[OoDeBaby]

Hi All

I developed a new model for capping NBA games and it hit 64% in the Month of December. Its mostly stats-driven with a little insight from myself. I want to officially track it here, where I can hopefully share the wealth a bit and give out some free winners.

There's a huge card for me today so I figured we get this started off with a bang. I bet 3-10% on each of my plays and I consider 1 unit to be 1% of my bankroll. I get all my lines from 5Dimes. Without further ado lets get to todays picks.

12/30

Cleveland +4.5 (-108) 3u
Memphis -2 (-105) 5u
New Orleans -1.5 (-105) 4u
Dallas -5.5 (-101) 3u
Denver -6.5 (-108) 4u
Toronto +2.5 (-105) 9u
Golden State - 17.5 (-108) 7u


Lets start this out right!

[pacocn]

What does your model and your input suggest for the Mem/Spurs game?

[OoDeBaby]

What does your model and your input suggest for the Mem/Spurs game?

My model has Memphis by a bit. They're the better team right now IMO and at home a line of -2 isn't big enough. Sucks Randolph won't play but SA just isn't the same without Kawhi and Parker. Wouldn't be surprised to see a double digit W at home

[OoDeBaby]

12/30 Results

Cleveland +4.5 (-108) 3u
Memphis -2 (-105) 5u
New Orleans -1.5 (-105) 4u
Dallas -5.5 (-101) 3u
Denver -6.5 (-108) 4u
Toronto +2.5 (-105) 9u
Golden State - 17.5 (-108) 7u

A very rough loss in OT for Toronto turns what would have bee a huge night into just a small win. Really sucks but still can't complain about having a winning day. We'll keep it going on this last day of 2014

12/30 - 4-3 +1.99U

YTD - 4-3 (57.1%)+1.99u

[OoDeBaby]

12/31 Plays

Miami +4.5 (-105) 5u
Cleveland -4.5 (-102) 3u
New Orleans +5 (-101) 3u
Charlotte +12 (-105) 8u
Phoenix +7.5 (-105) 4u

Lets End 2014 with a bang!

[OoDeBaby]

12/31 Results

Miami +4.5 (-105) 5u
Cleveland -4.5 (-102) 3u
New Orleans +5 (-101) 3u
Charlotte +12 (-105) 8u
Phoenix +7.5 (-105) 4u

First losing day in a while, feels alot worse than 2-3 with another high unit loss for the second straight day, but I have a lot of confidence in them going forward.

12/30 - 2-3 -9.71u

YTD - 6-6 (50%) -7.72u

[OoDeBaby]

1/2 Plays

New Orleans +2 (-105) 8u
Phoenix -14 (-108) 6u
Toronto +5 (-108) 6u
LA Lakers +4.5 (-103) 4u

First plays of 2015 for me. Lets get this train rolling

[OoDeBaby]

1/2 Results

New Orleans +2 (-105) 8u
Phoenix -14 (-108) 6u
Toronto +5 (-108) 6u
LA Lakers +4.5 (-103) 4u

That's a little more like it, time to string a few of these togeter

1/2 3-1 +11.52u

YTD 9-7 (56.3%) +3.8u

[OoDeBaby]

1/3 Plays

Charlotte +4.5 (-102) 3u
Utah - 1 (+102) 3u
Miami +7.5 (-105) 6u
LA Clippers -19 (-103) 7u

Continuing to fire these big spreads against PHI and expecting it to keep winning. Been good so far

[OoDeBaby]

1/3 Results


Charlotte +4.5 (-102) 3u
Utah - 1 (+102) 3u
Miami +7.5 (-105) 6u
LA Clippers -19 (-103) 7u

Another 3-1 night brings us to 60%. Lets keep it there going forward

1/3 3-1 +6.7u

YTD 12-8 (60%) +10.6u

[OoDeBaby]

1/4 Plays

Toronto +1 (-108) 5u
LA Lakers +1.5 (-105) 6u

Just two plays today, going for a nice little sweep.

[OoDeBaby]

1/4 Plays

Toronto +1 (-108) 5u
LA Lakers +1.5 (-105) 6u

1/4 - 1-1 +.6u

YTD - 13-9 (59.1%) +11.2u

[OoDeBaby]

1/5 Plays

Cleveland -4 (-105) 7u
Dallas -6 (-105) 6u
Chicago -3 (-105) 3u
New Orleans -2 (-105) 5u
Memphis -13.5 (-108) 5u
Utah -2 (-105) 4u

Big card today. Still waiting for that big breakout day, feeling confident that this is it.

BOL to me and anyone who tails along for a game or two

[OoDeBaby]

Wow, I don't know how Cleveland blew that 1st half lead

[OoDeBaby]

1/5 Results

Cleveland -4 (-105) 7u
Dallas -6 (-105) 6u
Chicago -3 (-105) 3u
New Orleans -2 (-105) 5u
Memphis -13.5 (-108) 5u
Utah -2 (-105) 4u

Frustrating

1/5 3-3 -2.8u

YTD - 16-12 (57.1%) +8.4u

[OoDeBaby]

1/6 Plays

Phoenix -4 (-107) 3u

[OoDeBaby]

1/6 Results

Phoenix -4 (-107) 3u

1/6 - 1-0 +3u

YTD 17-12 (58.6%) 11.4u

[OoDeBaby]

1/7 Plays

Cleveland +6 (-102) 4u
Washington -15 (-103) 5u
Utah +10.5 (-108) 3u
Dallas -9 (-102) 3u
Denver -7.5 (-105) 4u

A little more conservative with the unit sizing for me today. Been getting burned a bit from the big unit plays here, but still confident about these picks. Lets Get It!

[OoDeBaby]

1/7 Results

Cleveland +6 (-102) 4u
Washington -15 (-103) 5u
Utah +10.5 (-108) 3u
Dallas -9 (-102) 3u
Denver -7.5 (-105) 4u

1/7 1-4 -13.49u

YTD - 18-16 (52.9%) -2.13u


​Ouch

[OoDeBaby]

1/8 Plays

Houston -11.5 (-105) 4u

[OoDeBaby]

1/8 Results

Houston -11.5 (-105) 4u

1/8 1-0 +4u

YTD - 19-16 (54.29%) +1.87u

[OoDeBaby]

1/9 Plays

Indiana -4 (-105) 3u
Brooklyn -10.5 (-105) 7u
Utah +11.5 (-108) 4u
New Orleans -1 (-105) 6u
Minnesota +8.5 (-104) 4u

Lets Get It!!

[OoDeBaby]

1/9 Results

Indiana -4 (-105) 3u Push

Brooklyn -10.5 (-105) 7u
Utah +11.5 (-108) 4u
New Orleans -1 (-105) 6u
Minnesota +8.5 (-104) 4u


1/9 2-2-1 -1.51u

YTD- 21-18-1 (53.85%) +.36u

[OoDeBaby]

1/10 Plays


Indiana -6 (-105) 9u
Toronto -11.5 (-105) 7u
Detroit -5 (-108) 4u
Chicago -7.5 (-102) 6u
Utah +11.5 (-105) 8u
Portland -13 (-105) 3u

Absolute humongous card for me today! Please let this be the day we finally break out big. LETS GOOO

[OoDeBaby]

1/10 Results

Indiana -6 (-105) 9u
Toronto -11.5 (-105) 7u
Detroit -5 (-108) 4u Push
Chicago -7.5 (-102) 6u
Utah +11.5 (-105) 8u
Portland -13 (-105) 3u

1/10 2-3-1 -8u

YTD 23-21-2 (52.27%) -7.64u

[OoDeBaby]

1/11 Plays

LA Clippers -10 (-105) 8u
Memphis -4.5 (-105) 5u

[OoDeBaby]

1/11 Results

LA Clippers -10 (-105) 8u
Memphis -4.5 (-105) 5u


1/11 1-1 -3.4u

YTD - 24-22-2 (52.17%) -11.04u

[OoDeBaby]

1/12 Plays

Houston -6.5 (-101) 6u
Toronto -6 (-102) 3u
Chicago -11 (-105) 3u

[OoDeBaby]

adding:

New Orleans -5 (-103) 3u

[OoDeBaby]

1/12 Results

Houston -6.5 (-101) 6u
Toronto -6 (-102) 3u
Chicago -11 (-105) 3u
New Orleans -5 (-103) 3u

1/12 1-3 -3.3u

YTD - 25-25-2 (50%) -14.34u

[OoDeBaby]

1/13 Plays

Atlanta -12.5 (-107) 10u
Washington -1 (-103) 5u
Utah +8 (-105) 5u
Dallas -5 (-105) 3u

[OoDeBaby]

1/13 Results

Atlanta -12.5 (-107) 10u
Washington -1 (-103) 5u
Utah +8 (-105) 5u
Dallas -5 (-105) 3u

1/13 2-2 +6.6u

YTD 27-27-2 (50%) -7.74u


Been in a bit of a slump here for a while now but I'll hopefully bounce out soon. I've played a lot of online poker in the past so I definitely know variance is real and obviously its a part of sports betting. I still have confidence in this model and will continue to post, hopefully that 50% rate starts to make a climb sooner than later.

[OoDeBaby]

1/14 Plays

Houston -8.5 (-108) 5u
Charlotte +4.5 (-105) 6u
Toronto -17 (-105) 9u
Memphis -6.5 (-105) 4u
Atlanta -7.5 (-102) 4u
Dallas +2.5 (-108) 3u
Golden State -14.5 (-105) 6u
LA Clippers +4 (-105) 3u

[hottips]

hottips likes these picks, BOL

[OoDeBaby]

1/14 Results

Houston -8.5 (-108) 5u
Charlotte +4.5 (-105) 6u
Toronto -17 (-105) 9u
Memphis -6.5 (-105) 4u
Atlanta -7.5 (-102) 4u
Dallas +2.5 (-108) 3u
Golden State -14.5 (-105) 6u
LA Clippers +4 (-105) 3u


1/14 4-4 -7.39

YTD 31-31-2 (50%) -15.13u

Will someone please tell WTF happened in Toronto. Philly fouls an than hits a meaningless 3? Honestly feels like the basketball gods are punishing me for some reason. These losses can't continue