1. 01-27-15 06:12 AM #1
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    Edge-Bets Horse Racing Value Bets Thread

    Hi everyone,

    Came across the forum this morning and thought I'd throw in my 2 cents with everyone =)
    I'll post my selections as close to real time as possible and welcome anyone to follow along that wishes (responsibly) to.

    Had a decent (undocumented here) day yesterday but with only 2 Meets today, only found one +ev selection:
    Taunton 14:00- For n Against @ 19 EW

    It is worth shouting from the rooftops that this Price is where the value is. I do not in any way, shape or form claim to know or believe that this horse will win today. What I do claim is that with a sufficient number of occurrences, this horse... at this price... would produce a positive expectation i.e. profits. And those are the only bets we should be taking (when the odds on offer imply a lesser chance of the outcome occurring than the true probability)

    Good luck everyone, be back soon =)
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  2. 01-27-15 12:50 PM #2
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    Taunton 14:00- For n Against @ 19 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    More meetings tomorrow, hopefully some good value to be found... Talk soon =)
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  3. 01-28-15 05:56 AM #3
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    Hi Everyone,

    Found 2 selections today:

    Newcastle 13:50- Fascino Rustico @ 2.3 EW
    Newcastle 13:50- Delta Forty @ 9 EW

    Both have a decent positive edge, we'll see what happens =)
    Hope everyone has a great one, stay warm!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 01-28-15 at 06:18 AM. Reason: Cleaning up post after quickly posting selections before odds ccould change.
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  4. 01-28-15 10:26 AM #4
    balls2wall
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    Welcome to the forums Edge!

    The horse forums are kind of slow except for big race days, but the guys in this sub forum are all good guys.

    Good luck
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  5. 01-28-15 05:12 PM #5
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    Thank you for the welcome, Balls2wall... anyone with allegiance to Neil deGrasse Tyson is a +ev bet for being a cool person
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  6. 01-28-15 05:27 PM #6
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    Newcastle 13:50- Fascino Rustico @ 2.3 EW
    Won +1.56 Units
    Newcastle 13:50- Delta Forty @ 9 EW
    Place +0.6 Units

    Plenty of racing tomorrow, looking forward to (hopefully) finding some value out there... talk soon!
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  7. 01-29-15 05:49 AM #7
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    Hi everyone,

    Found 3 selections today:

    Wincanton 13:40- Otago Trail @ 2.2 EW
    Wincanton 13:40- Courtlands Prince @ 51 EW
    Towcester 15:20- Brave Helios @ 21 EW

    There are some long odds in there. It takes a certain mindset (a very long-term and forward thinking one) to jump on low probability, yet +ev bets. They only happen...well... as often as they should (which isn't often) but when they do they put us massively ahead. Again, we're not predicting who will win, we're simply finding value, playing the odds and letting it ride.

    All (3) selections may fail today... all (3) may cash. These individual results aren't what's important. The sum of our parts is what matters and when you sensibly wager on nothing but positive expectation occurrences, you will win overall =)

    Talk soon!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 01-29-15 at 06:21 AM.
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  8. 01-29-15 09:52 AM #8
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    Results for 1/29:

    Wincanton 13:40- Otago Trail @ 2.2 EW
    Won +1.44 Units
    Wincanton 13:40- Courtlands Prince @ 51 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Towcester 15:20- Brave Helios @ 21 EW
    Place +3 Units

    Best of luck to everyone today with money still on the table!
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  9. 01-30-15 05:47 AM #9
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    Selections for Fri 1/30:

    Lingfield 13:00- Jubilee Brig @ 8 EW
    Lingfield 14:00- Sparring @ 7.5 EW
    Lingfield 15:45- Jersey Bull @ 13 EW
    Chepstow 16:35- Astre Rose @ 9 EW

    Great value to be found today. Good luck to everyone, stay safe!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 01-30-15 at 06:05 AM.
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  10. 01-30-15 05:24 PM #10
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    Results for 1/30

    Lingfield 13:00- Jubilee Brig @ 8 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Lingfield 14:00- Sparring @ 7.5 EW
    Win +7.8 Units
    Lingfield 15:45- Jersey Bull @ 13 EW
    Place +1.4 Units
    Chepstow 16:35- Astre Rose @ 9 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Great results today with our week really shaping up =) Hope everyone had a profitable one as well, talk soon!
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  11. 01-31-15 06:01 AM #11
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    Selections for Sat 1/31:

    Fairyhouse 16:15- Honeys Joy @ 3.75 EW
    Wetherby 13:00- Bobs Lady Tamure @ 6.5 EW
    Lingfield 13:10- Dukes Meadow @ 19 EW
    Lingfield 14:20- Archibald Thorburn @ 6.5 EW

    Good luck everyone!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 01-31-15 at 06:28 AM.
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  12. 01-31-15 10:37 AM #12
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    Results Sat 1/31

    Wetherby 13:00- Bobs Lady Tamure @ 6.5 EW
    Won +6.6 Units
    Lingfield 13:10- Dukes Meadow @ 19 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Lingfield 14:20- Archibald Thorburn @ 6.5 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Fairyhouse 16:15- Honeys Joy @ 3.75 EW
    Place -0.45 Units

    Daily Result +2.15 Units

    Nice and easy Saturday with Bobs Lady Tamure giving us our profits for the day. We've had a really smooth week so far with a steady forward pace... nothing terribly dramatic wither way, we'll take it!

    I'll be back in the tomorrow with Sunday's selections and I'll be posting our weekly recap results/video shortly after those results are in. Talk then! =)
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  13. 02-01-15 05:07 AM #13
    amitaf0
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    HI. great results. thanks for your job
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  14. 02-01-15 06:32 AM #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by amitaf0 View Post
    HI. great results. thanks for your job
    Hi amitaf0, much welcome... thank you for the encouragement!
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  15. 02-01-15 06:36 AM #15
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    Selections for Sunday 2/1

    Musselburgh 14:00- Announcement @ 23 EW

    Musselburgh 16:00- Cottage Oak @ 7.5 EW
    Musselburgh 16:00- King Fontaine @ 17 EW

    Musselburgh 16:30- Bell Weir @ 17 EW
    Musselburgh 16:30- Arctic Court @ 34 EW

    Chelmsford City 13:15- Chasing Rubies @ 7.5 EW

    Punchestown 13:40- Federici @ 5 EW
    Punchestown 13:40- Ipsos Du Berlais @ 8.5 EW
    Punchestown 13:40- Mister First @ 17 EW

    Punchestown 14:10- Oscar Knight @ 4.5 EW
    Punchestown 15:10- Gold Patrol @ 21 EW

    Ton of selections today, by my standards! We'll see what happens...

    The thing to bare in mind is this: if every single horse loses... we still had an edge and these were smart bets. If every horse wins, they could have just as easily lost. We're not stupid when they lose, we're not geniuses when they win. The numbers will govern the outcome over the long-run... we're just hitching a ride =)

    I'll post a weekly recap writeup/video after results are in later today, good luck everyone!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 02-01-15 at 10:42 AM. Reason: Prices moved at Punchtown 13:40 giving value on 2 more selections
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  16. 02-01-15 10:52 AM #16
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    For lack of an eloquent way to summarize today's results... they were absolute shite. Everything on the board today was low prob, high edge and, truth be told, would be bet the exact same way tomorrow if the same opportunities presented themselves. That's how the game works... the universe gives us the opportunities... but it never said that the winners and losers would come in a format/order easily digestible.

    Days like this happen, but so do days where everything cashes... Jump and shout when they cash, take a slow walk around the block when they don't (as I'm about to go do)... but always trust your edge. I will be posting a full breakdown of our week with a video recap along with how each of our selections fared against the SP shortly... After my walk.
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  17. 02-01-15 03:50 PM #17
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    Results 2/1

    Chelmsford City 13:15- Chasing Rubies @ 7.5 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Punchestown 13:40- Federici @ 5 EW
    Place -0.2 Units
    Punchestown 13:40- Ipsos Du Berlais @ 8.5 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Punchestown 13:40- Mister First @ 17 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Musselburgh 14:00- Announcement @ 23 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Punchestown 14:10- Oscar Knight @ 4.5 EW
    Place -0.3 Units

    Punchestown 15:10- Gold Patrol @ 21 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Musselburgh 16:00- Cottage Oak @ 7.5 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Musselburgh 16:00- King Fontaine @ 17 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Musselburgh 16:30- Bell Weir @ 17 EW
    Loss -2 Units
    Musselburgh 16:30- Arctic Court @ 34 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Daily Result -18.50 Units
    Weekly Result -2.60 Units

    Sorry to use up all the red ink guys. Grinded out a great profit this week and gave it back today. We'd take these bets every single time tho... we at least have solace in the fact that we were on the right side... it just wasn't our turn =)

    I'll be back tomorrow with Monday's selections, take care!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 02-01-15 at 03:55 PM.
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  18. 02-02-15 12:38 AM #18
    amitaf0
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    (A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.) "Winston Churchill"

    you're doing a great job
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  19. 02-02-15 06:04 AM #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by amitaf0 View Post
    (A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.) "Winston Churchill"

    you're doing a great job
    Very appreciated, Amitaf! =)
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  20. 02-02-15 06:11 AM #20
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    Selections for Mon 2/2:

    Wolverhampton 17:10- Solar Deity @ 3.75 EW

    Poor day for value... Musselburgh was abandoned leaving us with only (2) meets to consider. We'll hang our hat on Solar Deity and call it a day =)

    Good luck everyone!
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 02-02-15 at 06:17 AM.
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  21. 02-02-15 05:26 PM #21
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    Wolverhampton 17:10- Solar Deity @ 3.75 EW
    Loss -2 Units

    Market Rasen has been abandoned for tomorrow leaving us with Southwell and Kempton to scour over. I'll be back tomorrow with any opportunities that present themselves =)
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  22. 02-03-15 05:57 AM #22
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    No Selections Tues 2/3

    Absolutely nothing of interest for us today guys. I'll be back tomorrow with anything that pops up... take care!
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  23. 02-04-15 06:06 AM #23
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    No Selections Weds 2/4

    Poor fields for value again today. I almost wept when I saw tomorrow's racing agenda... we actually have more than (2) meets. I'll be back with tomorrow's update, take care everyone!
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  24. 02-06-15 05:49 AM #24
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    No Selections Thurs 2/5
    (Sorry guys, got caught up in a very productive live chat and almost missed getting the kids to school!... Posting this now just to acknowledge that we had nothing yesterday)

    Selections Fri 2/6

    Kempton 14:00- Scorpiancer @ 11 EW
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 02-06-15 at 06:09 AM.
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  25. 02-07-15 06:05 AM #25
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    Selections Sat 2/7

    Warwick 13:00- Kingscourt Native @ 2.5 EW
    Warwick 13:00- Colins Brother @ 8.5 EW
    Warwick 13:00- Nightline @ 13 EW

    Naas 13:55- Whatwillwecallher @ 7 EW

    Naas 15:40- Viconte Du Noyer @ 9 EW

    NAAS 16:45- Pylonthepressure @ 2.62 EW

    Lingfield 13:30- Royal Mizar @ 13 EW

    Lingfield 15:10- Beach Bar @ 21 EW
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 02-07-15 at 06:35 AM.
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  26. 02-08-15 06:05 AM #26
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    Selections Sun 2/8

    Leopardstown 13:15- Kalkir @ 2.5 EW
    Leopardstown 13:15- Prussian Eagle @ 51 EW
    Leopardstown 13:15- Ill Be Your Clown @ 67 EW

    Leopardstown 14:45- Shanahans Turn @ 17 EW

    Leopardstown 16:20- On The Fringe @ 3.25 EW
    Leopardstown 16:20- Current Exchange @ 23 EW

    Leopardstown 16:50- Ben Button @ 12 EW
    Last edited by EdgeBets; 02-08-15 at 06:25 AM.
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