How important will the pedigree of horses running in the Kentucky Derby be if the track is muddy? Most of them haven't even run on that type of surface, so it's really hard to handicap. I was looking at mud pedigree stats for all the horses on a PP chart. Several of them were bred from horses that were between 33% - 40% racing on mud. Is that something to take into consideration? Those horses are Revolutionary, Java's War, Goldencents, Vyjack, and West Hills Giant. On the other hand, It's My Lucky Day has won on mud at a high speed (without the pedigree for it).