Originally Posted by
mikemca
Saturday
Saratoga
Race 1
3-Touching My Toes 5-1 would be a bet at the ML but have a feeling she is going to take some money. Should be among the pace setters during a modest pace and Jose Ortiz is one of the best on frontrunners in dirt sprints. Linda Rice is decent of this type of break(6 months) .
Race 2
Not sure there are any prices to find this race. 3-Utopian 5-1 and 1A-Tertadrachm 3-1 haven't seen a field this weak in a long long time. Would say it's between them imo and being the higher price Utopian would be the bet unless prices flip flop. Or maybe just box the two in exacta trying to beat the ml fave.
Race 3
6-David Rocks 7-2 keeps climbing the ladder after an impressive win 2 1/2 weeks ago. Don't see many options outside the two favorites so landed on this guy at 3rd on ml. If really feel like gambling 1-Ganador 30-1 ran one of his best races in the 6 year olds 46 race career last out and now gets wheeled back in 13 days. Has races waaaaay back that could win this and could do worse than oppose two favorites that don't like to win with a horse that might pay $90-$100.
Race 4
Two prices got my attention this race 3-Scamper 10-1 and 9-Swaggy 12-1 both trying 5 1/2 furlongs for the first time.
Race 5
Asmussen hardly ever works his horses work fast so I'm scared of 6-Royal Saint 4-1 but if 2-Instructor Kunu 10-1 can run at Saratoga like he did at Parx a couple times then he is a likely winner at double digits which is too hard to pass up.
Race 6
Good race to bet against at least the 2nd ml choice Zero Hour who will get support based off 1.4 million purchase price but he is a dirt horse. The only reason Casse has him here is because they don't card 2 turn msw races on dirt for 2 year olds and this guy is a dirt router. 2-1 fave Life Imitates Art's most successful sib Transparent was also a very fast dirt router. So I'm going 4 deep against them with 3-Conscious Decision 10-1 , 4-Hunter O'Riley 15-1 , 8-Space Mountain , and 9-Isotherm 8-1. Preference would be 4-8-9-3. Space Mountain is similar to faves in that best sib Ride On Curlin was dirt router. O'Riley is wildcard as sire is still a bit young , first foal from dam , but J Sharp is sharp with his turf horses and capable going long at 1st asking.
Race 7
While I agree 1-Something Extra 5-2 and 2-Shore Runner 2-1 are deserving favorites , I strongly disagree that 6-Havelock is 30-1 vs this field. When he gets a pace to run at he can beat anyone. The biggest underlay imo is 7-2 on Go Blue Or Go Home who only runs good at Woodbine and somewhat Presque Isle. Ideal scenario would be one of the faves scratch so the bet against horse takes more money. Castellano gets back on 4-Spring To The Sky 8-1 and could win with his good races. I envision Something Extra and Spring To The Sky dueling for the win with Shore Runner and Havelock trying to run them down. If I were to drop someone it would be Shore Runner.1-4-6-2
Race 8
If you're going to beat the Pletcher juvenile juggernuat why not do it with a horse sired by his former star Uncle Mo? Al Stall will try with 3-Forevamo 6-1 who is training well and also a half to Breeder's Cup winning sprinter Musical Romance. W Ward has 10-Sheikh Of Sheikhs 5-1 who is half to G2 winner Conquest Two Step sired by G1 winning sprinter Discreetly Mine. Those 2 are perfectly bred to be sprinting on dirt. 3-10-1
Race 9
Pretty even race , I'll try 2-Smooth Daddy 8-1 with Junior up as he is one of my favorite jocks routing and he seems better than most at milking a horse on the lead which is how I'm hoping this race goes.
Race 10
The whole reason I capped this card instead of just Pac Classic Day at Del Mar is 6-Include Betty 8-1. I think she is the most likely winner on a fair track at a huge price for a horse with that distinction. She has excuses for just about all her losses especially the last 2 which bookend her win 2 back in the G1 Mother Goose. She has been rallying on severe speed favoring tracks and still making up 14 lengths last out and 8 lengths into a slow pace on a severe speed favoring track 3 back. So yeah , I like Include Betty.
Race 11
I'm guessing the plan was a dirt sprint to get 8-Aimone 10-1 fit in career debut and then something went wrong before they could get her on turf as a 2 year old. Now they try the same plan a year later with dirt sprint 2 1/2 weeks ago to get her fit for this turf route. This is what she is bred to do.
Del Mar
Race 1
Firster 4-Dream Team 2-1 is going to take all the money as a 1 million dollar buy for Baffert/Tabor,Magnier,Smith and sibling to a bunch of good horses. Could just pass the race or go with the "other" Baffert 1-Waymond Boyd 12-1 making 2nd career start. Probably learned a lot in debut breaking slow and then running inside horses down the stretch.
Race 2
Admittedly I got stuck on this race and just settled on 8-Sea Preacher 6-1. Del Mar has been a concrete super speedway lately so early speed or lose.
Race 3
2-Another House 4-1 made a big middle move into a very fast pace on the dull closer friendly Laurel turf course and then flattened out in debut. Gary Stevens and a more patient ride gets this one home in front at hopefully 6 or 8-1.
Race 4
If the first couple races appear to give closers a chance then there is money to be made betting closers before the public reacts. 5-Kobe's Back 3-1 is 3rd choice in this 5 horse Grade 2 with two horses less than 2-1 on ML. If those 2 take all the money I have to think you get more than 3-1 here. If Once again the track is all front runners then 4-Indexical 5-1 is the bet along with 1-Turnover 8-1 and 2-Appealing Tale 8-5 in exactas.
Race 5
If Got Even wins then you can be sure speed is king. This horse has had many many races as lone speed on favoring tracks and still lost. So if he wins then forget anything but leaders. That leads me to 3-Airfoil 10-1 who is a closer but going sprint to route may keep him a little closer to the pace. Curiously this horse has been sprinting the majority of the time while every single race looking like he wants more ground . Getting going when the race was already decided. If it's all speed then Got Even is the leader but I just can't take him so 9-J Serino 12-1 is my horse. He may be anyway fresh off maiden win as he is the one to take over once Got Even falters. 3-9-2 or 9-3-2
Race 6
This is a tough race . I like 2-Southern Freedom 8-1 but that is based off Golden Gate form. That doesn't seem to translate to the big tracks like Del Mar and SA so it's a tough gauge. The fave is tuck furthest outside which is a big deal at Del Mar usually. 9-Play Hard To Get 12-1 is one stall inside him but being a deep closer it won't matter much when Nakatani drops back from the break. Undecided on the 3rd horse for exacta between 1-Maltes 15-1 and 6-Boyett 5-1. Either 2-9-1 or 2-9-6 box.
Race 7
I just don't know this race beside 1-Tiz A Tommy Town 3-1 so for the first time through 18 races I take the fave.
Race 8
This race has everything, do you go with the speed figs , class , breeding , or pace figure projection. As with most turf races the class horses are the favorites. The speed figure play is 5-Little Jerry 12-1. The Breeding horse trying turf after 24 dirt/synth races is 7-Lideris 20-1. I am almost always a pace figure projection combined with speed figures. Which is 3-Flamboyant 20-1. Pace figs indicate speed figs are within range of winning with progression pace figs indicate should happen with more distance and a pace to run into. 3-4-5
Race 9
The one thing I am definite on is Beholder should not be the favorite of the Pacific Classic . Even on a speed favoring highway Bayern would be a tough nut for her to crack on the lead. She has never gone this far and pretty sure she has never faced Colts. Even if it's extreme speed favoring I'll go with 3-Bayern 6-1 , 7-Catch A Flight 9-2 , and 10-Midnight Storm 20-1 with the 10 being the W/P bet if any. Any other type of surface I want 5-Red Vine 6-1 who has been rock solid ever since moving to dirt after 13 turf races 4 starts back. Again pace figures projection of speed figures give him maybe the best chance to win out of everyone on a fair surface. I'll just go with 5 unless surface makes me box 3-7-10.
Race 10
5-K Thirty Eight 12-1 may get run down late or may not take to the turf but looks to be on a clear easy lead and at the price it's worth hoping turf is just fine with him.
Race 11
5-Mike Man's Gold 10-1 just because. Also V Belvoir is underrated trainer with many good angles.
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