[hedgejob]

Any books have odds for first AFL coach to be sacked? Hardwick is finished.

[sando]

Sportsbet is usually the best bet with those exotic type markets mate. I agree with you 100% on Hardwick. List is very poor, and it's 100% his list. No excuses...

Any books have odds for first AFL coach to be sacked? Hardwick is finished.

Up and down so far this weekend. Doing well in NRL, but poorly in AFL.

Adding...

AFL

Brisbane v Sydney
1.5* Sydney -34.5

[sando]

Lions have been good both starts this year at the Gabba, but the Swans remain the most undervalued team in the competition (by both the books & the experts) and have dominated Brisbane for 5 years with an average winning margin of 47.5 points, and it's actually worse at the Gabba where the Swans have won the last 4 by 51. Brisbane with some key outs won't help their defence against the Swans very potent forward line, and the wet weather will only help the Swans who are the best contested team in the league whereas the Lions are the worst.

[sando]

Love Miami's series price ($2.40/+140) playing the Heat for 2 units at the series price and will probably get stuck into them for game 1 as well

[sando]

Well it was a decent w/e in NRL, which is getting stronger every week, but I got massacred in footy, after opening the season with 5 straight winning weeks, so that really really sucked. I think I got a bit cute with some of my plays, so will be going back to basics this weekend coming...

NRL 6-6 +2.45 units

AFL 2-8 -10.35 units


NRL 2016 34-33 +3.4 units

AFL 2016 24-23 +7.2 units

MMA 2016 8-3 +5.4 units

[sando]

I like Cav's/Hawks 1st half under 96.5 for game 2 today
I really like Spurs -1.5 for game 3 tomorrow

[sando]

NRL (Representative Round)

City v Country
2* Over 42 (Sportsbet)
1* Country -6 (Grab it now, will shorten to -6.5 by game time & 6 is THE key number in rugby league)

City have a bunch of creative and dynamic forwards (Peachy, Cartwright, Sironen), but Country's forwards are stocked with beasts (Vaughn, Boyd, Frizel, Mclean & Sims - large and aggressive humans) and some genuine class in Cordner. Huge and intimidating forward pack. Easy meters straight up the guts to give club level team mates (cohesion) Maloney & Bird plenty of time to create try scoring opportunities. Country with an advantage in both the forwards & the halves, with the back lines being fairly even. Country have a game breaker in Wighton & a high class winger in Linnett, but City have 2 potential game breakers in mini beast Mansour & red hot Gutherson. Weather in Tamworth will be good & last two years have averaged 55 points per game. This game has a high level of attack with only maybe 80% defensive intensity (based on club levels), which thereby lends itself to the over, especially at the more than generous O/U of 42 offered by Sportsbet (yes 42.5 is ok if that's what you can get - play for 1 or 1.5 units).

Junior Kangaroos v Junior Kiwis
1* Junior Kiwis +14.5
Line is too big. Should be max AUS -10.5 in my humble opinion. The teams are so much closer talent wise than they used to be. Last 2 games have been decided by 2 & 1 points respectively. Even in 2013 when the junior Kangaroos were stacked with talent and superior team on paper they only won by 12.

[f1ori5]

NRL (Representative Round)

City v Country
2* Over 42 (Sportsbet)
1* Country -6 (Grab it now, will shorten to -6.5 by game time & 6 is THE key number in rugby league)

City have a bunch of creative and dynamic forwards (Peachy, Cartwright, Sironen), but Country's forwards are stocked with beasts (Vaughn, Boyd, Frizel, Mclean & Sims - large and aggressive humans) and some genuine class in Cordner. Huge and intimidating forward pack. Easy meters straight up the guts to give club level team mates (cohesion) Maloney & Bird plenty of time to create try scoring opportunities. Country with an advantage in both the forwards & the halves, with the back lines being fairly even. Country have a game breaker in Wighton & a high class winger in Linnett, but City have 2 potential game breakers in mini beast Mansour & red hot Gutherson. Weather in Tamworth will be good & last two years have averaged 55 points per game. This game has a high level of attack with only maybe 80% defensive intensity (based on club levels), which thereby lends itself to the over, especially at the more than generous O/U of 42 offered by Sportsbet (yes 42.5 is ok if that's what you can get - play for 1 or 1.5 units).

Junior Kangaroos v Junior Kiwis
1* Junior Kiwis +14.5
Line is too big. Should be max AUS -10.5 in my humble opinion. The teams are so much closer talent wise than they used to be. Last 2 games have been decided by 2 & 1 points respectively. Even in 2013 when the junior Kangaroos were stacked with talent and superior team on paper they only won by 12.

Is it woth taking a larger unit on over 40.5 at the City game?

[sando]

AFL

Richmond v Hawthorn
1.5* Hawthorn 1st Q -7.5 (William Hill)

Geelong v West Coast
1* Geelong v West Coast Under 183.5 (Sportsbet)
Will probably add a unit on Geelong ATS

Sydney v Essendon
1* Sydney 1st Q -16.5 (Sportsbet/W. Hill)
2* Sydney 1st Half -33.5 (Sportsbet)
1* Lance Franklin most goals ($1.80 William Hill - risk 1.25 to win 1)
Perfect weather should mean lots of goals. Buddy in great form, 2nd in the Coleman race, very consistent this season with only 1 game less than 4 goals, loves playing Essendon - more dominant against the Don's than any other team & this is a weaker than usual version of the Don's. Inside 50's targeting Buddy at nearly 37% this season, that's a very high % & means the Swans are very Buddy focused. If I was more into prop bets I would hammer this play! Should kick a genuine bag...

Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
1* Western Bulldogs 1-39 ($2.40 Everywhere)

**More plays to follow...

***Also playing San Antonio -2 for at least 2 units (probably more) tomorrow & very keen on Saul "Canello" Alvarez to win via KO in huge fight with Amir Khan on Sunday (Boxing).

[sando]

Is it woth taking a larger unit on over 40.5 at the City game?

Sure, that's a great line -40.5, but no more than 2.5x mate

[ronpaul2o12]

Nothing on the ANZAC test?

[hedgejob]

Buddy to outscore Essendon @ 5

[f1ori5]

Sure, that's a great line -40.5, but no more than 2.5x mate

Thanks man. Let s have a good weekend. This week has been rough for many of us. BOL

[sando]

I've managed to handicap myself out of playing SA today, one of those games where the more you look into it the more variables appear & now I am confused so will probably stay away (although lean over).

Am playing Atlanta 1st Q ML ($2.00/+100)

[sando]

NRL Rep round

2* Samoa -4

AFL

2* Geelong -11.5 (Sportsbet)

1* Gold Coast v Melbourne Over 192.5 (Luxbet)

[BigNik]

Western Bulldogs look like a different team since qtr time.

[sando]

Western Bulldogs look like a different team since qtr time.

Unfortunately haven't been able to watch it because watching Samoa v Tonga - what a match! So exciting, hope the Bulldogs can hold on for the win mate...

[hedgejob]

Hard not to like the way Doggies play...and they not at full strength.

[sando]

BOXING

Haven't posted any boxing plays in a long time, mostly because today's boxing is shit, compared to the golden era of the 80's & 90's. I actually started sports betting on boxing, as I used to just throw all my pay checks on a young Tyson to win every fight, as a teenager I though he was invincible, and then along came Buster Douglas...

Anyway Canelo is one of the few good things happening in boxing these days, in a UFC dominated fight game. I wanted to play Canelo via KO, but you can't get much better than $1.50/-200 which are pretty shit odds, so instead going to have a crack at the under 9.5 ($1.80/-125). Khan going up to middle weight is like McGregor going up to welterweight, it's probably just reaching a tad too far. Especially as Canelo is a beast of a middleweight, with a win to KO ratio of 69.6% !! Serious power and great combos. Khan strength is his Roy Jones Jr esque speed, but Canelo has a proven chin and should be able to walk through his punches easily enough, not that Khan (who is a smart fighter) will likely stand and trade with Canelo. Also Khan has been KO'd twice before and there have always been questions about his chin. Canelo is definitely the man to test it.

1.5* Under 9.5 ($1.80/-125 William Hill)

Also 1* Alvarez/Gomez ML Parlay ($1.80). Gomez is an undefeated rising young star. Love the way the "Pitbull" fights. Fight starts in about 10 minutes (Gomez v Herrera) so better be fast if you want to tail parlay...

[sando]

1.5* Under 9.5 ($1.80/-125 William Hill)

Also 1* Alvarez/Gomez ML Parlay ($1.80) .

Cash both. Easy wins.

Solid w/e so far. Up and down in AFL, however 2-0 so far in NRL with 2 plays pending today...

[sando]

Last play for the w/e

AFL

North Melbourne v St Kilda
1.5* Over 201.5 (Luxbet)

If you take away both teams low scoring games against the defensive juggernaut Western Bulldogs & the stats trend fiercely towards the over in this one. The other 4 games played at Etihad by both teams have gone comfortably over 200. The Roos are the highest scoring team in the comp and no reason to think the Saints wont engage them in run n' gun footy, especially after the last couple of games against similar teams to North in GWS & Melbourne. (play on fast up the middle, take the advantage always, etc)

[sando]

A solid if not spectacular weekend. No complaints.

NRL 3-1 +3.9 units

AFL 4-5 -2.3 units

Boxing 2-0 +2.5 units


NRL 2016 37-34 +7.3 units

AFL 2016 28-28 +4.9 units

MMA/Boxing 2016 10-3 +7.9 units

[16johnnymac]

Will u have a play for rugby St gorge match at 250am pacific

[BigNik]

Hey sando. Looking forward to a big weekend of footy. Any value in the bunnies tonight. Eels with no Peats, no Foran and no Mannah

[sando]

AFL

Adelaide v Geelong
2* Adelaide ML ($2.09 Pinnacle)
Adelaide rated approx $1.75 favourites in this. Odds are great. Adelaide are beasts at home & their forward line is capable of shredding the Cats experienced & multi skilled defensive line. Cats are slightly overrated here.

Carlton v Port
2* Port -11.5 (Luxbet)
Port's win last week said a lot more about how they are going than Carlton's 3rd easy win in a row did for them. Port looking decent to good for the 1st time this season. playing with some grunt for a change. Port easily 3-4 goals better team, despite Carlton's solid recent form.

Brisbane v Collingwood
(Waited too long for this one. Was going to hammer Brisbane ML for 3 units at evens)
2.5* Brisbane -8.5 (Sportsbet)
Brisbane's midfield top 6 players are arguably the 2nd best top 6 in the league (behind the Swans) with Zorko, Beams, Christensen, Rich, Rockliff & Hanley, a fantastic young core. Certainly better than the pies top 6, (of whom Beams was formerly #1) who only currently have Pendlebury, Sidebottom & Treloar available. Anyway the Pies have been crushed by 60+ in both matches away from the 'G this year, and the Lions have been great at home, beat GC, and narrow losses to big guns North & Sydney. Sydney weren't even that bad when they only just escaped with a 3 point win, it's just that the Lions are a totally different team at home. It's almost West Coast like - the differential between home & away form for Brisbane.

Tigers v Swans
1.5* Swans -22.5
0.5* Swans 40+ ($3.00 Ladbrokes)
Sydney remain arguably the most undervalued team in the league, whilst the Tigers are getting way too much credit for 2 strong quarters against the Hawks. Tigers are 0-7 ATS this season! Swans are 5-2.


More plays to follow...

[sando]

Hey sando. Looking forward to a big weekend of footy. Any value in the bunnies tonight. Eels with no Peats, no Foran and no Mannah

Me too mate. Geez Eels game is a tough one to pick, so many variables in play. Mannah is irrelevant, with the class, size & depth the Eels have in the forwards, however Peats & Foran are of course big outs. My instincts having me leaning towards Parra, expecting them to be emotionally charged up & so thankful to finally get back out on the footy field & try & put this b/s behind them. Potentially I think either the Eels could go off for a big win here. Tough game to handicap!

[garygroundwork]

Sando what are ur thoughts on the GSW v Thunder series?

Also ur thoughts on ST George Dragons who keep fkn winning...looks like they are gona make the top 8...how is this possible?

[BigNik]

No idea how adelaide is not loosing by 50. Lucky for us feeling can't kick straight tonight

[unitedlad]

Hey Sando. You any thoughts on the NBA tonight? I'm going to take Miami ML but thinking it may be better waiting for a better price in play.

[Don_Omarion]

Sando , are the refs of TOR/MIA game tonight knows for overs or Unders ?? Iam leaning Under 191,5 here

[sando]

Sorry for not getting back to you lads, had to work all night.

Sando what are ur thoughts on the GSW v Thunder series?

Also ur thoughts on ST George Dragons who keep fkn winning...looks like they are gona make the top 8...how is this possible?

I think OKC will provide a better match up because they can run with the Warriors and compete athletically, an area in which was sorely lacking for the Spurs. However I think less than 20% chance they can win the series mate. Warriors far more likely to win a game in OKC than lose one at home. Also as with almost every other team, there is simply no-one who can guard Curry, certainly not Westbrook or Waiters, so he should pretty much do as he pleases, whereas I like the defensive options the dubs can throw at OKC to at least slow down Durant (Green, Iggy, maybe Barnes) & Westbrook.

Don't worry about the Dragons mate, less than 10% chance they make the top 8. Raiders, Panthers, Warriors, Sea Eagles & the Rabbitohs are all arguably better teams and those teams are fighting for the final two spots (not withstanding a miraculous charge up the ladder from the Roosters or Eels). Dragons don't impress me at all, slightly overrated.

[sando]

NRL

Storm v Cowboys
2* Cowboys -6.5
Yes I have been too harsh on the Storm this season, who just keep winning when they probably shouldn't in classic Bellamy style, anyway I have adjusted my expectations of the Storm accordingly. Regardless the full strength Cowboys in QLD are a whole different level. Line handicapped at -8.5, and would still nibble at that. Storm's stifling tactics shouldn't work against the overwhelming Cowboys offence. Left side, right side, straight up the guts, tell me where they are not a try scoring threat inside the red zone? Storm still missing Origin level backline stars in Slater & Chambers. Cowboys have covered 7 in a row ATS!

[sando]

NRL

Brisbane v Manly
1* Brisbane 1-12 ($3.50 Sportsbet)
Risky play backing against Brisbane at home, however line is simply too big at 14.5, Manly are better than they are being given credit for and Brisbane do have a couple of key outs. Also Manly have a solid defensive line that is a tad underrated. If you want something less risky take Manly +14.5 for a unit.

[sando]

Man was going to play the over 42 in Warriors v Panthers, then the total moved to 42.5 so I left it. 32 minutes in and 32 points on the board. Sigh...

[garygroundwork]

Sorry for not getting back to you lads, had to work all night.

I think OKC will provide a better match up because they can run with the Warriors and compete athletically, an area in which was sorely lacking for the Spurs. However I think less than 20% chance they can win the series mate. Warriors far more likely to win a game in OKC than lose one at home. Also as with almost every other team, there is simply no-one who can guard Curry, certainly not Westbrook or Waiters, so he should pretty much do as he pleases, whereas I like the defensive options the dubs can throw at OKC to at least slow down Durant (Green, Iggy, maybe Barnes) & Westbrook.

Don't worry about the Dragons mate, less than 10% chance they make the top 8. Raiders, Panthers, Warriors, Sea Eagles & the Rabbitohs are all arguably better teams and those teams are fighting for the final two spots (not withstanding a miraculous charge up the ladder from the Roosters or Eels). Dragons don't impress me at all, slightly overrated.

cheers buddy