[garygroundwork]

Man was going to play the over 42 in Warriors v Panthers, then the total moved to 42.5 so I left it. 32 minutes in and 32 points on the board. Sigh...

spuing...not to mention Penrith were paying 2.40 a few weeks ago

[BigNik]

What the hell is going on with Brisbane!!!!

[garygroundwork]

What the hell is going on with Brisbane!!!!

they are done..put a fork in them and Gold Coast

[Ballzack]

Hey sando anything on for tonight? Tits + 5.5?

[italianbandit]

I have this eerie contrarian (at least on SBR) feeling that Golden state wins big tonight. I understand how so many people see value in OKC due to both team's current form but I'll be looking for a good live position backing GS.

[sando]

NRL

St George v Souths
1.5* Under 36.5

[sando]

AFL

Hawthorn v Sydney
1* Sydney 1-39 ($2.70 Sportsbet)
If it wasn't for the Roughead cancer scenario and the Hawks possibly being emotionally fired up then I would have had 2 units on Sydney, but still think they are the better team (on available players & form), despite last week's horrible performance against Richmond.



NRL

Cowboys v Broncos
1.5* Cowboys -2
1* Cowboys 1-12 ($3.10 Luxbet)

Cow's are the slightly better team IMO. Broncos haven't been great away from home & the Cow's are nearly unbeatable in Townsville. Odds are great because of the Cow's poor performance last week against the Storm.



Some huge plays this weekend. Will post all tomorrow morning.

[sando]

NRL

Cronulla V Manly
2* Cronulla -10
1* Cronulla team total over 24.5

Warriors v Raiders
1* Raiders ML ($2.10 Ladbrokes)
1* Raiders 1-12 ($3.70 William Hill)
*Would have absolutely unloaded on the over if not for the 100% precipitation & thunderstorms hitting the Taranaki region today.

Parramatta v Melbourne
2* Under 37.5

Bulldogs v Roosters
1* Roosters 1-12 ($3.95 William Hill)

Panthers v Titans
I have spent so much time on this game, and yet I can't quite get my betting strategy right. The line seems to large, especially as the Titans are the best ATS team and also good interstate, however I don't like the restriction of Panthers 1-12 either. The Panthers I feel have finally started to show just how good they potentially are after last weeks effort where they finally put a team away properly. I am 98% convinced the Panthers win this game, they are the far superior team on paper (talent wise) but also in real life, it's just that the Titans are a tough gritty team who have been overachieving, whereas the Panthers have been seriously underachieving this season, but i feel strongly that is about to change...

1* 1st Scoring play Penrith try ($2.50 William Hill)
2* Penrith 1st half -5.5 (William Hill)

[sando]

AFL

Loving the favorites this week...

Geelong v Collingwood
1* Geelong 40+ ($2.05 Ladbrokes)

Gold Coast v Adelaide
1* Adelaide team total over 130.5 (William Hill)
1* Adelaide -55.5

Port v West Coast
2* West Coast -10.5 (William Hill)
The Eagles have been getting hammered for not being able to win away from home (flat track bullies), however they have played the 3 best teams in the comp (Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn). Today they get a chance to make a statement against Port.

GWS v Western Bulldogs
3* GWS -16.5 (Luxbet)

North Melbourne v Carlton
1.5* Under 184.5

Melbourne v Brisbane
2* Melbourne -37.5
Pretty keen on Melbourne team total over 118.5 as well

[garygroundwork]

AFL

Loving the favorites this week...

Geelong v Collingwood
1* Geelong 40+ ($2.05 Ladbrokes)

Gold Coast v Adelaide
1* Adelaide team total over 130.5 (William Hill)
1* Adelaide -55.5

Port v West Coast
2* West Coast -10.5 (William Hill)
The Eagles have been getting hammered for not being able to win away from home (flat track bullies), however they have played the 3 best teams in the comp (Geelong, Sydney, Hawthorn). Today they get a chance to make a statement against Port.

GWS v Western Bulldogs
3* GWS -16.5 (Luxbet)

North Melbourne v Carlton
1.5* Under 184.5

Melbourne v Brisbane
2* Melbourne -37.5
Pretty keen on Melbourne team total over 118.5 as well

like all that... sydney, cows, adelaide all hit. Good stuff.

Wtf happened to Geelong today, they were flat. Sando do u give Collingwood are chance of finishing in the 8? they seem to have found their mojo.

[sando]

like all that... sydney, cows, adelaide all hit. Good stuff.

Wtf happened to Geelong today, they were flat. Sando do u give Collingwood are chance of finishing in the 8? they seem to have found their mojo.

Mate my original play was Collingwood 1st Q +8.5, but the longer I spent on the game, the more I talked myself out of it. In hindsight Geelong 40+ was a terrible play. Pies had their strongest team of the year today and it really showed. Can't believe how quickly that big gangly yank has picked up the game! Also they just seem to always play well against the Cats, talk about a bogey team. I remember a couple of years ago when the Cats were flying and then the Pies belted them by 90 at the 'G. Anyway the reason i don't think the Pies can make the 8, is the same reason I don't think Melbourne can make the 8, because who is coming out of the 8 to make room for them??? The only real candidates are Adelaide and West Coast, and it's really hard to imagine either of those teams not making the 8, I mean the Eagles were many pundits flag favourites at the start of the season, and the Crows horrible draw gets easier as the season progresses. I know this because I really like the Dee's but haven't been able to find a way to get them into the 8 this season (let alone the Pies).

[aussieH]

Liking the Titans tomorrow


tempted to unload on tigers Fremantle under 150. Very wet duting the day but at game time looks like it has stopped

[garygroundwork]

Mate my original play was Collingwood 1st Q +8.5, but the longer I spent on the game, the more I talked myself out of it. In hindsight Geelong 40+ was a terrible play. Pies had their strongest team of the year today and it really showed. Can't believe how quickly that big gangly yank has picked up the game! Also they just seem to always play well against the Cats, talk about a bogey team. I remember a couple of years ago when the Cats were flying and then the Pies belted them by 90 at the 'G. Anyway the reason i don't think the Pies can make the 8, is the same reason I don't think Melbourne can make the 8, because who is coming out of the 8 to make room for them??? The only real candidates are Adelaide and West Coast, and it's really hard to imagine either of those teams not making the 8, I mean the Eagles were many pundits flag favourites at the start of the season, and the Crows horrible draw gets easier as the season progresses. I know this because I really like the Dee's but haven't been able to find a way to get them into the 8 this season (let alone the Pies).

yeah I tend to agree.

[sando]

Liking the Titans tomorrow


tempted to unload on tigers Fremantle under 150. Very wet duting the day but at game time looks like it has stopped

Good to hear from you mate, long time no talk. Personally I really rate the Panthers. They have such an amazing collection of young talent & once they finally get it right, watch out everyone. Anyway I tried and tried to play Panthers ATS tomorrow, however line is just too big & Titans are an excellent interstate team. I do think the Panthers will start well though (hence my plays)

[sando]

Can't believe West Coast didn't cover. They were killing Port until Jonas' dog act on Eagles best midfielder (Gaff)

[sando]

NBA

4* Cav's -5

Hammering Cav's tomorrow! 4 units is a huge play for me. I see very few scenarios where Raptors can keep this under a 10 point loss. Still no JV certainly doesn't help either...

[garygroundwork]

Can't believe West Coast didn't cover. They were killing Port until Jonas' dog act on Eagles best midfielder (Gaff)

he will get 5 to 8 weeks for that elbow to the head.

I reakon the final 8 in the AFL might be just about set...not the order but teams.

[kingsr]

Hey Guys, any thoughts on the State Of origin this year?

[gopolks]

Sando who wins this week, Warriors or the Bye?

Just a sad sad warrior supporter.

Too early I know, but an upset against the Bronocs in two weeks time?

[Igor_1965]

turrible

[sando]

turrible

yebat' ty der'mo ne pizda ni odnogo rossiyanina zdes' to, chto vasha problema ?

Sando who wins this week, Warriors or the Bye?

Just a sad sad warrior supporter.

Too early I know, but an upset against the Bronocs in two weeks time?

Watching Luke do that Haka to the Taranaki locals after getting pumped by the Raiders was one of the most intense/emotionally charged things I have seen in football. Where was that passion when they were playing the Raiders. The Kiwi national team ALWAYS plays with passion. What the fuk is going on at the Warriors??????? I just don't understand. It must be McFaddin! Hurrel gone. Vatuvei on his way out. Place is falling apart...

Hey Guys, any thoughts on the State Of origin this year?

Mate I will post plays and my thoughts - probably Mon or Tues next week. Under looks good (as always)...

[16johnnymac]

Any play on castlesford rugby line is +3 1/2 thank u

[sando]

Any play on castlesford rugby line is +3 1/2 thank u

Sorry mate, that's English super league (rugby league). My specialty is Australian rugby league - the NRL, which is the world's premier rugby league competition.

[16johnnymac]

Ok thought I would ask cheers

[sando]

Early play

NRL

A Friday night special...

Brisbane v Wests Tigers
3* Broncos 13+ ($2.00 Sportsbet & W. Hill)

Broncos have lost 5 stars to Origin, but no matter, the team is loaded with depth and class and a good old fashioned beat down is on the cards. Tigers defence is horrible and the Broncos are deadly at home. Team is so stacked for depth that their replacement fullback (Kahu) is the current Kiwi international fullback. Broncos by 18+

[sando]

More analysis...

Brisbane's home games this season

Round 2 - Win by 15 (Warriors)
Round 4 - Win by 1 (Cowboys - who are the current champs)
Round 6 - Win by 26 (Dragons)
Round 7 - Win by 53 (Knights)
Round 8 - Win by 22 (Rabbitohs)

Wests Tigers are 1-3 on the road with an average losing margin of 22.7 (although that is inflated because of the 54 point belting the Raiders gave them). Their win was played at their home ground anyway, but they were listed as the away team.

[sando]

AFL

Sydney v North Melbourne
1.5* Sydney/Sydney (HT/FT) ($1.76 Sportsbet - playing to win 1.5 units)

Swans are an excellent 1st half team (1st H percentage of 161.6% this season) and I expect them to win as well but don't quite want to take on the 20 point line, so the HT/FT double provides a better value than hitting up the ML at $1.50 ish

NRL

Dragons v Cowboys
1.5* Under 37.5 (Ladbrokes - 36.5 is ok)

Raiders v Bulldogs
1.5* Raiders -4
1* Over 43.5
Day game + Raiders home game + nice weather = Over every time...
(-4 was supposed to be a larger play but missed the more attractive line of -3.5)

[sando]

Raptors ML tomorrow morning. $3.30/+230 is outstanding value for a team that has been SO good at home this post season. Will probably play 2x ATS and 1x ML

[sando]

I'm feeling generous tonight so I'll share one more play.

Tennis - French Open

Kyrgios ML -133/$1.75 (Luxbet)

Kyrgios is a piece of shit of a human being and a terrible representative of Australia on the international stage, HOWEVER he is a future #1 (potentially) and has the talent to beat anybody (even djoker). Easily the best young tennis player on tour with the biggest ceiling. great season so far in general and also on dirt, should beat gas-head comfortably. 4 sets max. I'm playing ML to win 2x

[sando]

Kyrgios flogged in straight sets and my Friday special Bronocs were horrible. Running bad at the moment. Sorry boys. I'll turn it around...

[garygroundwork]

Kyrgios flogged in straight sets and my Friday special Bronocs were horrible. Running bad at the moment. Sorry boys. I'll turn it around...

Broncos should of flogged Tigers... They didn't seem to give a shit until the last 10 minutes... and what the penetrate were they thinking of that last play. Blair just had to pass to Hunt and kick a penalty goal. what a penetrate up.

[sando]

AFL

St Kilda v Freo
1.5* St Kilda 1-39 ($2.20 William Hill)

Melbourne v Port Adelaide
1.5* Melbourne 1-39 ($2.75 Sportsbet & W. Hill)

Dreamtime at the 'G (Essendon v Richmond)
1* 1st Q Under 40.5
1* Essendon +16.5 1st H

Adelaide v GWS
1.5* Over 96.5 1st H
1* GWS ML ($1.92 Ladbrokes)

[sando]

Will probably have a couple of plays for UFC fight night 88.
Also will update my record in all sports after this w/e.

[BigNik]

How the hell does st kilda lead 25 nil after ten minutes find themselves down by 12. Wtf happened

[BigNik]

Looks like saints coach said the right things at three qtr time