[Seto]

SOUTHEAST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	DIV	CONF	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	STRK	L10
Miami Heat	10	5	.667	-	8-2	2-3	1-1	5-4	96.3	91.7	+4.7	W1	7-3
Atlanta Hawks	11	7	.611	0.5	6-3	5-4	4-0	7-4	102.9	99.8	+3.1	W1	4-6
Charlotte Hornets	9	7	.563	1.5	7-2	2-5	1-3	5-6	103.4	99.8	+3.6	L1	7-3
Orlando Magic	8	8	.500	2.5	6-3	2-5	0-2	4-5	101.4	100.6	+0.8	W2	6-4
Washington Wizards	6	7	.462	3	3-3	3-4	2-2	5-6	100.5	106.8	-6.2	L3

Said in another thread before the season started I had no opinion on who was going to win this division between Miami/Atlanta/Washington, who all had pretty much the same odds going into the season. Tbh I thought Charlotte was probably better than their win total which was set at 31.5 or something but I clearly didn't think enough or I would've pounded that over.

I think this is a good team. They won 43 games 2 years ago after a very average start to the season, and seemed poised to kick on last year and do even better before the Lance Stephenson disaster as well as repeated injuries to their 2 best players in Walker and Jefferson ruined their season.

This year, the only player of note they lost is Stephenson (and that could be considered a major win for them). Meanwhile they've added Nic Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Jeremy Lamb who have all become key players in their rotation. You could argue this roster is much better than the one that won 43 2 years ago, and they have more experience as well. They did lose MKG for the season but he probably hurts their floor spacing just as much as he helps their defense.

To talk about the other teams, I'm going to discount the Magic, they have nice young players but they'll be a 35-40 win team most likely at best. The Wizards' roster sucks outside of Wall and Beal and they look to have picked up right where they left off when they tailed off in the second half of last season. So basically it comes down to Miami and Atlanta. Miami has a great starting 5 but an average bench and in my mind not enough shooters. They also have many injury prone players. Now obviously Charlotte do as well but keep in mind the +3300 price. If injuries happen they happen, it's not like there's much risk involved. As for the Hawks, I don't really know. I have a hard time figuring out how well they'll end up doing this year. But I have no problem trying this at +3300 with that as the only real unknown. As of now, my random prediction would be Atlanta 49 wins, Miami 47 and Charlotte 46. So if it's really gonna be this close it's worth a shot. I personally feel this deserves +1000 odds or so. Could be way off though.

I realise this may sound silly to some people, but feel like it's worth a shot

[new era]

They may sneak into the playoffs, but its hard to imagine they will top Hawks or Heat.

[Seto]

Obviously still very early but how many people are starting to believe in this team?

[Seto]

SOUTHEAST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	DIV	CONF	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	STRK	L10
Atlanta Hawks	31	24	.564	-	17-9	14-15	6-5	19-15	102.4	99.7	+2.7	W1	5-5
Miami Heat	29	24	.547	1	16-11	13-13	6-4	16-15	96.0	96.3	-0.3	L2	6-4
Charlotte Hornets	27	26	.509	3	19-9	8-17	5-6	17-13	102.1	100.9	+1.1	W3	7-3
Washington Wizards	23	27	.460	5.5	11-16	12-11	7-4	17-15	102.9	105.5	-2.6	W1	4-6
Orlando Magic	23	29	.442	6.5	14-13	9-16	3-8	13-19	99.4	100.8	-1.4	L1	3-7

Only 2 games back in the loss column at the break. Given the myriad of injuries they've had where they basically had 4 or 5 guys either out or playing hurt for the best part of 2 months, it's hard not to go into "what if" mode but all things considered it's good this at least still has a chance. They have a really easy schedule in March with lots of home games and lots of bad teams so I'm certainly hoping they can do it. Would be a massive hit in what has been a forgettable season to this point.

[t-wizzle]

It's a great bet. You could probably hedge out if you wanted to.

[IBetYou]

What if Jefferson had been healthy you ask? They'd have a worse record, is the answer.

[Seto]

It's a great bet. You could probably hedge out if you wanted to.

Ha the funny thing is when they were having all these injuries and fell 5 games back I took a look at the odds and saw they were still about +1200, so I figured since I have better odds than the current odds maybe I can try something. I went on live chat and asked them if I could cash out and they basically (obviously not in so many words) told me to fukk off

Would be funny if it cashed after that.

The thing is given Miami and Atlanta's odds it's not really easy do to any kind of hedge. Anyway, I'm content at riding it out and trying to get those 7 grand. At this point I have a legitimate shot so hedging out for 400-500 or so would be kinda defying the whole point.

[Seto]

What if Jefferson had been healthy you ask? They'd have a worse record, is the answer.

When did I specifically mention Jefferson? Not that I agree but they've had many other injuries. Also it's hard to believe they couldn't have been better with him when they were reeling and lost 9 of 10 including pathetic losses to teams like Phoenix and Denver.

Nic Batum has been their best player this year along with Walker and he either played hurt or was out injured for like a month and a half. He's finally starting to play well again in February. Other important rotation guys for them like Lin, Lamb, Zeller have been in and out of the lineup continuously. And then obviously comes Jefferson. They rode Jefferson to closing out the season as one of the hottest teams in the league 2 years back.

[IBetYou]

ok fair enough hehe

[IBetYou]

Jefferson was dirt poor early in the season. He needs to get in shape if he's going to be effective -that's not easy for him, having been on the shelf a while. Hawes has flourished in his absence.

[t-wizzle]

Batum has had a great year. I was worried about him after last season. He really struggled. Good to see him playing well because he does so many good things out there. Really a valuable player in today's league when he plays like this.

[Seto]

Batum has had a great year. I was worried about him after last season. He really struggled. Good to see him playing well because he does so many good things out there. Really a valuable player in today's league when he plays like this.

Yeah he did look pretty bad last year. Probably needed a change of scenery and an offense that featured him a bit more. He's been the key to their 2 really good stretches of the season - their 14-8 start and this recent surge in the last couple weeks. Hopefully he can stay healthy for the stretch run.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

decent value but I got a sneaking suspicion that they will regress 2nd half of the season like teams sometimes do. good luck though

[RyleeCashflow]

SOUTHEAST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	DIV	CONF	PPG	OPP PPG	DIFF	STRK	L10
Miami Heat	10	5	.667	-	8-2	2-3	1-1	5-4	96.3	91.7	+4.7	W1	7-3
Atlanta Hawks	11	7	.611	0.5	6-3	5-4	4-0	7-4	102.9	99.8	+3.1	W1	4-6
Charlotte Hornets	9	7	.563	1.5	7-2	2-5	1-3	5-6	103.4	99.8	+3.6	L1	7-3
Orlando Magic	8	8	.500	2.5	6-3	2-5	0-2	4-5	101.4	100.6	+0.8	W2	6-4
Washington Wizards	6	7	.462	3	3-3	3-4	2-2	5-6	100.5	106.8	-6.2	L3

Said in another thread before the season started I had no opinion on who was going to win this division between Miami/Atlanta/Washington, who all had pretty much the same odds going into the season. Tbh I thought Charlotte was probably better than their win total which was set at 31.5 or something but I clearly didn't think enough or I would've pounded that over.

I think this is a good team. They won 43 games 2 years ago after a very average start to the season, and seemed poised to kick on last year and do even better before the Lance Stephenson disaster as well as repeated injuries to their 2 best players in Walker and Jefferson ruined their season.

This year, the only player of note they lost is Stephenson (and that could be considered a major win for them). Meanwhile they've added Nic Batum, Jeremy Lin, and Jeremy Lamb who have all become key players in their rotation. You could argue this roster is much better than the one that won 43 2 years ago, and they have more experience as well. They did lose MKG for the season but he probably hurts their floor spacing just as much as he helps their defense.

To talk about the other teams, I'm going to discount the Magic, they have nice young players but they'll be a 35-40 win team most likely at best. The Wizards' roster sucks outside of Wall and Beal and they look to have picked up right where they left off when they tailed off in the second half of last season. So basically it comes down to Miami and Atlanta. Miami has a great starting 5 but an average bench and in my mind not enough shooters. They also have many injury prone players. Now obviously Charlotte do as well but keep in mind the +3300 price. If injuries happen they happen, it's not like there's much risk involved. As for the Hawks, I don't really know. I have a hard time figuring out how well they'll end up doing this year. But I have no problem trying this at +3300 with that as the only real unknown. As of now, my random prediction would be Atlanta 49 wins, Miami 47 and Charlotte 46. So if it's really gonna be this close it's worth a shot. I personally feel this deserves +1000 odds or so. Could be way off though.

I realise this may sound silly to some people, but feel like it's worth a shot

Tailing.

Why not, i'll throw some small change.

[louielouie]

What is the price now?

[IBetYou]

MKG has suffered a torn labrum -likely out for the season. What a downer.

[Ballin24]

Ya this bet is most likely done with the MKG news

[Seto]

Tailing.

Why not, i'll throw some small change.

Price shouldn't be available anymore. If it is, please let me know lol. This is from very early in the season.

[Seto]

What is the price now?

Ranges between +800 and +1600 from what I saw yesterday. I'm hesitating to add some at +1600.

[Seto]

MKG has suffered a torn labrum -likely out for the season. What a downer.

Can't fukking catch a break. Let's wait to see if he actually decides to go under the knife but it seems likely.

If the rest of the team could just stay healthy I definitely still feel ok about it though. I think they have a favourable schedule compared to the Heat and Hawks.

[Seto]

Absolutely fukking massive win for Charlotte today.

Miami Heat(3)	39	29	.574	-	22-13	17-16	8-5	24-19	99.0	97.9	+1.1	L1	7-3
Atlanta Hawks(4)	39	29	.574	-	21-12	18-17	7-6	23-18	102.3	98.9	+3.4	W3	8-2
Charlotte Hornets(6)	39	29	.574	-	26-10	13-19	7-7	25-15	103.3	101.0	+2.3	W2	9-1
Washington Wizards	33	35	.485	6	18-17	15-18	7-5	24-20	103.0	104.2	-1.2	W3	5-5
Orlando Magic	29	38	.433	9.5	18-16	11-22	3-9	16-22	100.8	102.9	-2.1	L1	4-6

Atlanta will soon move to 40-29 when they finish off Denver. I'd say they have the tougher schedule of the 3. The Hornets still have the Nets and Sixers twice. They're playing really good ball, I fukking pray they can do it. I'd say they need to go 9-5, possibly 10-4. What's annoying is they have neither tiebreaker.

[terrenceross]

Nice win tonight.

[louielouie]

great bet man well done

[sando]

Seto great call! Now look in that profit son, no need to ride all the way. Green books...

[louielouie]

definitely hedge and make money man

[Seto]

Absolutely no way I'm hedging. Maybe I could if there was only 1 team involved. But since there are 2 any profit I'd lock in would be laughable. Miami is +175 and Atlanta +187 I think lol. I'd have to give up like 5 or the 7 grand I'm gonna make to hedge. If it loses it loses.

It's clearly an all or nothing situation here. Anyway, hedging is in theory a -EV situation unless you've changed your mind about the bet which is 100% not the case here.

[olamide]

Hedging the bets doesn't make sense to me. Either win it all or lose it all. Keep riding it...pray you win this.

[IBetYou]

massive win? calm down, it's just 1 game; a half game for each.

[IBetYou]

The good thing about the Hornets' performance last night is it re-affirms that they're playing v.well. But as for the actual win itself, they'll need several more massive wins because they sure aint getting any help from the competition -not in a 3 horse race, i.e injuries may knock out one of those teams but probably not both.

[DOM-Ganador]

Hope you cash and can send a pic of the guy paying off +3300...

[16kredit]

Lol I cashed out, was a chicken. But good luck Seto. I did not see this outcome vs miami, hornets are shitty on the road

[rm18]

unreal thought this was a winner

[BigNik]

Can't believe this. Put this in a parlay and this is the last leg. Pathetic

[BigNik]

A nice little 10-0 run to start the fourth would be real nice

[rm18]

This is funny to me on google

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