[TechnicalTrader]

This is something I've been working on for about 18 months now. I originally attempted to use a simple FX trading, moving average crossover strategy strategy on sportsbetting but my problem was not the accuracy, it was juice which killed me in the long term.

I've been playing around with an RSI filter on several different sports but noticed that it works best when linesmakers are accurate on moneylines. Obviously, this is a strategy which does not work well on the NHL, nor does it in MLB but the NBA has been looking good. Simply because of the wide range of spreads which are offered.

In a nutshell, this system attempts to exploit linemakers spreads, while a team is streaking ATS in either direction. By using an tweaked RSI filter I attempt to only play ATS's where linesmakers are doing their best to take money from the public.

I hope this all makes sense. For those interested, this is a standard wright up on the RSI and how it works. http://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp


I'll be tracking picks here for the rest of the season and if I end the year in the green, I will follow up next season. I will be playing a 4 game chase, so each "position" or chase will be riking ca. 19% of BR while attempting to win 1% per chase. My unit sizes will always be 1% of BR, max units at risk per play will be 10-11% of BR.

As soon as the break is over, I'll have about 3-6 plays.

[TechnicalTrader]

Here we go. I'll just strictly post during the first few days and if things are going according to plan, I will start updating BR and stats as we move along.

The system I am using right now is extremely similar to an FX scalping RSI strategy which I have used in the past. The only issues I had with it, was it's tempo. The system demanded me to be in front of a screen over extended hours due to the exotic stop losses I was forced to use. The sportsbetting market eliminates the tempo and stress. I also noticed that it works just as well for O/U bets, that is why I am adding them.

YTD, the system is doing extremely well, last season also. Each team provided me with about 10 signals during the first half, some of them were overturned (for example when both teams' signals were buys rather than sells. I simply avoided the entire matchup).

As for money management, I will be chasing up to five games (per team), risking only 0.5% per teams leg of the chase, so a lost chase will cost me roughly 21% of BR. As you can see below, the CHA/DET game is giving me an Over signal at 1%. In this case CHA and DET are both signaling 0.5% BR per bet, therefore the total is 1%. I hope this is clear...

Here we go.

CHA ATS +4.5 1%
NYK ATS +10 2.5%
NO ATS +3.5 1%

CHA/DET O 206.5 2%
NO/HOU O 227 1.5%
SAC/DEN O 220.5 2.5%

My starting BR will be USD 1,000.00

[gojetsgomoxies]

i'm conversant with some of what you say but don't understand it in its entirety.

what's the basic analytic driving choice of teams? how well they've done ATS recently? i understand it's RSI but RSI of what?

[TechnicalTrader]

i'm conversant with some of what you say but don't understand it in its entirety.

what's the basic analytic driving choice of teams? how well they've done ATS recently? i understand it's RSI but RSI of what?

I really, really do not want to go in to details due to the backtesting success. RSI of certain team-trends. I hope that's enough info.

[gojetsgomoxies]

I really, really do not want to go in to details due to the backtesting success. RSI of certain team-trends. I hope that's enough info.

fair enough i figured so........... can you at least say whether it's with the recent play flow or against?

[slamuels2021]

Subscribed. BOL

[TechnicalTrader]

fair enough i figured so........... can you at least say whether it's with the recent play flow or against?

I'm in a decent mood and looking to bounce back today.... Let's just say it is not a breakout strategy.

[TechnicalTrader]

Tonight's games:


PHO ATS, +6 -110 1.5%
SAS ATS, -4 -110 2.0%
DEN ATS, -9.5 -110 0.5%
WAS ATS, -8.0 -105 0.5%

MIL/UTA U, 201.0 -110 0.5%
LAC/SAS O,210.0 -110 2.0%
ATL/MIA U,208.0 -110 2.0%
DEN/BKN O,231.5 -110 1.0%
TOR/BOS O, 215.5 -110 2.0%
PHI/WAS U,216.0 -110 0.5%
OKC/LAL U, 222.5 -110 1.0%
MIN/DAL U, 203.5 -110 0.5%

[TechnicalTrader]

Yesterdays games:

CHA ATS +4.5 1% LOSS
NYK ATS +10 2.5% LOSS
NO ATS +3.5 1% LOSS

CHA/DET O 206.5 2% WIN
NO/HOU O 227 1.5% WIN
SAC/DEN O 220.5 2.5% LOSS

Down $38.17. Not a huge hit, happy my BR at risk is low. This system looks like it will be triggering a lot more bets than I originally expected. My BR% at risk per night will be anywhere between 3 and 20%

[TechnicalTrader]

Pretty much break even yesterday. here are today's picks:

IND	ATS +4.5	2%
CHA	ATS -3.5	1%
NYK	ATS -5.5	2%
ORL	ATS +3.0	1.50%
NO	ATS -2.0	0.50%
MIN	ATS +12.5	1.50%
SAC/CHA	O 207.5	3%
NYK/PHI	U 219.0	1%
ORL/ATL	0 209.5	1.50%
GS/BKN	U 236.5	1%

[TechnicalTrader]

a couple of real close ones last night, getting there...

Was down $35.50

Two separate signals on the OKC/NO game, playing both sides as they are two chases.

Today's games:

CHA	ATS	+10.0	0.6%
SAS	ATS	-11.5	0.6%
MEM	ATS	+2.0	9.4%
BOS	ATS	-2.0	13.6%
POR	ATS	+5.0	0.6%
OKC	ATS	-6.0	0.6%
NO	ATS	+6.0	1.7%
WAS	ATS	-1.5	5.4%
MIL/PHO	O 224.0	-110	0.6%
LAC/CHA	O 211.5	-110	3.5%
LAL/SAS	O 209.5	-110	4.2%
DEN/MEM	O 217.0	-110	0.6%
DET/ BOS	O 213.0	-110	2.3%
TOR/POR	O 209.0	-110	9.4%
WAS/UTA	U 205.5	-110	0.6%

[TechnicalTrader]

Finally broke out last night going 10 and 5. The only big game i missed was the WAS ATS bet. The ATS's went 6-2 while the O/U performed at 4-3. All in all I was up $278.58 which brings me back in to the plus.


Currently at 22-21, up $198.58 or 19.86%

I'm looking at well over 10 bets for tonight but my max bet will be around 3.6% BR, while my smallest will be around 0.6%. I'll try to keep the ball rolling and hope to get nice and hot soon.

[TechnicalTrader]

I'm taking both sides of certain games due to separate signals from each side of the spread:

MIL	ATS	8.5	0.56%
ATL	ATS	4.5	0.56%
MIN	ATS	-4.5	1.73%
NYK	ATS	2.5	1.73%
TOR	ATS	-2.5	0.56%
MIA	ATS	-1.5	0.56%
DAL	ATS	1.5	1.73%
IND	ATS	10	1.73%
PHI	ATS	13.5	0.56%
GS	ATS	-13.5	1.73%
CLE/MIL	U	218.5	1.00%
BOS/ATL	O	211.5	2.00%
SAC/MIN	O	209.5	2.00%
NYK/TOR	U	212.5	0.50%
PHI/GS	U	230.5	1.00%

[shooms79]

Why are you taking both sides?
I would think you could either pass, or subtract the % and play the side with the balance. From earlier you mentioned that the juice is what ate you up. Unless it is because of the chase system?

[IBetYou]

Both sides? That's a good joke.

RSI is simple. It means relative strength (index). It's not the foundation for a brilliant betting system.

[IBetYou]

Like discovering a magnifying glass, and saying now I can find the cure for cancer.

[TechnicalTrader]

I'm taking both sides because, in this case two teams' RSIs are signalling in separate directions. Again, this is a 4-5 game chase system where I risk max about 21%BR per chase. I'm not claiming that this is the holy grail of sports betting systems, just rolling with something which jas provided outstanding backtesting results.

The third leg of the DAL chase has ended while MIA moves in to the second leg. *edit

I'm not forcing anyone in here to join and comment nor am I forcing anyone to tail me. I'll keep on posting and if my numbers are decent at the end of the season, I'll post with more details next season where bettors can tail. Simple

[TechnicalTrader]

not bad at all...

MIL	ATS	8.5	0.56%	W
ATL	ATS	4.5	0.56%	W
MIN	ATS	-4.5	1.73%	W
NYK	ATS	2.5	1.73%	W
TOR	ATS	-2.5	0.56%	L
MIA	ATS	-1.5	0.56%	L
DAL	ATS	1.5	1.73%	W
IND	ATS	10	1.73%	W
PHI	ATS	13.5	0.56%	W
GS	ATS	-13.5	1.73%	L
CLE/MIL	U	218.5	1.00%	W
BOS/ATL	O	211.5	2.00%	W
SAC/MIN	O	209.5	2.00%	L
NYK/TOR	U	212.5	0.50%	W
PHI/GS	U	230.5	1.00%	W

I risked a total of $215.14 and the profit was $38.05. These are the types of numbers I will be aiming for throughout the rest of the season.

Current BR: $1,236.58
Profit: $236.58 (23.66% 23.66 units if betting 1 unit = 1%BR)

[shooms79]

Nice ROI. If you can grind that out, damn this can be a wicked system. And yes, in a chase, the moment you start picking and choosing, its a slippery and expensive slope

[TechnicalTrader]

Nice ROI. If you can grind that out, damn this can be a wicked system. And yes, in a chase, the moment you start picking and choosing, its a slippery and expensive slope

Exactly. I am already looking at a couple of situations where two teams' predictions contradict eachother.

Team A is in a third leg of an ATS Win chase, while team B is in it's second. We will have to bet both sides of that game; Team A at 9.43% BR and Team B at 4.2%. The same thing for one of the O/U signals, one team is signaling an under while the other is signaling an over.

You need to remember that each chase is connected to a team (not a matchup).
For those who have followed some of my previous threads. I rarely bet units and my money management is always in %BR.

[TechnicalTrader]

Here we go, 40% of BR at risk here... I might reduce my chase goals to 0.25% BR per chase rather than 0.5%.

Please note that I might have 40% of BR at risk but six of the bets contradict eachother so the actual BR at risk is about 12% less...

DEN	ATS	3.5	9.43%
DEN	ATS	3.5	0.56%
POR	ATS	5	0.56%
POR	ATS	5	1.73%
OKC	ATS	0	4.20%
UTA	ATS	0	9.43%
WAS	ATS	6.5	0.56%
GS	ATS	-6.5	4.20%
CHI/DEN	O	221	4.20%
MEM/PHO	O	211	1.73%
LAL/CHA	U	216	0.56%
LAL/CHA	O	216	0.56%
DET/POR	O	214.5	1.73%
OKC/UTA	U	203	0.56%

[TechnicalTrader]

8-6, up $36.28 (+3.63%)

DEN	ATS	3.5	9.43%	W
DEN	ATS	3.5	0.56%	W
POR	ATS	5	0.56%	L
POR	ATS	5	1.73%	L
OKC	ATS	0	4.20%	W
UTA	ATS	0	9.43%	L
WAS	ATS	6.5	0.56%	W
GS	ATS	-6.5	4.20%	L
CHI/DEN	O	221	4.20%	W
MEM/PHO	O	211	1.73%	W
LAL/CHA	U	216	0.56%	W
LAL/CHA	O	216	0.56%	L
DET/POR	O	214.5	1.73%	W
OKC/UTA	U	203	0.56%	L

I'll take 3.5% on any night.

Current BR: $1,272.86
Profit: $272.86 (27.29% 27.29 units if betting 1 unit = 1%BR)

I'll have Wednesday's games up as soon as I get some lines.

[TechnicalTrader]

DEN	2.5	0.56%
HOU	1.5	0.56%
ATL	-5.5	4.20%
MIA	-8.5	9.43%
SAC	-2.5	1.73%
BKN	2.5	1.73%
ORL	-1.5	0.56%
NYK	1.5	0.56%
TOR	-4	1.73%
WAS	4	0.56%
SAS	-10	0.56%
IND	10	0.56%
MIL/DEN	O225.5	0.56%
LAC/HOU	O232.0	0.56%
ATL/DAL	O195.5	9.43%
MIA/PHI	U212.5	0.56%
UTA/MIN	U200.5	1.73%
SAC/BKN	O216.5	9.43%
SAC/BKN	U216.5	0.56%
NO/DET	O209.0	0.56%
TOR/WAS	O209.0	0.56%
SAS/IND	O208.5	0.56%

[TechnicalTrader]

Rough night, down about 22%. I'll update later

[TechnicalTrader]

All over the place today, will update later...

CHI/GS	O 219.5	0.56%
PHO/CHA	O 219.0	1.17%
POR/OKC	U 219.5	0.56%
GS	-7.5	0.56%
GS	-7.5	1.17%
POR	-1	2.48%
POR	-1	11.03%

[TechnicalTrader]

Down 161.03 on the night:

Current BR: $1,111.83
Profit: $111.83 (11.18% 11.18 units if betting 1 unit = 1%BR)

[TechnicalTrader]

All over the place today, will update later...

CHI/GS	O 219.5	0.56%
PHO/CHA	O 219.0	1.17%
POR/OKC	U 219.5	0.56%
GS	-7.5	0.56%
GS	-7.5	1.17%
POR	-1	2.48%
POR	-1	11.03%

Only hit the PHO/CHA and the PORT ATS, but still had an up night adding 6.28% to the BR.

Current BR: $1,174.65
Profit: $174.65 (17.47% 17.47 units if betting 1 unit = 1%BR)

[TechnicalTrader]

LAC	-4.5	0.56%
ATL	3.0	1.73%
UTA	-13.5	1.73%
BKN	13.5	0.56%
LAL	7.5	1.73%
ORL	3.5	1.73%
NYK	-2.0	0.56%
OKC	-4.0	0.56%
WAS	-5.0	0.56%
TOR	5.0	4.20%
MIL/LAC	O 211.5	1.73%
ATL/CLE	O 214.0	9.43%
UTA/BKN	O 205.5	0.56%
LAL/BOS	O 219.5	1.73%
ORL/MIA	O 208.5	0.56%
DAL/MEM	O 190.0	1.73%
NO/SAS	O 208.0	2.29%
PHI/NYK	U 217.0	0.56%
PHO/OKC	U 225.0	2.29%
WAS/TOR	O 207.0	2.29%

[TechnicalTrader]

Up another 10% or so. System is doing well. I might drop my unit size down even further, just too many bets per day...

Profit today: $111.57

LAC	-4.5	0.56%	L
ATL	3	1.73%	L
UTA	-13.5	1.73%	W
BKN	13.5	0.56%	L
LAL	7.5	1.73%	L
ORL	3.5	1.73%	W
NYK	-2	0.56%	L
OKC	-4	0.56%	L
WAS	-5	0.56%	L
TOR	5	4.20%	W
MIL/LAC	O 211.5	1.73%	W
ATL/CLE	O 214.0	9.43%	W
UTA/BKN	O 205.5	0.56%	W
LAL/BOS	O 219.5	1.73%	L
ORL/MIA	O 208.5	0.56%	W
DAL/MEM	O 190.0	1.73%	W
NO/SAS	O 208.0	2.29%	L
PHI/NYK	U 217.0	0.56%	W
PHO/OKC	U 225.0	2.29%	L
WAS/TOR	O 207.0	2.29%	W

Current BR: $1,286.22
Profit: $286.22 (28.62% 28.62 units if betting 1 unit = 1%BR)

[4everNbluejeans]

I'm interested in your system - looks like you had a good night. I question risking over 9% of your BR on any one game, but then your ATL/CLE sailed over by a mile.

I too am using a technical system carried over from Forex for NBA totals - so far so good.

By the way, without even looking closely I recognized your icon as the EURCHF pair - hope you weren't on the wrong end of that crash. I was.

Good luck!

[TechnicalTrader]

I'm interested in your system - looks like you had a good night. I question risking over 9% of your BR on any one game, but then your ATL/CLE sailed over by a mile.

I too am using a technical system carried over from Forex for NBA totals - so far so good.

By the way, without even looking closely I recognized your icon as the EURCHF pair - hope you weren't on the wrong end of that crash. I was.

Good luck!

first of all, good eye rgding the FX pair. I was on the short side of that trade. I actually placed an SL sell order about two days before that happened. I live in Zurich and there were rumors floating around about the SNB and how it "could" happen. I placed the SL order and completely forgot about it. Well, it took me about 45 minutes to close that position due to traffic. I traded with FXCM back then. Did you see what happened to them?? Crazy sh!t!!

As for 9% BR at risk, I completely agree and thatis why I stated earlier that i was thinking about lowering my initial "to win" position to possibly 0.25%. This system is projected to signal about 8-20 bets a night, so I have no business to be risking 1% BR or even 0.5% BR per "trade" or bet.

What is your totals system based on?

[4everNbluejeans]

yeah, I didn't see your post about lowering your unit size until after I posted.

The system I developed is based on moving averages (something I actually never used in FX) and some other factors I added. It's at 58% on the year. Thinking of shutting it down soon as teams start tanking more and secure playoff teams start resting. NBA gets unpredictable last 10 games or so.

As for Forex - I was running a system with the major pairs that was doing well - took the EURCHF on a recommendation - was thinking of getting out of it from the same rumors you mentioned (I live south of Munich myself). Had a stop of 20 pips, blew right through that - 4000 pips later I was completely wiped out. I too was with FXCM - luckily they honored their terms and erased my negative balance, or it would have been worse. That's why I prefer sports handicapping - can't lose more than you put at risk.

[TechnicalTrader]

I've also played around with an EMA and an SMA but just couldn't find a profitable system. Props to you!

Sprichst du auch Deutsch?

I've traveled to Munich a few times, very nice city. Life is almost as expensive as it is down here in ZH!

Bummer rgding your EUR/CHF position. I agree about sportsbetting. Way more "squares" in this market and a lot less "whales". Tough to fly under the radar like it is trading FX though.

Good stuff. Feel free to check out my MLB threads, both of them are similar to what I'm doing here. One of them will be an over/under - 1st inning and the second will be a simple totals thread.

Bis bald,
TT

[TechnicalTrader]

OK, I've changed the BR% per chase leg. The new target profit per chase is 0.35%.

leg a) 0.39%
leg b) 0.82%
leg c) 1.73%
leg d) 3.66%
leg e) 7.72%

We've only seen 5 "leg e" bets over our first 110+ bets...

I'm guessing worst case scenario, I have 3 different "leg e" bets open during one night, with the rest of them averaging around leg a through d. My total exposure during a very bad scenario would be about 35-40% BR, but some of those bets might hedge eachother. My actual exposure would be around 25-30% (I'm guessing). I'm OK with this....

[4everNbluejeans]

American ex-pat. I speak German, but not well.

I'll check out your MLB thread - I never had a feel for handicapping baseball. I also use my system with a few minor adjustments for the NFL.

I checked how our systems are when put together - we go head-to-head more often than the same direction, and the results are dead even - so we seem to do better when we pick different games, but too small of a sample size to really tell. We are 3-2 when picking the same.

And I hear you on the cost of living - the value of our house has doubled in the last 9 years. Insane!