Not usually one to post but thought I'd start a thread on AFL plays since there doesn't look to be much activity thus far. Hopefully the regular guys who post come back as well as there are some good AFL cappers around here.
Been following footy forever and is pretty much the only sport where I usually go ok at capping. Not going to make any outlandish claims about winning % or locks etc, just looking to keep a record of my thoughts and plays as the season goes along. Looking forward to hopefully discussing plays with others along the way.
I usually stick to betting on the result, either point spread, money line or margins, plus player exotics - total possesions head to head or over/under, as well as dream team props. Have always been horrible with totals, so steer clear of them.
Standard play is usually $50 or $100 so for the sake of easy record keeping will call $50 = 1 unit.
Looking forward to bounce down in a few hours, will post a couple of plays shortly, hopefully we go ok!
Just a quick note, will be taking it easy round 1. Usually there are 1 or 2 curve balls in the first round, but the main reason is that I find it very easy to get carried away after so much anticipation for the start of the season. Will mostly look to take advantage of the sportsbet money line special - If your team leads at end of any quarter and loses, money back up to $100. Will also dabble in a few player props if anything stands out.
Carlton v Richmond
Richmond M/L - 2 Units at $1.53
As mentioned above, only playing this due to the money back special. Highly skeptical of Richmond's credentials this year, but do not rate Carlton's list at all. Think the line is about spot on so not too much interest for me there. At worst Carlton may sneak in and take it late, but hopefully Richmond will at least lead at some break to get a push at least. A quick anaylsis of the game - Both teams top tier mids are about even, but I expect the next tier of Richmonds mids - Ellis, Conca, Miles etc to be a step above Carlton's support mids and should be the difference. Don't know which Jack Riewoldt will show up, but would rather back the Richmond forward set up with Griffiths in support until I see something from Liam Jones in his new colours.
Brandon Elllis - Over 24.5 Disposals - 1 unit at $1.87 (sportsbet)
Just noticed this one is juiced more now, into $1.75 from when I grabbed it last night. This is the only player prop that really stood out for me. Usually the line for these is set aound about a players average for obvious reasons. Off the bat, this number is lower than his average from last year of around 26 touches per game, however the real highlight for me is Ellis' growth as a ball magnet as 2014 progressed. If you look at his second half of the year, he only went below 24 touches once in 11 games. He has developed into a real solid outside player, sitting on the wing for easy touches, and against the Carlton mids, with all attention on Cotchin/Deledio, I think he should cover. I am not putting too much stock into his round 2 performance against Carlton last year as he was still finding his feet early in the season. Also factoring in his age and experience level, he should be just about hitting his peak for on field output and I expect him to have a year at least on par to last year, if not better.
That's all for now, BOL all.
Last edited by Lazzara180; 04-02-15 at 01:04 AM.
Reason: typo
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