I placed my first sports wager. 11/30/13, Nets @ Grizzlies u186. My cousin advised me to play this game, and after some "research", i decided to take the plunge. I set aside the cash I needed for rent and gave the rest to one of my coworkers who was a small time local. I paid 374 to win 340. the original goal was to hit one game, double up and have a good chunk of change to buy the family some christmas presents.
The first half got off to a slow start and it looked like a solid winner. Then the pace picked up 2nd H and i was left to sweat what eventually turned turned out to be a 1 point cover. I still remember that day like it was yesterday. I was hooked. I wont try to sugarcoat anything, i AM a gambling addict.
long story short, my original plan to play one game didnt work. Bad bankroll management did me in, and i went bust on december 10th. I had to help a friend remove snow, but i made back my losses and had a nice christmas.
I got back in action in mid january, and initially everything went great. i ran a 300 roll up to 1400. but im sure you see where this is heading... i busted again. and again. and again. and again. I was picking winners at a 52.1% clip, but chasing losses was my achilles heel.
I lost $2,274 on the NBA last season. unwilling to quit, i looked for methods to improve my handicapping and start winning. Ive been silently reading SBR from the beginning, trying to absorb as much knowledge as possible. I began developing a model using APBRmetrics. It very quickly turned into an obsession. I have spent at least 500 hours refining my calculations, and i think I am ready to go live. my last 135 air bets have gone 73-58-4. much like dollars to donuts, i believe the path to success is high volume grinding to beat variance. all bets will be for 5% of my bankroll. record keeping will be in units.
I bought 1.5 BTC today. my goal is to have 10 coins by seasons end.
so here i am again, giving it another shot. constructive discussion is always welcomed, so please chime in as to whether you like a certain pick or think its garbage.
I am not saying you should do exactly how I do things, but the principle behind it is the best I know of for people who can't consistently hit the percentage they need for flat betting -- which is 99% of people
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Its been exactly 14 months since....
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