[BigNik]

Anything in the ufc today Sando. Do you like cowboy cerrone

[ExodusNZ]

Different defensive team from the Rooster compared to last week!

[ronpaul2o12]

Liam Missing?

[sando]

NRL

Penrith v Souths
2.5* Penrith -9.5

Panthers should put 30 on them at home, however their goal line defence has been poor lately as well. Regardless the Rabbits are horrible, no longer overrated but still a horrible team in attack & defence. Even Sammy B & Inglis are playing badly. Panthers team total over 25.5 looks go and so does the 13+

AFL

Collingwood v Freo
1* Collingwood 1st Quarter -0.5 (Sportsbet)

[therealdealau]

Damn freo were poor in that game good call

[sando]

Using the AFL leader predictor, I have gone through the whole season. Can't upload the damn screenshot.

Spent a lot of time on this, went over it 3 times. I picked the margins as well as the result.

The potential margin between Geelong and GWS is tiny for the top spot, and makes GWS at $4.50 a fantastic value bet for the minor premiership. I'm putting 2 units on them today. The crucial match for me is Swans @ Geelong in a couple of weeks, which I've marked down as a Geelong win, however if the Swans are able to get over the top of the cats then unlikely anybody will stop them from claiming the minor premiership. I already have a pre season future bet on the Swans to make the top 4 which the clowns at William Hill offered at $3.50! Pre-season, so personally am just backing GWS for the minor premiership, however you can also get good odds on the Swans.

1. Geelong.........17 5 137.3%
2. GWS..............17 5 137%
3. Sydney..........17 5 129.6%
4. Adelaide........17 5 126.9%
5. Hawthorn......17 5 118.7%
6. Bulldogs........16 6 119.1%
7. West Coast....15 7 125.6%
8. Kangaroos.....14 8 112%
9. St Kilda..........11 11
10. Port.............10 12
11. Melbourne...10 12
12. Richmond.....8 14
13. Carlton.........8 14
14. Collingwood.7 15
15. Gold Coast...6 16
16. Freo.............5 17
17. Essendon.....2 20
18. Brisbane......1 21

[sando]

Also really like Brisbane to win the wooden spoon at around $3.00, as it all comes down to the crucial round 18 match between Brisbane and Essendon at Etihad and I like Essendon to win this game. Brisbane's only other probable chance for a win is against the Suns at Metricon, and the Suns are starting to get key players back and Ablett returning to peak form and have simply looked a lot better than the Lions lately...

[sando]

Also putting a 4 unit future on the Brisbane Broncos to make top 4 in the NRL ($1.70 Sportsbet). After much analysis, I have them beating the Bulldogs & Raiders by a comfortable 1-2 games for the crucial 4th spot.

[therealdealau]

Great analysis and heads up research that you shared mate. I have Geelong losing that game to the Swans, I find Geelong incredibly average and although they play down to their competition if they are vsing a bottom 8 side and play like a premiership team when they play good opponents I think they'll get squashed by the Swans. When is Tippett due back?

[therealdealau]

Also the Crows @ $1.70 for the top4 is that worth a shout?

[sando]

NRL

Warriors v Titans
3* Warriors -10 (William Hill)
Note - If can't get the -10, would recommend 1-2 units on the 13+ at about $2.20

Penrith v Wests Tigers
1.5* Over 44.5
2 potent attacks & poor goal line defences. 2 teams that drift in and out of games. Perfect Storm. Wanted 44 or less and would have played that number for 3 units.

AFL

Sydney v Western Bulldogs
2.5* Under 170.5 (Sportsbet)
1* Sydney 1-39 ($2.15 Ladbrokes)

Two best defences in the league (by far). Two dominant contested ball monsters. Hard, tough footy is the result. Total should be closer to 160...

More to follow...

[sando]

AFL

St Kilda @ Gold Coast
1* Saints 1-39 ($2.60 Sportsbet)
1* Saints ML ($2.02 Pinnacle) - this play is to protect against another Gold Coast flogging (unlikely but possible)

Saints are bad away. Gold Coast are bad at home. Stalemate. However Saints are a dog for the 3rd game in a row, and their form either side of the bye has been fantastic as they have knocked over Cats & the Blue baggers. Saints should be small favourites here.

[sando]

NRL

Warriors v Titans
1* Warriors 1st Half -5.5

Cronulla v Parramatta
1* Cronulla 1-12 ($3.00 Sportsbet/W. Hill)
1* Under 38.5

[BigNik]

How the hell did the swans leave a dogs player so open forty metres out right in front of goal with 30 seconds left. Incredible

[tradeout]

Penrith v Wests Tigers
1.5* Over 44.5
2 potent attacks & poor goal line defences. 2 teams that drift in and out of games. Perfect Storm. Wanted 44 or less and would have played that number for 3 units.

good read on the over

[sando]

NRL

Raiders v Knights

2* Raiders 1st Half -11.5 (William Hill)
2.5* Raiders -24.5

It's the biggest line of the season for a very good reason. Elite attacking team who are at their best in home day games vs. the worst defensive team in a very long time = massacre. Raiders almost always start fast so the 1st half -11.5 looks great value. Biggest team total I have ever seen (39.5) and I would still play the over. Expect Raiders to put on at least 8 try's + approx 6 conversions is 44 points...

[garygroundwork]

Also the Crows @ $1.70 for the top4 is that worth a shout?

They win today hard to see them missing the 4

[garygroundwork]

How the hell did the swans leave a dogs player so open forty metres out right in front of goal with 30 seconds left. Incredible

Exactly...what a penetrate up. not to mention the amount of goals they missed.

Major screw up like the richmond game...ironically Parker had the chance to seal both and hit the post in both games.

[garygroundwork]

Using the AFL leader predictor, I have gone through the whole season. Can't upload the damn screenshot.

Spent a lot of time on this, went over it 3 times. I picked the margins as well as the result.

The potential margin between Geelong and GWS is tiny for the top spot, and makes GWS at $4.50 a fantastic value bet for the minor premiership. I'm putting 2 units on them today. The crucial match for me is Swans @ Geelong in a couple of weeks, which I've marked down as a Geelong win, however if the Swans are able to get over the top of the cats then unlikely anybody will stop them from claiming the minor premiership. I already have a pre season future bet on the Swans to make the top 4 which the clowns at William Hill offered at $3.50! Pre-season, so personally am just backing GWS for the minor premiership, however you can also get good odds on the Swans.

1. Geelong.........17 5 137.3%
2. GWS..............17 5 137%
3. Sydney..........17 5 129.6%
4. Adelaide........17 5 126.9%
5. Hawthorn......17 5 118.7%
6. Bulldogs........16 6 119.1%
7. West Coast....15 7 125.6%
8. Kangaroos.....14 8 112%
9. St Kilda..........11 11
10. Port.............10 12
11. Melbourne...10 12
12. Richmond.....8 14
13. Carlton.........8 14
14. Collingwood.7 15
15. Gold Coast...6 16
16. Freo.............5 17
17. Essendon.....2 20
18. Brisbane......1 21

Awesome analysis, love your work Sando.

[garygroundwork]

The race for the 4 is wide open now

[sando]

Sorry about the erratic posting boys, have been real busy with work, also been in Sydney for awhile (watched Origin III & Swans v Hawks @ SCG). Anyway gonna post some plays this w/e, had a good week last week & also a nice start to this w/e with the under on the Dragons v Bulldogs last night.

Keen on all 3 NRL games today.

NRL

Warriors v Panthers
1* Warriors 1-12 ($3.25 Will Hill)
Over was looking solid until it started raining...

Parramatta v Wests Tigers
2* Wests Tigers 1st H -3.5 ($1.80 Luxbet)
2* Wests Tigers -8

Cowboys v Storm
1* Under 36 (Will Hill only, everywhere else 35.5)
1* Cowboys 1-12 ($3.75 Will Hill - great odds)

AFL

GWS v Richmond
1* GWS -50.5
All signs point towards a belting today, but the line has blown out too far from the 40.5 it opened at to hammer it.

Hawthorn v Carlton
1.5* Under 170.5 (Ladbrokes)

Collingwood v West Coast
1* Collingwood ML ($2.25)
1* Collingwood 1st Q ML ($2.05 Luxbet)

Kangaroos v St Kilda
1* Kangaroos 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)

[sando]

Kangaroos v St Kilda
1.5* Kangaroos 1-39 ($2.25 Sportsbet)

Correction - Roos are 1.5 unit play.

[therealdealau]

Looks good sando

[aussieH]

Doing well in afl

[sando]

UFC 201

2* Matt Brown via KO ($2.00 Will Hill)

More to follow...

[sando]

UFC 201

0.5* Wilson Reis via submission ($3.00 Sportsbet)

[sando]

UFC 201

1* Masvidal via decision ($2.10 W.H & Sportsbet)

[sando]

UFC 201

0.5* Wilson Reis via submission ($3.00 Sportsbet)

Wow, so easy. Should have gone larger!

[sando]

UFC 201

1* Ryan Benoit ($2.00 Pinnacle)

0.5 Kowalkiewicz ($2.59 Pinnacle)

No I have no idea what will happen in the main event, but like most would like to see Robbie win so that he can fight wonderboy!

[sando]

AFL

Melbourne v Gold Coast

2.5* Melbourne -37.5 (Luxbet)

[sando]

NRL

Raiders v Rabbitohs

1.5* Raiders -4 (Will Hill)

[sando]

NRL

Raiders v Rabbitohs

1.5* Raiders -4 (Will Hill)

Sorry that's supposed to be Raiders -4 1st Half

[sando]

Man what a shame, 4-1 today in UFC with every play being a dog ($2.00 or higher). If it wasn't for Matt Brown's piss poor effort then would have killed this card...

[burkestar]

St kiLda nd collngwoOD lOok a gOod ShOUT ThoS Week, whAT you reckon sanDman

[sando]

RIO 2016

After spending so many hours crunching numbers that I have lost count, I have formulated a basic model for predicting individual country's success in the Rio games. My model uses base data from the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, Wall St journal, Goldman Sachs, BBC, GraceNote & a couple of other sites.

I have focused on two category's. Gold medals won & total medals won. I have only focused on the top 50-60% of the worlds nations (sporting wise) as I simply don't have the time or desire to analyse every nation.

Odds are in decimal format ($1.90 = -110)

Wagers are to win not risk (for example a 1 unit play at $1.50/-200 means risking 2 units to win 1)

Gold Medals won

1* NZ Over 7.5 Golds ($1.87 Sportsbet)
1.5* Australia Over 13.5 Golds ($1.75 Will Hill)
2* USA Over 41.5 Golds ($1.80 Luxbet)
1* Japan Over 11.5 Golds ($1.88 Crownbet)
4* Italy Under 7.5 Golds ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* South Korea Under 10.5 Golds ($1.84 Pinnacle)
2.5* Brazil Under 8.5 Golds ($1.88 Crownbet)
1* Canada Under 5.5 Golds ($1.40 Pinnacle)
1* Canada Under 4.5 Golds ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Bulgaria Under 0.5 Golds ($2.25 Sportsbet)



Total medals won

5* Romania Over 0.5 total medals ($1.72 Sportsbet)
2* Japan Over 33.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Netherlands Over 22.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
1* Germany Over 47.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)
1* NZ Over 20.5 total medals ($1.72 Ladbrokes)
1* France Under 42.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Canada Under 18.5 total medals ($1.83 Sportsbet)
1* Brazil Under 25.5 total medals ($1.83 Ladbrokes)


Extras

1* Great Britain - Most Golds without USA & China ($1.90 Sportsbet)
2* Australia 11-15 Golds ($2.20 Sportsbet)
1* Australia 16-20 Golds ($4.00 Sportsbet)