I'm back again in 2014 after a reasonable 2013 season, where we made 25.06 units of profit, at an ROI of 12.61%! (2013 thread:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/more-sport...fl-thread.html )
This year I will look to get off to a much better start. 2013 was my first year posting plays so I played around a bit, finding which bet types did and didn't work, while I also made too many plays early. I don't just play the lines or totals and will also post a number of parlay/multiple bets, so not all of my bets are available worldwide. However, I do try and post a number of plays early in the week and I don't post ridiculously high-risk bets - My usual bet size is 0.5-3.0 units, with the occasional 4 or 5 unit play (I average around 1.25-1.5 units per bet). Big profits are always the main aim, but I believe that it needs to be kept in context of how much is actually being bet to achieve that, so I also keep a Return on Investment figure (Profit/Units risked) as another way of tracking performance throughout the year. I try to provide some analysis where I can, or at least the angle that I have behind a play.
I will also be making some small changes this year. Last year I posted a few money back specials/bonus bet offers but did not include them in any totals. This year I will trial keeping a record of them (in dollar amounts, as units can vary from person to person) wherever there is a special available (assuming that 1 unit =$100, so a 0.5 unit play where a money back special exists with a limit of $100 will count as $50 in the bonus tally).
My aim for the year is to try and again hit an ROI of over 10%. With the amount I bet, that will hopefully end with a nice profit like last year, so I will aim for a profit of 20 units.
Anyway, onto the good stuff. I am starting this thread early as I have had a look at the futures markets and have seen a couple of plays I like:
Futures Play #1 - Hawthorn to win the premiership, $5.00 X 2 units (Ladbrokes)
Futures Play #2 - Parlay:
-Hawthorn Premiers, $5.00
-Gary Ablett to win the Brownlow, $7.00
TOTAL: $35.00 X 0.5 units (Ladbrokes)
Futures Play #3 - Port Adelaide to make top 4, $7.00 X 1 unit (Sportsbet)
Hawthorn go into the 2014 season in fantastic shape. Having had the best list over a number of seasons, the hawks finally broke through to win their second premiership in 6 years, which is still seen by many as being an under-achievement for the list they have had. The list is still fantastic, minus only Lance Franklin, so there is no reason why the hawks can't make it 2 in a row. Their main rivals appear to be Fremantle and Sydney. Freo made their first grand final off good form coming into the finals series and have an exciting list, so they are a real chance to go one better in 2014. However, as shown on Grand Final day, they don't appear to quite be able to match it with the hawks, certainly not in 2013. The swans fell short of the grand final, however they acquired Franklin off the hawks to go with Tippett, but did so at the expense of a number of fringe players, while also raising the ire of a number of core players for going against the team ethos of an even spread without the high-paid stars. The swans still look strong, but some players may be found out and their forwardline now looks too top-heavy to me.
The rest of the competition then appears to fall away a bit. I have Port Adelaide as being a bolter. Their rapid improvement under Ken Hinkley took many by surprise, myself included. The list had already appeared to be building well, but the new input on and off the field (Kochie takes a lot of the off-field credit) sped the process up, with port putting new structures into place to help foster a good young list. The $7 on offer for them to make another step up into the top 4 is very juicy, given some teams appear to be on the way down, so I'm playing 1 unit on it.
Next there is the cats, who fall into the category just mentioned. Having had a prolonged stay at the top, they have begun their decline. They have lost players over the past few years due to aging, with 2013 seeing the end of Corey, Chapman, J Hunt and Podsiadly, so I can see them falling into the bottom half of the 8. Then there are Collingwood and Richmond. The pies are my side, so I watch them closely and am very happy with what I see. The list is being rejuvenated by club legend Buckley and they are building for the future in very exciting fashion. However, despite many of my fellow fans thinking the pies will be pushing this year, I believe we still have a few issues, particularly down back, which will still need ironing out, so I see us likely being in the bottom half of the 8. The tigers are also an interesting side, who have slowly built themselves back into the finals fold, much to the delight of the tiger army. However, the tigers still have a lot of work to do up forward and are yet to win a final in a long time, so they are not likely to be a major contender.
North Melbourne and Essendon are other sides also making claims as contenders, however they are likely to only be minor contenders. North have played some good football in recent times, but have a few mental issues. They are unable to win enough games when in a winning position, which is the next step they need to take. The bombers, despite a good list and good football in the first half of 2013, dropped off after the peptide scandal began to bite, with the public and media heavily criticising the bombers. With players still facing the possibility of bans and a stand in coach while Hird is suspended, the bombers are unlikely to overcome the odds and win.
All factors considered, I see the $5.00 available on the hawks and wonder how they are those odds. I am playing 2 units on them, and also playing half a unit on a double with Ablett to win The Brownlow Medal. Gaz looks like the man to beat for the Brownlow again this year, as the suns look to improve and attempt to challenge for their first finals series. With more time up forward looking likely, Garry will stand out, as he is able to play anywhere and stand out.
That is likely all the bets I will be making before the start of the Home and Away season. I may also make some pre-season plays, but they will be kept separate from my overall record. Hopefully 2014 will be a big year to make some big profits