1. #1
    Coopertrooper
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    Coopertrooper's 2014 AFL Thread

    I'm back again in 2014 after a reasonable 2013 season, where we made 25.06 units of profit, at an ROI of 12.61%! (2013 thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more-sport...fl-thread.html )


    This year I will look to get off to a much better start. 2013 was my first year posting plays so I played around a bit, finding which bet types did and didn't work, while I also made too many plays early. I don't just play the lines or totals and will also post a number of parlay/multiple bets, so not all of my bets are available worldwide. However, I do try and post a number of plays early in the week and I don't post ridiculously high-risk bets - My usual bet size is 0.5-3.0 units, with the occasional 4 or 5 unit play (I average around 1.25-1.5 units per bet). Big profits are always the main aim, but I believe that it needs to be kept in context of how much is actually being bet to achieve that, so I also keep a Return on Investment figure (Profit/Units risked) as another way of tracking performance throughout the year. I try to provide some analysis where I can, or at least the angle that I have behind a play.

    I will also be making some small changes this year. Last year I posted a few money back specials/bonus bet offers but did not include them in any totals. This year I will trial keeping a record of them (in dollar amounts, as units can vary from person to person) wherever there is a special available (assuming that 1 unit =$100, so a 0.5 unit play where a money back special exists with a limit of $100 will count as $50 in the bonus tally).

    My aim for the year is to try and again hit an ROI of over 10%. With the amount I bet, that will hopefully end with a nice profit like last year, so I will aim for a profit of 20 units.

    Anyway, onto the good stuff. I am starting this thread early as I have had a look at the futures markets and have seen a couple of plays I like:



    Futures Play #1 - Hawthorn to win the premiership, $5.00 X 2 units (Ladbrokes)

    Futures Play #2 - Parlay:
    -Hawthorn Premiers, $5.00
    -Gary Ablett to win the Brownlow, $7.00

    TOTAL: $35.00 X 0.5 units (Ladbrokes)


    Futures Play #3 - Port Adelaide to make top 4, $7.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)


    Hawthorn go into the 2014 season in fantastic shape. Having had the best list over a number of seasons, the hawks finally broke through to win their second premiership in 6 years, which is still seen by many as being an under-achievement for the list they have had. The list is still fantastic, minus only Lance Franklin, so there is no reason why the hawks can't make it 2 in a row. Their main rivals appear to be Fremantle and Sydney. Freo made their first grand final off good form coming into the finals series and have an exciting list, so they are a real chance to go one better in 2014. However, as shown on Grand Final day, they don't appear to quite be able to match it with the hawks, certainly not in 2013. The swans fell short of the grand final, however they acquired Franklin off the hawks to go with Tippett, but did so at the expense of a number of fringe players, while also raising the ire of a number of core players for going against the team ethos of an even spread without the high-paid stars. The swans still look strong, but some players may be found out and their forwardline now looks too top-heavy to me.

    The rest of the competition then appears to fall away a bit. I have Port Adelaide as being a bolter. Their rapid improvement under Ken Hinkley took many by surprise, myself included. The list had already appeared to be building well, but the new input on and off the field (Kochie takes a lot of the off-field credit) sped the process up, with port putting new structures into place to help foster a good young list. The $7 on offer for them to make another step up into the top 4 is very juicy, given some teams appear to be on the way down, so I'm playing 1 unit on it.

    Next there is the cats, who fall into the category just mentioned. Having had a prolonged stay at the top, they have begun their decline. They have lost players over the past few years due to aging, with 2013 seeing the end of Corey, Chapman, J Hunt and Podsiadly, so I can see them falling into the bottom half of the 8. Then there are Collingwood and Richmond. The pies are my side, so I watch them closely and am very happy with what I see. The list is being rejuvenated by club legend Buckley and they are building for the future in very exciting fashion. However, despite many of my fellow fans thinking the pies will be pushing this year, I believe we still have a few issues, particularly down back, which will still need ironing out, so I see us likely being in the bottom half of the 8. The tigers are also an interesting side, who have slowly built themselves back into the finals fold, much to the delight of the tiger army. However, the tigers still have a lot of work to do up forward and are yet to win a final in a long time, so they are not likely to be a major contender.

    North Melbourne and Essendon are other sides also making claims as contenders, however they are likely to only be minor contenders. North have played some good football in recent times, but have a few mental issues. They are unable to win enough games when in a winning position, which is the next step they need to take. The bombers, despite a good list and good football in the first half of 2013, dropped off after the peptide scandal began to bite, with the public and media heavily criticising the bombers. With players still facing the possibility of bans and a stand in coach while Hird is suspended, the bombers are unlikely to overcome the odds and win.

    All factors considered, I see the $5.00 available on the hawks and wonder how they are those odds. I am playing 2 units on them, and also playing half a unit on a double with Ablett to win The Brownlow Medal. Gaz looks like the man to beat for the Brownlow again this year, as the suns look to improve and attempt to challenge for their first finals series. With more time up forward looking likely, Garry will stand out, as he is able to play anywhere and stand out.

    That is likely all the bets I will be making before the start of the Home and Away season. I may also make some pre-season plays, but they will be kept separate from my overall record. Hopefully 2014 will be a big year to make some big profits

  2. #2
    aussieH
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    Good luck this year.

    Hawks at 5 dollars are not good value.

    Losing franklin is a big loss. Guns ton and rough head will get the best defenders and double teamed. I also think their midfield is ageing with Mitchell, hodge and Sewell all with their best footy in the past.

    Gaining mcevoy and Hartlett will be interesting to follow though

  3. #3
    thecattery12
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    Futures - No score over 200 @ 1.70

    Lock it in Eddie!

  4. #4
    Coopertrooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by aussieH View Post
    Good luck this year.

    Hawks at 5 dollars are not good value.

    Losing franklin is a big loss. Guns ton and rough head will get the best defenders and double teamed. I also think their midfield is ageing with Mitchell, hodge and Sewell all with their best footy in the past.

    Gaining mcevoy and Hartlett will be interesting to follow though
    Thanks mate, hopefully it will be a big year.

    I think Mitchell and Sewell are capable of holding their own, while Hodge barely had an impact last year, so it is very possible he will be able to have more of an output this year. Franklin is always going to hurt, but their stats without him are pretty good. They have found ways to kick a good score without him. Rough/Gunston/Hale has worked well as a tall combo, while a fit Rioli is also an interesting prospect. McEvoy will be very interesting - they needed another ruckman who could free Hale up forward more, but really either could go up there.

    Quote Originally Posted by thecattery12 View Post
    Futures - No score over 200 @ 1.70

    Lock it in Eddie!
    Is that no team to reach a total of 200 throughout the year? The only risk is GWS as they still appear to have a number of problems, but 200 is tough to get near. Most teams put the cue in the rack now once they get 10-12 goals up.

  5. #5
    AussiePunter123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    Thanks mate, hopefully it will be a big year.

    I think Mitchell and Sewell are capable of holding their own, while Hodge barely had an impact last year, so it is very possible he will be able to have more of an output this year. Franklin is always going to hurt, but their stats without him are pretty good. They have found ways to kick a good score without him. Rough/Gunston/Hale has worked well as a tall combo, while a fit Rioli is also an interesting prospect. McEvoy will be very interesting - they needed another ruckman who could free Hale up forward more, but really either could go up there.



    Is that no team to reach a total of 200 throughout the year? The only risk is GWS as they still appear to have a number of problems, but 200 is tough to get near. Most teams put the cue in the rack now once they get 10-12 goals up.
    Hi mate, how many Aus Dollars in a unit for you?

  6. #6
    Coopertrooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by AussiePunter123 View Post

    Hi mate, how many Aus Dollars in a unit for you?
    $100 for me mate.

  7. #7
    AussiePunter123
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    $100 for me mate.
    So your bankroll is just under 20 000 dollars? (Aus)

    Well done. How long did that take to build up from betting?

  8. #8
    Coopertrooper
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    No I use units as 1% and I started it off with a good chunk last year (with $50 units). But it has grown quite nicely in that time

  9. #9
    AussiePunter123
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    How much dollars did you make it profit mate?

    Cheers. PM me if you prefer

  10. #10
    aussieH
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    Brisbane for wooden spooners this year I think. Just saw their best 22 and it is not flash. Apart from a decent midfield that actually put rich on the hbf it was very inexperienced.

  11. #11
    Coopertrooper
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    Roll started at $50 being 1% to now having $100 as 1%, so doubled my roll in about 18 months (Mostly on horse racing with some good quaddies coming off helping). A quarter of that increase came from my last AFL season though, having made 25 units.

    The lions will be an interesting side to watch. I still think GWS will have another year of being a basket case (The impacts of not having a real coach for 2 years will continue to hurt them), so I'm not sure they'll pick up the spoon. They need to find someone to take Brown's spot pronto. But having said that, they showed a really good patch of form, and missed the 8 by a terrible umpiring decision and port falling asleep and letting Carlton storm home. I don't think they're as hopeless as GWS or Melbourne.

  12. #12
    AussiePunter123
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    Sounds good mate. You generally make profit every AFL season?

  13. #13
    Coopertrooper
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    2013 was my first documented season. In 2012 I made roughly 20 units, but was really experimenting there. Hopefully I'll be a bit more settled in my bet types, but I do tend to mix it up (some picks are at good odds, especially the parlay picks).

  14. #14
    Coopertrooper
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    I'm going to do a few NAB Challenge bets, which will not count towards the proper seasons total. This time of year is very tough to predict, with the format for pre-season games changing often and no serious outcomes for winning or losing games. It isn't the time of year to be going in with big bets.


    NAB Play #1 - Geelong 1-39, $2.20 X 0.5 units

    Collingwood have been consistently inconsistent in pre-season matches in their approach, while the cats are striving to keep the winning edge about them. Neither side looks stronger than the other, however the cats may be a little more hungry at this time of year, so a fairly speculative play of 0.5units on the cats to win by 1-39.


    Good luck to those having a go at NAB games, but remember to take it easy

  15. #15
    lordkai35
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    Good luck this season !

  16. #16
    Coopertrooper
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    Thanks lordkai!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    NAB Play #1 - Geelong 1-39, $2.20 X 0.5 units

    Pre-season record: 1-0 +0.6units

    Great game of footy, I thought the quality was really good for a pre-season match. Happy for my side (beside the injure to Freeman and potentially Broomhead) and also happy to cash the first bet of the year. Hopefully it remains a long year in the green!

  17. #17
    johno35
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    Great game last night. I'm loving the new format, gives you a better idea of where the teams fitness. Big score was surprising but then again there are a lot of red time goals due to fatigue, in gonna keep my eye on those totals.

    Good luck this year Cooper, hopefully we both finish in the green again this year!

  18. #18
    Coopertrooper
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    Thanks Johno, can't wait for the real stuff to begin! I was surprised to see us score as well as we did, but the big score against us wasn't too big of a shock when you saw our backline, it had some debutants down there who struggled to hold the likes of Hawkins.

    I've got another small play for tonight's game:


    NAB Play #2 - Hawthorn Half time 13-24, $4.50 X 0.25 units (Luxbet)

    Both sides have put in a number of kids, but a large part of the premiership core for the hawks is still there. Most people (including the books) favour the hawks because of this reason, so the value lies in first half bets. The lions should keep it tight enough early, but by half time the hawks should have a lead. $4.50 for it to be between 13-24 is very good value, so a small play on it.

  19. #19
    dRavidC
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    good luck this season cooper

  20. #20
    Coopertrooper
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    Thanks dRavidC.

    Ordinary match with the lions getting blasted away in the first half. They'd be bitterly disappointed that they won't take as much out of that match as they had hoped. Margin was about 90 points by half time!!!

    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    NAB Play #2 - Hawthorn Half time 13-24, $4.50 X 0.25 units (Luxbet)
    Pre-season: 1-1 +0.35 units

  21. #21
    Coopertrooper
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    NAB Play #3 - Richmond Half Time 13-24, $4.50 X 0.25units (Sportsbet)


    Similar to last night's play. Despite the dees being terrible, the tigers have kept a few in cotton wool, while Melbourne players will want to impress new coach Roos. Good chance they keep it tight early and tire later on here, so another small play.

  22. #22
    Coopertrooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    NAB Play #3 - Richmond Half Time 13-24, $4.50 X 0.25units (Sportsbet)
    Dees tried hard and played better footy for the whole half, yet missed so many easy shots. Yet the tigers still can't get 2 goals up. Frustrating after the tigers were in the range halfway through the quarter.

    Pre-season: 1-2 +0.10 units

  23. #23
    thecattery12
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    Don't mind Melbourne to win over 4 games for the year. They look pretty good out there

  24. #24
    Coopertrooper
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    Quote Originally Posted by thecattery12 View Post
    Don't mind Melbourne to win over 4 games for the year. They look pretty good out there
    Funny what not having a rubbish coach can do. They are holding onto the ball in their defensive half really well. Look a bit lost going forward, but they have their 2 big tall recruits still to come back (although Clark looks like he'll be injured for a while longer yet).

  25. #25
    garygroundwork
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coopertrooper View Post
    I'm back again in 2014 after a reasonable 2013 season, where we made 25.06 units of profit, at an ROI of 12.61%! (2013 thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more-sport...fl-thread.html )


    This year I will look to get off to a much better start. 2013 was my first year posting plays so I played around a bit, finding which bet types did and didn't work, while I also made too many plays early. I don't just play the lines or totals and will also post a number of parlay/multiple bets, so not all of my bets are available worldwide. However, I do try and post a number of plays early in the week and I don't post ridiculously high-risk bets - My usual bet size is 0.5-3.0 units, with the occasional 4 or 5 unit play (I average around 1.25-1.5 units per bet). Big profits are always the main aim, but I believe that it needs to be kept in context of how much is actually being bet to achieve that, so I also keep a Return on Investment figure (Profit/Units risked) as another way of tracking performance throughout the year. I try to provide some analysis where I can, or at least the angle that I have behind a play.

    I will also be making some small changes this year. Last year I posted a few money back specials/bonus bet offers but did not include them in any totals. This year I will trial keeping a record of them (in dollar amounts, as units can vary from person to person) wherever there is a special available (assuming that 1 unit =$100, so a 0.5 unit play where a money back special exists with a limit of $100 will count as $50 in the bonus tally).

    My aim for the year is to try and again hit an ROI of over 10%. With the amount I bet, that will hopefully end with a nice profit like last year, so I will aim for a profit of 20 units.

    Anyway, onto the good stuff. I am starting this thread early as I have had a look at the futures markets and have seen a couple of plays I like:



    Futures Play #1 - Hawthorn to win the premiership, $5.00 X 2 units (Ladbrokes)

    Futures Play #2 - Parlay:
    -Hawthorn Premiers, $5.00
    -Gary Ablett to win the Brownlow, $7.00

    TOTAL: $35.00 X 0.5 units (Ladbrokes)


    Futures Play #3 - Port Adelaide to make top 4, $7.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)


    Hawthorn go into the 2014 season in fantastic shape. Having had the best list over a number of seasons, the hawks finally broke through to win their second premiership in 6 years, which is still seen by many as being an under-achievement for the list they have had. The list is still fantastic, minus only Lance Franklin, so there is no reason why the hawks can't make it 2 in a row. Their main rivals appear to be Fremantle and Sydney. Freo made their first grand final off good form coming into the finals series and have an exciting list, so they are a real chance to go one better in 2014. However, as shown on Grand Final day, they don't appear to quite be able to match it with the hawks, certainly not in 2013. The swans fell short of the grand final, however they acquired Franklin off the hawks to go with Tippett, but did so at the expense of a number of fringe players, while also raising the ire of a number of core players for going against the team ethos of an even spread without the high-paid stars. The swans still look strong, but some players may be found out and their forwardline now looks too top-heavy to me.

    The rest of the competition then appears to fall away a bit. I have Port Adelaide as being a bolter. Their rapid improvement under Ken Hinkley took many by surprise, myself included. The list had already appeared to be building well, but the new input on and off the field (Kochie takes a lot of the off-field credit) sped the process up, with port putting new structures into place to help foster a good young list. The $7 on offer for them to make another step up into the top 4 is very juicy, given some teams appear to be on the way down, so I'm playing 1 unit on it.

    Next there is the cats, who fall into the category just mentioned. Having had a prolonged stay at the top, they have begun their decline. They have lost players over the past few years due to aging, with 2013 seeing the end of Corey, Chapman, J Hunt and Podsiadly, so I can see them falling into the bottom half of the 8. Then there are Collingwood and Richmond. The pies are my side, so I watch them closely and am very happy with what I see. The list is being rejuvenated by club legend Buckley and they are building for the future in very exciting fashion. However, despite many of my fellow fans thinking the pies will be pushing this year, I believe we still have a few issues, particularly down back, which will still need ironing out, so I see us likely being in the bottom half of the 8. The tigers are also an interesting side, who have slowly built themselves back into the finals fold, much to the delight of the tiger army. However, the tigers still have a lot of work to do up forward and are yet to win a final in a long time, so they are not likely to be a major contender.

    North Melbourne and Essendon are other sides also making claims as contenders, however they are likely to only be minor contenders. North have played some good football in recent times, but have a few mental issues. They are unable to win enough games when in a winning position, which is the next step they need to take. The bombers, despite a good list and good football in the first half of 2013, dropped off after the peptide scandal began to bite, with the public and media heavily criticising the bombers. With players still facing the possibility of bans and a stand in coach while Hird is suspended, the bombers are unlikely to overcome the odds and win.

    All factors considered, I see the $5.00 available on the hawks and wonder how they are those odds. I am playing 2 units on them, and also playing half a unit on a double with Ablett to win The Brownlow Medal. Gaz looks like the man to beat for the Brownlow again this year, as the suns look to improve and attempt to challenge for their first finals series. With more time up forward looking likely, Garry will stand out, as he is able to play anywhere and stand out.

    That is likely all the bets I will be making before the start of the Home and Away season. I may also make some pre-season plays, but they will be kept separate from my overall record. Hopefully 2014 will be a big year to make some big profits
    nice report...

    yeah I like Fremantle and hawthorn closely followed by the swans

    mate the guy who deserves the credit at Pt Adelaide is Keith Thomas. He came in turned the club around..got Hinkley got Koshie etc etc

    still will be hard fo them to make top 4 dont see it..but u never know.

    The pies should do well this year..Beams, Toovey back jesse white and cloak up forward.. they will make top 8 surely??

    its hard to take richmond seriously

    i like pendlebury and ablett for brownlow

  26. #26
    Coopertrooper
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    Thanks gary. Port will still have a fair bit of work to do, but we will see how their kids go. Pies and tigers should both be in the top 8 withut much trouble.

    Sticking with the port theme:

    NAB Play #4 - Port Adelaide 1-39, $3.00 X 0.5 units (Luxbet)

    After scorching heat, South Australia has had buckets of rain in recent days. This game is at Richmond Oval, not a regular AFL venue, which has reasonable drainage but is still likely to be affected. Don't expect fast-flowing football, this one should be fairly low-scoring. This brings the 1-39 margins right into play, and I like port to win this one. They are going in with a weaker line-up, which is reflected in the betting, however they still have a strong nucleus and a good group of young talent. My view on the 2 sides is that the crows are looking lacklustre this year, while port are looking to take the next step to becoming a top team. It is only pre-seaon, but these 2 sides always like to get a win over the other. Half a unit here.

  27. #27
    Coopertrooper
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    Port have just pulled Boak, Lobbe and Wingard from their side, they are now seriously under-strength. Above play will be a no-go even at whatever the adjusted odds will be. I'll just have to ride this one out!

  28. #28
    Coopertrooper
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    Also, Luxbet/Bet365 yet to adjust. Both around $1.50/$1.48 on crows to win, sportsbet into $1.35.

    EDIT: Took them another 15 minutes to adjust. Unreal!
    Last edited by Coopertrooper; 02-15-14 at 10:46 PM. Reason: Now adjusted

  29. #29
    Coopertrooper
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    Pre-season record: 1-3 -0.4 units

    Only halftime but the crows are home. Was able to get off by taking the crazy odds Bet365 and Luxbet left up thankfully, hopefully nobody tried tailing here. Couldn't have predicted the big names that were left out at the last minute and the books clearly weren't expecting it and will have been caught napping!

  30. #30
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    NAB Play #5 - Gold Coast 1-20, $3.80 X 0.25 units (Bet365)

    The Gold Coast naming a pretty strong line-up tonight, while the bombers want to try a few kids. I feel that the bombers are going to go into this match with a reasonable intensity level, so it could be fairly tight. The lines posted of around 11.5-13.5 look about right to me, so a small play on the 1-20 market.

  31. #31
    Coopertrooper
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    I really considered backing a draw.... scores even with a minute left. Oh god :|

  32. #32
    Coopertrooper
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    Gary Ablett Phew!!!
    Pre-season record: 2-3 +0.3 units
    Last edited by Coopertrooper; 02-17-14 at 04:50 AM.

  33. #33
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    NAB Play #6 - Freo/West Coast Over 174.5, $1.90 X 0.5 units (Bet365)

    With Butler and Schofield late outs for the eagles, the dockers shouldn't have much trouble scoring. Both the over and Freo Team Total over are good plays here. It should be fairly warm, so we could see teams tiring with scoring opening up late.

  34. #34
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    NAB Play #7 - Fremantle 1-39, $2.20 X 0.5 units (Luxbet)

    Another play on this game. As mentioned above, the eagles are without a couple of key defenders, so the dockers should be able to do enough here. If the game is low-scoring it may hurt the first bet, but could help this one. I expect a scoreline which will read something like 100-85 or so.

    Total outlay of 1 unit for this match (which is fairly large for a pre-season match!), hopefully it works out! Good luck to everyone playing tonight

  35. #35
    shhplit
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    How confident are you on the h2h? found some recent info here...

    WEST Coast has named a strong squad to take on cross-town rivals Fremantle in their NAB Challenge clash on Tuesday.

    Veterans Dean Cox, Darren Glass and Matt Priddis have all been selected, as have gun forwards Josh Kennedy, Jack Darling and Mark LeCras.

    New Eagles Dom Sheed, Elliott Yeo and Xavier Ellis will all have a chance to put their name in front of selectors while emerging midfielders Chris Masten, Scott Selwood and Luke Shuey will have their first hit-out of 2014.

    Only Beau Waters (shoulder), Andrew Gaff (illness) and Nic Naitanui (groin) are missing from the Eagles’ likely best 22.

    Fremantle will unveil new recruits Colin Sylvia and Scott Gumbleton in the match, with only six players missing from Fremantle’s recent Grand Final side.

    No.17 draft pick Josh Simpson will run out for Freo for the first time.

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