[BGboothA]

Its never too early now that we pretty much know who will make up the 20 or so horses that will make the 'field'. We have a bunch of stuff in the works that I will post on here. Some it you all have seen from me before, but I figure I will put it here in one place for you all.

[BGboothA]

First things first...

Here is the current Brisnet Ultimate PP's with Comments for the field in order of total Prep Season Points.

KYDerby15_PP

[BGboothA]

It didn't copy well, but here is our first installment

Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent negative trends.

*This information is adapted from Jon White’s Kentucky Derby Strike System. A system that Jon White uses to find horses that are less likely to win the Kentucky Derby.

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Summary

Since 1973, 35 of 41 (85%) Kentucky Derby winners have had zero or one strike against them using this system. Five winners over the same time period have had 2 strikes. Only one horse, Mine that Bird has won with more than 2 strikes.

Zero Strikes	1 Strike	2 Strikes
International Star	American Pharaoh	Materiality
Dortmund	Carpe Diem
Frosted	Firing Line
Mubtaahij	One Lucky Dane
El Kabeir	Ocho Ocho Ocho
Far Right
Upstart

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

	Dating back to 1962 no horse that has finished worse than 4th in its final prep race has won the Kentucky Derby. Only three horses have won the Kentucky Derby after finishing 4th in the same time period.
	This is a strike against: Itsaknockout Mr. Z
	Since 1882 no horse has won the Kentucky Derby without racing at age 2. Since 2000, no horse has won the derby without winning at the age of 2.
	This is a strike against: Materiality Danzig Moon Tencendur
	Forty-six of the last 48 Kentucky Derby winners were first or second with a Furlong remaining in the Kentucky Derby; the only two exceptions were Grindstone in 1996, Giacomo in 2005. In a field of 20 you have to be close to the lead come the final furlong. Eliminate any horse that wasn’t in 1st or 2nd with a furlong to go in both their last starts.
	This is a strike against: Itsaknockout Mr. Z
	Only three horses have won the derby since 1973 who hadn’t won a graded stakes race prior.
	This is a strike against: Itsaknockout Danzig Moon War Story Tencendur OneLuckyDane Stanford Mr. Z Bolo
	Only six horses have won the derby who have ran less than six total starts before entering the Kentucky Derby.
	This is a strike against: Carpe Diem American Pharaoh Materiality Mr. Z Tencendur Bolo Itsaknockout Firing Line Danzig Moon War Story Ocho Ocho Ocho
	Only two geldings have won the Kentucky Derby since 1930.
	This is a strike against: War Story
The Positives From the Negatives If history is to hold true, then the winner of the 2015 Kentucky Derby could come from this list of twelve horses. Since 1973, 35 of the 41 Kentucky Derby winners have had either zero strikes or one strike, while five winners had two strikes. Of the last 41 Kentucky Derby winners, the only one to have more than two strikes was Mine That Bird, who had four.
	There are only seven horses that remain in the field that did not receive any strikes:
	International Star Dortmund Frosted Mubtaahij El Kabeir Far Right Upstart
	While five horses made it through while only receiving one strike:
	American Pharaoh Carpe Diem Firing Line One Lucky Dane Ocho Ocho Ocho

And finally one one horse made it through with two strikes:

• Materiality

[Heppy10]

going to take a look and post my early thoughts

[BGboothA]

going to take a look and post my early thoughts

Look forward to hearing them. Still alot to happen, waiting on a few jockey decisions to be made public. Plus there are a couple that haven't confirmed they are running that could change the bottom part of things. For instance Keen Ice who is 22 on the leaderboard could put together a Commanding Curve type run and may be worth some consideration.

Plus post draw will effect the pace schedule that right now looks quick to say the least.

[homerbush]

My early thoughts are I like upstart and Materiality (even with the strikes). Pp draw Important but expect these guys to be wheeled and keyed all over my exotics.

[Madison]

So you know I know nothing but given Carpe Diems penchant for better front speed recently doesn't his 2nd to Texas Red from the moon look better and better??

[BGboothA]

So you know I know nothing but given Carpe Diems penchant for better front speed recently doesn't his 2nd to Texas Red from the moon look better and better??

A little bit, but there was a lot of horsees moving backward rather than Carpe Diem moving forward in the last 1/8th of that one as well. They ran a 45.3 half in that race! Thats insane even for SA!

If you watch the reply, Carpe Diem doesn't really catch anyone other than Upstart and even he was shortening up pretty good. Another way to look at it is to look at who had the lead hitting the turn...Blue Dancer, Private Prospect and DarDevil...all of whom finished in the last four.

Watching that pack hit the middle of the stretch, they nearly stopped.

[Madison]

A little bit, but there was a lot of horsees moving backward rather than Carpe Diem moving forward in the last 1/8th of that one as well. They ran a 45.3 half in that race! Thats insane even for SA!

If you watch the reply, Carpe Diem doesn't really catch anyone other than Upstart and even he was shortening up pretty good. Another way to look at it is to look at who had the lead hitting the turn...Blue Dancer, Private Prospect and DarDevil...all of whom finished in the last four.

Watching that pack hit the middle of the stretch, they nearly stopped.

Your time and input is always greatly appreciated. Thank you again and good luck!

[Heppy10]

My top fav's
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
American Pharoah
Firing Line


Exotics for value
International star
Mubtaaij ? Not sure what odds you will get
War Story
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Bolo
Keen Ice
Metaboss
Cross the line

Not really narrowing it down lol, need to wait for the odds and post positions

[BGboothA]

So a few years ago a guy that went by MoneyLineExpress posted on SBR and had great stuff. This is my adaptation from his stuff that was amazing. But I haven't seen him around so I put together the info the last two years.

And again it doesn't copy well from my blog, but it works.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Handicapping 3-year old horses is never easy, and handicapping a field of 20 3-year old horses is even harder. But since the Derby first ran in 1875 we have an amazing amount of history to look back upon and help us out. Let’s take a look at some of the more consistent positive trends.

Summary
The winner of the Kentucky Derby has consistently had four or five points. Last year’s winner California Chrome had a score of 4 while the previous years winner Orb had a perfect score of five. In fact 4 of the past 5 Derby winners had a score of 5 using this criteria.

Five Points	Four Points
International Star	El Kabeir
Dortmund	Far Right
Frosted	Firing Line
Mubtaahij	Tencendur
Carpe Diem
American Pharaoh

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


The positive trend data is going to work much like the negative trend data, there are a total of five positive trend data points that we are going to look at, each time a horse qualifies under the positive criteria they receive a point.

	Give a point to any horse that won a mile or longer race as a 2 year old.
	International Star Dortmund Carpe Diem American Pharaoh Frosted Materiality Upstart Far Right Firing Line Tencendur Mubtaahij
	Next is to give a point to any horse which ran one of its best 2 speed figures in its last race.
	International Star Dortmund Carpe Diem American Pharaoh Frosted Materiality Mubtaahij El Kabeir Far Right Firing Line Danzig Moon War Story Tencendur One Lucky Dane Stanford
	Give points to horses which raced against graded stakes competition prior to March 15th, as a 3 year old.
	International Star Dortmund Carpe Diem American Pharaoh Frosted Mubtaahij MR. Z Ocho Ocho Ocho El Kabeir Far Right Firing Line War Story Bolo Tencendur One Lucky Dane Stanford
	Give a point to a horse that has won a graded stakes race.
	International Star Dortmund Carpe Diem American Pharaoh Frosted Mubtaahij El Kabeir Far Right Firing Line Upstart Ocho Ocho Ocho Materiality
	The horse’s finish position in both of his or her last two races before the Derby was no worse than his or her running position at the eighth pole.
	International Star Dortmund Carpe Diem American Pharaoh Frosted Mubtaahij Materiality Far Right Firing Line Upstart Tencendur Danzig Moon

*This information has been adapted from MoneyLine Express’s yearly contribution to SBRForum.

[Heppy10]

The more i look at International Star the more i like him, think he likes the distance and keeps getting better, reminds me a bit of animal kingdom

[Heppy10]

Also interested to see the odds on Bolo think he has a shot

[pty507]

The Kentucky Derby race is the hardest race to handicap. No always the best horse win due to the big field. This Kentucky derby is full of good horses but I think American Pharoah and Dortmund are the horses to beat. Carpe Diem, Frosted, Firing Lane, Materiality, Upstar, International Start and El Kabeir with big chances. Mubthaiaif has lot to prove. No horse coming from outside the US has won this race.
I am betting American Pharoaf on top and I will play trifecta, superfecta, pick 3 and pick 4 with American Pharoaf on top as a single but will bet big money to show. Show pay good on this race.

[jameski999]

When will live odds be ready? I wont start capping until I know what all horses will be in the field.

Weds after they draw post positions

[BGboothA]

After looking at both the postive trends of the Kentucky Derby and the negative trends of the Kentucky Derby, what happens when we combine that information and look at the horses that stand out?
Summary

Last years winner, California Chrome finished with a score of 4, while the previous four winners before him all had 5 total points. In fact 8 of the last 9 winners have had a total of at least 4 points.

Horse	Total Points	Negative Points	Positive Points
International Star	5	0	5
Dortmund	5	0	5
Frosted	5	0	5
Mubtaahij	5	0	5
Carpe Diem	4	-1	5
American Pharaoh	4	-1	5
El Kabeir	4	0	4
Far Right	4	0	4

From our previous work in the Positive Trends data we had the field of 20 narrowed down to a total of ten different winners. Combining that information with the 14 likely winners left over after using the Negative Trend Data to eliminate contenders we come up with a total of eight horses that have the best historical chance of winning the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Lets take a closer look at each of the top eight:

International Star
International Star has dominated the Louisiana circuit winning all three prep races held at Fair Grounds including a solid field in the Louisiana Derby. He has also shown the ability to navigate through traffic and make a strong move while pinned against the rail. Add that to a +3 HBD pedigree rating for the Kentucky Derby and we have a serious contender who could produce a solid price on derby day.

Dortmund
Here is an undefeated colt who owned the Santa Anita prep season much like last years impressive winner California Chrome, yet Dortmund may not even be the best horse in Bob Baffert’s barn. Dortmund has done nothing wrong undefeated in 6 career starts and won the Santa Anita Derby with ease moving away from the field by 4+ lengths.

Frosted
This colt may be peaking at just the right time, after finishing 4th after a troubled trip in the Fountain of Youth he returned to look very impressive in a solid field at the Wood Memorial. It’s tough not to be impressed by the +11 HBD Derby Pedgiree rating coming into this race as the Churchill dirt and distance should fit this colt just fine.

Mubtaahij
The UAE Derby has historically not made a huge difference in the Kentucky Derby, but we don’t often see a finish like the one Mubtaahij put in on the new dirt surface over at Meydan. With the switch to dirt overseas and the impressive way Mubtaahij won, its impossible to count this colt out. Last year’s winner Toast Of New York didn’t run in the Kentucky Derby, but did come over to put up two impressive second place finishers against derby quality fields later in the year. Mubtaahij could be the first desert horse to wear the roses in May.

Carpe Diem
Another horse with an impressive +11 HBD Derby Pedigree Rating who is coming off two impressive victorys in the Blue Grass stakes at Keeneland and the Tampa Bay Derby. It’s always nice to see a horse that can win on multiple tracks during the prep season who should have no problem with Churchill dirt or distance. This colt has looked impressive in both starts coming off a long layoff and should be ready to fire for Todd Pletcher the first Saturday in May.

American Pharaoh
To say that his last to wins were impressive is a vast understatement. His win in the Arkansas Derby was a thing of beauty, the jockey never asked for his best and he was still able to move away from a quality field with ease. The only loss on this colts record was a first time out 5th place way back in August, and he followed that up 4 length victory in a G1 stakes in the Del Mar Futurity. While he doesn’t have the most prep points in the field, he is likely to be your deserved post time favorite.

El Kabeir
After an impressive win in the Gotham Stakes El Kabeir failed as the favorite returning in the Wood Memorial. His run in the Wood looks worse than it was after questionable placement along the backstretch. After watching from the back as the field produced very sub-par splits, El Kabeir was still able to make up ground on the entire field coming down the stretch, he likely won’t be that far back in the Derby.

Far Right
After two impressive wins in the Smart Jones Stakes and the Southwest Stakes, Far Right ran into a monster in American Pharaoh during the Arkansas Stakes, but was able to rally for a clear 2nd. The concern with this horse is that he has already shown he inability to hang close to American Pharaoh and his -8 Derby Pedigree Rating may point toward problems with the derby distance and the Churchill dirt.

[BGboothA]

One Week!!!!!

We will be ramping up our stuff, and I will be posting more into this thread as we get more out there, final big works should be this weekend as well.

[MickeyBlue]

Awesome--thank you all

[Sick_in_the_Head]

Loving the write ups. Thanks.

[sandyw123]

My list that I'll box top 4 finishers from (waiting for post positions)
Probably will do several
Dortmund
American Pharaoh
Mubtaahij
Carpe Diem
Frosted
Firing Line
International Star
Danzig Moon
I'm thinking there needs to be a closer or two in the mix.

[DMBcardinal]

Love the info, keep it up!

[Stallion]

This info is awesome

[jjgatz1925]

This chick Sam Ayres with Blasscyk WINS knows her crap. She gave me winners at SA and Aqueduct for free. Good stuff.

[Boner_18]

Thanks BGA. Love this material in a year i've been not able to follow the lead-up very closely!

[cutchemist42]

Great stuff, I think I'll be playing a double across the Oaks and Derby,

[Heppy10]

My Win bets
Frosted * My most confident
Mubtaahij
International Star
El Kabeir
Metaboss

[sandyw123]

From helloracefans.com. Mining Derby Data
Only 2 dual qualifiers have won the Kentucky Derby since 2000, Street Sense and Super Saver. If that trend holds true, eliminate
Dortmund
Carpe Diem
El Kabeir

[StackinGreen]

Those two won because they had two word names starting with S.

Your correlation is irrelevant, especially in that direction.

[mikemca]

Wow Battaglia lost his mind thinking this is a 2 horse race.

Some very good horses at 15-1 and up

[StackinGreen]

I agree, and I'm sympathetic to Dortmund

[BGboothA]

A Horses

18-American Pharaoh
If there is one horse in the field that I can’t make an argument against its this colt from the Baffert barn. He has done nothing wrong and to call his wins impressive is a vast understatement. The only knock others have is that he hasn’t beat anyone of note, but then again who really has? And what other horses in this field beat the weaker prep competition by 14+ lengths? The pace doesn’t seem to be an issue as he showed in the Arkansas Derby that he can rate just fine and make a move when Victor Espinoza gives the signal. If I had to pick one horse in the field this one would be it without much thought or pause.

08-Dortmund
It’s a little ridiculous to think that the top two horses in this field belong to the same barn, but Baffert has a duo here that should put him in prime position to win his fourth Kentucky Derby. There isn’t much not to like about Dortmund his size is underestimated as a positive. With a crowded field of 20 he should be able to control the traffic as he wishes. He has won every race he has ever ran and has done so while showing his ability to fight and make multiple moves. The only concern is the pace as he likes to be up front and could get caught up in a speed duel that derails his chances late.

06-Mubtaahij
The more I look at this colt the more I like him here. He has the pedigree, he has a monster trainer and has been pointing toward this event his entire career. The move to dirt overseas at Meydan eliminates a major concern that past UAE Derby winners had to contend with. His win in the UAE derby was outstanding, he has won at a 1-3/16, a distance longer than any other horse has even ran thus far. The UAE Derby wasn’t a fluke, he has impressive wins multiple length wins against solid company throughout his career and has won four of his last five.

B Horses
12-International Star
The most underrated colt in this field in my opinion and a win here wouldn’t blow me out of the water. But he has to get a pace to run into and he has to have a clean trip. He has already shown the ability to move through traffic while taking a bump or two which is huge. He should have a fast pace to get after here and could be in striking distance coming down late. He has improved in his last six races and only needs to take a small step up to hit the board here.

15-Frosted
Had the highest Brisnet speed figure last time out in the Wood Memorial coming home to an impressive two length win over what could turn out to be a nice field. Here is another horse with an impressive +11 HBD pedigree figure for the derby distance. His poor showing in the Fountain of Youth could be excused as he was bumped coming home, but if a bump is going to throw him off his game, I would have to have to come home against 19 other horses in the Derby.

02-Carpe Diem
The post draw really hurt Carpe Diem, the inside post isn’t the concern alone, but being pinned in between Ocho Ocho Ocho and Materiality means he has two choices, go strong and spend too much energy too early, or sit back and get pinched in with a wall of horses coming from the outside. There isn’t a whole lot not to like with this horse, coming off a big win in the Blue Grass, will be making his third start off the layoff and his only loss was a tough BC Juvenile where Texas Red destroyed the competition. He has won all of his other four career races by more than two lengths and we may not have even seen his best yet. His pedigree for the Derby is impressive with a crazy +11 HBD pedigree rating. We just aren’t sure how good this horse is against a real quality field. He has only beat horses in this field that are tosses.

C Horses
07-El Kabeir
His Wood memorial can be excused, but it doesn’t need to be. He was placed well back and was still able to make a strong wide move to move up to third gaining on the leaders. He has the pedigree and a solid win the the Gotham stakes. His running style fits perfectly as he could start to make his run around the turn and be in prime position to score here. He is going to have to take a step forward and get some help to find the winners circle, but could easily be in the money on Saturday afternoon.

10-Firing Line
Most will contend that his Sunland Derby was a race against nobodies, and it was. But that race was not only impressive for the way he handled that field, but they ran an insane 22.3/45.3/1:09 and he still pulled away and didn’t allow anyone to make up ground. He won’t get that kind of company here, but this is a horse that is more impressive that his record.


Longshot Bombs for Exotic Prices
19-Far Right
Breaking from the ‘far right’ is a blessing here, as he will have the field to look at and find a nice running line as they come into the first turn. He won’t have to do much in the beginning to find himself in a strong spot as they hit the final turn. His late turn of foot isn’t that impress but he has shown the ability to move well through traffic and in crowds. His win in the Southwest in the slop was a thing of beauty (go back and watch it) he is sitting 12 back with 5 furlongs to go and moved outside to pass horses along the turn, as they hit the stretch he moved back to his inside along the rail to catch the leaders and win. Another replay to watch is his run in the Smarty Jones he checked hard as the hit the turn and was able to regain his move and still win that race coming from last to first.

Tosses

01-Ocho Ocho Ocho was the first and easiest toss, will be out early and won’t be able to handle this pace. Draws the rail which was just the nail in the coffin.

17-Mr Z has had nine tries to win a race against a number of these horses and really hasn’t threatened outside of the Delta Jackpot, and that was against the horse that we just tossed out in front of him.

11-Stanford ran a strong 2nd in the Louisiana Derby, but was up front with very slow fractions and was still not able to hold off the charge from International Star. He won’t get the same soft pace up front and will have better horses to hold off.

09-Bolo is a horse that a lot of people are high on, but I just don’t see it. He hasn’t finished outside of third in his two tries at graded stakes, he took a step back last time out and now moves to face higher competition.

04-Tencendur is another horse that didn’t run that well in the prep season, he scored a second place finish in the wood, but was easily the third best horse in the race. Don’t see how he can hit the board here.

16-War Story wasn’t as easy of a toss as some might have him, he will be coming on late, but I don’t know that he has the talent to get up in this field.

13-ItsAKnockOut has a great name to be running the same day as the big fight, but that is about all he has going for him.

05-Danzing Moon was a horse I looked at closely as one that could come late and produce a price, but I think others like International Star and Far Right will be better suited to make that move.

14-Keen Ice copy and paste what was said about Danzing Moon.

03-Materiality went from a C horse to a toss after the post draw. A young horse with only three races under his belt is going to have to either break hard with Ocho Ocho Ocho and destroy his chances early with a quick pace, or see a wall of horses crashing down upon him.

19-Upstart was one of the last tosses, but you have to eliminate good horses to have a shot at scoring here, and this is a solid horse. Breaking from the outside and wanting the lead is a bad combination, I think they try to get up to quick and worry too much about American Pharaoh to his inside and they run themselves out of this one.

[cutchemist42]

Great stuff in the thread guys, there have been some good reads for info!

[THam12]

Great stuff BG!!! Appreciate it all my man!

Got any picks for earlier races saturday??

[BGboothA]

Great stuff BG!!! Appreciate it all my man!

Got any picks for earlier races saturday??

I will have a pick 4 that I will be putting together, but I won't look much before Race 5 at Churchill.

[THam12]

I will have a pick 4 that I will be putting together, but I won't look much before Race 5 at Churchill.

Good stuff. I wont be at my betting spot til around race 6 i dont think so sounds good man.