[jsdjason]

Nevermind, maybe it's not mathematically +EV. Given what I've capped though, it's +EV IMO.

[Conqueror]

So would a series bet on HOU be a "value" bet?

[jsdjason]

So would a series bet on HOU be a "value" bet?

Yeah, shit I think I miscalculated something along the way. Still +EV given what I capped for the remaining games. I give Houston about a 9% chance.

[DRB]

Hey Jason:

Try to break the problem into 2 pieces :

Part 1 : Houston wins the next 2
Part 2 : Houston wins 2 of 3

I would be happy to work on this with you for fun if you'd like.
I said 20:1 yesterday but I see 15:1 on 5Dimes right now. Pinny doesn't have a price yet.

[jsdjason]

Hey Jason:

Try to break the problem into 2 pieces :

Part 1 : Houston wins the next 2
Part 2 : Houston wins 2 of 3

I would be happy to work on this with you for fun if you'd like.
I said 20:1 yesterday but I see 15:1 on 5Dimes right now. Pinny doesn't have a price yet.

5 dimes has it at +1750 on reduced juice. I went back over it and at +1750 you need the Rockets to have about a 5.5% chance? So my original post, that I removed, was actually correct. I just confused myself there for a second. Historically teams have come back from this like 6.1% of the time. I would give them better odds than that. So definitely +EV if you can get the reduced juice.

I mean if you win 55 out of 1,000 you've got $96,250 in winnings and $94,500 in losses for +$1,750. So I'm definitely on this.

[DRB]

Well how do you like that ! If +1750 is reduced juice( a little juice ), that means the 20:1 we talked about yesterday must be
in the " fair bet " ballpark for long term expectation. Good luck!

[jsdjason]

Well how do you like that ! If +1750 is reduced juice( a little juice ), that means the 20:1 we talked about yesterday must be
in the " fair bet " ballpark for long term expectation. Good luck!

Thx man, you too.