluvaGuy]

2:00 Siena/Manhattan o143.5 -108
Manhattan is pretty brutal offensively, but they are a little better at home. This game should have a nice pace to it. I get 73 possessions, Kenpom has 71. Both teams get to the line and foul a lot, so maybe we squeak out even a few more than that. Siena also gets PG Marquis Wright back today from suspension as well.

2:00 Oakland/Wright St o148.5 -102
This game could get up to 75 possessions, which should get it over 148 fairly easily. Both teams are good at getting to the line, and I think Oakland’s defense isn’t quite as good as its defensive efficiency numbers indicate.

4:00 UCF/Memphis o135 -108
Now that BJ Taylor is back, UCF has a respectable offense. I think this game gets up to 70+ possessions, which should get us over the modest 135 here. I worry a little that Memphis will have trouble scoring if UCF can play defense without fouling, but their foul rate is a little higher on the road than at home, and I expect Memphis will try to challenge the big fella early to get him in foul trouble.

[doubledime]

The overs on your program continue to win. Now 57.36% over almost 400 games, 40+ units depending on juice. WOW

Good luck today.

[Fabiodog]

Playing only first halves,TY

[cooperman]

1st couple of games are going to be close/ They both need 40 pts in the last 10 min. Both are blowouts. Some garbage time pts will be nice

[cooperman]

delete

[HeeluvaGuy]

Playing only first halves,TY

Looks like the first two hit? Fwiw, I don't do any halftime handicapping. But hey, if it wins it wins!

[jameski999]

Only 2pts in the last 1:03 of the game hard to believe. Push is always better then a loser but that one was so close.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Only 2pts in the last 1:03 of the game hard to believe. Push is always better then a loser but that one was so close.

Johnny Dawkins is a bad, bad coach. Down 3 with :38 to go, UCF should have gone fast and tried to get to the basket. They could have then extended the game against a 65% FT shooting team. Instead, they dribbled around for 20 seconds, got a horrible shot, and ended up fouling down 3 with 4 seconds left. He cost his team a shot at winning and us a shot at the over.

But you're right, it's better than losing.

[HeeluvaGuy]

2-0-1 day. Would have been nice to get the Memphis game, but instead we got a weird finish thanks to a crappy coach.

Thread: 58-52 (+2.88u)
Totals only: 56-46

[jameski999]

Johnny Dawkins is a bad, bad coach. Down 3 with :38 to go, UCF should have gone fast and tried to get to the basket. They could have then extended the game against a 65% FT shooting team. Instead, they dribbled around for 20 seconds, got a horrible shot, and ended up fouling down 3 with 4 seconds left. He cost his team a shot at winning and us a shot at the over.

But you're right, it's better than losing.

I hear ya. Had a quick whistle all day just had to drive it to the rim and would have got to the line easy. But instead they dribble around for 20 secs like u said. Only getting 2 pts in last min of a 4-5 pt game prob only happens 1 maybe 2 times out of 10. But I'll take the push but kind of feels like a loser

[cooperman]

2-0-1 day.
Thread: 58-52 (+2.88u)
Totals only: 56-46

great way to end the week.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I hear ya. Had a quick whistle all day just had to drive it to the rim and would have got to the line easy. But instead they dribble around for 20 secs like u said. Only getting 2 pts in last min of a 4-5 pt game prob only happens 1 maybe 2 times out of 10. But I'll take the push but kind of feels like a loser

Crazy, but it just happened in the ASU/USC game too. 2 points in the last 1:09 in what was a 5-point game. The weirdest part? That total pushed too. Cue the Twilight Zone music...

[cooperman]

Crazy, but it just happened in the ASU/USC game too. 2 points in the last 1:09 in what was a 5-point game. The weirdest part? That total pushed too. Cue the Twilight Zone music...

As A guy who chalked up his under 161 bet as a loss with 1:09 left, I sat in disbelief as I watched that unfold. They say all the bad beats even out in the end. Proof positive.

[HeeluvaGuy]

Looking like a pass for me today unless there is some line movement.

[doubledime]

Looking like a pass for me today unless there is some line movement.

My thoughts also.

The overs on your model/program continue to win. May be a good day to blindly give them a small touch.

[Flea Hotel]

I can't even watch the games that I tail from you guys. It's like being back watching my high school girlfriend's high school basketball where getting the ball inbound was epic or sometimes 5 minutes would go by without even a shot. I swear some of these lower Tier 1 teams have starters who must be 30% from the foul line.

As A guy who chalked up his under 161 bet as a loss with 1:09 left, I sat in disbelief as I watched that unfold. They say all the bad beats even out in the end. Proof positive.

[HeeluvaGuy]

I can't even watch the games that I tail from you guys. It's like being back watching my high school girlfriend's high school basketball where getting the ball inbound was epic or sometimes 5 minutes would go by without even a shot. I swear some of these lower Tier 1 teams have starters who must be 30% from the foul line.

The worst plays are often the "fast breaks." Watch enough of these and you'll be shocked at the number of balls dribbled off of shins or blocked by the bottom of the rim.

[Flea Hotel]

Oh I know. Or the wide open passes that miss the player and go into the first row of the stands. The new fad is these donks trying to be Steph Curry and taking unnecessarily long threes with no defenders around them and they miss the rim by a yard.

The worst plays are often the "fast breaks." Watch enough of these and you'll be shocked at the number of balls dribbled off of shins or blocked by the bottom of the rim.

[HeeluvaGuy]

My thoughts also.

The overs on your model/program continue to win. May be a good day to blindly give them a small touch.

I took the night off, but I hope you did this. The overrs were 7-2 against the closing line. Those are currently sitting at 57.96% through 402 picks this month.

[HeeluvaGuy]

7:00 Buffalo/Miami (OH) o147 -110
I get 75 possessions here, but I could see this one going a little higher than that. Both teams foul a lot, which should help with scoring efficiency and pace numbers. I have this one going over 150. Kenpom has 73 possessions.

[HeeluvaGuy]

8:00 Kent St/Northern Illinois o140 -110
We should get at least 72 possessions in this one, but more are possible. NIU’s offensive numbers are not very good, but they have shot and scored better at home this season than on the road. I also think NIU’s defensive numbers are a bit overrated still. I am a little concerned that these two played two weeks ago and only managed .911 points per possession, but I think we see a little more pace tonight. Kenpom has 69 possessions.

[doubledime]

I took the night off, but I hope you did this. The overrs were 7-2 against the closing line. Those are currently sitting at 57.96% through 402 picks this month.

I too passed last night. I did blindly play the overs from your program for just a touch, which worked out well!

Good luck on your card tonight.