[J.M. Disciple]

Hi Everyone,

I know its super late in the season, but I came up with something that could potentially be a long term system and possibly make us a few dollars to close out the final 6 weeks of the NBA season.

The system is very simple as we wait for a team to score 79 points or less and chase their next four games to go under 1 out of the 4 games. This season system is 50-0 with two series going to D or the 4th game. I do not have the break down of the four tiers (A-B-C-D) just the overall series record. I only did a quick manual test of this season. I was hoping someone could data mine this and come up with past results.


SERIES RECORD: 50-0

OPEN SERIES
3/2/15 PHI (A)
3/2/15 PHO (A)
3/3/15 MEM (B)

[FlyinAir]

I like it a lot.

[petermoon]

You are laying -1900 on each series ($110, $230, $500, $1050).

You win $100 if one of the four games goes under, and you lose $1,900 if all 4 games go over.

If two teams go 0-4, you lose 38 units.

Your system is great if you think it will go 500-0, but no system ever does that.

Roger Federer was 210-0 in majors after winning the first two sets, and then Jo-Wilfred Tsonga came back and crushed him.

I lost my whole account on that. I was convinced that any system that wins 200 consecutive times can't lose.

[J.M. Disciple]

series record: 51-0 (4 GAME SERIES)

Overall record since posting: 1-2 (ATS)

3/2/15 PHI (A)
3/2/15 PHO (A)
3/3/15 MEM (B)

Open series
3/4/15 BOS (A)
3/4/15 PHO (B)
3/4/15 PHI (B)

[J.M. Disciple]

series record: 52-0 (4 GAME SERIES)

UPDATE
3/4/15 BOS (A)
3/4/15 PHO (B)
3/4/15 PHI (B)

Open series:
3/6/2015 PHI (C)
3/6/2015 PHO (C)

[J.M. Disciple]

Overall record since posting 4-4

update
3/6/2015 PHI (C)
3/6/2015 PHO (C)

series record: 54-0 (4 GAME SERIES)

open series
3/9/2015 PHO (A)

[qweretyq]

You are laying -1900 on each series ($110, $230, $500, $1050).

Your system is great if you think it will go 500-0, but no system ever does that.

If you are laying -1900, then you just need it to go 20-0, not 500-0, right?
I do agree his sample size of 50ish-0 is too small to tell if it is profitable though

[J.M. Disciple]

If you are laying -1900, then you just need it to go 20-0, not 500-0, right?
I do agree his sample size of 50ish-0 is too small to tell if it is profitable though

I just ignore people that say 500-0 to be profitable. I am hoping if this gets a 5-10 year back test that it is profitable flat betting. No real data sample right now though.

[J.M. Disciple]

Overall record since posting 5-4

update
3/9/2015 PHO (A)

series record: 55-0 (4 GAME SERIES)

open series
3/10/15 NYK (A)
3/11/15 CHA (A)
3/11/15 MIN (A)

[nash13]

i am looking for sample data, will get back to you soon

[nash13]

Since 1995:
3219 games matched that category.
1560 of them ended under in 1 game after that.
758 of the rest ended under in the 2nd chase
382 of the remaining games ended under in the 3rd chase
178 ended under in the 4th step

means:178 losses
in my calculations you win:2878 units, but loose a lot more.

[nash13]

in SDQL codes: pppp:points<=79 and pp:O and p:O and ppp:O gives you the number of games who does not reach Under for 3 straight times.

[J.M. Disciple]

3219 chases and 178 losses (178*16u = 2848) = +371u

also note 371 units is not a lot over 15 seasons, but that is an average of 24u a season. Definitely beats stock if the numbers are correct....

[nash13]

oh sorry my mistake then. i thought the losses are 38 units?