Can't believe they pulled it out, kept thinking their depth and smu recent travels would wear them down, still were only up 3 w under 30 seconds or whatever, nice when the foul gm goes our way,, lol....
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12-18-12 10:17 PM #36
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12-18-12 10:56 PM #37
nice work, I will follow.
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12-19-12 09:12 AM #38
9-5 +5 Units
Wow just WOW did we squeak that one out or what??!!! Honestly a great game and I'm glad we came out on the right side... SMU gives that sort of effort against RI last play, and it would have never lost.
I love me some big cards. Yesterday had a few nice games to angle, and the same can be said for today... I like big cards... It's easy to find value in a couple games.
Today, I like the Duquesne Dukes at home against a "decent" Western Michigan team that is coming off a nice little win over High Point... I see this game as a battle, and Duquesne is a "young" team in a tough conference running a great new system put together by their new head coach, Jim Ferry. A lot has changed since these teams met last year, and Western Michigan cruised. Duquesne has made their presence felt on the boards, out-rebounding opponents in 8 of 11 games this season. They face another "good" rebounding squad in Western Mich led by a hot shot returning senior forward, Nate Hutchenson...
I like a few things here... Duquesne with an impressive come from behind win against West Virgina, followed by a tough loss to Robert Morris. Tonight's game will be their last home game of 2012, and it is nationally televised. Not only that, you have a Western Michigan squad playing their 4th and last AWAY game during a long stretch beginning on Dec 4th before they return home to face Mount Saint Mary's on Saturday. If ever there was a time for Duquesne to get a nice, televised win at home before the holidays, and before they get ready for 3 straight road games, it is tonight.
My play:
Duquesne Dukes -4.5 @ Home vs West Mich - 1 Unit
***Bonus play for today...
From time to time I'll make a bonus posted play. I play quite a few games, especially on a card like today's, but typically only post one... No write-up for these. Just a play...
Wright St -7 @ Home against Miami (OH) - 1 Unit
BOL!!!Last edited by RetardStrength; 12-19-12 at 09:41 AM.
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12-19-12 11:09 AM #39
great write up as always, Im tailing both, gl
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12-20-12 10:49 AM #40
YTD 11-5 +7 Units
Once again, great to be on the right side of things, squeezing out W's in both games. I actually watched the Duquesne game. Some exceptional play by the frosh, Colter and really fought off the Broncos at the end. A frustrating game, for sure, as Duquesne went up big in the beginning of the second half, as the Broncos went ICE cold, shooting somewhere around 12%. Only to have things turn around, turn-overs, fouls, bad shots, and the inevitable re-heating of the Broncos offense. Honestly a great game and again, it was nice to be on the right side, even by only .5! Boy does it make it sweet when you WIN by that margin, vs taking a last second LOSS...
So on to todays card. Saying it is ugly is an understatement... Having a very, very difficult time angling. There is one game sticking out to me, however, and it's a "good" team that shoots the ball well, and thus scoring a lot of points per game, and doesn't rebound too poorly either. They just came off a tough loss to a good opponent, and now travel to face an inter-conference opponent that really hasn't proven much to me. I'm talking about Weber St traveling to Eastern Washington tonight.
Some exceptional play as of late by the junior forward Davion Berry. He is the 7th leading scorer in the Big Sky and he's averaging north of 40% in FG percentage. I like him to be a VERY strong presence tonight against an Eastern Washington squad that gives up A LOT of points. I feel they are simply outmatched here... Some solid defensive effort tonight, and they hold East Wash to the low 60's. Continued balanced shot selection and solid effort on the boards, and they themselves score in the high 70's.
I feel this line is a gift, at (7). It's obviously boosted by the on the road inter conference play factor, but I still feel like Weber St gets this win by DD tonight, and starts their Big Sky season off the right way. They currently sit in the middle of the pack due to overall record, but they can easily be the best team in this conference.
My Play: Weber St -7 @ Eastern Washington - 1 Unit
BOL
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12-20-12 11:00 AM #41
Just a note... Eying Portland St as well... Not sure how a team that averages 68 points per game, playing at home, inter-conference against a really bad Idaho St team, averaging only 50 points per game, in their 3rd of 5 consecutive road games, is only laying 7.5.
I like that these are the first inter-conference games for both of these teams in the Big Sky, which is clearly a division where 4 or 5 of the teams within this division could easily be the leader... You look to hammer your inter-conf opponents in these spots.
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12-20-12 11:02 AM #42
I like this game a lot. Probably will tail you on this with a small amount. @-7.5 though
BOL bro!
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12-20-12 11:04 AM #43
maybe because portland st. hasn't proven too much either? I mean the only two wins they have had this season were against non division I teams
Originally Posted by RetardStrength
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12-20-12 11:06 AM #44
Don't get me wrong... They are both bad... I'm looking more at how much they score, and how much they give up, vs the same statistics for Id St. You are right in that neither team has really proven anything in the win/loss department. Originally Posted by vincereyes
This spot is a feeler... My posted play has my confidence. BOL to you!!!
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12-20-12 11:19 AM #45
Gl RS,
nice write up
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12-21-12 10:49 AM #46
YTD 12-5 +8 Units
Things went just as expected. Weber St took care of business, got a nice "statement" win against a weaker opponent inter-conference. Watch out for this team going forward. I avoided Port St, as I didn't see value in betting on mutts like that. Low and behold, they took care of biz as well... A VERY profitable night overall, as I did make plays on Michigan, as well as LaSalle, and even tailed LKid on UC Irvine based on the info he laid out in his thread. Not to mention going big on the Heat on TNT.....easy money! Let's keep this cash train rolling. I've been hot with posted plays recently, and I want to keep that going!
Against my better judgment, and just using Wyoming as my posted play, I'm going to pick a dog tonight... Two teams that have played recently, and yes, North Dakota St walked away with a DD win... Now Morehead St travels to NDS's house for a last game right before the break. Some tough losses for the Eagles and an unimpressive win against a weak Ind St team... Coming off a loss, on the road at South Dak, I think they gear up a little for this game and bring it all before they get to take a week or so off. I like a few things here... They've played recently, and Morehead St dropped that game by 12 at home... It was a stretch of some bad losses for this team, after the controversy with the head coach. I believe, in this spot, they play with some fire... Sean Woods crossed the line, but he is truly a "good" coach and this squad plays with discipline. They currently sit at 5-6, and I'm sure they'd like to leave basketball behind and spend some time with their families sitting at .500 rather than 5-7. Look for Woods to step up the defense, and hold this North Dakota team to less than their avg. I see them scoring somewhere in the 63-66 point range in this spot. I see Morehead St coming close to their avg at around 70, so yes, I believe they can win this game.
It's a let-down spot for North Dak, knowing they've "handled" this team before, they're sitting pretty at 9-3 and 1-0 in the Summit, currently tied for 2nd place, and guess who they play AFTER this game, AFTER the break, on the 29th??? Yes, that's correct, a VERY MEANINGFUL inter-conference game against the SDS Jackrabbits who are tied for 2nd in the Summit, with a 1-0 record and a 9-4 record overall... I feel like North Dakota St snoozes through this one tonight, and potentially gives it up. While that is a long-shot, 13 points is A LOT to be laying in this spot.
My Play: Morehead St +13 @ North Dakota St - 1 Unit
BOL!
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12-21-12 11:59 AM #47
great write up, RS. good work in this thread! I'm gonna tail today. BoL!
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12-21-12 12:01 PM #48
Didnt catch it until 11.5 (bought up to 12 (-115)), so you're on the right side of the line move.
Let$ ca$h thi$!
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12-21-12 12:48 PM #49
Originally Posted by TheBetBuysDanK
BOL!
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12-22-12 10:40 AM #50
12-6 +7 Units
Ugh. Lackluster effort. Profitable night thanks to Wyoming but damned on the posted play...
No write up today cause on my phone.... And hungover
My Play: Wake Forest +2 - 1 Unit
BOL!!!!
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12-22-12 12:37 PM #51
-1.5 now. retardstrength, movin' lines!
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12-25-12 09:44 AM #52
13-6 +8 Units
Nice straight up win for WF. Let me say merry Christmas to all of SBR. Looks like Vegas is handing out presents today on this Hawaiian Airlines Classic. The lines feel too low.... The only angle I can even approach is "let down." Being some of these teams have already lost, and now face inferior opponents. San Fran facing a beat up East Tenn squad, and the line honestly feels low sitting so close to 10 instead of 20. Ole Miss should handle Hawaii by DD's and if Miami feels like showing up at all they should roll Indiana St.
All of the above being said, I'm going with what I feel is the "best" play of the day. I'm going to use the word best and not the word safest because both of these teams have presence. Arizona will look to close out this this tournament and remain undefeated and continue the best start to a season since 1987. With some of the top teams in the country getting exposed recently (yes I'm talking Florida) this is an opportunity for Arizona to keep some real buzz in the top 5. I don't doubt the abilities of San Diego st for one second. Jamal Franklin is nice and Tapley has been making some serious contributions recently as well.
Arizona shoots extremely well, moves the ball extremely well, rebounds well and they play good defense. If they play tonight and cut down on the turnovers, they will handle this team. I don't expect a blowout, but I expect an Arizona win and with the line at (5) I don't see buzzer beaters but instead free throws and Zona winning this game by 7 or 8. I like that it is the last game if the day. With any luck, one or two of the early games will come down to the wire, maybe even have a buzzer beater and take a lot of the excitement away from this championship game thrown at the end of the night. The more "un-eventful" this game is, the better for Arizona to win and cover.
My play: Arizona -5 against San Diego St in the Hawaiian Airlines Classic Championship game - 1 Unit
BOL and Merry Christmas
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12-27-12 11:28 AM #53
13-7 +7 Units
Well I got what I wanted, an overtime game right before this championship match-up. Unfortunately, Zona just couldn't get it done... A great game to watch, however. Honestly, I think SDSU should have won the game outright...
No long write-up today. I'm going out on a limb here, and taking the Lobos to bounce back and reinstate themselves amongst the top 25 in the nation with a win tonight. Yes, I said, a WIN... I believe they can get it done with some good shooting and some tough defense. It is clear they looked past South Dakota St, as they were out-played in areas they typically bury their opponents... rebounding and fg%. It happens in college. As much as the coach wants his players to focus on each individual game, guys get excited about facing the big name, big rank teams, and they forget about the task at hand, thinking just showing up gets the job done.
The loss is what has me backing the Lobos. If they want to be taken seriously, they need to win this game. It's a little evident Cincy may have been looking ahead a little bit too, when they only beat Wright St by 10 after burying their rival Xavier, and looking at the upcoming then top 25, undefeated New Mexico... Cincy is the vulnerable team here. There is absolutely potential for them to roll, but I just can't see it... I see a slow start for Cincy and a close game that New Mexico can win. The points are enough to have me side the Lobos. If they can't win this outright, they lose by 3-5 points.
My Play - New Mexico +5 @ Cincinatti - 1 Unit
BOL!
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12-27-12 02:21 PM #54
get some!
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12-27-12 02:34 PM #55
I was considering Cincy in a ML play today. ultimately decided off it. I may take your advice and play +5 though. Should be a great game. BoL!
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12-27-12 04:07 PM #56
I won't lie there are "smarter" plays on the board but I like to test my angles with my POTD. I'm putting a lot of faith in this Lobos team tonight. Cincy is no joke but New Mexico is 100% capable of a win here. Hopefully the individual "issues" resulting in the benching of key players in their loss has been put in the past.
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12-28-12 11:53 AM #57
14-7 +8 Units
I had a feeling the Lobos would pull it out last night... Can't deny their record against ranked opponents. Great game, glad to be on the right side. Congrats to those who went SU on this one...
On to today's card. There are a few games I like, and for my play of the day, I'm going to pick what I see as a "friendly" line for a real mismatch in Rutgers hosting Rider in the early game today...
Now, before you disagree, I understand a few things here. Yes, Rutgers coach has been recently suspended for "inappropriate language and behavior" or whatever and Yes, inter-conference play starts on 1/2 against a very strong Syracuse team. However, I think the loss of Rutgers coach will have a positive effect on the program, for this game being played TODAY... I think with the loss of the head coach, there is much less "look-ahead" and more of an attempt for Rutgers to rally around their recently suspended coach, and bury this inferior opponent.
I was somewhat impressed with Rider until their recent bad losses to Fairfield, and Princeton, allowing Princeton to score far beyond their typical average. I don't see them being able to contain Carter and especially Mack, and I see Rutgers winning this game by 15+... Rider is absolutely outmatched, playing the second of a long road stretch, and I expect Rutgers to take every opportunity to really bury opponents like this leading up to their conference play, as there isn't much buzz about Rutgers basketball in the Big East let alone college bball altogether... If they want buzz, they need to create it, both in the Big East, and when facing teams like today...
My Play - Rutgers -10.5 @ Home against Rider - 1 Unit
BOL
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12-28-12 12:09 PM #58
Great call on the lobos last night. I am with you on rutgers today. They have been $$$$$ for me this season
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12-28-12 01:18 PM #59
Good luck to you! Early play. If it cashes I may have one more post today. Originally Posted by TheBetBuysDanK
I like a few of the numbers and matchups today, even on a somewhat ugly card in terms of who is playing
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12-28-12 09:50 PM #60
Cashed it w/ rutgers! had to sweat most the game....was watching gamecast on mobile while out of the house.
keep up the good work!
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12-29-12 09:48 AM #61
15-7 +9 Units
Well we squeaked that one out, didnt we!!? Again, nice to be on the right side.
No long write up today as I am on my phone. Ran through the list and found a very friendly line. Be sure to get in on this one I foresee a DD win here.
My Play: Utah St -3 @ Texas San Antonio - 1 Unit
BOL!!!!
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12-29-12 09:53 AM #62
Awesome. Was already on this game. LOVE seeing it as POTD! Ill probably dbl down. BoL, brother!
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12-29-12 09:56 AM #63
Good stuff bud. I post my plays then peruse the threads. Noticing others on this as well. The line reads very square but I am having a hard time not believing Ut St gets the job done here... Originally Posted by TheBetBuysDanK
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12-29-12 10:07 AM #64
5 - 0 as a favorite. 5 - 0 in december. 6 - 0 on saturday games. yuuuupppp.
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12-29-12 11:03 AM #65
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12-31-12 10:41 AM #66
16-7 +10 Units
Another close one. Good thing the early line was what it was, cause it moved closer to game time... Congrats to those who cashed!
For today, I like a few of the games, and deciding to ride Boston College at home against a weak opponent at the tail end of a loooooooong road stretch. This will be Dartmouths 8th, yes 8th road game in a row, and they have been getting waxed the entire time. While Boston College is not an exceptional team, they have some nice wins over Penn St, some "recent" wins over New Hampshire and Providence, and I think they look to take care of business today against Dartmouth, enjoy the new year, and get back to work in preparation for NC St on the 5th. I don't see "look ahead" here, rather "take care of business" here... They will out-size and out-score the Big Green and should win this game by 20+
My Play: Boston College -12 @ home vs Dartmouth - 1 Unit
BOL
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12-31-12 11:39 AM #67
let$ ca$h thi$ !!
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01-02-13 08:49 AM #68
17-7 +11 Units
Happy New Year, folks. Nice to see BC take care of business, winning by 21 points, as I expected, and hence the play...
Good card for today... A couple plays I like. As usual, I see some "favorable" lines, and I have decided my PPOTD. Richmond Spiders are a good team that have hit a rough patch. Really not playing very well in their last few games. They got handled by Kansas, then two tough losses to George Mason and then Davidson, who are certainly two very good teams right now. Richmond was down BIG against Davidson, and made a very strong effort to make a push for a win but when you're down that big at half, it is tough to fight off a 19 point deficit.
Richmond needs to use these next few games to really get back on track. Air Force is a tough squad putting up a lot of points, but I'm not impressed with their wins, and their losses to some of the better teams they've faced by DD make sense, excluding a close game against a strong Wichita St team. I see Richmond as comparable to that Wich St squad, and Air Force is in somewhat of a "look ahead" spot with their upcoming opponent Nevada to begin MWC inter-conference play. While they will play Richmond tough, they will simply be out-paced by this Spiders team, who will look to handle business here and get ready to begin their inter-conference play in the A10 against a weaker Rhode Island squad. Air Force has the tougher game coming up to begin inter-conference play, so I think if there was ever a time to angle "look ahead," it is today. Richmond needs to regain composure and get back to playing some better basketball.
Truth be told, Richmond will need to come out shooting the ball well. They will need to establish themselves early in this game, and I see a DD lead by the half. If they can do this, shoot around or a little better than their yearly avg for this game, they will keep their foot on the gas, and win this game by DD...
My play: Richmond Spiders -4.5 @ Home against Air Force Falcons - 1 Unit
BOL!
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01-02-13 08:59 AM #69
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01-02-13 09:01 AM #70
HNY, bud! Looking forward to finally getting all this inter-conf play started! Look forward to your plays. Noticed you did quite well on the bowl games... Keep at it! Originally Posted by PAULYPOKER
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