Originally Posted by
mikemca
Santa Anita Opening Day 12/26
Race 1
I'm stuck on two 1sters with preference to 10-Top Estate 8-1 with a trainer that does well out of the gate as does the sire.However 8-Lambo Luxx 8-1 also has a good trainer and more specifically with 2 year old firsters in a MDC.Really a toss up but I'll default to the sire of the 10 who is on quite a roll and it's not a small sample.Throwing in the progressive 11-Justonemorething 7-2.
10-Top Estate 8-1
8-Lambo Luxx 8-1
11-Justonemorething 7-2
Race 2
Taking a stand and just going with 2-Divine Vision 8-1 because of the price. He is right there with the other 4 likeliest 4,5,7,8. They're all pretty much jumbled together in ability and the 2 jumped forward huge only time trying dirt and it was at SA. For an alternate I'd go with 4-Surfing Angel 9-2 who would be tough to beat if he takes the same jump forward in 3rd start that he did from start 1 to start 2.
2-Divine Vision 8-1
4-Surfing Angel 9-2
(5,7,8)
Race 3
5-Bound For Heaven 4-1 has that pattern you like to see in these maiden races.Lightly raced and improved every start so far with another improvement likely good enough to win.6-Captain Carchy 6-1 also is improving and had a terrible trip in his only dirt sprint.The price play I find appealing is 7-Rodeado 12-1 , never got going until the end at 1f shorter against a much tougher field on synth. Could be much better on dirt against this soft field and a little extra ground.If a scratch happens 3-Hurry Up Henry 6-1 has a lot of positives.
5-Bound For Heaven 4-1
6-Captain Carchy 6-1
7-Rodeado 12-1
3-Hurry Up Henry 6-1
Race 4
Baffert has a strong hand here with 4-Steam Play 7-2 and 1-Wabel 4-1. They probably win but if 11-Ideal 8-1 stays at ML I could take a shot against. Sired by Super Saver who is throwing dirt horses and only dirt horses would imply that he should run better than he did in his only start that was on synth which was already competitive.
11-Ideal 8-1
4-Steam Play 7-2
1-Wabel 4-1
Race 5
This is a tough race , you have 9 of the 10 horses running all about the same. The 1-Son Of War 8-1 and 8-Wanstead Gardens 5-1 are lightly raced and improving so I'll go with them. If either improves again they should leapfrog the consistent ones who have been running the same races for a while. I don't have a solid 3rd so going with 9-Bench Light 7-2 who gets a big class drop.
8-Wanstead Gardens 5-1
1-Son Of War 8-1
9-Bench Light 7-2
Race 6
Some question marks with the trainer change on 1-Taris 2-1 but if she runs her last race she wins by 5+lengths.And then the obvious next two are 7-Stonetastic and 10-Jojo Warrior both 4-1.
1-Taris 2-1
7-Stonetastic 4-1
10-Jojo Warrior 4-1
Race 7
Playing assumptions here with 1-Patriots Rule 15-1 but price justifies it.Last race is arguably the best race anyone in here has ever run. It was on synth at 7f though.That said he was closing fast on a very speed favoring track into a slow pace.The race before that he was also coming fast late against one of the favorites in this race.This horse can win and is 15-1.12-Talco 10-1 could be best at a mile and three straight 1 1/8 races may have soured public opinion enough to get a big price.Kind of sucks that these two horses have maybe the 2 lowest rated jocks in the race but they say it's 95% horse then everything else.At big prices could just bet both or add a 3rd to ex box.
1-Patriots Rule 15-1
12-Talco 10-1
Race 8
Both 7f Graded Stakes could be very chalky with Taris and Shared Belief.This one Baffert sends out a team of 4 to try and upend Shared Belief.Of the Bafferts I don't like Midnite Hawk. It would be 5-Pimpernel 10- , 3-Indianapolis 6-1 , and 2-Chitu 4-1.Then a saver with Shared Belief on top of those 3 if you want.
5-Pimpernel 10-1
3-Indianapolis 6-1
2-Chitu 4-1
Race 9
The third of 3 impossible turf races. Again I'll take a leap of faith that 3-Dea 12-1 will improve dramatically in 2nd start getting big jock upgrade and going long on turf after 1st start synth sprint prep.Same with 1-Rue de Cry 12-1 who comes out of the same race but without a jock upgrade although not many would be an upgrade from Talamo.Not sure yet on 3rd unless 14-Autumn Flower 12-1 gets in. Then it would be a 3 horse 12-1 box.
3-Dea 12-1
1-Rue de Cry 12-1
14-Autumn Flower 12-1