[sando]

NRL

The whole point of the big under play on the AUS v NZ test match was because of the terrible weather. Weather so bad that the under would have easily hit. Weather so bad they postponed the match to a lovely Sunday afternoon and the under nearly hit anyway.

Rep Round

2-3 (-1.36 units)

Season

15-14 (+0.68 units)


AFL

Very poor start to the season, however my proven long term success in this sport has me confident of comfortably finishing the season in the black.

Round 5

2-6 (-2.85 units)

Season

5-13 (-8.85 units)

Round 7

Essendon v North Melbourne

2.5* Essendon 1st Half +7.5
The Dons have been a strong 1st Half team this season, winning 3 of 6 halves, and were even at HT with the Saints & Pies (1 point down) & the only smashing coming last week against a rampaging purple haze. They have won 7 of 12 1st & 2nd quarters, operating at a 1st Half percentage of 116% (for/against). North have been a dominant 2nd Half team, but slow starting and very poor stats in the 1st Half, winning only 4 of 12 1st & 2nd quarters with a 1st half percentage of only 88% (for/against). North have been running over the top of their opponents this season as evidenced by their strong 2nd half percentage of 118%. With this ASADA scandal (now WADA) STILL hanging around for the bombers, I expect them to come out galvanised as they have in the past. Usually they have responded strongly for short periods of time, before eventually falling away (be it in individual games or whole seasons). If this game was played a few rounds ago the Bombers arguably would have gone in as small favourites, however after their disappointing performances against the Pies & Freo, and the Roos continually building form, the Roos go in as deserved favourites. I actually think the Dons have the superior midfield, with superstar Heppel supported by the class of Watson, Goddard & Stanton in the engine room. That's some serious class against a Roos team missing their best ball user in Del Santo & their game breaker in Wells. Zaharakis is a big out for the Dons but they should still have enough speed to match the Roos on the outside. Plenty more thoughts on this match, however not enough time to share them. Anyway the Bombers look a great bet to win the 1st half, but I'll play it safe & take the points on offer.

*More plays to follow...

[therealdealau]

GL with the play, I really like it. For me Freo 1Q -5.5 is looking good to go, also the Suns +40.5

[sando]

NRL

Cowboys v Broncos
1* Over 40

Roostes v Bulldogs
2* Roosters -4.5
(-5.5 is ok)

[sando]

NRL

2* Raiders +6

AFL

1.5* Port Adelaide -30.5

[sando]

NRL

Round 11

Rabbitohs v Eels
2* Eels +6.5
0.5* Eels 1-12 ($4.30 William Hill)

Wests Tigers v Cowboys
1.5* Tigers -6
1* Tigers HT/FT ($1.90 Sportsbet/William Hill)

Raiders v Bulldogs
1.5* Raiders 1st Half -4
1.5* Raiders -8 (-7.5 available at Bet 365)

Knights v Broncos
1* Knights 1-12 ($3.10 William Hill)

[aussieH]

Who wins origin

[astrobloke]

qld mate, but there is like 80% chance of the home team winning, so keep that in mind.

But QLD has a stronger team this year, with more veterans and more experience. So of the THREE I bet Maroons, all the way. :-)

[ace_202]

Risky with the Power. I dont think they're as good as they thought.

[aussieH]

Power been really disappointing this year. I think they will still make the eight though

[therealdealau]

So many teams making moves and being competitive, it will be an uphill battle starting against Melbourne this week for Port. The AFL right now is ridiculous, as far as punting is concerned I'm going to keep hitting Freo 1Q and 1H lines and be done with it.

[sando]

I'm back lads!

Have been having a solid NBA season & also a decent run with my fight plays as well, so thought I would return to my old stomping ground at SBR and share some plays for the upcoming NRL season & maybe AFL as well.

[Rustyglobes]

BOOOOOM he's back!!!!!

Good to have you back buddy, best of luck for the new seasons ahead may it be a profitable one.

[therealdealau]

I'm back lads!

Have been having a solid NBA season & also a decent run with my fight plays as well, so thought I would return to my old stomping ground at SBR and share some plays for the upcoming NRL season & maybe AFL as well.

Welcome back mate! Keen to hear some plays as well for UFC 196! Is Tate a shot?

[Don_Omarion]

I'm back lads!

Have been having a solid NBA season & also a decent run with my fight plays as well, so thought I would return to my old stomping ground at SBR and share some plays for the upcoming NRL season & maybe AFL as well.

I have checked many pages of your thread during past hours , and I can say that you are one of the best here

but since 2012 , how on earth !!

Welcome back Champion !!!

Boooooooooooooooom

[sando]

Thanks lads!

So for now will only post NRL plays & maybe the occasional MMA play when I have something solid.

All plays will be 1-5 units, (but usually just 1-2)

Ok let's get to work.

2016 NRL

0-0-0

Panthers @ Raiders

2* Over 43.5
2* Raiders -4 (Luxbet)
-4.5 everywhere else, yes I would still play but only for 1-1.5 units. Yes it's risky to take the spread & total in the same game, but for mine this is the most clear cut game of the round as far as the way I see it unfolding. If it wasn't round 1 would probably play Raiders ATS for 3*

Warriors @ Tigers

1.5* Warriors -7.5 (Bet365, Crown Bet, Luxbet)
yes -8 is fine. Also like the over in this one. Another day game with two teams who favour attack over defence.

Sharks @ Cowboys

1* Sharks +8
1* Sharks 1st Half ML $3.30/+230 (Luxbet)
Would not surprise me if Sharks actually won this game

[sando]

People who know something about NRL will know that the Raiders have been a joke for years, however the tide is turning for this team. They have the buy of the season in Aiden Sezer, to partner (and take the pressure off) Blake Austin. With Sezer's precision passing & field kicking combined with Austins flare & instinctive running game, they could literally have a halves pairing to rival any team (even the Cowboys). They have also added another English international. Panthers are without their two best players to start the season.

[Don_Omarion]

so you stopped NBA posting or betting as whole ???

[sando]

Welcome back mate! Keen to hear some plays as well for UFC 196! Is Tate a shot?

I have thought a lot about this fight mate, and it appears to be a relatively simple equation - If Meisha try's to stand with Holm &/or can't take her down, the Holm's world class striking will probably ring her bell. However Holm seems to have a lot of respect for Meisha and may play it safe and just strike from distance & sprawl for the majority of the fight. Meisha's wrestling is world class & if takes Holm down the she can certainly beat her up! I'm not betting on this fight, because I think Holm will win but don't like her odds. Meisha is certainly worth a speculative unit or half unit at $3.50

so you stopped NBA posting or betting as whole ???

No I still bet on the NBA daily, I just don't have as much time as I used to for posting plays

[luan92]

Welcome back sando! Came on here on thursday to see if you posted anything for the broncs and eels and was devastated when i didnt see anything. Good to have you back for the nrl season. BOL

[Mase of Base]

Good to see you back Sando! GL on the plays mate.

[therealdealau]

Big half from Raiders comin up lets go boys

[sando]

Boys it's a bit late but I'm going to add 1 unit on the over in the Warriors @ Tigers match. Starts in approx 45 minutes...

Warriors @ Tigers
1* Over 44 (can get 43 at Pinny or Bet365)

[aussieH]

I have not bothered with ser for a while. Good to see you back


anyone got any news on if it is raining in the nth qld game.

[Rustyglobes]

Good start to the season Sando, well done on a profitable first day

[sando]

Good start to the season Sando, well done on a profitable first day

Thanks mate. Good to see all the old faces are back.

I should have known better than to back the Warriors on the road in the first game of the season.
Those clowns haven't won a round 1 game since 2009. The squad looks so good on paper however. I'm expecting big things from the Warriors under McFadden this season. It's almost the Kiwi international team...

UFC 196

1.5* Amanda Nunes ($1.94 Pinnacle)

Nunes is an animal! Awesome power. The Russian girl obviously has fantastic striking (world muay thai champion), however her MMA wins have come in the bush leagues. UFC is the big show and Nunes is top 5 in the world.

1.5* Ilir Latiffi via KO ($2.30 Ladbrokes)

1* Jim Miller ($1.69 Ladbrokes)
To win 1 unit - so risking 1.45 units to win 1

1* Over 1.5 rounds McGregor v Diaz ($2.10 William Hill)

[Rustyglobes]

Don't be too hard on yourself Sando, it's the first round of the season and there's always bound to be a couple of upsets here and there before sides settle in to the year proper.

I know you don't have a play on this but what doing you think about Silva vs Taleb ov 1.5 ?

Taleb is a pretty tough and durable fighter

[sando]

Don't be too hard on yourself Sando, it's the first round of the season and there's always bound to be a couple of upsets here and there before sides settle in to the year proper.

I know you don't have a play on this but what doing you think about Silva vs Taleb ov 1.5 ?

Taleb is a pretty tough and durable fighter

To be honest I don't really like it. I think Taleb is massively out classed in grappling & that this fight could be over quick, however I don't have a strong opinion either way, so best if you back your own analysis mate.

[Rustyglobes]

Thanks buddy

[therealdealau]

Sando cheers for the +unit winning plays yesterday! Any NRL today?

[therealdealau]

Nunes absolute animal

[sando]

NRL 2016

4-2 +3.25 units

MMA 2016

2-2 -0.5 units

I like two of the early round NRL matches & will post plays soon...

[therealdealau]

NRL 2016

4-2 +3.25 units

MMA 2016

2-2 -0.5 units

I like two of the early round NRL matches & will post plays soon...

Great start to the NRL!

[sando]

NRL

Bulldogs @ Panthers

2* Bulldogs -4
1* Under 38.5

[sando]

My preferred play is the Bulldogs. They were the stand out team of round 1. Their pack is so big, so skilled & they get back Australian international Klemmer this week, to strengthen the pack even further. They are capable of bashing pretty much every pack in the league when they play hard and fast up the middle. Also Panthers are missing their two best players & play makers. Where are they going to get their points from Jamie Sowards boot? They are not the most creative team to begin with, but no Moylan or Segeyaro is huge. Statistically & historically this game points towrads the under in so many different ways that it is definitely worth a unit, however I like the doggies here, and again would probably play bigger if not so early in the season...

[dRavidC]

good luck sando