[BuckeyeKaptn]

Let as know what was the output of the backtest. I stopped playing this system on the beginning of January since I found a job, I can't stay up all night. I wish to know however, how that 1halfs turn out...

sure

[Huego]

there's a more active thread on this system elsewhere. check therx forum. We're keeping track of the plays over there and have filtered out some of the plays to minimize risk.

[cmdyrds]

can you provide the link to the rx forum. thanks.

[brigade125]

rx forum nba dot com

[justin81]

BuckeyeKapt inspired me to go thru all the played games. The best performing leg is the 5th leg, that is 1H of the 3rd game. Out of 80 games played so far, 52+/-(depending what number you got with your book) have covered in 1H of 3rd game, where 28+/- lost. With flat betting you would be +24ish units. No more than 3 looses in a row happened so far in 5th leg (chasing, labby). Not bad. I wanna check last few seasons to see if this trend have been continoued , but don't have the data. Anyone want to share thiers cuz don't wanna go thru nba.com to check the schedule and then with vegas checking the lines? very time consuming.

[BuckeyeKaptn]

justin go to this website
covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101371839&page=2
post #36 and download that spreadsheet. You can pull every year with spreads etc.

go to this website
http://props.scoresandodds.com/secti...date=10/4/2010
to get the first half lines. Adjust the start date at the end of the address ^^^^^^^^^(the "10/4/2010").
I'm the process of doing it now too. It is time consuming.
I have different numbers then you, but that's going to happen using different websites, but still, this year only, game 3, 1st half is covering at a 58% rate...still positive at a flat bet. Also, (for me) game 3, 1st half is covering at 68% after a game 1 1st half and a game 2 1st half loss. Again, your numbers might come out different. Scores n Odds is the only place I could find 1st half lines.
I'll take 2 wins out of 3 games every day.

[justin81]

justin go to this website
covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=79&sub=101371839&page=2
post #36 and download that spreadsheet. You can pull every year with spreads etc.

go to this website
http://props.scoresandodds.com/secti...date=10/4/2010
to get the first half lines. Adjust the start date at the end of the address ^^^^^^^^^(the "10/4/2010").
I'm the process of doing it now too. It is time consuming.
I have different numbers then you, but that's going to happen using different websites, but still, this year only, game 3, 1st half is covering at a 58% rate...still positive at a flat bet. Also, (for me) game 3, 1st half is covering at 68% after a game 1 1st half and a game 2 1st half loss. Again, your numbers might come out different. Scores n Odds is the only place I could find 1st half lines.
I'll take 2 wins out of 3 games every day.

Thx Kaptn. I'll hope that find some positive trend going on...

[Lctham]

"

[J.M. Disciple]

im surprised this thread died with such a consistent system every year.

[Riceboi]

im surprised this thread died with such a consistent system every year.

because there was more losses than any year I believe.

[playr101]

Im still up following this.. as a labby

-playr101

[J.M. Disciple]

because there was more losses than any year I believe.

This year has a six bet loss? Any idea where the system stands overall?

[J.M. Disciple]

Im still up following this.. as a labby

-playr101

Wanted more action, so i started back up as well. Got the spread sheet downloaded yesterday, so happy to cash in on the LAL today with the CHI fade. I do hope CHI covers whole game though cause other two systems I am following are on CHI. Lots of overlapping, but Labby will take care of that for us!

How much are you up with the labby?

Also if anyone has record / profit for this system this year I would appreciate it. If not no biggie, i know its profitable. I dont knwo about six game chase though. I am doing the previous discussed labby strategy where have one labby line per team until the series is finished; then carry the labby line over to the next game starting.

[J.M. Disciple]

HAVE Minesota 2h right now. +1

[playr101]

IM not sure how much I am up as I am also playing mulitple systems.... But I do know I am up. I have been keeping record of my labby lines and I would have to sift through the info to get the figures. One problem I have is I do not always get in a 2H bet. So if the 1H loses and I cant play the 2H or miss it, I just carry it over to the next game's 1H. The labby does work though. I also dont like chasing either.

I missed MIN 2H. Did it cover? I have to carry it over to the next game (MIL).

-playr101

[J.M. Disciple]

MIN lost both halfs.

TOday We had DET fade, but I missed the play. UTA covered.

Tomorrow 3/12/2013 we have
LAL Fade (A)
NOH Fade (A)
Dallas Fade (C)

[Lctham]

Hey guys,

Well after taking a smashing on this usually solid system (3 full system losses this year before halfway), I went back and had a look at the data/results.

Looking at the first 100 or so series, we saw that a series would cover a half within the first 3 bets 90% of the time.

So what I am doing now is just betting only on the first 3 halves of a series. If I lose 3 in a row, I stop that series, but I then split the losses over the next 2 or 3 series and start again - but just increasing the unit size to recover these losses and gain a unit.

So far its been pretty solid, and it makes chasing far less intense. You dont have to put up the big 20 or so unit size bets!

I still believe in this system, just had a couple of unlucky halves this season. Best of luck

[J.M. Disciple]

Just run a labby as described earlier in the thread. Example, other day i had Dallas fade vs min. min lost both Halfs so my labby was 10-10-10-10-20-30. The next play wasn't until today. i averaged out the line and divded it for todays plays.

Lal fade: 15-15
Dallas fade: 15-15
Noh fade: 15-15

So as you can see even though its a 3rd chase Im only betting 1.5 units and spreading my losses. This is just an example. on the Lal play i didn't like it too much so have fresh line on them.

Labby just takes patience to clear your line and bankroll management obviously.

ps
the 3 game chase at 90% i do not think it will work straight up unless
you chase some series for 2-3 units as you said. 3 game chase loss is roughly 8 units so chase the next four series at 2 units if you choose not to labby.

[Lctham]

Yeh im doing a 3 game chase, but then choosing to cover the losses over the next 2 or 3 series. Seems a bit more simplier than the labby

[J.M. Disciple]

I view them close to.same approach.

might have a 2h on orl will be close. only got +4. if i push first half Im going to avoid 2h

[J.M. Disciple]

Ya i pushed.... i have whole game bet on Lal so avoiding 2h. i believe orl officially won first half based on closing line.

[J.M. Disciple]

Have Dallas fade 4th Bet coming up. doesn't look like mil going to get the job done. Dallas is killing us!!!

[J.M. Disciple]

Ps orl and brk both won first game. hopefully mil.covers 2h at least.

[J.M. Disciple]

Freaking DALLAS fade might go to the 3rd game!!! 5th and 6th Tier!! Crazy!

[J.M. Disciple]

Mar 14^th Dallas Fade: 3rd game
Mar 13^th Mem fade: 1st game
Mar 13^th phx fade: 1st game

What were the series losses? Debating if we should only fade sub .500 teams. A lot less series obviously. Also the -5 1st half filter would come into play often I would think.

[Lctham]

This is why i stop after 3 bets, teams seem to get on a roll and the 4/5/6 bets just dont hit with enough frequency to offset the risk this year. The teams that covered 6 bets were hou, spurs, and mem

[J.M. Disciple]

There you go all +.500 teams likely to be in play offs. might be a good filter.. unless both teams are +.500 then it off sets filter.

[J.M. Disciple]

Just realized phx fade should not be a play because of the -5 or higher on the first game. fingers crossed on this unofficial play

[cooler54]

Hey lctham i saw your post regarding how u do chase sysems...

"So what I am doing now is just betting only on the first 3 halves of a series. If I lose 3 in a row, I stop that series, but I then split the losses over the next 2 or 3 series and start again - but just increasing the unit size to recover these losses and gain a unit."

I think its a great idea when following a 4 half/game or 6 chase cause obviously the betting gets pretty crazy after 3 straight losses. Plus its super rare when a series will lose 2 in a row, so cutting the losses early and putting them into the next series may be a good idea. Can you provide me an example of how exactly you do it in regards to dividing the losses and betting the next series and your overall experience with it so far? Much appreciated sir!
Matt

[Lctham]

Hey cooler,

sorry havent been here for a while,

The revised chase system was going good, but I've got a bit busy of late and missed a couple of bets which screwed me over!

anyway, what I was doing was just betting on the first 3 halves, if all the 3 bets lost, then you would be down around 8.26 units. So then I pick the next new series, and wager half of this on the 1st bet, so bet to win 4.13 units (you could add on another unit as well to make sure this new series wins 1 unit too), then you just carry on from there. If you happen to lose 3 more bets, the units start adding up, so you can then split across to the next 2 or 3 new series, and just go from there.

It gets a little messy, but as long as you keep track of your bets and series, its fairly manageable.

It was going good, then I missed a couple of half bets, and I fell behind, Im pretty sure the a bet covers in the first 3 halves still 80-90% of the time.

Let me know how you get on!

BOL!

[domi]

Is anyone doing this anymore ? So it only profit in a short year ?

[Riceboi]

Lctham's method seems to be better. Not sure if I will have time to do this, but this system is profitable if you put in the time and are available to make all the required half time bets.

[domi]

Where can I find it?

[Riceboi]

Where can I find it?

it's post 1522 on this page.

[horseface2721]

bump. wondering if anyone plans on doing this during the season?