Originally Posted by
xdodger19
In this case since there is only 2 games to get through, you are really playing a 2 team money line parlay
one game at -140 the other game at +140. If you win both games you win the standard 2 team parlay amount +270
The problem with this is you don't get the +5.5 points vs Valparasio in the championship game
In this scenario with the bye, say Green Bay plays Cleveland St. you money line it real close at like -125 if you win your up like 80
if they lose to cleveland st in both scenarios you are down 100,
if they win then you have 2 options
1) Take the 80 and put it on Green Bay +140 in the championship game on the moneyline
if win your up about 215 but if you lose you are even.
Or take the 80 then take Green Bay and the 5.5 points and if win up 160. but if lose you are even
2) Or would you rather be down 100 no points with Green Bay on the road straight up to win 270
and get your 100 back,and if they lose you lose 100
The moneyline scenario is better because if you lose the final you are even
if you win your up 160. And you have a better chance at winning because you get 5.5 points
this scenario over ten games your expected ev is+800
in the future scenario you lose 100 say 6 out of ten times -600
you win 270 4times 1080 -600 = +440 ev and thats generous to say GB has a 40 percent chance in the final straight up
in this scenario your ev is +44 if Green Bay has a 40 percent chance of winning straight up.
The money line play here has an ev of +80