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Belmont Trend
I'm sure some of you are aware of the angle of taking a derby horse who skipped the preakness.
7 of 14 have won since 2000. Thats a pretty sick win %, and we have 4 to choose from:
Wicked Strong
Commanding Curve
Samraat
Medal Count
Lets have some discussion here about each horse, who you like and why….
Yes, I saw this trend too. Wicked Strong had a bad trip in the Derby and seems worthy of some action but I feel like he will be bet down too much. I will have him on my tickets, just haven't figured out how exactly.
Medal Count is my pick.
In the Derby got squeezed and shuffled before the first turn then was 3 or 4 wide the whole way, then got slammed and cut off by Danza causing him to check badly right when he was getting going in the stretch.
Distance won't be a problem
Is working great
His form is very dirtied up
Will be a generous price.Maybe $30 or $40
He looks a lot like Will Take Charge coming out of the Derby
Also like Wicked Strong but if picking one I'll go with the better price.
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Medal Count is certainly bred to go the longest ...
Why not Tonalist? Last Peter Pan winner? I recall most ran 3rd (I would bet a lot of them to show)
Tonalist is the opposite of Medal Count in terms of perception.
While Medal Count's form is dirtied up causing him to be a big price , Tonalist's form is exaggerated by a sloppy track romp over 2 very average horses causing him to be a much shorter price than he should be.
Love it.....Good stuff Mike.Originally Posted by mikemca
isnt Tonalist a front runner?
i dont believe horses go wire to wire in this race...
they get loose big on the lead you never know it can happen even at 1 1/2, but i dont see any horses capable of that in this race
who is that in your avatar? poker player who killed the girl in aruba?
absolutely not.
Biggest myth of the Belmont Stakes is that deep closers do well. In actuality 92% of Belmont winners have been 1st or 2nd at the top of the stretch.
Bad comparison to Will Take Charge as he did jackshit in the Belmont before becoming a force.
Normally I hate going with the "closer in the Derby making the distance in Belmont" argument because it never pans out (ice box, giacomo, Dullahan, etc) but Commanding Curve is different. He ran into the deadest pace and headwinds to get second. That's impressive and deserves a nod.
I think Cali will win but in the event he doesn't, I'm thinking it's the other CC with ROC second. $20 exacta straight.
Well, the Race of the Day tomoorrow is the Kentucky Derby going 1 1/4 dirt. I will talk about it tomorrow, but there is a Oaks/Derby Double, I am gonna put a few $ on a few long shots.
KENTUCKY OAKS: 8- Aurelia's Belle, 9-Unbridled Forever, 13-Untapable
KENTUCKY DERBY: 5-California Chrome, 13-Chitu, 14-Medal Count, 20-Wicked Song
The problem with this year's double, there are two seeming strong favorites so the only way to make some $ is to hope that one the long shots will shock us. $2 bet will cost $24, so hopefully not both favorites come in.
As of right now, I think I am gonna stick with my Kentucky Derby picks. California Chrome with Medal Count with Wicked Strong. I still think that CC is a cut above his classmates, but anything can happen in horse racing. I remember quite a few years back when Lemon Drop Kid won the Belmont, but Chris Antley's horse Charismatic definitely looked real good turning for home, then...... So I am routing for CC and hope that we have our next triple crown winner.
If only it were that simple.Will Take Charge's Preakness and Belmont were tosses as he never had time to recover from the Derby effort, Medal Count has since he skipped the Preakness.When WTC had his usual rest he strung together nine 1st or 2nd place finishes in a row all Grade 1s and 2s before and after the derby.Had he skipped the Preakness I would guess the Belmont would have been the 10th.
Both Medal Count and WTC finished 8th in the Derby after getting hampered badly right when they were starting to get going by a Pletcher horse.
He is going to be a big price so just looking for a chance.I don't really see the point in saying the 3-5 favorite who is going for a triple crown might win.
sorry about that....
Fair enough point. WTC is a beast though now, I don't know if Medal count will touch what he has been able to accomplish.
Plus maybe Medal count is only good on synthetics
Agreed , I don't think he will come close to what WTC did.Only worried about this race and doesn't take much for me to like a 20-1 shot.
I didn't like him much in the Derby despite all the hype he got .Thinking maybe he just loved synthetic but he ran good enough.Now without as much hype and a big price in a race that plays right into the hands of a grinder.I'll bite.
I bet Wicked Strong in his very first race and have been touting him every race since but he is the obvious alternative so looking for a oddball.Will have both on top in whatever exotics I do.
think im going Wicked Strong. terrible trip in the derby, yet still came on...
has the pedigree to handle the distance. great gate schooling yesterday (obviously could be different with the crowd Sat)..
Maragh been having a strong year as well, and typically a better dirt rider...obviously knows the track well.
Heres my thoughts tommy
Cant pick California Chrome on top no value
#4 Commanding Curve- Really like this horse here, hes gotten better every race, always closing, should be able to handle the extra distance. Is fresh and working great
#7 Samraat- Great value here not sure why he is 20-1. He has the best last three races besides CC. Great chance to hit the board IMO
#3 Matterhorn- Showed great promise his first race beating fellow first time starter Tonalist. Has had bad trips since. If you like Tonalist at 8-1 you can get Matterhorn at 30-1 Tonalist is not that much if any better then him.
I really liked ROC in the derby and preakness but I decided to throw him out, i just think he's ran to much already this year
My ticket for belmont
4,7/2,4,7/1,2,3,4,7
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even if chrome wins i'll be happy, so might as well go for the win/win scenario.
history is on our side (those fading chrome)
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hey buddy gave mikemca 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.