[Seto]

Yeah I took them live at the end of the 3rd quarter, big mistake. Big question is do they bounce back in game 2. Books opened game 2 at Raptors -7, so looks like they expect a bounce back game. If I remember right, they squeezed out a close one in game 2 against the Nets two years ago and obviously lost to Washington in game 2 last year.

Yeah they covered that game against the Nets by a half point (-4.5) but were trailing much of the 4th quarter and were still tied with a couple minutes left. I just can't bet on this team anymore.

[KRIT]

Yeah they covered that game against the Nets by a half point (-4.5) but were trailing much of the 4th quarter and were still tied with a couple minutes left. I just can't bet on this team anymore.

Probably the smart move.

[Seto]

It's already hard to beat the Warriors 5 on 5, damn near impossible 5 on 8.

So many things point towards this just being one of those seasons where everything goes wrong, but I've gotta try to push through it.

[Seto]

Today: 0-2, -6.75x
Total: 73-112-4, -49.2x

Celtics+6.5 -110 (justbet) (risking 3.3x to win 3x)
Celtics ml +220 (justbet) (risking 1x to win 2.2x)

[Seto]

Guess who had Cavs second half?????

0:11		J.R. Smith defensive rebound	96 - 104
0:11		Marcus Morris personal foul (J.R. Smith draws the foul)	96 - 104
0:11		J.R. Smith misses free throw 1 of 2	96 - 104
0:11		Cavaliers offensive team rebound	96 - 104
0:11		J.R. Smith makes free throw 2 of 2	96 - 105
0:11		Pistons 20 Sec. timeout	96 - 105
0:05		Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tobias Harris assists)	99 - 105
0:05		Kentavious Caldwell-Pope personal foul (Kyrie Irving draws the foul)	99 - 105
0:05		Kyrie Irving misses free throw 1 of 2	99 - 105
0:05		Cavaliers offensive team rebound	99 - 105
0:05		Kyrie Irving makes free throw 2 of 2	99 - 106
0:00		Reggie Jackson makes driving layup	101 - 106
0:00		End of the 4th Quarter	101 - 106
0:00		End of Game	101 - 106

I don't know why I'm bothering with this season anymore. It seems like I'm just fighting a lost cause.

[t-wizzle]

Are you fading Atlanta like you did last year? I remember you made good coin doing that in the playoffs last year.

[Seto]

Are you fading Atlanta like you did last year? I remember you made good coin doing that in the playoffs last year.

I got a bit overzealous with it a couple times (Nets game 6 and Wizards game 6) but overall I made quite a bit doing it yeah, hitting the sweep play on the Cavs was cool. Actually if I think about it over the course of my life in the playoffs I typically do really well with the middle section of series (games 3, 4, 5) but struggle early and late for some reason.

As far as my bet for Tuesday kinda. I like this series to be close so I had my mind set on taking whoever lost game 1 in game 2 (will be taking Charlotte as well). I think Boston is a bit tougher of a team and I expect them to win enough of the 50-50 balls and shit, in particular since people will probably start writing them off with the Bradley injury. If Isaiah Thomas can take over he's probably the best player in this series, which quite frankly says more about Atlanta than Boston but whatever.

Like anything tomorrow? Those series don't inspire much to me.

[bryant81]

The problem with Bradley being out means that Hawks can pay even more attention to Isaiah Thomas by helping off of Marcus Smart. Thomas has already struggled against this Hawks team this year, the Bradley injury won't help.

[t-wizzle]

I haven't really looked at series prices much. I might take Toronto again. And then laugh when they lose again.

[Seto]

The problem with Bradley being out means that Hawks can pay even more attention to Isaiah Thomas by helping off of Marcus Smart. Thomas has already struggled against this Hawks team this year, the Bradley injury won't help.

It's true Bradley's absence will hurt them on both ends. I just feel like this will be one of those "next man up" games. Everyone will contribute. Then the Hawks will smack them in game 3, Boston bounces back in game 4 and we take it from there. That's my feel for it now, obviously it can change.

[Seto]

Today: 0-2, -4.3x
Total: 73-114-4, -53.5x

Dunno what was more painful, losing the bet or watching that game. At least it wasn't close. It's really frustrating these 2 teams are playing each other as I'm pretty convinced both would get bitchslapped by the Hornets or Heat but unfortunately we don't get to choose the matchups and it's on me to be better than what I've been so far.

Hornets+4.5 -110 (justbet) (risking 4.4x to win 4x)

I like them to tie this thing up but I'm only going spread because I've seen them struggle with late game execution quite a bit and Miami has guys who regularly perform in the clutch. Wouldn't be surprised to see a Joe Johnson or Wade game winner tbh.

The other 2 games are tough. I like the Cavs a bit, I just feel like Detroit is outmatched in this series and mostly stayed in game 1 because their role players shot the lights out from 3. They have the coaching edge though and 10 points is a lot to give up to the Cavs. In the late one I expect a better effort from Portland but I might wait until they head back to the Rose Garden to take them.

[Seto]

Today: 0-1, -4.4x
Total: 73-115-4, -57.9x

If I were smart I'd either give up or start doing the opposite Costanza-style. Just can't get anything going. Combination of many things, and unfortunately not much if anything at all has gone right since the first 3 weeks of the season.

Of course there's still a lot of time to set things right, multiple times during the playoffs I've won upwards of 50 units in a week. But it doesn't feel like it'll happen this season. I hope I'm wrong. Vibes are just so negative right now.

[t-wizzle]

I locked in Hornets last night and regretted it all day. Something about that move back to 5 didn't sit well with me. I stuck it out because I rarely ever buy out of a play but I had a feeling all day we were on the wrong side.

Miami is just playing great basketball right now. I didn't watch tonight's game but it doesn't surprise me they went off again. Charlotte could tie it up at home but it's going to be tough for them.

[t-wizzle]

Houston might be the play tomorrow if Curry is out. That game was much closer than the final score. GSW struggles without Steph. Iguodala shot the lights out the other night but they don't really have anyone who can create his own shot and as a result they really need to work a clean offense.

[Seto]

I locked in Hornets last night and regretted it all day. Something about that move back to 5 didn't sit well with me. I stuck it out because I rarely ever buy out of a play but I had a feeling all day we were on the wrong side.

Miami is just playing great basketball right now. I didn't watch tonight's game but it doesn't surprise me they went off again. Charlotte could tie it up at home but it's going to be tough for them.

Yeah I've warmed to Miami a lot lately, they've found this kid Richardson off the bench who's a lethal 3 point shooter, Deng looks like the Luol Deng of 3-4 years ago, Whiteside is a lot better than I thought he was, and I could go on and on. I contemplated taking them at +1600 to win the East as the only team that can challenge Cleveland in my mind but I decided against it.

Still I expected Charlotte to be better especially defensively. Now that Batum could be out it's a long way back for them. This thing is probably over in 5 or 6.

[Seto]

Houston might be the play tomorrow if Curry is out. That game was much closer than the final score. GSW struggles without Steph. Iguodala shot the lights out the other night but they don't really have anyone who can create his own shot and as a result they really need to work a clean offense.

Warriors are clearly a very different team without Steph and I agree Houston getting 5 is very tempting should he be out. On paper they should win at home. The thing is this team is so fukking dumb. The game got out of hand for them when they kept fouling Klay off the ball and just gifted him like 9 free throws in the 4th. Also I just can't watch Dwight Howard anymore. He's an abomination. I'd bench his stupid ass and play Capela instead. They seem to play so much better when he's in and Dwight's out.

[JayDr3am]

Yeah I've warmed to Miami a lot lately, they've found this kid Richardson off the bench who's a lethal 3 point shooter, Deng looks like the Luol Deng of 3-4 years ago, Whiteside is a lot better than I thought he was, and I could go on and on. I contemplated taking them at +1600 to win the East as the only team that can challenge Cleveland in my mind but I decided against it.

Still I expected Charlotte to be better especially defensively. Now that Batum could be out it's a long way back for them. This thing is probably over in 5 or 6.

the kid richardson was RAINING 3's today

[fitguy67]

surprisingly good 6-page pdf on NBA-playoff betting

available from here http://get.sportsinsights.com/nbastr...ampaign=buffer

the last section on identifying a statistically-successful range of spread-bet-% (a contrarian "sweet spot") is especially interesting

[Seto]

I think I might just wait for the 2nd round. I have no feel for any of these series. These games are awful to watch too, so many fukking blowouts. I find myself watching baseball during games because the game is over midway through the 3rd. I'd say it's probably been overall the least entertaining season by far I've followed since I've started watching the NBA, maybe some of it has to do with the gambling but unless you cared about the Warriors chasing 73 (I didn't), there hasn't been much to get excited about.

[fitguy67]

hot off the press...

injury-adjusted win-prob's from Ed Feng, a top hoops-by-numbers guy...

presented in an extra-cool interactive-graphics format...almost makes me wish i gave a shit about (beyond occasionally betting on) basketball

http://thepowerrank.com/nba-playoff-interactive-visual/

[Seto]

hot off the press...

injury-adjusted win-prob's from Ed Feng, a top hoops-by-numbers guy...

presented in an extra-cool interactive-graphics format...almost makes me wish i gave a shit about (beyond occasionally betting on) basketball

http://thepowerrank.com/nba-playoff-interactive-visual/

These things are always a bit flawed.

Like Portland having 0.7% chance to win it all for instance. Unless every team they face has their 3 best players get injured, they have zero chance. I'd pin that at 0.001% at best. Or Indiana at 0.4%. Or Charlotte at 1.3%. Those types of surprises just don't exist in the NBA. Obviously I'm nitpicking but it still frustrates me when I see stuff like that. At least the Clippers have a zero.

38% on the Spurs is a lot. I hope it's correct. It's basically the only thing that can realistically save my season at this point.

[Seto]

Probably back for the second round. I'm beyond frustrated with all this shit but I guess it's still theoretically possible for it to turn around a bit.

At least the games have been a bit better lately.

[t-wizzle]

Who you liking tonight? Are we getting a couple East Game 7s?

[amrit]

I definitely like Indy tonight, but weird feeling Charlotte closes out the series.

[fitguy67]

Total: 73-115-4, -57.9x

...there's still a lot of time to set things right...

"sports-betting psychology" suggestion

set that -57.9u albatross aside by designating it as 2015/16's "reg-season plus r1-playoffs" record...

don't bury it...include it at the very top/bottom of any posts reporting your 2015/16 NBA "playoffs r2 and beyond"...but de-emphasize the results before the reboot relative to the new stuff that you'll henceforth be focusing on... and do NOT ever bother to add the two together until the last game of the finals is decided (you've posted it, so anyone wanting to add them together can do so...but best to let a clean slate do it's job till then)

where 'ya are right now should be the only thing on your windscreen...and the only meaningful goal is doing the best you can with what's left, independent of how "what came before" went...don't let it cast a pall or worse yet, provide you a "revenge target"

you can get the full benefits of a clean slate without abandoning this thread and starting another, by just rebooting your tallies at 0-0,+0.00...
as long as somewhere on the same post you state
"reg-season & playoffs-r1: 73-115-4, -57.9u"
this way, you are both re-booting your record for very-real motivational reasons AND practicing full-disclosure

just a suggestion...good luck the rest of the way

[Seto]

"sports-betting psychology" suggestion

set that -57.9u albatross aside by designating it as 2015/16's "reg-season plus r1-playoffs" record...

don't bury it...include it at the very top/bottom of any posts reporting your 2015/16 NBA "playoffs r2 and beyond"...but de-emphasize the results before the reboot relative to the new stuff that you'll henceforth be focusing on... and do NOT ever bother to add the two together until the last game of the finals is decided (you've posted it, so anyone wanting to add them together can do so...but best to let a clean slate do it's job till then)

where 'ya are right now should be the only thing on your windscreen...and the only meaningful goal is doing the best you can with what's left, independent of how "what came before" went...don't let it cast a pall or worse yet, provide you a "revenge target"

you can get the full benefits of a clean slate without abandoning this thread and starting another, by just rebooting your tallies at 0-0,+0.00...
as long as somewhere on the same post you state
"reg-season & playoffs-r1: 73-115-4, -57.9u"
this way, you are both re-booting your record for very-real motivational reasons AND practicing full-disclosure

just a suggestion...good luck the rest of the way

I see where you're coming from and I appreciate your wanting to help out. To be honest I don't really think much about that record, obviously I'd like to end the season being up in this thread so as not to have my first losing season on this site but it's not like it's a primary concern. Anyway, it's not like this is something I can get back in one play. The only way I get back this entire NBA season's losses in one shot is if I win my Spurs future, but that's not posted here lol. So any new plays I make won't be dictated by that record, not to worry. It is what it is.

There are other NBA bets I don't post here (mainly live bets) and stuff in other sports so the only number that I really think about is my overall record accross the board, which sucks this season. It annoys the hell out of me but I can't really do much about it now. I'm fairly confident this is just a bad year and will prove to be an exception but I clearly have to be a bit better to get to where I want to get. Obviously it'll always sort of me in the corner of my head until I get it all back but that's just something I have to live with. I've done a good job lately of just getting on with stuff and enjoying myself and not worrying too much about this shit, even though it's really important.

[Seto]

Cavs to win series 4-0 +500 (bet365) (risking 1x to win 5x)

Taking the same bet as last year. I think this has a legit shot. Probably taking Heat series price for about 5 units, I really feel like they'll win that and I actually think it might not be a very long series.

[KRIT]

Good to see you back. I agree that Cavs take care of business fast with Atlanta. Don't see it going more than 5 games, Cavs matchup too well with Atlanta.

I don't have great feel for the games tonight. I want to take OKC off the big loss, but might just wait to take them until the series swings back to City.

[Seto]

Good to see you back. I agree that Cavs take care of business fast with Atlanta. Don't see it going more than 5 games, Cavs matchup too well with Atlanta.

I don't have great feel for the games tonight. I want to take OKC off the big loss, but might just wait to take them until the series swings back to City.

I think it's best to wait for game 3 for OKC yeah. I really think the Spurs take care of them in 5 this time. They're even better than in 2014 and OKC is basically the same team, they have a couple new faces on the bench but to me, they're the same team.

I'm tempted to take the Blazers tomorrow but that's another one where we might be better off waiting til it swings back to the Rose Garden. Only problem is Curry is back then. If only we could trust Portland to put in a strong defensive effort.

[fitguy67]

good start, slay the rest of this 8-team tourney with only 3 legit contenders

[Seto]

good start, slay the rest of this 8-team tourney with only 3 legit contenders

Just gotta hope they keep their focus throughout the series but they look like a team that doesn't want to fukk around to me. They could've easily dropped a game in the Detroit series but stayed locked in. I think part of it is LeBron is getting older and doesn't want to bother playing extra games like in Miami where they often didn't show up for game 3 or game 4 on the road, and part of it is their team remembering getting so banged up during last year's playoffs so they probably want to avoid playing unneccesary games.

I mean it's not a lock by any means but I think it has a shot. They'll drop a game or two in the ECF if they play Miami.

[Seto]

Bullshit ending in that Spurs game yesterday. They're probably an easy play in game 3. I actually still think they win in 5, this reminds me of the 2011 WCF. I just gotta see if I want to invest more money in them, sometimes I hesitate about betting on individual games if I have futures pending.

[t-wizzle]

What do you think about tonight? Raptors look good man. Think they'll be riding high from the other night. Miami probably wins the series but it should be tight.

[Don_Omarion]

Bullshit ending in that Spurs game yesterday. They're probably an easy play in game 3. I actually still think they win in 5, this reminds me of the 2011 WCF. I just gotta see if I want to invest more money in them, sometimes I hesitate about betting on individual games if I have futures pending.

I like them to win game 3 also , they opened +1,5 and now -1,5 ... do not you think Bookies will win much if they lost ? so it may be rigged ??

[Seto]

What do you think about tonight? Raptors look good man. Think they'll be riding high from the other night. Miami probably wins the series but it should be tight.

I like Miami for the series. Not too sure how it goes game to game. I sort of considered waiting for the first game or two to get a feel for it but +150 is too good to pass up, especially considering most places have +125 or so.