[gaguilan10]

Thanks mate! Can't wait for your posts!

[sando]

Storm v Warriors
1.5* Warriors +4
0.5* Warriors 1-12 ($3.90 William Hill)

It's a big day today in Australia, Anzac Day, our most significant war memorial day, which is why we are playing sport on a Monday.

So there are 3 games of NRL & 1 game of AFL today...

AFL

Collingwood v Essendon
No play - too many variables in play, however lean Collingwood -24.5

NRL

Manly @ Newcastle
Was about to play Knights ATS but just received late mail that DCE is playing for the Knights today (for my American friends that's the equivalent of Westbrook or C. Paul being a late in) so no play now

-Knight have a perfect 12-0 home record as an underdog (since 2014)
-Knights are undefeated so far at home his year.
-With DCE out, the Knights actually have the superior halves with Hodkinson & Mullen
-Manly haven't played in the Hunter region in 4 years
-Knights have a long standing habit of lifting for big games (Anzac Day)

Roosters v Dragons
1.5* Roosters -2


Warriors @ Storm
-See pending plays above
You can now get +4.5 on the Warriors so am going to add another half a unit ATS for a total of 2x ATS & 0.5x on the 1-12


LEST WE FORGET...

[garygroundwork]

Hey Sando how do you think the final 8 will look in the NRL at the end of the minor round?

[sando]

Hey Sando how do you think the final 8 will look in the NRL at the end of the minor round?

1. Broncos
2. Cowboy's
3. Sharks
4. Eels* (pending disciplinary action)
5. Bulldogs
6. Panthers
7. Storm
8. Warriors
9. Raiders (will move into 8th if Eels get stripped of their points)

As far as winning the premiership, I would put it into this percentage pie

45% Cowboys
35% Broncos
15% Sharks
5% Eels

I just don't see how any team can beat the Cowboy's, when they have JT, Coote & Morgan all on the same team. It almost isn't fair...

Of course the season is only 1/4 of the way through, a lot can change, injuries, form, etc, etc

[garygroundwork]

1. Broncos
2. Cowboy's
3. Sharks
4. Eels* (pending disciplinary action)
5. Bulldogs
6. Panthers
7. Storm
8. Warriors
9. Raiders (will move into 8th if Eels get stripped of their points)

As far as winning the premiership, I would put it into this percentage pie

45% Cowboys
35% Broncos
15% Sharks
5% Eels

I just don't see how any team can beat the Cowboy's, when they have JT, Coote & Morgan all on the same team. It almost isn't fair...

Of course the season is only 1/4 of the way through, a lot can change, injuries, form, etc, etc

cheers mate, good response

[BigNik]

Roosters are a disgrace of a football team. And this is coming from a lifelong supporter

[garygroundwork]

Roosters are a disgrace of a football team. And this is coming from a lifelong supporter

They are on par with Fremantle

Both gone from minor premiers to absolute shit in the blink of an eye.

[BigNik]

Dragons getting gifted penalty after penalty not helping

[f1ori5]

Hey Sando any thoughts on the games in the NBA tonight?

[sando]

Hey Sando any thoughts on the games in the NBA tonight?

I've got nothing tonight mate, sorry. These teams are so evenly matched. I think people underestimating the C's. They've got a great "next man up" mentality. Bradley goes down, Smart steps up. Lean under in the Rap's v Pacers, but that's not rocket science when every game going under...

cheers mate, good response

Actually I would remove the Warriors from the 8 altogether. Not just because of how bad they were against the Storm, but the loss of Lolohea is as big as the loss of RTS. Raiders certainly have the list to play finals.

[f1ori5]

I already took the under at raptors and a small bet on celtics. they are a tough team to beat when they figure out their opponent. thanks for your input

[sando]

Great start to the w/e, but poor finish.
Regardless, still killed it in both sports!
5 weeks into the AFL season & yet to have a losing week!
Back in the black in my beloved NRL after a poor start to the season.


NRL 6-3 +5.15 units

AFL 6-4 +5.95 units

MMA - No plays on UFC 197

NRL 2016 28-27 +0.95 units

AFL 2016 22-15 +17.55 units

MMA 2016 8-3 +5.4 units

[f1ori5]

Nice. I am new as I told you and I hope you keep on the good streak. GL

[sando]

There are paid services for AFL & NRL that can't produce those sorts of results hahah....

[f1ori5]

I ll take your word for granted as I know very few on these leagues)

[sando]

Playing Atlanta -2.5 1st Q for 1.5x (home team has covered every 1st Q line in this series)

[f1ori5]

let's hope they start strong

[sando]

Best betting day of the playoffs for sure. Love today's games! Going huge today...

Playing...

3* Portland -2.5
1* Clippers team total under 96.5

3* Heat -5.5

Strong lean towards any type of D-Wade over props. I believe Wade & to a lesser extent Deng both have big games today. Unlike Lebron, Wade does have a touch of the killer (must win game) mentality. The fickle Miami crowd certainly are great front runners. Listen to them roar when the Heat hit the front. No worried with Batum's return, it may be rushed & therefor he may not be particularly helpful today, besides Miami is 2-0 against Batum & 0-2 without him.

1.5* Warriors -3 1st Q
1.5* Warriors -9
Curry or not, this team is stacked with talent & full of confidence, whereas the Rockets are a shambles. D12 is halfway to the Nets already?? Regardless, in a classic close out scenario, I can see the Warriors just crushing Houston late in the 4th - say the Warriors are up 6 heading into the 4th, Klay hits a 3 to make in 9, Rockets throw in the towel mentally and the Warriors run away with it & win by 18-20
Also lean towards Warriors team total Over 111

10 units is a significant amount of $$ for me to have spread across only 3 games. Glory or bust I guess...

Disclaimer - I haven't had the greatest NBA season this year, nor am I tracking my plays in this sport

[sando]

Mistake - Only playing 1x on Warriors 1st Q -3 (not 1.5X)

[therealdealau]

Nice hit on the Warriors and Portland spread, extremely unlucky on the Clippers total. Round 2 of the playoffs in the West suddenly got a lot worse. Miami absolutely shat the bed, disappointed in them. Can Portland worry the Warriors at all? They have an athletic, long team full of confidence. No Curry. Is this a prayer?

[hjrozay]

Good to see this thread poppin still.

Do you have a small lean for the NRL - South Sydney vs West Tigers. Hard game to read?

Two teams struggling for form at the moment.

[sando]

Good to see this thread poppin still.

Do you have a small lean for the NRL - South Sydney vs West Tigers. Hard game to read?

Two teams struggling for form at the moment.

Good to see you in here mate. Fairly confident Souths win, however the ML is no good for us & the line seems a tad too heavy, although I'm certainly not game to take the Tigers with the +10 after last week's 60-6 debacle. Teams usually bounce back (at least to some extent) after copping a hiding the week before.

Also lean over 43.5, was close to playing it for a unit. Souths over 25.5 (Sportsbet) is also tempting...



Will have my first bunch of plays for this w/e posted in approx 2-3 hours. Got some big plays lined up again this w/e!!

[garygroundwork]

Can we stick a fork in Souths for 2016 Sando?

[sando]

Can we stick a fork in Souths for 2016 Sando?

Mate something's not right with this club, and I can't quite figure out what it is?? I have a bit of an emotional connection as I am a Souths junior myself, and when we were kids we used to just climb right over the wall into Redfern stadium and watch Souths play for free. Anyway I wonder if there is a division amongst the have's & the have not's, because The Burg-eye brothers are so tight with Russel Crowe and they are getting a good chunk of the available $$, so perhaps there is some division amongst the playing group. I mean the Tigers with all their known problems seemed more cohesive last night. Also a good chunk of injuries certainly doesn't help, and nor does losing Luke out of dummy half, they miss him so so much.

[sando]

NBA

Good day yesterday buy could have been great if not for Miami stinking it up (Charlotte was pretty impressive as well)

1* Celtic's 1st Q ML ($2.07 +107 Pinnacle)
Celtics must have a fast start if they are to win this game. Hawks have dominated the 2nd half the last 3 games in this series. C's have been a great 1st Q team all year (Ranked 6th regular season - avg 1st Q margin).

1* Celtics ML ($2.22 +122 Pinnacle) Hawks haven't won a playoff game in Boston since Larry Bird was in his prime...

[sando]

It's all about NRL this round, AFL takes a back seat as I am focused on my biggest NRL round of the season (betting wise).

If you are tailing me, you better have some brass cojones because it's all about the 'dogs this w/e...

NRL

Eels v Bulldogs
1* Under 36.5
1* Eels ML ($2.50 Pinnacle)
2* Eels +4

Eels are simply a better team across the park, even without Foran, as Norman has been killing it & does most of the kicking anyway. Eels are one of probably only 2 or 3 teams that can match the Bulldogs in the forwards (which is by far the 'dogs biggest strength), and when the Bulldogs lose their usually significant advantage in the forwards they lose (see last match against Eels & also Canberra match - the 'dogs 2 biggest losses this season).

This isn't an official play, but I quite like a 1st scoring play - Bulldogs penalty goal ($8.00 - W. Hill) as well. Many teams starting to follow the Wayne Bennet model of "take any points when available" this season.

Panthers v Raiders
1.5* Raiders +4.5
1* Raiders ML ($2.52 Pinnacle)
1* Over 42 (My favourite over of the round. Would have hammered it if not for the predicted rain - 67% precipitation at kickoff)

Roosters v Knights
2* Roosters -14.5 (Ladbrokes - up to -16 is ok)
Massacre - Roosters by 20+

Sea eagles v Cowboys
Leaning towards Cow's ATS - undecided...

Warriors v Dragons
2* Dragons ML ($1.91)
Dragons have won 11 in a row against the Warriors - the longest active streak of any club. Warriors are a joke!! and to make matters worse, they have lost Lolohea & Mannering to injury & 6 players to disciplinary reasons, including Matulino, the beast & Hurrell. Warriors will be fielding a NSW cup strength side. If they Dragons were actually capable of scoring points they would win by 20...

Titans v Storm
1.5* Titans +4 (Crown Bet - also +4.5 at Ladbrokes/Bookmakers but they have taken the market down? - +2.5 is ok for 1x)
1* Titans 1-12 ($3.85 William Hill)
Storm being favourites are a joke. They can't even field a 1st grade backline. Everyone dazzled by their display against the Warriors last week, but what about the 4 weeks of horrible displays leading up to that demolition job. Titans are a special here, they are more than capable, especially at home!
Power Stat- the Storm have failed to cover ATS their last 6 road games

Sharks v Broncos
1* Sharks 1-12 ($3.50 William Hill)
1* Under 36.5 (Ladbrokes)

[Shazzadude]

Looking forward to your footy plays this weekend

[BigNik]

Been looking into this Bulldogs game for the last 2 hours and it is doing my head in. Originally leaned Eels and then changed to dogs and now back to Eels. Thinking of teasing them in a multi to +10.5.

[sando]

AFL

1* Kangaroos 1-39 ($2.50 William Hill)

I love the Bulldogs, we have already cashed 2 large plays on them this season, however with their defence stocks running low can see them seriously struggling with the Roos 3 genuine talls, but they are the best defensive team in the comp so unlikely they will get blown out.

More plays to follow...

[sando]

AFL

1* Kangaroos 1-39 ($2.50 William Hill)

I love the Bulldogs, we have already cashed 2 large plays on them this season, however with their defence stocks running low can see them seriously struggling with the Roos 3 genuine talls, but they are the best defensive team in the comp so unlikely they will get blown out.

More plays to follow...

1* Kangaroos v Western Bulldogs Over 190.5


Adelaide v Fremantle
2* Adelaide -45.5
1* Adelaide team total Over 116.5

Melbourne v St Kilda
3* Melbourne -2.5
Was close to splitting my plays up into Melbourne -2.5 for 2x & Melbourne team total over 94.5 for 1x (Melbourne are a strong offensive team & the Saints are weak defensively), however I like the line too much as this game is certainly not a pick 'em as the line suggests.

GWS v Hawthorn
1.5* GWA 1-39 ($2.60 Everywhere)

Brisbane v Sydney
1* Brisbane team total under 77.5 (William Hill)
Strong lean Sydney ATS, probably add later for another unit.

[binomial]

betting the netball at all sando?

[sando]

betting the netball at all sando?

Nah not this year mate, I have (temporarily) given up netball, super rugby & rugby 7's to focus solely on NRL, AFL, NBA & MMA. So far the results have been great in AFL, MMA & NRL (not so much NBA).

Follow my boy Rabbit (@thegoalshooter) on T*****r, his netball plays have always been better than mine anyway...

[hedgejob]

Dees not to be trusted as favorites

[sando]

Adding...

GWS v Hawthorn
1* GWS 1st Half ML ($2.10 Luxbet)

[sando]

Adding...

Richmond v Port Adelaide
1* Richmond 1-39 ($2.15 Sportsbet, W. Hill)