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Originally Posted by therealdealau
Cheers boys good luck to you both
Got a strong feeling that Adelaide are gonna come out of the blocks hard and might even lead at quarter time or even half time
A bet like Adelaide/Collingwood/Collingwood/Collingwood @ 9.00 (Quarter by Quarter) or Adelaide/Collingwood (Half/Full) @ 7.20 looks really tempting but i'm just gonna let it slide and hopefully can hit a few of my official plays
Well Adelaide surprised me last night, their pressure was brilliant for 4 quarters and Collingwood simply didn't handle it well enough. Sloane and Jaensch drew for the most touches with 24 a piece so at least there was some return for that bet.
Moving on to tonight:
Sydney under 39.5 @ 2.10 x 1.5 Units (Sportsbet)
Michael Hibberd v David Zaharakis @ 1.70 x 2 Units (Sportsbet/Dreamteam)
Brendon Goddard v Dyson Heppell @ 1.50 x 2 Units (Sportsbet/Supercoach)
Essendon total game points under 76.5 @ 1.88 x 1.5 Unit (Sportsbet)
Lets have a winning night!!
Last edited by beeeej12; 05-16-14 at 07:33 AM.
So zaka has a 15 disposal 3rd quarter which destroyed my bet!!
Realized that the price paying for the essendon under score wasn't 1.91 (as previously posted) it was 1.88. Small mistake but still.
Went 2 and 2 tonight
Really liking Richmond Under 99.5 @ 1.88 (not 1.91 haha)
Saturday Plays:
Jack Riewoldt to score 3 or more goals @ 1.74 x 1.5 Stakes (Sportsbet)
Frawley although he has been playing forward a bit this year is a big loss since he normally does a pretty good job on him.
Richmond total points Under 99.5 @ 1.91 x 1 Stake (Sportsbet)
Brandon Ellis Most Disposals Group B @ 3.75 x .5 Stake (Sportsbet)
Consists of Ellis, Grigg, Conca, Houli, M. Jones, Viney, Grimes and Dunn
North Melbourne -13.5 (Last Quarter Only) @ 1.88 x 1.5 Stakes (Sportsbet)
Brisbane are yet to win a last quarter in 2014 and i think this is where North will really run away with it later today
Cheers Boys!
One week my luck will turn! Missed out on the Sloane most disposals (group b) by 1 and the ellis one by 2. Bloody Jack Riewoldt kicks 1.3 if he turns that round to 3.1 i win. Matter of time
This Week:
Units Risked: 15.5
Units Won: 11.5
Total Profit: - 4.0
This Year:
Wins/Losses 14/16
Percentage Wins: 46.6%Total Profit: -7.1 Units
Round 10 Friday Night Plays:
3 x Geelong H2H into Collingwood H2H @1.88 (Sportsbet)
1 x North Melbourne +3.5 Q3 only @ 1.90 (Sportsbet)
Good start to the round, will be even better if collingwood gets up.
Adding:
1 x Richmond 1 - 39 @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)
GWS are playing disgraceful skill errors are terrible, so many missed handballs
Adding a live bet:
1.5 x Richmond -67.5 half time line (Sportsbet)
No idea why this is soooooo low??? Its already 61 points?
Madness. I would have had 20 units on that if I saw this (although it was a 74 pt game at HT). Obviously a bad line, but sportsbet tend to pay out on bad lines. I've had a few obvious mistakes not cancelled.
Your right should have put a lot more on it, just didn't have the guts in me!! It did only just get there in the end. I thought the 3 qtr time line which was around 88.5 was low as well but didn't jump on
1 x Port Adelaide/Hawthorn total game points over 186.5 @ 1.88 (sportsbet)
Adding:
2 x Gold Coast over 15.5 @ 1.52 (Sportsbet)
1 x Carlton Quarter time leader @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
Round 10 Friday Night Plays:
3 x Geelong H2H into Collingwood H2H @1.88(Sportsbet)
1 x North Melbourne +3.5 Q3 only @ 1.90Good start to the round, will be even better if collingwood gets up.
Adding:
1 x Richmond 1 - 39 @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)Adding a live bet:
1.5 x Richmond -67.5 half time line
No idea why this is soooooo low??? Its already 61 points?1 x Port Adelaide/Hawthorn total game points over 186.5 @ 1.88 (sportsbet)Adding:
2 x Gold Coast over 15.5 @ 1.52 (Sportsbet)
1 x Carlton Quarter time leader @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
Thats more like it!!!
This Week:
Units Risked: 10.5
Units Won: 15.5
Total Profit: +5.0 units
This Year:
Wins/Losses 19/18
Percentage Wins: 51.4%Total Profit: -2.1 Units
Much better week!! Was stiff to lose the port/hawks total by .5 of a point but oh well!
Just got home from the great win by my blue boys!
Round 11 Lets get it:
2.5 x Sydney Under 39.5 @ 2.10 (Sportingbet)
1 x Total match points under 177.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
.5 x Luke Parker Most disposals group b @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)
Group contains Parker, Bird, Malceski, Shaw, Kelly, Duncan, Mackie and Motlop
Cheers boys lets get em ey!
YUCK! What an awful start! Really thought the swans under 39.5 was the lock of the year but so much for that!
Malceski had a night out and had 5 more touches then parker!
And an 11 goal last quarter but the total points to bed
Time to bounce back with some lesser value but bigger plays for the rest of the round
Adding a few team total plays now:
1.5 x Western Bulldogs Under 68.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
2 x Melbourne Under 68.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
1.5 x Essendon Under 90.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
1.5 x Brisbane/Carlton Total Points OVER 171.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
2 x Saints +52.5 @ 1.65 (Pick your own line/Sportsbet)
Expecting a lowish scoring match, Collingwood have showed time and time again their inability to put sides away. Also i think the Bye last week for the saints will help them refresh and regroup after a very poor month
3 x Adelaide @ 1.59 (Sportsbet)
1.5 x Adelaide - 9.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
2 x Fremantle -56.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet) *Live Bet*
1.5 x GWS +17.5 Quarter time line @ 1.88 (Sportsbet) *Live Bet*
1.5 x Half time Line Hawthorn - 13.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet) *Live Bet*
2 x Hawthorn - 14.5 3QT Line @ 1.88 (Sportsbet) *Live Bet*
5 x Hawthorn over 15.5 @ 2.20 (Sportsbet) *Live Bet*
Going for broke now!
Meaning I got buried with ya lol
Mate i was just waiting for Hawthorn to say okay enough is enough and kick a couple late ones just like port did but it never happened!!
This Week:
Units Lost: 19.5
Units Won: 16.05
Total Profit: -3.45
This Year:
Wins/Losses 24/28
Percentage Wins: 46.2%Total Profit: -5.55 Units
Hawthorn Killed me with the live bets! Was just expecting them to kick away like a good team should. We all know Hawthorn were missing a fair few premiership stars but still!!
Melbourne were again impressive, this time taking it up to top of the ladder Port! Port have been very impressive at home but continue to show they are vulnerable on the road.
Sydney WOW! I take my hat off to anyone who had them winning comfortably on Thursday Night, when was the last time we saw such a complete side?? Perfect mix of speed and skill across the ground. A coaches dream up forward and perhaps some of the most underrated players down back? Including the likes of Nick Smith, Dane Rampe, RhyceShaw who are all led by Ted Richards.
Halfway mark of the year just about and i have my eye on a few future markets:
Adelaide leading Goal scorer:
2.5 x Taylor Walker @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Carlton leading Goal scorer:
1.5 x Lachie Henderson @ 2.25 (Sportsbet)
Collingwood leading Goal scorer:
.5 x Jamie Elliot @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Gold Coast leading Goal scorer:
5 x Tom Lynch @ 1.55 (Sportsbet)
Top non Victorian Team (including finals)
2 x Sydney @ 2.50 (Sportsbet)
Minor Premiership
3.5 x Port Adelaide @ 2.75 (Sportingbet)
3 x Sydney @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)
Brownlow Medal
5 x Gary Ablett @ 1.95 (Sportsbet)
Most Brownlow Team Votes
1.5 x Travis Boak @ 1.85 (Sportsbet)
Just a few markets where i see a little bit of value.
I believe the minor premiership is a 2 horse race between the swans and port. Port sitting pretty 2 games clear on top of the ladder but i think they might have a couple of slip ups when they have to travel to play teams on the road such as Sydney, Collingwood, Freo and even Gold Coast. Sydney have only 2 games that i see which are genuine 50/50 which are Port at the 'portress' and Hawthorn at the G.
Taylor Walker to me offers extremely good value at 3.00. Jenkins and Betts lead with 19 and 18 goals respectively and Tex is only on 6 however Tex back in the side will mean he becomes Adelaide's main target going forward. His 5 goal performance on the weekend shows what we all know he is capable of once he plays a few more games.
The champ, Gazza, is having yet another stellar year and the only thing i see stopping him is an injury or suspension but fingers crossed the best player in the comp gets what he deserves which is a 3rd Brownlow. So far this year i don't see much competition for Ablett where as this time last year it seemed out of him or Pendles. However it is also the same time of the year when we saw Joel Selwood turn it on. His second half of the year was incredible last year and there is no reason why he or any other player for that matter can't have a huge second half of the year and put some pressure on Ablett.
The rising star is an extremely hard market to have a bet on in my opinion this year, since there are soooo many talented players including the likes of Dunstan, Mcdonald, Langdon, Aish, Kolodjashnji, Kelly and many others. Also i lack knowledge on how a rising star is chosen or what exactly the judges are looking for. If i had to guess i would say Langdon or maybe Dunstan are leading the pack right now.
The coleman medal is another really hard market this year. Especially since i think the days of the big full forward kicking multiple bags of goals throughout the season has gone. The Leaderboard currently has Jack Riewoldt (31), Luke Breust (29), Jay Schulz (28), Tom Hawkins (28) and Nick Riewoldt (27) as its top 5 but the chasing pack aren't far behind at all and contains many players who are capable of having a a big match. The best value that i see include the likes of Franklin at 7.00 and Schulz at 8.00 but again I see this as a very open market.
Finally to win the flag, is another very open market. There are many teams that are capable of winning it this year. Personally i think the lack of finals experience for Port Adelaide's young group will be the difference when or if they come up against a team like the Hawks, Freo or Sydney. I know they were good enough to beat the Cats last year in the finals and if they do finish top 2 and get home finals at the portress they will be hard to stop from making the grand final but i just dont think they can win it. Freo are a side that should make the top 4 with a soft run home and will be really driven after seeing last year's grand final as a missed opportunity. Making the top 4 will make Freo an extremely tough team to knock out before the prelims. The Hawks will gain some of their stars in the back half of the year (including their coach). With a full healthy list, i believe the hawks are probably equal best (with sydney) if not the best team in the comp. If they win it this year that will mean they would have won 3 premierships in the last 7 years which would almost equal Geelong's run of 3 in 5 years (07,09,11) which side would you take?? As for Sydney they are perhaps the most complete side in the comp and have a team that has plenty of finals experience as well as a game style that can easily hold up when it comes to finals. If i had to choose who will make it and then win it, i would predict a Sydney/Fremantle Grand Final, in which we would see Sydney win in a low scoring affair much like the 05 and 06 games.
Would love to hear all your thoughts on any of these bets or my analysis' so please feel free.
Cheers guys
Early Round 12 play:
1.5 x West Coast Total points under 75.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
West coast have been struggling to score so far this year and now with Kennedy out, i can see this trend continuing at least for one more week hopefully
2 x Western Bulldogs total points under 98.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
1 x Fremantle total points under 96.5 @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
Sportsbet have given us the opportunity to have a go at a nice middle tonight with $2 Lines
5 x Geelong -29.5 @ 2.00 (Sportsbet)
5 x Geelong Under 39.5 @ 2.30 (Sportsbet)
I was personally gonna do Geelong under 39.5 as i think tonight is gonna be closer then what people may think. Geelong are going to come out breathing fire after being embarrassed last week. However i think Carlton can stay in the game since these two teams normally match up pretty well against each other. Pretty sure 4 of the last 5 games between these two has been decided by less then 39
Last edited by beeeej12; 06-05-14 at 08:39 PM. Reason: Line movement
2 x Hawthorn 25+ @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)
2 x Western Bulldogs -19.5 @ 1.91 (Sportsbet)
1.5 x Fremantle Under 39.5 @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
Multi: 2.5 x Hawthorn x Essendon x Sydney x Collingwood x North Melbourne @ 2.62
(Sportsbet H2H Multi promo +15% on winning bet)
Was proud of my blue boys last night, many believed we were going to get blown out of the water by a rampaging Geelong outfit but we stuck to it, few controversial umpiring decisions but was still such a good game of footy.
Profited + 1.5 units last night lets keep it going
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