[Mase of Base]

Going to make a thread and track my plays for the ITM Cup.

Probably should just sit back and watch opening weekend and I will for the championship sides in most cases. But I feel familiar the majority of the guys in the premiership division.

Wind will probably be an issue tonight although it should ease up as the game goes I feel kicking for goal will be tough and territory will be the key. Total is what I'm looking at tonight and it's set at 43.5, probably alright for a Taranaki total but I feel a little low for a Counties side who like to play running rugby. Whilst I see goal kicking being an issue I think it may help in a way as teams will look for touch (and hopefully tries!) instead of longer range shot.

No doubt there will be early season rust from both and I'm hoping Taranaki don't turn it into too much of a grind. I think the game will avoid any serious rain, possibly some showers.

Over 43.5 1U

[Mase of Base]

Winds still super strong and in hindsight I should of played over 4.5 tries instead but too late now!

C'mon points!

Slight lean to the Naki 1-12, quite like the look of their backline but the books and media seem to have a high opinion of Counties this season, I'm not convinced but we shall see.

[Mase of Base]

Terrible terrible read. Conditions were bad the first half it seemed like both sides were in each others 22s the entire time but couldn't score, mostly down to dreadful line outs. Ended up doubling down on the 2nd half under which I won't count, no excuses second half the weather came okay which was the only thing I got right about this game.

Looking at the Southland/Bay game and Otago/Harbour games for the rest of the round as plays the rest I'm not so sure on.

[HeisenBet]

Best of luck with your plays mate, I'll be taking some tips off you I reckon,

[Mase of Base]

Thanks mate I don't recommend tailing till I can pick a winner! When I'm hot I'm hot and when I'm cold.........!

No play for the Bay game, thought I'd be taking the under when it came out but it's quite low and I'm not sure how either will play pace wise. Sapoaga is a huge pick up for Southland which could bring some more points to their games with his line breaks and I'm a Bay boy so think this side is not that bad this season. Don't mind the over 3.5 tries actually, will do a bit of research and weather check and may end up coming up with a play!

0-1 -1U

[Mase of Base]

Back again.

Ended up going up the sunny coromandel last weekend (finished up the weekend with a few phone bets 1-2 on the ITM cup, blah). Going to lock in the under 51.5 tonight. Conditions will be pretty much perfect.

My reasoning is the Harbour first five imo played very negative rugby last week he kicked so much ball away and under the roof in Dunedin that's unacceptable. Will we see the same again? Maybe and I'm banking on it. Southland/Bay had a fair few points but away maybe different.

*Nothing big yet just 1u.

[davopnz]

Different 10 for Harbour tonight

[Mase of Base]

Different 10 for Harbour tonight

Ah damnit! Oh well bets in. What are you on Davo?

*Just checked, GL with Harbour. They need to get Lee involved that guy is classy, he'll be all over those Southland outside backs with some room.

**And I still like the under, too many points for a Southland game.

[Mase of Base]

Try in the first minute! I'm on autofade SBR!

[HeisenBet]

Sometimes points being scored very early is helpful in having a bet on the under in play as the total gets inflated. I have under 56.5 in my pocket, let's see how it works out.

[HeisenBet]

With Southland being content to kick penalty goals it says something for their mindset, which may be a positive for under betters.

[Mase of Base]

With Southland being content to kick penalty goals it says something for their mindset, which may be a positive for under betters.

Yeah I'm not quite dead yet. Feels like I'm on the right side and got it right, just those two early tries are looking to be the difference, nothing has really happened since then and that was really poor d from Southland.

[HeisenBet]

Yeah I'm not quite dead yet. Feels like I'm on the right side and got it right, just those two early tries are looking to be the difference, nothing has really happened since then and that was really poor d from Southland.

Sometimes you can have the right side but wrong result. Should be an interesting last 10 minutes.

[HeisenBet]

Looking good for you mate.

[Mase of Base]

A win! Really felt like I capped that game correctly (actually thought they'd struggle to hit 40). Can't belive it nearly lost because the Southland half didn't put the ball, only in the ITM cup. Other that those crazy early tries nothing happened.

1-1, -0.1U

[HeisenBet]

Well done and thanks. I took the under in play as I said because of your reasoning.

[Mase of Base]

Well done and thanks. I took the under in play as I said because of your reasoning.

Cheers mate. Haven't looked into the other games yet but judging by that total after the opening week (a lot of scoring) the totals might be too high. I'll be off down the road on sunday to watch my team the mighty Bay v Tasman!

[Mase of Base]

For what it's worth I'm on the under 42.5 in the NRL tonight. Not going to add it to this thread but feel it's an okay play.

Looking at the line ups I don't see a whole bunch of points, I think the only way this goes over is a rout which is possible with the Tigers.

[davopnz]

Nice work!

[Mase of Base]

Think we're going to see a few points tonight in the Hawkes Bay v Taranaki match so taking the over 45.5. Like the look of both backlines even if neither did much (any!) scoring last week. In for a good midfield clash with Ngatai up against Fruen. Ihia West is a decent kicker and exciting player I think he may get the Bay ticking over quite nicely tonight.

Conditions should be fine so no excuses there.

1U.

[HeisenBet]

Good luck buddy. I'll be tailing you on this one for a little bit of early morning action here.

[HeisenBet]

A good start, both teams giving the ball some air.

[Mase of Base]

Jeez way harder than it needed to be but hey got there in the end.

[HeisenBet]

Well done again sir, good work.

[Mase of Base]

Another late NRL play as I was tuned into the rugby but the over 39.5. Parra don't defend, Manly score enough, also think the Eels get a few points. To be honest haven't checked the live weather it doesn't phase me too much with the low total but I know it hasn't been flash. I HATE NRL overs also so this is something new for me.

[Mase of Base]

First shield game of the year coming up Counties v Otago. Conditions again perfect but I'm taking the under. Reasoning being it's a shield game 53.5 is a lot for a game that means so much, 4 try bonus points won't be on eithers agenda unless it's a rout and I don't see one here.

1U under 53.5.

[Mase of Base]

Ouch 15 points in the last ten minutes. Counties got complacent trying to get more points and very nearly lost when they should of been winding down the clock.

[Mase of Base]

New Zealand under 28.5 team total. 2U.

[HeisenBet]

The All Blacks might score 50 the way this one is going.

[HeisenBet]

Australia have tightened up quite a lot, though I think they may drop off tackles in the last 15 minutes.

[Mase of Base]

Really understimated the All Blacks, didn't think they'd be that good this season for some reason but what an incredible performance that was. Australia could of played with extra men and they still would of lost that game.

Wednesday night game in an hour or so. Fairly to tough to get a read on each side with Waikato blowing out Wellington who got hammered again, losing big to Canterbury is nothing to worry about they'll do that to everyone this season. They really like to use their outside backs who have extreme pace although they have made a few switches with it being a midweek game throughout their side.

Taranaki played a reasonably entertaining game against Hawkes Bay, I'm not sure how many points they have in them on a week in week out basis but they did manage to put up 26 there.

Going to take the under 53.5 for 1U, think there may be a fair bit of forward play tonight keeping the game in close with a few scrums to chew some clock.

[Mase of Base]

Coming back for some more punishment tonight. Canterbury have made a tonne of changes but those coming in are quality which shows the incredible depth down there. Canty -12.5 Half time, think they'll start well and cover this, 1.5U.

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TJ Perenara back for Wellington tonight think he'll get that bereft of ideas backline moving in a more decisive manner. Jeremy Thrush is a solid inclusion on their forward pack also, tonne of experience coming back there. Whole lot of money looks like it's coming on the over but I'm not buying into that, if it does go over it's not by much imo. Think Wellington can get out to an early lead here and cover the 7.5 half time spread for 1.5U, also on the under at a good price of 2.05 for 0.5U.

Manawatu are going to have to score a few points for that to happen and I'm hoping Wellington have been given a rocket in training after the mountain of points they've given up.

3-4, -1.4U

[Mase of Base]

Jeez Wellington what was that, butcher two easy tries and probably another then miss a routine penalty then give up 6 points from not much!

Game total at 39.5 live at HT I'll have me some of that under for 2U to add to my burial. Don't see how they score 28 or more here.

[Mase of Base]

Took a day off and watched the rugby as I'm way off stride.

Looking at the football tonight and noticed the Mancs are playing with two strikers and three wingers in their line up, plus their 'defense'. Burnley are very average and should head back down but still think there'll be some goals in this one and it's decent price at a pick em. So 2U on the over.

Also think that college football game goes over in Ireland. Don't like that the total is so low but it'd take a pair to lay any serious money on a college under that low. 1U over penn v what ever florida team that is that bortles used to play for.