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ATS - mostly dogs
Starting something new, posting here just for (sure) tracking purposes.
This one is based on Spread where mostly dogs being undervalued, well, according to the model.
Goal=+7% yield after at least 300 bets.
All odds should be EU 1.9, unless otherwise stated.
Dec 12, 2014
Por+3 / Chi
Orl+8.5 / Atl
Nyk+6.5 / Bos
Ind+9 / Tor
Cha+10 / Mem
Okc / Min+8.5
Det+9.5 / Phx
Lal+12.5 / Sas
Starting bankroll: 100 units, betting always one unit.
I will be following you and BOL!
Por+3 / Chi
Orl+8.5 / Atl
Nyk+6.5 / Bos
Ind+9 / Tor
Cha+10 / Mem
Okc / Min+8.5
Det+9.5 / Phx
Lal+12.5 / Sas
Dec 13, 2014
Bkn+3 / Cha
Mem / Phi+10 (I would bet here 10 units following my guts, however it is against the rules)
Det+6 / Sac
Bkn+3 / Cha
Mem / Phi+10
Det+6 / Sac
8-3-0
Dec 14, 2014:
GSW / NOP+6.5
CHI / MIA+4.5
PHX+6.5 / OKC
SAS / DEN+3.5
GSW / NOP+6.5
CHI / MIA+4.5
PHX+6.5 / OKC
SAS / DEN+3.5
9-6-0
Dec 15, 2014
LAL+5 / IND
ORL+8 / TOR
DET+12.5 / LAC
CHA+10 / CLE
Sunday ain't the best day to go against the favs.
But I like what you're doing here
Last edited by Khum; 12-15-14 at 05:38 AM.
That could be interesting. Do you have some links about that or does it come from your own research?Originally Posted by Khum
It's just logic: for Sunday they schedule matches in which mostly the big teams are involved. These games are broadcasted on national televisions. So these games are taken seriously by the big teams. If they are also in decent or good form, they usually win SU and mostly ATS too.
Last edited by Khum; 12-15-14 at 08:40 AM.
OK, thanks for the extra workIt's just logic: for Sunday they schedule matches in which mostly the big teams are involved. These games are broadcasted on national televisions. So these games are taken seriously by the big teams. If they are also in decent or good form, they usually win SU and mostly ATS too.
Column 9 is the ATS result. The names of the favorites are missing here, but it is not important for this purpose.
30 nov Minnesota Timberwolves -14 212 Won 107 93 Push Under 0 9 nov Philadelphia 76ers -13,5 205 Won 120 88 Win Over 1 14 dec Utah Jazz -11,5 193 Won 93 84 Loss Under -1 7 dec @ Detroit Pistons -10 194 Won 96 94 Loss Under -1 2 nov Sacramento Kings -9,5 205 Lost 92 98 Loss Under -1 30 nov @ Detroit Pistons -9 202 Won 104 93 Win Under 1 7 dec Milwaukee Bucks -9 210 Won 125 102 Win Over 1 30 nov Orlando Magic -9 204 Lost 90 93 Loss Under -1 9 nov Denver Nuggets -9 207 Won 116 100 Win Over 1 9 nov Orlando Magic -8,5 198 Won 104 96 Loss Over -1 16 nov @ Los Angeles Lakers -8 213 Won 136 115 Win Over 1 23 nov @ Oklahoma City Thunder -8 196 Won 91 86 Loss Under -1 9 nov Miami Heat -8 205 Lost 96 105 Loss Under -1 7 dec Miami Heat -8 192 Won 103 87 Win Under 1 14 dec Phoenix Suns -7,5 211 Won 112 88 Win Under 1 30 nov @ Boston Celtics -7,5 204 Won 111 89 Win Under 1 14 dec @ Miami Heat -7 194 Won 93 75 Win Under 1 30 nov @ Los Angeles Lakers -7 209 Lost 122 129 Loss Over -1 14 dec @ New Orleans Pelicans -6,5 205 Won 128 122 Loss Over -1 14 dec @ New York Knicks -6,5 200 Won 95 90 Loss Under -1 7 dec @ New York Knicks -6,5 195 Won 103 99 Loss Over -1 7 dec Denver Nuggets -6 211 Won 96 84 Win Under 1 16 nov @ Oklahoma City Thunder -5 192 Won 69 65 Loss Under -1 16 nov Milwaukee Bucks -5 189 Lost 84 91 Loss Under -1 14 dec @ Denver Nuggets -5 203 Won 99 91 Win Under 1 23 nov @ Boston Celtics -5 209 Won 94 88 Win Under 1 30 nov @ Sacramento Kings -4,5 193 Won 97 85 Win Under 1 14 dec @ Minnesota Timberwolves -4 212 Won 100 94 Win Under 1 9 nov Utah Jazz -3,5 192 Lost 96 97 Loss Over -1 2 nov Charlotte Hornets -3,5 185 Won 96 93 Loss Over -1 2 nov Golden State Warriors -3,5 209 Lost 90 95 Loss Under -1 7 dec @ Boston Celtics -3,5 204 Lost 93 101 Loss Under -1 30 nov @ New York Knicks -3 189 Won 86 79 Win Under 1 9 nov Golden State Warriors -3 209 Won 107 95 Win Under 1 30 nov @ Brooklyn Nets -2,5 193 Won 102 84 Win Under 1 9 nov @ Los Angeles Lakers -2,5 202 Lost 92 107 Loss Under -1 23 nov Los Angeles Clippers -2,5 198 Won 107 91 Win Push 1 7 dec @ Los Angeles Lakers -2,5 207 Won 104 87 Win Under 1 23 nov @ Los Angeles Lakers -2 221 Won 101 94 Win Under 1 2 nov Toronto Raptors -2 197 Won 107 102 Win Over 1 16 nov Denver Nuggets -2 203 Won 109 93 Win Under 1 9 nov @ Oklahoma City Thunder -2 190 Lost 93 101 Loss Over -1 23 nov Charlotte Hornets -1 185 Won 94 93 Push Over 0
Last edited by bihon; 12-15-14 at 11:45 AM.
For yesterday match between the Warriors and the Pelicans the line was -5.5 at the begining of the match ...
The line moved between -6.5 and -5.5 during the day. At the moment I posted it was -6.5.
http://www.donbest.com/nba/odds/spreads/20141214.html
I also got some worse lines than the closing ones and posted them here, but in the end it doesn't make the difference.
I didn't question it relatively to your bets but relatively to the statistics you take into consideration when we talk about Sundays
Oh, I see. I actually copied it from another side, so they also used -6,5 for that match.I didn't question it relatively to your bets but relatively to the statistics you take into consideration when we talk about Sundays
But the reasoning remains the same: In the long run it doesn't realy matter. For every point you earn, you loose one somewhere else.
And contrary to general opinion the bookies are not perfect when it comes to spread. It doesn't really comes so often that the line correct is up to the point.
LAL+5 / IND
ORL+8 / TOR
DET+12.5 / LAC
CHA+10 / CLE
10-9-0
Dec 16, 2014
MIN / WAS -12.5
MIA+7.5 / BRO
GSW+2.5 / MEM
UTA / NOP -9
DAL -6.5 / NYK
OKC / SAC+7
ML: (not part of the system, just side-tracking)
MIA@3.89 / BRO
DAL@1.38 / NYK
GSW@2.28 + OT@12.0 / MEM
MIN / WAS -12.5
MIA+7.5 / BRO
GSW+2.5 / MEM
UTA / NOP -9
DAL -6.5 / NYK
OKC / SAC+7
13-12-0
ML:
MIA@3.89 / BRO
DAL@1.38 / NYK
GSW@2.28 + OT@12.0 / MEM
Dec 17, 2014
ATL+5.5 / CLE
PHX-2 / CHA
ORL+3.5 / BOS + OT@12.0
UTA+3.5 / MIA + OT@12.0
DET / DAL-6.5
BRO+11.5 / TOR
MEM / SAS-3.5
MIL / POR-9.5
ML:
ORL@2.49
UTA@2.53
HOU@1.86
ATL+5.5 / CLE
PHX-2 / CHA
ORL+3.5 / BOS
UTA+3.5 / MIA
DET / DAL-6.5
BRO+11.5 / TOR
MEM / SAS-3.5
MIL / POR-9.5
17-16-0
ML:
ORL@2.49 + OT@12.0 (OT's not being tracked, put on the wrong place)
UTA@2.53 + OT@12.0
HOU@1.86
Dec 18, 2014
NYK+10 / CHI + O193.5
OKC / GSW-3 + U210.5
MIL+5.5 / SAC + U203
NOP+4.5 /HOU + U202
ML:
MIL@3.10
NOP/HOU OT@12.00
Thanks, nice sweep of course, but it is a long way to Emerald City.
NYK+10 / CHI + O193.5
OKC / GSW-3 + U210.5
MIL+5.5 / SAC + U203
NOP+4.5 /HOU + U202
ATS: 21-16-0
ML:
MIL@3.10
NOP/HOU OT@12.00
Dec 19, 2014
UTA+3 / ORL
MIN / BOS-6
BKN+12 / CLE
WAS-5 / MIA
CHI+5.5 / MEM
POR+5 / SAS
LAC-6 / DEN
OKC-6 / LAL
ML:
POR@2.86 / SAS
UTA@2.4 / ORL
CHI@3.00 / MEM
CHA@1.54 / PHI
OKC@1.4 / LAL
TOR@1.3 / DET
In any long way every step has it's value
Best of luck!
UTA+3 / ORL
MIN / BOS-6
BKN+12 / CLE
WAS-5 / MIA
CHI+5.5 / MEM
POR+5 / SAS
LAC-6 / DEN
OKC-6 / LAL
ATS: 26-19-0 +4.40
ML:
POR@2.86 / SAS
UTA@2.4 / ORL
CHI@3.00 / MEM
CHA@1.54 / PHI
OKC@1.4 / LAL
TOR@1.3 / DET
+6.5
ML:11-2-0 +12.26
OT:0-4
Dec 20, 2014
PHX-6.5 / NYK
POR+5 / NOP
ATL+5 / HOU
SAS+10.5 / DAL
IND+4 / DEN
MIL+10.5 / LAC
ML:
IND@2.58 /DEN +OT
ATL@2.9 / HOU
POR@2.70 / NOP +OT
PHX@1.35 / NYK
PHX-6.5 / NYK
POR+5 / NOP
ATL+5 / HOU
SAS+10.5 / DAL
IND+4 / DEN
MIL+10.5 / LAC
ATS:32-19-0 +9.80
ML:
IND@2.58 /DEN
ATL@2.9 / HOU
POR@2.70 / NOP
PHX@1.35 / NYK
ML: 14-3 +15.21
OT: 0-6
Dec 21, 2014
NYK+12 / TOR
MEM+3.5 / CLE
DET / BRO-4.5
BOS+1.5 / MIA
PHI / ORL-8.5
IND-2.5 / MIN
NOP+5 / OKC +OT@12.0
ML:
NYK@7.2 / TOR +OT@12.0
MEM@2.28 / CLE +OT@12.0
DET / BRO@1.55
BOS@2.1 / MIA
PHX / WAS@1.38
IND@1.7 / MIN
NYK+12 / TOR
MEM+3.5 / CLE
DET / BRO-4.5
BOS+1.5 / MIA
PHI / ORL-8.5
IND-2.5 / MIN
NOP+5 / OKC + OT
ATS: 36-22-0 +10.40
ML:
NYK@7.2 / TOR +OT
MEM@2.28 / CLE +OT
DET / BRO@1.55
BOS@2.1 / MIA
PHX / WAS@1.38
IND@1.7 / MIN
ML: 16-7 +12.46 OT:0-9
Dec 22, 2014
POR+3.5 / HOU
LAC / SAS+1.5
ML:
POR@2.50 / HOU
ATL / DAL@1.51
LAC / SAS@2.02
POR+3.5 / HOU
LAC / SAS+1.5
37-23-0 +10.30
ML:
POR@2.50 / HOU
ATL / DAL@1.51
LAC / SAS@2.02
17-9 +11.48
Dec 23, 2014
BOS+2 /ORL
CHI/ WAS-3
LAC+1.5 /ATL
PHI/ MIA-8
CHA+5.5 /MIL +OT
POR+5.5 /OKC
DAL+1.5 /PHX
GSW-10 /LAL
ML:
POR@3.1 /OKC
BOS@2.17 /ORL
LAC@2.05 /ATL
DAL@2.05 /PHX
CHI/ WAS@1.65
It looks like ESPN (my main free data source) screw something up with the average points data.
http://espn.go.com/nba/statistics/te...-game/split/34
They are using the total opponent points also in home/road tables:
E.g.:
TEAM OWN OPP
----------------------
Home:
Toronto 105.5 100.1 (should be: 105,5-95,3)
Road:
Toronto 112.0 100.1 (should be: 112-106,9)
Total:
Toronto 108.2 100.1
-----------------------
Home:
Dallas 112.3 103.2 (should be: 112,3-103,6)
Road:
Dallas 106.9 103.2 (should be: 106,9-102,8)
Total:
Dallas 109.6 103.2
-----------------------
Home:
Boston 105.2 104.3 (should be: 105,2-103,9)
Road:
Boston 101.6 104.3 (should be: 101,6-105)
Total:
Boston 103.7 104.3
-----------------------
etc...
I have contacted them and they escalated the issue.
BOS+2 /ORL
CHI/WAS-3
LAC+1.5 /ATL
PHI/ MIA-8
CHA+5.5 /MIL
POR+5.5 /OKC
DAL+1.5/PHX
GSW-10 /LAL
ATS TOT: 39-29-0 +6.10
ML:
POR@3.1 /OKC
BOS@2.17 /ORL
LAC@2.05 /ATL
DAL@2.05 /PHX
CHI/ WAS@1.65
ML TOT: 18-13 +9.58
Dec 25, 2014
OKC/ SAS-5.5
LAL/ CHI-10
GSW+2 /LAC
ML:
SAS@1.45
OKC/ SAS-5.5
LAL/ CHI-10
GSW+2 /LAC
ATS: +5.00
SAS@1.45
ML: +8.58
A bit strange situation here.
The system was optimized on ESPN data, which turned to be partially wrong. As soon I realised it, I started using NBA.com data for that part (opponent avg points h/a) and since then the results are very in red.
Of course I could continue using opponent totals for both home and away but I don't see any sense in it and I don't like following something I can't see the logic in.
I will simply continue following the system with the correct data for at least 300 picks as stated.
Dec 26, 2014
MIL/ ATL-8.5
IND-2.5 /DET
HOU+4 /MEM
SAS/ NOP+2.5
LAL/ DAL-10.5
MIN/ DEN-10.5
PHI/ POR-14
PHX-1.5 /SAC
ml:
IND@1.72 /DET
PHX@1.85 /SAC
CLE@1.5 /ORL
SAS/ NOP@2.25
MIL/ ATL-8.5
IND-2.5 /DET
HOU+4 /MEM
SAS/ NOP+2.5
LAL/ DAL-10.5
MIN/ DEN-10.5
PHI/ POR-14
PHX-1.5 /SAC
ats: +4.60
ml:
IND@1.72 /DET
PHX@1.85 /SAC
CLE@1.5 /ORL
SAS/ NOP@2.25
ml: +10.43
Dec 27, 2014
TOR+4.5 /LAC
BOS/ WAS-9.5
MEM-2.5 /MIA
IND+2.5 /BRK
NOP/ CHI-9.5
ATL /MIL+4.5
MIN /GSW-17
ml:
MEM@1.71 /MIA
NYK@2.82 /SAC
TOR+4.5 /LAC
BOS/ WAS-9.5
MEM-2.5 /MIA
IND+2.5 /BRK
NOP/ CHI-9.5
ATL /MIL+4.5
MIN /GSW-17
ATS: 48-38 +5.20
MEM@1.71 /MIA
NYK@2.82 /SAC
ml: 22-16 +10.14
Dec 28, 2014
DET/ CLE-9
TOR-2.5 /DEN
PHO-6.5 /LAL
ml:
TOR@1.72 /DEN
OKC/ DAL@1.53
DET/ CLE-9
TOR-2.5 /DEN
PHO-6.5 /LAL
ATS: 50-39 +6.00
TOR@1.72 /DEN
OKC/ DAL@1.53
ml: 24-16 +11.39
Dec 29, 2014
ATS:
MIL+3.5 /CHA
CHI-5.5 /IND
SAC+1.5 /BRK
ORL+4.5 /MIA
WAS+4 /HOU
ML:
SAC@2.00 /BRK
ORL@2.66 /MIA
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