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BC Dirt Mile
Dirt Mile
Liam’s Map - Win last time out in G1-Woodward was a great run and should put him on top of the short list. His only loss this year was to a horse named Honor Code who will make my top four in the Classic. In the last four years the winner of the Dirt Mile exceeded our race par in their previous race, and Liam’s Map and Wicked Strong were the only two who meet this criteria.
Red Vine - I always like horses that are coming off a loss that ran a race that could win here, which is exactly the case in Red Vines last out in the Kelso Handicap. He finished second after getting squeezed out and stumbling, a clean run here and he is in the mix.
Valid- The outside post is going to hurt this horse, but if he can rate off the pace that Mr. Z is likely to set he will get the first shot at taking him down and any other horse is likely going to have to pass him around the turn. I am really looking to see how the track is playing in the earlier races here to see if Valid makes my ticket, but if speed is holding this is a must play at 10-1 ML. Valid has the top HBD E1/E2 value meaning he should have the ability to hold if they can set anything close to a soft pace.
Wicked Strong - I am a little concerned about the drop in distance here, his last try at a mile in the Forbidden Apple Stakes he was moving really well late and just needed more time to get there. I don’t like this horse at a mile, but he is too talented to ignore in this field.
**War Envoy - I don’t think that War Envoy has a shot to win this race, but he will be one the back end of ALL of my exotic bets. A 71.7 HBD Late Pace Figure is huge in this field, the next closest is War Story who has a 10.2 figure. It won’t matter what the pace is, this is a horse that should be making up ground on the field exciting the turn, and could easily grab some of the backend of the exotics.
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Originally Posted by BGboothA
