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NCAA Baseball Picks: Road to Omaha
One of my absolute favorite times of the year as the NCAA Baseball tournament starts on Friday with Regional action. I don't claim to know shit from shit, just sharing my thoughts and the research I put into these picks. Unfortunately not a lot of books post lines for these. 5Dimes will be the book any price in this thread is quoted on. If you find others than provide these lines, please share as I am sure others as well as myself are always looking for other options.
Here is a quick overview and futures look.
Regionals Overview
There are 16, four team Regionals in play this weekend. Here's a quick & easy place to find the brackets as the tournament unfolds.
http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/baseball/d1I
I went back through 2010 to take a look at some futures options to start off this weekend. Since 2010, #1 seeds/host teams in Regionals have won 55 of the 80 Regionals. That means the door is open for some upsets. Last year was the craziest in recent memory with nine of the host teams failing to make it out of the Regionals. A whopping FIVE of the National Seeds were done before the Super Regionals. Over that five year span, a National Seed has failed to advance out of the Regionals at least once. So let's ID the National Seeds and which teams might be prone to the upset this weekend.
National Seeds
UCLA
LSU
Louisville
Florida
Miami, FL
Illinois
TCU
Missouri State
In looking at the Regionals these National Seeds are involved in + form for these clubs down the stretch, there are four teams that stand out more than the others as ones who could find themselves out this weekend.
Missouri State
The Bears have a tremendous 1-2 punch in their rotation with Matt Hall & Jon Harris and a great closer in Bryan Young. Their offense is patient as they rank 13th in D1 in OBP with a BA of .292 and 350 runs scored. They have won 16 straight. So how could they lose? For one, a team in this region, Iowa, has beaten them once this season. Secondly, while this team is legit, they have not faced top notch competition for most of the season. Dallas Baptist, another NCAA team, was the best team they faced and they did win 2/3 in that series, but all were one run games. They have not had much if any adversity, so how will they play if they are forced into an early elimination game?
#2 seed Iowa is just solid all-around. Solid pitching depth. Great bullpen. Great defense. The offense is not over powering, but they are decent at .273 with 283 runs scored. They are not going to outslug teams, but in this Regiona that could be okay. They went 5-1 against the best the Big 10 could offer in Illinois & Maryland, so they match up with anyone. The win over Missouri State early in the season should give them confidence as they beat Jon Harris. If they can get past Oregon in their opener, they'll feel they can have a shot to play in the Regional Final.
#3 seed Oregon isn't a typical Ducks team that has stellar pitching. They have a couple of decent lefties leading their rotation with Cole Irvin & David Peterson, but the ERA for this club is a fairly pedestrian 3.68 by their standards. They do however have a superb bullpen with versatility and a dominant closer in Clevinger. The offense doesn't sound intimidating with a .254 BAA, but they do average more than five runs per game thanks to a patient approach that gets them a ton of walks. If you know nothing else about the Ducks, they come into this playing well after beating #1 National Seed UCLA in two of three to end the season. They also scored a win over Oregon State in Corvallis near the tail end of the season & took two more from them in a three game set. They don't look it by the numbers, but this team is sneaky dangerous.
#4 seed Canisius will hope its offense can carry them. They ranked 10th in D1 in runs scored with 420 with a solid OBP that could help set them up for some big enough innings to worry the other teams in this Region. Their pitching is the Achilles Heel with a 4.60 ERA. Their top starter Devon Stewart sports a 3.65 ERA. They are experienced though and they will be going against offenses that don't always put up big numbers. To pull off a huge surprise though, they'll need that starting rotation to keep them competitive into the middle innings and hope their offense gets the big hits they are accustomed to getting.
The Field @ +250 is the pick to win the Springfield Regional/Risking 1.0 units
TCU
In all honesty, the other National Seeds' Regions look simple enough for them all to go through. Of course, major surprises do happen, but I have a hard time finding another one. The one team that you could possibly stick onto upset alert would be TCU. Yes, the Frogs have one of the best and deepest pitching staffs in the country. They have a solid offense. They have been great all season. They have experience, but they also come into the tournament with two losses to non-tournament teams in Texas Tech and Baylor in the Big 12 tournament. Maybe it was just a hangover from them wrapping up the regular season title and not really needing it, but last year's World Series club came into the Regionals humming after winning the Big 12 tournament and kept right on going. They have a soft Regional outside of #2 seed, N.C. State. That is the one team that I think could pick them off. Stony Brook & Sacred Heart I don't think will have a chance against them.
The Field is @ +400 in the Ft.Worth Regional Against TCU, but there might be better value in playing NC State ML when/if they go head-to-head. It's going to be difficult for any of these teams to beat TCU twice.
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Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36
