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Santa Anita Saturday 27th
This started out as an email to one of our loyal players, shoutout to @AnthonyDemo! Thanks for ‘making’ me do this. But I
thought I would share since I will be playing SA all day today.
First let me say that I would be happy to tell you how I use the sheets, but let me say that everyone uses them differently. We have customers who blindly play the top four in exactas and/or trifectas, we have customers who use them to play pick3s and pick4s. And we a great deal of customers who use them as aids while doing what they normally did with the DRF or Brisnet sheets.
But here is how I personally look at them, I will actually bet three or four of the SA card races straight up. At Santa Anita I really like the horizontal pools, or the DD, P3 and P4. What I am looking for to start with are possible singles.
I am going to look for our angles to start with, there is a SPDBET in the 6th here, but its the 4 horse that falls out of the top half of the field overall, so no single there (I will play him in a ladder at 20-1 though).
Here are some of bets for the day as they stand right now, they will all change based on Post Time odds and the what not. I will also try to include my thought process as well.
R1 = NB I like the 5 moving R2S, and with an edge in HBD E1 and HBD E2 values. but there won’t be value in his price to play straight up. I will use him in horizontals. Along with the 3 and 7 depending on the other races.
My bet(s) this race = DD 5 / 2,4,8,11 ($8)
DD 3,5,7 / 11,4 ($12)
Like I said, I like the horizontals here, The reason I am playing the double is that I hate the 3rd race (see below). I am playing two bets, if I wanted to play one on a shorter budget I would have played the 5/4,11 as you can see those I have doubled up. What I am basically doing here is making two bets on my favorite horses and then surrounding them with otherpossible horses or prices.
R2 =Wide open race here, I like the 11, 4 and 2 along with the 8 in that order. The 2 is moving R2S and has the top Early Pace number along with the inside post in an sprint race, could produce a good price too. The 11 is a solid favorite, and still could provide a 3-1 price or so.
Race 3 = FTR (Forget this race), this race has 10 possible first time starters. I like to have data on my bets and I don’t have any data here. Heck if you look up in the top right hand corner we have 8% of the data available for this race. I want nothing to do with it.
Race 4 = I like the our top 4 as a whole, I can’t find a reason to separate them. 11-2-7-4, if I had to order them I would put the 2 on top, but I like all 4 of them.
Race 5 = Here is an interesting race IMO, the 7 has HBDE1, HBDE2 and HBDEP advantages over the field but is stretching out as well. He will have the lead even from the outsidepost I think (the 1 could argue with me there), if he can hold he is the winner, I will be looking at the first few races on the dirt to see how the front runners held, and will make a play based on that info. Secret Circle the 6 will be a less than money favorite, but I think he is vulnerable here a bit. Not sure how I will play this race until I see prices closer to post, but I likely play a horse to beat SC here.
Race 6 = The 3 should win here and win pulling away, if I had to single I would single here. Although like I said earlier, I may throw a WPS Ladder bet on the SPDBET 4 here and take a shot at a long price.
Race 7 = I really like the favorite here as well in the 5, Will be out front and should be able to sit just off the leaders and have the bet run coming home. Pace sets up nice here for the 5 as well, another possible single here IMO, but I will include some others in the B and C horses as well. The 10 is intriguing here a bit and could try to get the pace from the far outside.
R8 = This thing is wide open, honestly its a 9f race and 5 horses in the field consider that a drop in distance, meaning anything can happen. I will go deepest here. Honestly anyone of the 3,5,6,7,9,11. My top pick would be the 7 BLINGISMYTHING with Talamo aboard. And I love the possibility of a double digit price. I may play him on a WPS ladder if I feel like it at that point and time.
R9 = Gotta like the favorite here in the 5 and will put up a single in the A column again. I also like the rest of our top4 in the 9,1,7 along with the 11.
I am not sure how familar you are with the ABC idea of creating a horizontal bet, but you need to. If there is one horse racing book you read this year it should be this one (http://www.amazon.com/Exotic-Betting.../dp/1932910921)
Late Pick 4
R6 = A (3) / B (x) / C (4,5,11)
R7 = A (5) / B (x) / C (3,7,8,10)
R8 = A (5,7,11) / B (3,6) / (C (x)
R9 = A (5) / B (1,7,9,11) / C (x)
Here is my final P4 ticket(s)
All A Entries
$2.00 pick P4: 3 with 5,10 with 5,7,11 with 5 $12.00
A’s with One B
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 5,10 with 3,6 with 5 $2.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 5,10 with 5,7,11 with 1,7,9,11 $12.00
A’s with Two B’s
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 5,10 with 3,6 with 1,7,9,11 $8.00
A’s with One C
$0.50 pick P4: 4,5,11 with 5,10 with 5,7,11 with 5 $9.00
$0.50 pick P4: 3 with 3,7,8 with 5,7,11 with 5 $4.50
Total Base Bet of 47.50, depending on how I am doing I may bump the prices on each on of those as well.
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Originally Posted by TonyP
