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Florida and Louisiana Derby Preview
Louisiana Derby
1 – STANFORD – Coming off a monster workout and moving third start off layoff, there are a number of reasons to think that this colt is setup to run his very best. The question is clear, is his best good enough to hang in this jump in class. The distance shouldn’t be a problem and neither should hitting the board here and getting a few points toward getting into the gate in May.
2 – MR. Z – This well raced colt is clearly the most seasoned horse in the field, but with that seasoning he has yet shown his ability to win against graded stakes fields. A finish in the money would be of no surprise, but this horse seems destined to watch others take the walk in the winner’s circle. The pace will be interesting here and Mr. Z will likely be able to grab the rail and get a perfect trip. More than likely even a 4th place finish here will likely be enough to get him close to the gates at Churchill, which may not be a problem here.
3 – DEFONDO – After an impressive win a 6f this colt moved to the route distance his last time out and finished second to a much weaker field. He showed a dramatic decline in form and his pedigree figures (-13 HBD figure) show that this distance may be too much for him to handle. A step up in class along with a step up in distance beyond what he looks to be capable of, seems to point toward an easy toss here.
4 – FUSAICHI FLAME – Speaking of easy toss, here is another horse that doesn’t seem to belong with this class here. Even coming off an impressive looking 5 length win last time out this is a colt that hasn’t showed any reason to think he can finish close to the field at this distance.
5 – A DAY IN PARADISE – Another horse coming off a multiple length win and another horse that doesn’t seem to belong in this class of a field. Two wins in five career starts, yet none of them near a graded stakes field. Speed figures are well below what would be needed to hit the board here. Another easy toss.
6 – WAR STORY – Four races with two wins and two second place finishes puts this colt in prime position to hit the board here. But he has finished 2nd to International Star in back-to-back races. He is coming off an impressive workout here at Fairgrounds just a week or so ago, but I still fear that will not be enough to find the winners circle in this one. With 24 points already in his belt for the Derby season, he may already have enough to find a starting gate in May.
7 – KEEN ICE – It’s not very often during this time a year when we are watching most of the three-year olds stretching out and adding distance that we see a horse that may actually need the added 1/16th to be at his best. Here is a colt that has a +5 HBD pedigree figure for this distance and may improve here with the added distance. Coming third start off a layoff and showing a 5/1 morning line this is a colt that could show a nice profit and may be poised to run the best race of his career.
8 – ST. JOE BAY – Here is a horse that should be up front along with Mr. Z and will likely help decide the overall pace model that this race receives. Here is a horse that took a nice step forward his last time out against a similar field. It would require yet another step forward to best the same horses that he has failed to in the past. The colt boasts a very unimpressive -22 HBD pedigree figure for this distance and will likely return to sprinting where he is much better suited.
9 – INTERNATIONAL STAR – Coming 3rd off a layoff having improved in each of his last three starts, here is a horse that already has 71 points in the Derby contest and clearly already has travel plans for Churchill in May. His win in the Risen Star was impressive, but his penultimate start showed his ability to move through traffic and return to full speed after being forced to change course late in the stretch. Attributes that will require a solid look in a month’s time the first Saturday in May.
Florida Derby
1- AMI’S FLATTER – After an impressive 1 for 1 in 2014, this colt hasn’t found the winners circle since his that first race at Woodbine. Coming off a 2nd place finish to Carpe Diem last month in the Tampa Bay Derby, the connections only needs to finish in the top 4 to find their way into the gates at Churchill. That 2ndplace finish in the Tampa Bay derby was less than impressive as he was able to catch a dead tired Divining Rod and couldn’t keep pace with the hand ridden winner. Stretching out another 1/16th doesn’t seem to suite this colt who has a -6 HBD pedigree rating for the Florida Derby distance.
2 – JACK TRIPP – A horse that hasn’t raced in two months, hasn’t finished in the top three against optional claimers in the past 3 races and hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in October. Combine that with a -5 HBD pedigree rating for this distance and this is an easy toss. That being said this colt who is a half-brother to the 1 Ami’s Flatter will likely play a role in the outcome of this race. He will likely be pressing the lead here and could determine what kind of a pace the rest of the field get to run into. That being said, there is nothing in his history to make us think that he has a chance to hold off the others even if he gets a soft pace and the lead.
3 – INDIANAUGHTY – Will make his first start on the dirt after a poor showing in the El Camino Real Derby on Golden Gates synthetic surface. This foreign shipper from England brings some solid turf pedigree and should be able to handle the distance. If the pace gets wild and Indianaughty is able to come from just off the pace he could turn some heads coming home. But it will all depend on how he handles the surface. He has been working out fairly well at Gulfstream Park. This could be a nice price to keep an eye on to include in exotics.
4 – ITSAKNOCKOUT – This undefeated (on paper) colt is coming off a race where he was clearly beat by Upstart, but was placed in first due to a disqualification. Having watched the replay a number of times, I don’t believe for a second that Itsaknockout would have caught him in that last sixteenth. That being said, this is horse coming 2nd off a layoff. His penultimate start before the layoff was a monster OC win over this same surface and a return to that prior form could make him clearly the best here. He was a close second to Upstart last time out, but that could have easily been the race he needed to get back into form.
5 – QUIMET – It’s that time of year where any connections all around have dreams of getting into the big one the first weekend in May. The connections here are no different, except I fear it’s only a dream. This is a horse that only has one win in five career starts all at a much lower level than what he will face here. His last outing he finished 16 lengths behind the leader. A -10 HBD pedigree rating for this distance doesn’t look to help the outlook here and this should be an easy toss.
6 – MY POINT EXACTLY – Coming off back to back wins looks great, coming off a six month layoff does not. Two wins in four starts, but neither against company close to the class he shall face in the Florida Derby. He does have a very strong late turn of foot and likes to start his move on the turn which could lead him into the money, but a career best is needed to come close to the leaders in this one.
7 – MATERIALITY – Undefeated in two starts, both with in impressive form. This is definitely a step up in class, but a return to form is all that is required to press the leaders at the end here. His running style should put him just off the leaders and he could get a nice run coming from an outside post. His -7 HBD pedigree rating is some concern but his last two races have indicated the length in distance may not be a problem.
8 – DEKABRIST – The only horse in the field with a positive (+1) HBD pedigree rating for this distance. But it doesn’t seem that the pedigree will be enough here. This colt has two wins in 13 career starts and he hasn’t even found the money in his last ten career starts. He has raced in a number of graded stakes races, he just hasn’t raced in any of them well. This is the easiest toss of the field.
9 – UPSTART – Coming off two wins (yes he was placed 2nd last time out) this is a colt that will likely get a perfect trip coming from the outside, is making his third start off layoff and has ran three races with Brisnet speed figures in triple digits. There is simply no reason to think that this isn’t the best horse in the field. It all comes down to value, there is a good chance that Upstart will be looking at less than even money.
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Originally Posted by BGboothA
