[docwatson]

First the Total's:


Over 56 Races posted at SBR. Winning tickets in 33 (58.9%) of them.


Exacta $2,736 In $4,116.30 Out +$1380.30 Profit ROI = +50.4%


Trifecta $5,238 In $10,051.62 Out +$4,813.62 Profit ROI = +91.8%


Make no mistake there are ebbs and flows to horse racing. Whether its a track bias that isn't accounted for, or its just a day that the favorites seem to get us right at the wire on every race to cut into the profits. It's important to not wager more than 4% (3% if you can) of your bank on each race.


If you scroll to row 770 you'll see that my top 5 (Column "F") win at a 66.9% clip with place horse getting there 67% of the time. This hit rate is why I structure tickets the way I do. I have no fear of gamblers ruin, but that doesn't mean it can't happen. Good record keeping over the years has helped me weather the losing streaks, and point out weak and strong points in my handicapping. As you can see I keep track of all my races, and it's all right there for all to see.


On to the First Saturday of September


I don't know if I'm really seeing it well today or not. Fact of the matter is after scouring the PP's I found only FOUR races that I felt offered value. That's abnormal for me on a summer Saturday, but IIWII. The value race of the day is the Grade 3 Glens Falls at Saratoga (scene of the crime last week). A very wide open race #11 on the grass there. The race prior to that the historic Grade 1 Woodward has number one rated Horse Frosted as my A ranked going. I'm passing on that race since he is the 1/2 morning line favorite. Even though he has some very formidable foes going after and have beat him before. He is running at the top of his game now though. I have two races at Del Mar and one more at Monmouth.


NOTE: Don't bet too early as I will drop a race from the list if the right scratches are made, or if the track conditions change.


At the bottom of the sheet I have wagering bundles, and instruction tabs (3 tabs total). I've tried to come up with the best way to structure tickets for all budgets. I encourage everyone to read this as it explains how the Index works, and the bettor can get the best use out of it.


Play within your means.


URL: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1929474103


May The Winners Be Yours!!!!


Doc

[docwatson]

Monmouth Race 8 was sexy considering the favorite won which was my C-Ranked horse. The good news is my A-Ranked 23/1 ran 2nd while the 18/1 #11 horse was there for the trifecta. Exacta was 107.20 X two, and the trifecta paid a nice $298.70 for fitty cent. Three more to go, but that one basically covers the day.

Monmouth Park - Race 8 # Win Place Show 1 $4.80 $3.40 $3.20 9 . $15.20 $9.80 11 . . $7.40

Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | ALL Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid $1.00 Exacta 1/9 $53.60 $0.50 Trifecta 1/9/11 $298.70 $0.10 Superfecta 1/9/11/8 $401.43 $1.00 Double 6/1 $10.20 $0.50 Pick-3 7/6/1 3 of 3 $23.05

[docwatson]

Cashed in the Glens Falls as the C Ranked win dragging the E Ranked across for the $$76.50 exacta. The B Ranked 10/1 choice gets up for the trifecta cash of $162.25. One more to go later at Del Mar.

Saratoga - Race 11 # Win Place Show 6 $7.80 $4.60 $3.50 5 . $8.70 $7.00 1 . . $7.30

Results: 01 | 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | 07 | 08 | 09 | 10 | 11 | ALL Wager Type Winning Numbers Paid $1.00 Exacta 6/5 $38.25 $0.50 Trifecta 6/5/1 $162.25

[BetweenHerCheeks]

Missed the Monmouth - FUUCK ME - was on the other two - loading up for the last one at del mar. thanks doc

[BetweenHerCheeks]

DOC - Race 10 Del Mar

#14 horse LATE SCRATCH

[docwatson]

DOC - Race 10 Del Mar

#14 horse LATE SCRATCH

Adjustments just posted. Hate that you missed Monmouth, but really hate I didn't play the Woodward. However I stuck to the plan when "seeing" the race with a legitimate favorite.

Doc

[trytrytry]

u covered 90% of the field in race 10 delmar and missed 1st and 2nd .. minor disaster there

that it for today

[docwatson]

Totals for the Day:

Exacta $192 In & $290.90 Out Profit of $98.90 ROI of +51.5%

Trifecta $360 In & $460.95 Out Profit of $100.95 ROI of +28.0%

Sorry I didn't make more money for you guys.

Doc

[trytrytry]

did the picks E F G H change for the del mar race in any way? the 14 was never part of the picks or sheet was he?

[CanuckG]

Last week of the Spa coming up. Fire away.

[BetweenHerCheeks]

did the picks E F G H change for the del mar race in any way? the 14 was never part of the picks or sheet was he?

14 WAS part of the initial picks but changed as a late scratch

[BetweenHerCheeks]

doc another good day...excited for tomorrow

[trytrytry]

14 WAS part of the initial picks but changed as a late scratch

ok i just looked at what you posted in my football thread and there was no 14 and that was early, hours before the race and no 14 was used, so that was not a late scratch was it?

but I knew you were following along. I played that race 10 correctly. just did not hit that one. ok thanks cheeks.

[tlafer]

I just posted this in the players talk forum, wanted to post it here also.
Hey Doc I was just looking at the Saratoga 11th race onAugust 27, where on your spreadsheet you show you hit the superfecta. Looks tome like you didn't actually. The horses came in 1-2-14-9, which were yourD-A-E-C horses. Your wagering bundles only show one superfecta play, in number4. And it shows A for the first slot, and B-C-D for the second slot. It came inthe other way around. Aren't you making a mistake there? On the other hand, Ithink you shorted yourself on how many times you hit the trifecta in the same race. I think youhit it twice for 50 cents in bundle 3, and once for $2 in bundle 4. So I thinkyou got back $3042 rather than $1014 on the tri’s.

[Jayvegas420]

Holy shit im confused.
Which super at saratoga paid $35,000.00?

[tlafer]

Huh? The super at Saratoga on August 27 in the 11th race paid $20,912 for $2, so it paid $10,456 for $1, which is what Doc shows on his spreadsheet. The point is, he didn't actually hit it.

[tlafer]

Doc isn't tracking the Super's in his threads, so there is no problem with his records as shown in his threads that I am aware of. In fact, as I pointed out earlier, looks to me like he should have a bigger hit showing in the trifecta column on the race, $3042 rather than $1014.