[JBEX]

I see what your doing. But your tossing horses right.
Wouldn't the first play be exacta all 9
9 and all

I wouldn't play all.. just 2 favorites over the bomb for same amount as you spend on all/9 ..if you played $1
exacta I'd have $5 ex 8,10/9 and $5 win on the 9..because more money should be spent in 2nd where he's more likely to finish than 1st

[harthebar]

a or b has about a 70% winning at those odds.. if the bomb comes in anywhere 2nd - 4th I'd say around 60-70
% chance you hit the super (with a or b winning)

OK I get you ......Jbex . SO basically you are going with the percentage of horses other than the 9. Regardless if you like the two favorites or not ...your going with the numbers of probabilities

[harthebar]

Rahy's Bandit 3rd 8 to 1
J B qui c k winner 5/2
War Union th closing fast with lots of traffia 20 to 1
Light the vow 2nd 62 to 1 closing 344.00 exacta with 5/2 winningRI

Jbex. You see the war story Race 6th Keeneland

[JBEX]

so the whole thing might look like this

5 win 9 ($5)
5 ex 8,10/9 ($10)
.40 super ab/a-f/9/a-f ($16)
.60 super ab/a-f/a-f/9 ($24)

[JBEX]

OK I get you ......Jbex . SO basically you are going with the percentage of horses other than the 9. Regardless if you like the two favorites or not ...your going with the numbers of probabilities

yes I let the public decide top 2 or 3 when I like a bomb.. willing to lose if a horse > 5-1 beats my bomb
..didnt look today

[JBEX]

so the whole thing might look like this

5 win 9 ($5)
5 ex 8,10/9 ($10)
.40 super ab/a-f/9/a-f ($16)
.60 super ab/a-f/a-f/9 ($24)

realize if 9 wins it's only about a 5-1 net return but I think this is the way to go long haul.. put your ego aside and cash more often when what usually happens ..happens

[JBEX]

2 win (2)
2 ex (4)
.20 super ($8)
.40 super ($16)

$1 ex (2)
.10 super (4)
.20 super (8)

don't let win bet throw you off proportionaly..just don't bother with it IMO.. once in a long while.. ouch!!

[harthebar]

Ballagh Rocks is scheduled to run on 10/27/2016 in Race 9 at Keeneland.

War Union is scheduled to run on 10/27/2016 in Race 6 at Keeneland

J B Quick is scheduled to run on 10/27/2016 in Race 6 at Gulfstream Park West.
Light The Vow on 10/27/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont
Rahy's Bandit on 10/27/2016 in Race 1 at Belmont
Mangita on 10/27/2016 in Race 7 at Santa Anita

Mangita 3rd 9/2
Rahy's Bandit 3rd 8 to 1
J B qui c k winner 5/2
War Union th closing fast with lots of traffia 20 to 1
Light the vow 2nd 62 to 1 closing 344.00 exacta with 5/2 winningRI

[harthebar]

Wiredancer is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 2 at Charles Town.

:Over Promised is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 1 at Belmont

Ginger Stone is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 5 at Keeneland.
Big Joe Candy is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 9 at Laurel Park.
District Attorney is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 5 at Keeneland.
Table Of Elements is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 10 at Gulfstream Park West.

Day After Day scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont

:The Eagle Is Gone is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont

Over Promised scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 1 at Belmont.

Pussy Willow on 10/28/2016 in Race 5 at Belmont

Kristi's Copilot on 10/28/2016 in Race 3 at Santa Anita.
Hopefully on 10/28/2016 in Race 8 at Santa Anita.

[harthebar]

Wiredancer is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 2 at Charles Town.

:Over Promised is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 1 at Belmont

Ginger Stone is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 5 at Keeneland.




Big Joe Candy is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 9 at Laurel Park.





District Attorney is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 5 at Keeneland.




Table Of Elements is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 10 at Gulfstream Park West.




Day After Day scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont




:The Eagle Is Gone is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont




Pussy Willow on 10/28/2016 in Race 5 at Belmont

Kristi's Copilot on 10/28/2016 in Race 3 at Santa Anita.
Hopefully on 10/28/2016 in Race 8 at Santa Anita.

The Eagle Is Gone scr
Tale of elements 2nd. 5 to 1
Big Joe Candy 3d 11 to 1
Pussy Willow 13 to 1 3rd
District Attorney 2nd 5 to 1 and same race Ginger Stone 3rd 9-to 1

[harthebar]

Old Upstart is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont

[harthebar]

Old Upstart is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont

finished a strong closing 5th...follow up on....ton of run

[harthebar]

Old Upstart is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont

finished a strong closing 5th...follow up on....ton of run

[harthebar]

Old Upstart is scheduled to run on 10/28/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont

finished a strong closing 5th...follow up on....ton of run

[JBEX]

Kee R6 war union.. 4th (your pick)

5.60 (35%)
9-2 2nd (65%/18%) 3.7×
21 EX
10-1 3rd (47%/9%)5.2×
110 TRI
17-1 (yours) (38%/6%) 6.3×
693 SUPER (paid 2100..200% overlay)

4 horses between 9-2/10-1(b-e).. next lowest odds 17-1.. (a) fav


a/b-e/b-e/**
a/b-e/**/b-e
b-e/a/b-e/**
b-e/a/**/b-e

**= war union

$8/dime =$105 super (avoids taxes) this is perfectly reasonable
strategy with this odds group...main thing is you want to be on that huge
super overlay

[harthebar]

Kee R6 war union.. 4th (your pick)

5.60 (35%)
9-2 2nd (65%-18%) 3.7×
21 EX
10-1 3rd (47%-9%)5.2×
110 TRI
17-1 (yours) (38%-6%) 6.3×
693 SUPER (paid 2100..200% overlay)

4 horses between 9-2/10-1(b-e).. next lowest odds 17-1.. (a) fav


a/b-e/b-e/**
a/b-e/**/b-e
b-e/a/b-e/**
b-e/a/**/b-e

**= war union

$8/dime =$105 super (avoids taxes) this is perfectly reasonable
strategy with this odds group...main thing is you want to be on that huge
super overlay

to you doing that is like me writing the a,b,c, lol thanks ,ill catch on.to it,,,
been getting a lot of 3rd today

[JBEX]

to you doing that is like me writing the a,b,c, lol thanks ,ill catch on.to it,,,
been getting a lot of 3rd today

the "- " in my breakdown should have been "/"..my mistake and corrected it already..take some time but you'll get it eventually .. in supers favorite keyed 1st and 2nd with next 3 or 4 lowest odds with longie 3rd and 4th
general strategy

[JBEX]

1000 pool
25% take
750
15 exacta (50 had it)

15% take
850
17 exacta (50 had it)

13% more with lower take

so what ?? lower take (13% higher payoffs ) vs inefficient betting (say 100% average higher payoffs) and that's a conservative number imo..I'd rather people bet these wrong then lower the take on the bet..no brainer

[JBEX]

hey hart...think on breeders cup days I'll run a separate thread using your longies and mine in triples and/or supers and how I'd play .. not every race but ones that lend themselves to these strategies..try to post around 15 mins before race...ok with you?

[harthebar]

Beneficial Risk is scheduled to run on 10/29/2016 in Race 10 at Belmont.
:E J's Legacy is scheduled to run on 10/29/2016 in Race 8 at Belmont
Anatolian Heat on 10/29/2016 in Race 1 at Santa Anita.
Prairie Stone on 10/29/2016 in Race 7 at Parx Racing.
Storm Prophet scheduled to run on 10/29/2016 in Race 8 at Belmont
Crescent Street on 10/29/2016 in Race 8 at Belmont.
Panama Papers scheduled to run on 10/29/2016 in Race 1 at Belmont.

Face Of Winner on 10/29/2016 in Race 9 at Belmont

:Slapstick is scheduled to run on 10/29/2016 in Race 10 at Belmont.
Texas Two Step is scheduled to run on 10/29/2016 in Race 2 at Santa Anita.

[harthebar]

hey hart...think on breeders cup days I'll run a separate thread using your longies and mine in triples and/or supers and how I'd play .. not every race but ones that lend themselves to these strategies..try to post around 15 mins before race...ok with you?

Yes great . It all helps. I can use those % lol

I'm sticking with frosted. I know calif.chrome is racing at the top now.....

[JBEX]

Yes great . It all helps. I can use those % lol

I'm sticking with frosted. I know calif.chrome is racing at the top now.....

well if I'm lucky enough to get one right I'll break it down..
should be ridiculous overlays if you pop one those days..
won't be looking at pp's till next week so can't comment on the classic..should be a great race though

[mrginandtonic]

well if I'm lucky enough to get one right I'll break it down..
should be ridiculous overlays if you pop one those days..
won't be looking at pp's till next week so can't comment on the classic..should be a great race though

Thanks in advance for doing this. Can't wait!!

[harthebar]

Penpal meadowlands race 10 Breeders crown race

[harthebar]

well if I'm lucky enough to get one right I'll break it down..
should be ridiculous overlays if you pop one those days..
won't be looking at pp's till next week so can't comment on the classic..should be a great race though

if you need the pps, i can get them as soon as they come out wed nesday

[JBEX]

Thanks in advance for doing this. Can't wait!!

np mrginandtonic

[JBEX]

if you need the pps, i can get them as soon as they come out wed nesday

sounds good if you don't mind..which one's do you use ?

[harthebar]

sounds good if you don't mind..which one's do you use ?

i was going to send you a sample now i cant figure out how to send it.....

[harthebar]

nope didnt work

[harthebar]

Pinchpenny scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 4 at Belmont
Miss Atomic Bomb (Gb) is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 8 at Laurel Park

Peculiar Sensation is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont.
Algorhythmic on 10/30/2016 in Race 4 at Santa Anita.
Enchanteresse (Ire) on 10/30/2016 in Race 8 at Laurel



Over Promised scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont


Don't Ask Me Why is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 9 at Parx Racing.
Lucky J Lane is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 7 at Santa Anita
Chocolateicecream is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 9 at Churchill Downs.

:Cut is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 1 at Santa Anita.
Blarney Stones is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 3 at Belmont
:E J's Legacy is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 2 at Belmont

Baseline is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont.
Over Promised is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 6 at Belmont
Formal Summation is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 1 at Belmont.

Captain Gaughen is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 7 at Belmont

:Longisland Express is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 3 at Belmont
Perfect Wife is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 7 at Churchill Downs



Buckwellspent is scheduled to run on 10/30/2016 in Race 3 at Belmont.

Over Promised scr
Captain Gaughen scr
Perfect Wife scr
Pinchpenny scr

[harthebar]

Replies: 8,179
Views: 255,546
harthebar
To10-21-16 02:29 PMday, 02:26 PM

[harthebar]

• Replies: 8,255
• Views: 258,985

[harthebar]

West Eighth Street is scheduled to run on 10/31/2016 in Race 1 at Mahoning Valley.

[harthebar]

Thomas Hill is scheduled to run on 10/31/2016 in Race 9 at Mountaineer

:Yo Soy El Lobo is scheduled to run on 10/31/2016 in Race 5 at Parx Racing

:Baduke is scheduled to run on 10/31/2016 in Race 3 at Parx

[harthebar]

West Eighth Street is scheduled to run on 10/31/2016 in Race 1 at Mahoning Valley.

Winner. 7.00