[Louisvillekid1]

So I can't sleep and here we go...

[PhilTheTHRILL]

Wisky -6... Boom

[2daBank]

arky-2... scary is 207th in the nation in turnover percentage, turned it over 20x the 1st meeting, is 2nd to last in the conf in offensive efficiency, razorbacks just a bad matchup for them. i guess my 1 concern would be that you can get offensive boards on ark but if you shoot so poorly you cant make ark pay for playing the pressure d you gonna be in trouble, especially if you turning it over which i believe scary will.. already played it cause i dont think there any way this line doesnt creep up another point or 2, outta close closer to -4.

only team worth a damn scary has beat in their building was uga and uga was incredibly short handed that gm. 4-4 in conf at home with the 4 wins coming against a shorthanded uga team, sip st, mizzou, and bama. beside uk they have also dropped home gms to the likes of the gators, A&M, and freaking vols.. arky should take this gm. much like yesterdays big east tilts this obviously the square side but also the right 1 i believe which why im pretty sure the line creeps up as arky should be getting money from all sides. i guess if line doesnt go up maybe i would worry a little, i guess we shall see..

[2daBank]

i will say i wouldnt wanna lay much more cause ark has played a bunch of really close road gms..

[2daBank]

the maac and valley tourneys start now! love those conferences.. wish we had day gms.

[Louisvillekid1]

Georgia St is Playing @ UL Monroe

Lets just talk about G St for a minute. They have so much talent, entering this season I thought they could be a top 40 team. The chemistry between them has let down expectations as they need a lesson from Walter White. (lol sounded funny in my head, as I am intoxicated)

Maybe your familiar w/ Ryan Harrow (transfer from UK) or maybe Kevin Ware (transfer from UL) well one of the most talented players you might not heard of is RJ Hunter. 6'6 combo that can do it all.

On paper going 20-9 up to this point and 13-5 in the Sun belt playing the 213th ranked schedule is a huge disappointment.

They are currently in a 3 way tie for 1st place in the Sun belt w/ you guessed it ULM & GA Southern.

Both squads had a week off before this game. In the first meeting back in December the Panthers smoked the Warhawks by 20. In that game Senior Tylor Ongwae got into foul trouble and finished the game 0-7 w/ 0 points and 0 boards. The previous year he dropped 27 on em. After that game the Warhawks flew to 6 straight wins and won 13 of 17 up to this point. The first 3 of those 4 losses where by 4/4/ & 2 Respectfully. The 4th loss was in the last game on the road after just one day rest to APPY State (where they looking ahead)?

A week has gone by and now they host the panthers w/ revenge on their mind. It's the 3rd straight road game for GA State and they have co leader Ga Southern on deck just 2 days later for Ryan Harrow's senior night.

This is Ongwae's senior night for the Warhawks and something tells me he will at least perform his 14 & 7 that he's accustomed too.

I can re type the ken pom stats for you stating:
Ga St 46th in nation EFG, well ULM 14th defending it
Ga St 238th in nation on the O glass, well ULM 128 defensive
Ga St 238th in nation 3pt %, well ULM 16th defending it
Ga St 14th in Nation 2pt %, well ULM not too shabby @ 40th

-----

Ga st thrives in the open floor off their defense creating turnovers on 22.9% of their opponents possessions (good for 19th in the nation) but ULM only turns its over on 17.8% of theirs (good for 82nd in the nation) Did I mention the Warhawks rebound 30.5% of their missed shots (middle of the pack) but the Panthers one of the worst rebounding squads in the country (on both ends).

-Both squads solid from the line

In the first matchup back in Decemeber the Warhakws jumped out to a 17-9 and lead @ half 26-23 (granted the Panthers were coming off Non conference game w/ Green Bay just days prior and Monroe was well rested)

Im just thinking aloud here, and just beginning to break down the card, but too me this home dog catching 5 points could be barking.

[Louisvillekid1]

Gonna be hard for me to pass on VCU +4 as they are secretly my 2nd favorite squad, & I don't rarely bet dogs that I don't believe can win, but cal catching an awful big #...

Anyway gonna catch some ZZZZ's, no daytime action tomorrow unfortunately so back to real world work.

[2daBank]

think i agree with you bout monroe, i was checking this gm out before i knew the line and was surprised when i saw -5. i came up with way closer to KP line of -2, maybe 3 at most. gotta think +5 wont be around real long..

[Louisvillekid1]

think i agree with you bout monroe, i was checking this gm out before i knew the line and was surprised when i saw -5. i came up with way closer to KP line of -2, maybe 3 at most. gotta think +5 wont be around real long..

Yeah only thing that worries me is the talent is there and if the decide to play they could cover the #

[2daBank]

Gonna be hard for me to pass on VCU +4 as they are secretly my 2nd favorite squad, & I don't rarely bet dogs that I don't believe can win, but cal catching an awful big #...

Anyway gonna catch some ZZZZ's, no daytime action tomorrow unfortunately so back to real world work.

man vcu struggling, they were rolling the 1st gm and it was only a 6 point gm in the house havoc reigns supreme.. davidson been unreal in 1st halves this season so if you do like vcu maybe better to wait and see.. i dunno, im tired too. no real work for me till Mon, fukkin wish i was off next week! talk 2marro.

[2daBank]

Yeah only thing that worries me is the talent is there and if the decide to play they could cover the #

yea for sure, they looked good a few times early. havnt paid attention during conf play seeing how they the only team in the conf kp ranks inside the top 150 or so (and well inside it)..

[Louisvillekid1]

arky-2... scary is 207th in the nation in turnover percentage, turned it over 20x the 1st meeting, is 2nd to last in the conf in offensive efficiency, razorbacks just a bad matchup for them. i guess my 1 concern would be that you can get offensive boards on ark but if you shoot so poorly you cant make ark pay for playing the pressure d you gonna be in trouble, especially if you turning it over which i believe scary will.. already played it cause i dont think there any way this line doesnt creep up another point or 2, outta close closer to -4.

only team worth a damn scary has beat in their building was uga and uga was incredibly short handed that gm. 4-4 in conf at home with the 4 wins coming against a shorthanded uga team, sip st, mizzou, and bama. beside uk they have also dropped home gms to the likes of the gators, A&M, and freaking vols.. arky should take this gm. much like yesterdays big east tilts this obviously the square side but also the right 1 i believe which why im pretty sure the line creeps up as arky should be getting money from all sides. i guess if line doesnt go up maybe i would worry a little, i guess we shall see..

Man this looks easy...

Im a sucker for Coach Martin, but at worst case I can prob buy this back @ 3.5/4

Passed on St john's in similar situation tonight, and you beat me up 2h in pc/hall

Lol my backing of hall looks bad now, but I was cocky and didn't hedge @ half.

[Louisvillekid1]

Ideally I want think lil pitino will have troops pressing early against Wiscy young pg following that huge team effort on kamisky's senior night(brutal beat for us 2x badger backers).

They been off since the 26th, +3ish at home 1H tempts me...

[Louisvillekid1]

Lol,

I just had a write up for Minny +3.5 1H and my internet went out, way to drunk to re type all that...

Anyway I think they are another live pony for the first 20 minutes, and won't shy away from a small investment on them after resting since the 26th and wiscy coming off Kaminsky Senior night (brutal loss for us 2x badger backers)

[2daBank]

Man this looks easy...

Im a sucker for Coach Martin, but at worst case I can prob buy this back @ 3.5/4

Passed on St john's in similar situation tonight, and you beat me up 2h in pc/hall

Lol my backing of hall looks bad now, but I was cocky and didn't hedge @ half.

If it makes u feel better I wasn't confident enough to repop pc 2nd half even tho I didn't mind how the 1st half played out.. I feel like this gm/line incredibly similar, the line for sure as opened same and think it def moves to closing close to the same. The gm isn't same as the problems pc prevented for hall wernt the same but ark prevents equally difficult things for scary to deal with that they really havnt shown the ability to do.

Maybe nc would say that after both pc and johnnies yesterday no way this cashes (def curious to his response to this 1).. But if u look at yesterday it not like everyone was cleaning up, and w conf tourneys starting w extra gms to bet I think it possible we gettin some value on some obvious gms for some reason. Let me make it clear ark has played some really really tight road gms against the same bottom feeders I'm knocking for scarys wins. there a real good chance at some point it doesn't look great and arky threatened but I think talent wins out where the team off a U.K. beat down isn't looking to put a bad loss on resume and fall down the seedings if they have 2nd weekend aspirations.

Also, yet again KP has this as scary-1 just like Hall yesterday which I Was surprised by w SH line for kp but made me feel strangly better about playing what felt like a really square line for sure. So of coarse when I saw kp w scary-1 all a sudden ark felt so similar in so many ways..

I dunno, I vaped a little bit of wax and that shit has me getting all introspective and deep when all I'm doing is playing the obvious side every jerkoff will love! Lol.. I'm sure we will come up w some impressive sharper winners later!!

[2daBank]

Lol,

I just had a write up for Minny +3.5 1H and my internet went out, way to drunk to re type all that...

Anyway I think they are another live pony for the first 20 minutes, and won't shy away from a small investment on them after resting since the 26th and wiscy coming off Kaminsky Senior night (brutal loss for us 2x badger backers)

Hate when that happens, lol. I Havnt looked much yet bet that would def be the only way I would go with it so I'm sure I'll consider it..

[BeanTownClown88]

Haha that wax bro...lookin at middle tenn over florida int...will check out injuries for MT but they score much better than fla int.

[GT21Megatron]

VCU sucks without Weber man. Never would of thought that he was what made that team tick. Davidson first half on senior night for me....I know VCU is usually strong in the second half with big comebacks against Richmond and ODU both on the road that I can pull off the top of my head. Might be able to get a good number on a second half VCU play

[davidg123]

The line that intrigues me is WKU +4.5 against Charlotte. Western Kentucky seems to be getting back on track after a rough stretch, and beat Charlotte by 8 at home. WKU also needs this win to try to beat out Ole Dominion and UTEP in the CUSA standings, while Charlotte is only battling with FIU and are much lower in the standings. What do y'all think?

[PorkChop]

Temple - 5 at ECU. Very important must-win for Tempe.

[PorkChop]

arky-2... arky should take this gm. much like yesterdays big east tilts this obviously the square side but also the right 1 i believe which why im pretty sure the line creeps up as arky should be getting money from all sides. i guess if line doesnt go up maybe i would worry a little, i guess we shall see..

2nd best team in nation in three's, South Car shot less than 28 percent from field last matchup. You have shooters vs non shooters. No reason this should be anything less than a 10+point win for Arkansas.

[davidg123]

From what I'm reading online, WKU is terrible against the spread on the road. Not sure about that one. It seems, from people online, that Arkansas will win in a blow out. Maybe I'll bet that.

[Dilo]

I think I am betting a little something on wisconsin badgers, just a little

[GHSCREW]

Lkid, you gotta love Siena at home today against Niagara. Am i right?

[PorkChop]

Lkid, you gotta love Siena at home today against Niagara. Am i right?

Niagara has actually been very good of late.

[GHSCREW]

Niagara has actually been very good of late.

they have.
It also is great to know that the MAAC tourney is held in Albany at the Times Union Center, where Siena has been playing home games all year. Last I looked, a majority of the tickets for the 5pm first game have been purchased, meaning that there will be a lot of Siena Fans there. Although Niagara is a completely different team since mid January, it does do well to note that Siena had beat them twice in their regular season matchups, covering the spread as well. I'm feeling a comfortable 8-9 point win for the Saints at home.


Put ur point is completely valid, and my only lingering doubt. Niagara has been on fire in their last 5, while Siena has faulted. I just feel the home edge is going to be a strong factor here

[No coincidences]

arky-2... scary is 207th in the nation in turnover percentage, turned it over 20x the 1st meeting, is 2nd to last in the conf in offensive efficiency, razorbacks just a bad matchup for them. i guess my 1 concern would be that you can get offensive boards on ark but if you shoot so poorly you cant make ark pay for playing the pressure d you gonna be in trouble, especially if you turning it over which i believe scary will.. already played it cause i dont think there any way this line doesnt creep up another point or 2, outta close closer to -4.

only team worth a damn scary has beat in their building was uga and uga was incredibly short handed that gm. 4-4 in conf at home with the 4 wins coming against a shorthanded uga team, sip st, mizzou, and bama. beside uk they have also dropped home gms to the likes of the gators, A&M, and freaking vols.. arky should take this gm. much like yesterdays big east tilts this obviously the square side but also the right 1 i believe which why im pretty sure the line creeps up as arky should be getting money from all sides. i guess if line doesnt go up maybe i would worry a little, i guess we shall see..

ML is dropping. One of the stranger lines I've seen all season long. Arkansas should've opened at -4.

[No coincidences]

Maybe nc would say that after both pc and johnnies yesterday no way this cashes (def curious to his response to this 1)

I'd be careful how often you go back to the well on short road faves.

Also, yet again KP has this as scary-1 just like Hall yesterday which I Was surprised by w SH line for kp but made me feel strangly better about playing what felt like a really square line for sure. So of coarse when I saw kp w scary-1 all a sudden ark felt so similar in so many ways..

And here we get back to the argument about KenPom. We all know by now Vegas basically copies his lines. That much is a given, and I think it costs them dearly in the long run. We'll see if Vegas is right in this particular instance where they're obviously not buying his statistical love for South Carolina. I personally think his formulas aren't anywhere near perfect and far too based in statistics (without taking the human element into consideration) to stay as loyal as Vegas does to his numbers, but to each his own.

[chunk]

If I could bet into Kenpom lines, I would be one happy sumbitch.

[RavensFan2k3]

Alot of people starting to call Arkansas a trap smh

[RavensFan2k3]

Alot of people starting to call Arkansas a trap smh

And this game is televised...not feeling good about it

[chunk]

Would favor the So Caro side at +3, but line has gone down from there recently.

[No coincidences]

FTR, I'm not trying to knock KenPom. He has an unbiased system and sticks to it. Good for him. No one is holding a gun to Vegas' head and telling them to blindly tail. They just choose to do so, which leads to a lot of incredibly soft lines throughout the year.

[Louisvillekid1]

lol @ that wax bro, shit is selling like crazy here...

I don't smoke personally, but all these college heads and their big ass torches..

Anyway, Lets find some winners!

[Louisvillekid1]

Temple - 5 at ECU. Very important must-win for Tempe.

I've noticed you've went w/ this "must win" angle a lot...

Be careful w/ that