Although after 12 days of pre season testing Mercedes still look to hold a big advantage, the rest of the field could be quite shuffled and provide some good betting opportunities.
There is an oft repeated line amongst F1 fans, "it's only testing". ie: nothing can be relied upon as teams have different agendas and often hide key parts until the last moment. But here is what I think we could take from pre season testing.
Ferrari have made a big leap in engine performance. Both the factory team and Sauber consistently ran top or among the best times on almost every day of testing. Although fans are wary of Ferrari doing 'glory runs' on low fuel in testing to grab the headlines, I think most agree that Ferrari have made a big step forward.
I think Sebastian Vettel -200 for a Top 6 finish is about the right odds, not value or anything, but I am confident he will perform well this weekend and if he does a 6th would be the minimum result.
Less certain about Kimi Raikkonen -140 for the top 6, based on last years horrible performance. But he looks and talks like all the issues he had have been fixed for this year. And unfortunately Kimi may be the one fighting with Vettel for that top 6 on Sunday.
Williams I think you can tell a lot about how good a car might be from Massa. The veteran is an emotional character who is a confidence driver. he wears his heart on his sleeve when unhappy about a car. Both he and Bottas have been talking up Williams as much improved and what they feel is the clear 2nd best car on the grid after the factory Mercs. I also think they are probably right.
Felipe Massa -150 for a top 6 seems like ridiculously good odds to me. How Ricciardo and Vettel can be -200 ahead of him is 'strange' and I think says more about people's perception of Massa as a bit unreliable and less talented than Bottas than the reality of how good the car is and how good Massa has shown himself to be in a good car he trusts.
Red Bull Really tough to be sure where they sit after testing. Thye suffered reliability issues and the Renault power plant still appears to be down on raw horsepower compared to the Merc and Ferrari. That said there have been several years Red Bull have looked in trouble or behind during pre season testing only to come out in Melbourne and be fine. Last year the prime example where they hardly got the car to run properly during testing and then somehow Ricciardo comes out and drives it home in 3rd place and soon after wins a race.
Ricciardo odds are all too low to bet right now and Kyvat is too much of an unknown in the car to risk money before practice.
Mercedes Rosberg was suffering from a neck injury and missed quite a bit of testing. Neck muscles are very important in F1 and if he has any sort of remaining issue or weakness of the neck it will affect his performance over a race distance.
Lewis Hamilton +100 to win race might be too low to bet right now but i doubt it gets better and may be worth using to start an open parlay for the Cup race?
Torro Rosso *Alert* This car appears to have a good step forward for this year. Although saddled with the same possibly questionable engine as Red Bull and a 17yo and 20yo rookie driver pairing I suspect STR will be the 'dark horse' in the mid field this season. I expect them o pick up points just about every race if not all.
One or both drivers for a top 10 at +275 is great value I think. I just wish I had any clue which one might perform better out of the box. right now i suspect it might be the older Sainz. Probably have to wait until Friday night to see if there is any obvious faster man though. Although maybe both now is the way to go.
Max Verstappen +275
Carlos Sainz Jr +275
Sauber The car looked very good and reliable in testing. Unfortunately they have signed 3 differn pay drivers for the 2 seats and have been ruled against in court ordering them to race the left out driver, causing yet another problem. Although I think they have potential to do much better this year than last I suspect that wont be realized for a few races until they get their rookie pay drivers settled in and confident. Danger for a top 10 spot though.
Lotus Showed flashes of brilliance during testing but tough to tell exactly where they sit. The swap to a Mercedes engine will definitely benefit them and they should be expected to be fighting for podiums some time this year.
Right now the only betting option worth considering might be fastest lap. If they show any speed in practice the current +7000 odds will be cut in half.
Romain Grosjean +7000 Fastest Lap
Pastor Maldonado +7000 Fastest Lap
McLaren The car is sorted worse than many of the cars were first race last year. If they make it to the end that will be the best they can expect I think. Fade all day as the name is currently seeing Button way over valued in all markets.
Force India Also behind the others, only managing to get their 2015 car on the track near the end of testing. Fade until we see how sorted they are and how good th new design is. They have been under financial strain and I suspect that will impact badly on the first version of their new car.
Manor GP probably will not qualify to race. If they do its just for practice as they will be lapped a few times.
Local TV coverage of the entire Friday activities;
5Dimes still have Verstappen and Sainz at +275 for a top 10. I think this is about double true odds. Plus I am really hot for them. If you want to pick just one, it would be Sainz for me. Verstappen had an interrupted P2 session which might affect him some in his first GP weekend whilst Sainz has had a smooth practice and lots of laps.
They at +110 and +125 for top 10s at Bet365 by way of comparison.
Practice 2 times below.
Massa and Ricciardo did not run due to engine problems requiring a complete change over. That will set both of them back as P2 is the most important session of the weekend pre-race. But won't be a killer. I still like Massa for a top 6 at -150 (think that should be more like -250 personally)
P
Name
Team
Best Time
Laps
1
Nico Rosberg
Mercedes
1:27.697
29
2
Lewis Hamilton
Mercedes
1:27.797
25
3
Sebastian Vettel
Ferrari
1:28.412
33
4
Kimi Raikkonen
Ferrari
1:28.842
33
5
Valtteri Bottas
Williams
1:29.265
32
6
Daniil Kvyat
Red Bull
1:30.016
27
7
Carlos Sainz Jr
Toro Rosso
1:30.071
41
8
Pastor Maldonado
Lotus
1:30.104
11
9
Romain Grosjean
Lotus
1:30.205
37
10
Nico Hulkenberg
Force India
1:30.473
30
11
Felipe Nasr
Sauber
1:30.755
33
12
Sergio Perez
Force India
1:30.980
32
13
Jenson Button
McLaren
1:31.387
21
14
Max Verstappen
Toro Rosso
1:31.395
6
15
Marcus Ericsson
Sauber
1:32.303
14
16
Kevin Magnussen
McLaren
1:33.289
4
Ferrari showed impressive long run pace and I suspect this P2 leaderboard will closely resemble the race finishing order. When on the long runs together Vettel appeared to have a few tenths of a second on Raikonen whenever I looked at their times. (could have been fuel but doubtful f they were both doing race sim runs)
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