1. #351
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by harthebar View Post
    Mike i have a question for you ....its for first time starters .......or maybe also maiden ...what trainers ..do you think.....are alive with there horses...im not sure what you may think....but sometimes i feel if a t.p. Trained horse isnt bet ..and lets say his ml is 3-1 he goes off at 5-1...i tend to shy away from that horse.....what % of horses by asmussen first timer if not bet .dont win....how much you put into that....like i remember the first time goldenscents raced .ml was 8-1 het got bet 2-1 or about won by 12....so what trainers do you hold true into that ....for example that 2 horse today from the second race ml 10-1 closed 18-1 now ...i know when you post ...is so hard ...because i know you run into that situation.... Because you cant see that stuff............now knowing those odds would you still play him.? Tough one...huh lol i just watched a race at monmouth...they loaded the horse seconds before post..he won easy

    It depends on the situation.Say a Pletcher or Baffert have 2 uncoupled horses with one looking much better but I like the "other" one.I expect and welcome the drift up in odds.The horse today for Asmussen is the other way.Was totally dead on the board telling you the chances weren't good.

    Usually if it's a trainer that is excellent with 1sters and he/she is dead on board then it's a big red flag.If I think I found a sneaky one based on breeding or better than workouts look on paper for a so so or bad trainer then a drift in odds doesn't bother me at all.




    Quote Originally Posted by JJJ View Post
    Mike nice hit with the 3 in the 3rd wish they didn't bring that 5 down though but he deserved it any clarity for the late races at saratoga
    Yeah I dunno about the DQ..thought the 9 came in while the 5 was coming out.Chalky day though so far.Pick 5 only paid $398

    If the next couple dirt races are merry go rounds I may go with Zee Bros and toss Clearly Now altogether.It also makes Miss Behavior tough in the filly stake.Can just put her on top of 1,3,8.

  2. #352
    harthebar
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    ok ..thought so......you thought 5 should of stayed also.. ?
    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    It depends on the situation.Say a Pletcher or Baffert have 2 uncoupled horses with one looking much better but I like the "other" one.I expect and welcome the drift up in odds.The horse today for Asmussen is the other way.Was totally dead on the board telling you the chances weren't good.

    Usually if it's a trainer that is excellent with 1sters and he/she is dead on board then it's a big red flag.If I think I found a sneaky one based on breeding or better than workouts look on paper for a so so or bad trainer then a drift in odds doesn't bother me at all.






    Yeah I dunno about the DQ..thought the 9 came in while the 5 was coming out.Chalky day though so far.Pick 5 only paid $398

    If the next couple dirt races are merry go rounds I may go with Zee Bros and toss Clearly Now altogether.It also makes Miss Behavior tough in the filly stake.Can just put her on top of 1,3,8.

  3. #353
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    Quote Originally Posted by harthebar View Post
    ok ..thought so......you thought 5 should of stayed also.. ?

    I thought it could have gone either way but I wish they didn't have DQs and just fined the jocks if they ride dangerously or illegally.Allowing humans to completely change the result of a race that millions are bet on allows for all types of corruption.

  4. #354
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    Wow that was impressive win for Stonetastic

    Was wire to wire though but kicking away late

  5. #355
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    Quote Originally Posted by TonyP View Post
    Glad you posted these early Mike so whoever is going to play pk4 or more can construct a ticket with these as well
    So pissed....I picked Zamquick and the $79 wps in the Pace contest but come to find out it doesn't count because I am at the limit for plays


  6. #356
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    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    So pissed....I picked Zamquick and the $79 wps in the Pace contest but come to find out it doesn't count because I am at the limit for plays

    dang, they should change the rules a bit like have the max 3 a day and minimum 15 each however change it to no limit on total after getting the required amount with the 3 max a day rule still in place.

  7. #357
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    Agree...The more picks you make the bigger disadvantage you are at.Shouldn't matter how many you pick.

    For instance if you make 5 picks it only takes $31 to have a positive ROI

    If you make 100 picks it takes $601

  8. #358
    harthebar
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    agree with that 100% fine the jockeys...let the race stand.if they took the 5 down take the 3 down ...ok i should let that dog lie...lol
    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    I thought it could have gone either way but I wish they didn't have DQs and just fined the jocks if they ride dangerously or illegally.Allowing humans to completely change the result of a race that millions are bet on allows for all types of corruption.

  9. #359
    TonyP
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    Lets get a late pk4 going today

  10. #360
    harthebar
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    HERE
    Aug. 31, 2014 04:42 PM 18749444F99E Saratoga Race Course 9 $0.50 P4 3 / 1,2,4,6 / 5,7,8 / 5,6,8,10,12 $30.00
    IS MY PICK 4

  11. #361
    harthebar
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    Yea, what else is new chapman..FIRST LEG #3... 2nd by a nose...he just cant get by.....that sums up my saratoga meet
    Quote Originally Posted by harthebar View Post
    here
    aug. 31, 2014 04:42 pm 18749444f99e saratoga race course 9 $0.50 p4 3 / 1,2,4,6 / 5,7,8 / 5,6,8,10,12 $30.00
    is my pick 4

  12. #362
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    yeah i had him too

  13. #363
    harthebar
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    thought you were a winner too....ill wager my numbers in the pick 4 will all come in now.....now that i lost the first by a nose....now.anyone,mike,tony did i hear that right....since the 11th race is of the turf....you now have everyone in that race .as far as the pick 4 is concerned ??
    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    yeah i had him too

  14. #364
    mikemca
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    hart you are missing the fantasy draft

  15. #365
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    you got arian foster and jimmy graham so far though so pretty damn good auto picks

  16. #366
    harthebar
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    shit i just got off work where do i go

  17. #367
    harthebar
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    send me link

  18. #368
    harthebar
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    i cant find where i draft

  19. #369
    harthebar
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    i have no clue where to go

  20. #370
    harthebar
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    i cant find where to draft ????

  21. #371
    harthebar
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    hello where do i go ..i cant find it anywhere..i guess ill let computer finish

  22. #372
    harthebar
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    i found it .im stupid i forgot it was on espn ..i like my team...though

  23. #373
    harthebar
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    i was a idiot ..i was looking all over this site for draft...i forgot it was espn..i can live with my guys .......thanks mike....sorry i missed it

  24. #374
    mikemca
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    Yeah sorry hart...today was crazy ...I'm in the huge 2 day contest on derby wars which was going on all during the draft.


    I posted reminders all week...Don't feel bad..2 other guys missed it too

    All 3 of those teams are pretty good though

  25. #375
    harthebar
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    like my team..mostly like the fact i got deshawn and rg3 how are you doing in contest...by the way .borgata is having a contest next week.....would you ever go.

  26. #376
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    im off next sat

  27. #377
    mikemca
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    Quote Originally Posted by harthebar View Post
    like my team..mostly like the fact i got deshawn and rg3 how are you doing in contest...by the way .borgata is having a contest next week.....would you ever go.
    I'm hanging in there in the top 20-25%. Need a big day tomorrow.


    Can't just get away like that and go to the shore by myself.

  28. #378
    harthebar
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    this is it mike......is it a good one ???Name:  IMAG0170.jpg
Views: 127
Size:  16.1 KB

  29. #379
    mikemca
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    Sure it looks good..I prefer a very top heavy pay out and even though it pays 11 places 1st-2nd-3rd seem like the standard payout.

    DW has 15ks or 25ks every weekend and the 2 day ones are 100k pots.This is the first one of them but having another on Halloween

  30. #380
    TonyP
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    Good Luck Mike on the contest today

  31. #381
    harthebar
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    mike what is dw
    Quote Originally Posted by mikemca View Post
    Sure it looks good..I prefer a very top heavy pay out and even though it pays 11 places 1st-2nd-3rd seem like the standard payout.

    DW has 15ks or 25ks every weekend and the 2 day ones are 100k pots.This is the first one of them but having another on Halloween

  32. #382
    TonyP
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    Derby Wars

  33. #383
    mikemca
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    thx i was in 30th until last race last night and kinda pissed I missed the $45 gimme

    I have that horse 75% of the time but played it safe trying to just get to today within striking range.The 2 and 3 had the best #s on Timeform and the 3 had the easy lead.Both just had to pass the class test.

  34. #384
    mikemca
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    Not going my way so far

    Had Shinnecock Bay who finished 3rd at 18-1
    Where's Danny got 2nd at 15-1 because A Worrie came off the rail for Javi to sneak up with the fave
    Whateveryouwant was 4th at 33-1 to 1.6 million dollar baby Carpe Diem whose dam Rebridled Dreams by the way has had 5 foals so far and 4 of them won 1st time out

  35. #385
    mikemca
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    Damn...I blew it

    Had opportunities and missed the finale at Del Mar last night and the finale at Spa today was my alternate that I kept flipping between.Right there with those two.

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