[Thunderground]

And if Nyquist ran in that SA Derby as well? lol



Exaggerator at this point is second in the early KY Derby odds at 9/2, Nyquist is the 3/1 favorite.

So Exaggerator, in a field dominated by closers, is considered the best closer by the betting public at this point.
But part of that was set up by Danzing Candy's assist in the mud.

[str]

And if Nyquist ran in that SA Derby as well? lol



Exaggerator at this point is second in the early KY Derby odds at 9/2, Nyquist is the 3/1 favorite.

So Exaggerator, in a field dominated by closers, is considered the best closer by the betting public at this point.
But part of that was set up by Danzing Candy's assist in the mud.

I will give Nyquist a hard look but I have watched the Cal. horses completely dominate lately. Why would I think this year would be any different? What makes Nyquist better? Darn if I know.

Because of the price, I would not hesitate to play Danging Candy against Nyquist in a SA Derby rerun.

Why did O'Neill send this horse east? Did he have others out west that didn't work out?

[Thunderground]

I don't know why he send Nyquist east. He beat then-early-Derby favorite Mohaymen in Florida, in a 1 million dollar race on 4/2, so a week before the SA Derby on 4/9 for the same purse money. Did he want the extra week rest?

Nyquist is seven out of seven. But five races were as 2 yo. He's only raced twice after the Breeder's Cup.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...600&registry=T'

[str]

I don't know why he send Nyquist east. He beat then-early-Derby favorite Mohaymen in Florida, in a 1 million dollar race on 4/2, so a week before the SA Derby on 4/9 for the same purse money. Did he want the extra week rest?

Nyquist is seven out of seven. But five races were as 2 yo. He's only raced twice after the Breeder's Cup.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...600&registry=T'

I can't believe he felt he needed an extra week with past SA Derby runners doing well for him on Derby day.

There IS a reason. That could be the key to all this.

What is Nyquist's dosage?

[Easy-Rider 66]

I don't know why he send Nyquist east. He beat then-early-Derby favorite Mohaymen in Florida, in a 1 million dollar race on 4/2, so a week before the SA Derby on 4/9 for the same purse money. Did he want the extra week rest?

Nyquist is seven out of seven. But five races were as 2 yo. He's only raced twice after the Breeder's Cup.

http://www.equibase.com/profiles/Res...600&registry=T'

I can't believe he felt he needed an extra week with past SA Derby runners doing well for him on Derby day.

There IS a reason. That could be the key to all this.

What is Nyquist's dosage?

Nyquist will be running in the $1 million Florida Derby on April 2 instead of at home in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby on April 9. O'Neill and owner Paul Reddam insist that their decision is primarily based on the five weeks between the Florida race and the Kentucky Derby. Not taking the rest of us for idiots, they add that the $1 million winner's bonus on the table at Gulfstream for a Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old sales grad like Nyquist makes the choice a no-brainer

[Thunderground]

An extra one million. I wouldn't say no to that...

Nyquist DI is 7.00, CD 1.00
http://www.pedigreequery.com/nyquist

[str]

Nyquist will be running in the $1 million Florida Derby on April 2 instead of at home in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby on April 9. O'Neill and owner Paul Reddam insist that their decision is primarily based on the five weeks between the Florida race and the Kentucky Derby. Not taking the rest of us for idiots, they add that the $1 million winner's bonus on the table at Gulfstream for a Fasig-Tipton 2-year-old sales grad like Nyquist makes the choice a no-brainer

Thanks Easy !

IMO the answers are in reverse though. I am not buying the extra week stuff. One horse in a hundred truly needs that extra week. If this is that one, I am wrong. I am buying the money incentive and the extra week is icing IMO. Just a hunch though.

[str]

An extra one million. I wouldn't say no to that...

Nyquist DI is 7.00, CD 1.00
http://www.pedigreequery.com/nyquist

Yep. That's what I thought.

But man oh man is there a ton of mud in that pedigree from both sides.

Good ole Cyane and Hot Slippers. They bring back memories.

[Boner_18]

Str great thread, thanks for sticking with it. I didn't have time to read all the way though so apologies if this was asked and answered already. What should be the annual cost of training, feeding, stabling, etc. of a HIGH level horse, meaning high allowance, low stakes type contender. Also, I realize this is market specific so let's just say an expensive market like NYRA. Ballpark, i understand these things are individualized to the entry fees, licensing authorities, particular vet bills etc.. 35k? 50k? 75k?

[str]

Str great thread, thanks for sticking with it. I didn't have time to read all the way though so apologies if this was asked and answered already. What should be the annual cost of training, feeding, stabling, etc. of a HIGH level horse, meaning high allowance, low stakes type contender. Also, I realize this is market specific so let's just say an expensive market like NYRA. Ballpark, i understand these things are individualized to the entry fees, licensing authorities, particular vet bills etc.. 35k? 50k? 75k?

Hi Boner
Always been a fan of your responses in pt. Keep up the good work.
And thanks for the compliment. Thread is almost 5 years old. Who knew but I enjoy helping when I can.
I will double check with Tony D. In NY When we talk . Should be soon , but a Belmont / Saratoga horse up there with a name trainer will be about 5k per month for all but out of town vanning, or flying the horse around the country, vet bills and 10%s . So adding all but 10% of any purses or flying the horse around I think 75k a year is about right.
The per day rate is typically the same for a stakes horse or a maiden.
Jockey fees will also add up but that is taken directly out of the owners account the day they race. The trainer will bill monthly.
Hope that helps. Let me know if you have any follow up or if I can help with anything else.

[JBEX]

hey str

bill mott won with a 2yo firster at churchill today at 10-1..race was 4½ furlongs..he obviously doesn't win with many firsters
cause more than likely he's not trying to and generally speaking likes to start them when they're older.. do you think just the fact that he would start a horse this early on might hint at the fact that he might be live? would have to believe he's calling the shots with the horses he trains as far as to when they start their careers..what do you think ?

[Easy-Rider 66]

Pletcher spoke to the fact that it appears that the way the Derby horses drew, the majority of the “speed” horses – which would include Outwork – have drawn outside in the 20-horse field.
“It looks like the speed is on the outside and most of the deep closers have drawn inside,” the trainer said. “That certainly is something that has to be considered coming up to the race. I’ll have my thoughts on what I think should be our race strategy and my riders (Javier Castellano on Destin and John Velazquez on Outwork) will have their ideas, too
.


Hey STR. Hope things are well. Any thoughts on the above statement form Pletcher, and how the race may unfold with the speed on the outside and deep closers nearer the rail. Thx.

[str]

hey str

bill mott won with a 2yo firster at churchill today at 10-1..race was 4½ furlongs..he obviously doesn't win with many firsters
cause more than likely he's not trying to and generally speaking likes to start them when they're older.. do you think just the fact that he would start a horse this early on might hint at the fact that he might be live? would have to believe he's calling the shots with the horses he trains as far as to when they start their careers..what do you think ?

It must have been the perfect storm to run a baby in May.

Knees were closed and he was 100% perfect all the way through training. ( It's a maturity thing, typically about 24 months from birth. Race them beforehand and they almost always chip or slab a knee. Usually catastrophic to the horses long term career.)

Horse was probably bred to run 6-7 furlongs max.

By a sire that throws 2yr. old winners

Probably small, athletic and smart.

Etc, Etc.

No way he thought the horse had long term goals like racing as a 4 yr. old and winning the Travers.

That is not how you do that typically.

No knock that he raced and won, it's just another way to manage a horse, and not his typical way of developing a horse for the future.

Obviously a complete guess but not the trainers mindset part. That is correct.

Now if all the other stuff is wrong, and I am speaking blindly,he won't run for at least 3 more months. That might say that he feels the horse can win the Hopeful and keep going. Maybe he runs in the prep for that. Forget the name of that race early at Saratoga.

[str]

Pletcher spoke to the fact that it appears that the way the Derby horses drew, the majority of the “speed” horses – which would include Outwork – have drawn outside in the 20-horse field.
“It looks like the speed is on the outside and most of the deep closers have drawn inside,” the trainer said. “That certainly is something that has to be considered coming up to the race. I’ll have my thoughts on what I think should be our race strategy and my riders (Javier Castellano on Destin and John Velazquez on Outwork) will have their ideas, too
.


Hey STR. Hope things are well. Any thoughts on the above statement form Pletcher, and how the race may unfold with the speed on the outside and deep closers nearer the rail. Thx.

Hi Easy.

With all the speed outside and 5/16's to the 1st turn, this race is very similar to a 6F sprint on a mile track. They have all day to get to the turn.
I feel this is hardest on the inside most speed and easiest on the outside most speed. And the middle speeds have to commit or not early most times. Just like the box going short.

The 20 horse , with the break and all things being equal can control the pace or lack thereof. If all the speeds break and run true to form, and they rarely do, the 20 horse will control when and how hard the other riders press, if they want to be on or right with the lead. If the 20 is 1 1/2 lengths in front when they go by the wire the 1st time, he can lean in and make them commit or take back going into the 1st turn. A huge advantage for him if he has the composure to take advantage of it.

What Todd said was lip service and a sound bite, and I totally get that. I used to do it all the time, all be it in a much lesser venue. But still, he basically said nothing but it sounded like he said plenty. So the outside horses slide over and the inside horses get shuffled back. It happens all the time.
What it makes really tough for the bettor is to play a deep closer and have any real theory as to if they get a trip or they are on heals all the way around the 1st turn. It makes it tough to bet a deep closer that is not a bomb because you are totally guessing as to any trip. Play a 6-1 that gets a terrible trip and you are upset. Play a 20-1 that gets no trip and you say, oh well. Big, big, difference in my mind.

Now all of the sudden, the 20 might not need the lead to run his race. If he was inside, it would be a must. Now maybe he lays 2nd or 3rd with a clean right eye while the middle and inside speeds are all in one another's faces. So see what I mean about the box?

I will be back tomorrow and go through the field before I go to the track and meet my buddies. Got to say though, I don't know how it is possible to like a deep closer that is not a bomb, or a Nyquist who might get a trip but lord knows how when you see it on paper. A horse that can close but can move around the far turn without 15 to make up is always a horse to like on Ky. Derby day. That or a speed horse. Unless there is a ton of early speed , but that doesn't seem to be the case this year.

Talk to you tomorrow.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Thx for the info. Look forward to your take on the Derby field tomorrow.

[str]

The more I look at this race, the more it looks the same.

So I stick with what I have already said. I see no reason , in a race that I always play bombs away, to try and fit a low priced closer on a ticket. I also see no reason to play a favorite.

I look for Danzing Candy, if he stays calm, to dictate much of this race. A big if, so watching him warm up or in the paddock will help with how strong a choice that is. He has the perfect post for what he wants to try and accomplish. So he is on the ticket.
I am hopeful that DC and Outwork don't hook up and allow Nyquist to sit 3rd by himself behind a duel. If that happens, no excuses for the favorite.

Stalkers have historically been a real solid play in the Derby. So using Gun Runner,My Man Sam and Destin, should come as no shock.

Of the closers, it's tough to toss Exaggerator because I know both the rider and the trainer from years past and a part of me is rooting for them. More importantly, the horse can move earlier if Kent feels the pace is crawling along, while most of the other deep closers cannot in all probability. If I respect Gun Runner I can do the same with Mo Tom, at his price. Brody's Cause will be wide, but should have no traffic problems with others near him clearing away. Suddenbreakingnews is consistent and another price.
So my triple or super or whatever style ticket will be something like D.C. and Gun Runner on top, with the others mentioned underneath and a smaller cost ticket with DC and GR 2nd and the others on top and below.

Will also take a swing at a pick 3 or 4 using DC only unless GR is a decent price.

As always, I take bombs away shots in these type races. Over the years it has served me well. I don't win often. But when I do, it's the real deal.

Good luck everybody.

Enjoy the day at the races !

[cutchemist42]

Great writeup STR!!

[JBEX]

It must have been the perfect storm to run a baby in May.

Knees were closed and he was 100% perfect all the way through training. ( It's a maturity thing, typically about 24 months from birth. Race them beforehand and they almost always chip or slab a knee. Usually catastrophic to the horses long term career.)

Horse was probably bred to run 6-7 furlongs max.

By a sire that throws 2yr. old winners

Probably small, athletic and smart.

Etc, Etc.

No way he thought the horse had long term goals like racing as a 4 yr. old and winning the Travers.

That is not how you do that typically.

No knock that he raced and won, it's just another way to manage a horse, and not his typical way of developing a horse for the future.

Obviously a complete guess but not the trainers mindset part. That is correct.

Now if all the other stuff is wrong, and I am speaking blindly,he won't run for at least 3 more months. That might say that he feels the horse can win the Hopeful and keep going. Maybe he runs in the prep for that. Forget the name of that race early at Saratoga.

boy you nailed it really well str.. If I had done a full job capping the race such as looking through my "sire ratings" book might have felt differently about it going in rather than dismissing a mott firster automatically.. The sire/damsire combination
is top 10% win first out bloodlines ....They have another category in there called precocity index.. In order to receive a 2+ rating 35% or more of a sires 2yo runners must break their maiden as a juvenile.. I'm guessing only about 10% of active sires achieve that rating scanning through the book.. Both sire and damsire are 2+ !!

The races you're talking about at saratoga (didn't say it's a filly) are the schuylerville at 6 furlongs opening day 7/23 and ending with the spinaway last day (or close to it) of the meet at 7 furlongs ..have a hunch if she's doing well ,as you said, those races might be the targets.. thanks again

[Thunderground]

Does the Derby still offer the same opportunity with the new points system? The favorite wins every time, and yesterday the first three or four horses finished in order of the odds. NBC even mapped out the race exactly as it happened... Is this coincidence or has the point system forever wiped out the days of the 564K superfecta payout?

[str]

Does the Derby still offer the same opportunity with the new points system? The favorite wins every time, and yesterday the first three or four horses finished in order of the odds. NBC even mapped out the race exactly as it happened... Is this coincidence or has the point system forever wiped out the days of the 564K superfecta payout?

I don't know if the points system has done that or not. The last three winners being favorites and winning, all came from Calif., all were dominate along the way, and all were the best horse going in , and all laid 2,3,4, with nice stalking close up trips and overcame virtually no adversity. Sounds like a blueprint moving forward, doesn't it?

One thing that is missing these days is all the cheap speed that almost collapsed on que and clogged up the inside for the closers. That is gone and with it, terrible trouble to the extent we used to see. Or so it seems. We will just have to wait and see but the early line for next year will be calif. horses who ran well in the SA derby or other calif. races. THAT, seems to be the new normal.
Sadly, the Wood is almost a throw out race these days. I never thought I would ever be saying that.

Here is a recap of the Derby IMO.

I will keep it brief but anyone please fell free to ask away if you have a question.

The track played all day long on dirt, as a heavily speed favoring strip. Speed won all day, from everywhere. Not a rail, Not outside speed, just speed. But it was 3 stars out of 3 for a speed bias. This is not opinion, it is simply the way it was.

The winner had speed and laid 2nd with a great trip which was easy to see if you were trying to imagine a winning trip. No shock there. The early fractions were fast early but they were all day long and speed held. I thought he might lay 3rd, but Outwork didn't run early.

Exaggerator closed well which says a lot because few did all day.

Gun Runner ran as well as he was capable of running. Gave it everything he had.

Mohaymen closed somewhat as well. Never really caught my eye because he was never going to win.

Suddenbreakingnews also ran well and closed on a track where few did.

But too me, the biggest thing was the way the track played. Not taking anything away from the winner, but the track being what it was sure did not hurt his chances. I don't want to sound as if I am making light of his win though.
He dominated from the gate to the wire. He ran a great race.

[Thunderground]

I don't know if the points system has done that or not. The last three winners being favorites and winning, all came from Calif., all were dominate along the way, and all were the best horse going in , and all laid 2,3,4, with nice stalking close up trips and overcame virtually no adversity. Sounds like a blueprint moving forward, doesn't it?

One thing that is missing these days is all the cheap speed that almost collapsed on que and clogged up the inside for the closers. That is gone and with it, terrible trouble to the extent we used to see.

No points to be earned in the sprint stakes. Too bad. Lowers the chances of the closers and their spectacular runs through traffic.

All the emphasis now is on earning Derby points, and there are zero points given to sprint stakes. So trainers, not wanting to waste their time running for no points, naturally keep their Derby hopefuls away from the sprints. - See more at: http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse....yy9k5E09.dpuf

[str]

Looks like plenty of rain for the Preakness.

That means track maintenance is front and center.

Watching results from Thursday and Friday will help understand what is going on with the track and if a bias exists.

Lets see what takes place starting tomorrow.

I will update after I read the charts from Thursday.

[str]

Looks like plenty of rain for the Preakness.

That means track maintenance is front and center.

Watching results from Thursday and Friday will help understand what is going on with the track and if a bias exists.

Lets see what takes place starting tomorrow.

I will update after I read the charts from Thursday.

Today the rail was great.

They obviously graded on Wednesday as anticipated.

No need to grade tomorrow if they do what they always used to do, but I am not there so I can't verify.

Typically , they will let the grading go for tomorrow and it will be slightly inside or even at best for tomorrows card, ( no guarantee but it makes sense) and they would typically grade again Friday evening before the 1.25 inches of steady rain we should get starting by 8am on Saturday.

That, if indeed they do this, will have it a great rail for Preakness day. Not just speed, but all horses that are inside , while compromising those horses that get a 3 path and out trip.

Will continue to monitor and let you know.

[JBEX]

hey str... nice work on the way the track may play today.. considering Kent rose to stardom on the Maryland circuit do you think he might be more aware than others where he should be on the track factoring in the sloppy conditions...Or by that late in the card everyone will know how it's playing and no tactical edge ? Exaggerator a versatile horse and wouldn't be surprised if Kent stays closer to the pace so there is less potential for trouble by passing fewer horses and especially if it seems to be playing towards speed

[str]

Today the rail was great.

They obviously graded on Wednesday as anticipated.

No need to grade tomorrow if they do what they always used to do, but I am not there so I can't verify.

Typically , they will let the grading go for tomorrow and it will be slightly inside or even at best for tomorrows card, ( no guarantee but it makes sense) and they would typically grade again Friday evening before the 1.25 inches of steady rain we should get starting by 8am on Saturday.

That, if indeed they do this, will have it a great rail for Preakness day. Not just speed, but all horses that are inside , while compromising those horses that get a 3 path and out trip.

Will continue to monitor and let you know.

Without watching any races and just looking at the charts, the rail was very solid on Friday so it seems. No just speed. Rail. Meaning inside trips prospered and outside trips struggled.

Evidence was a 7-5 wide and last in the 1st, a 1-5 wide and a bad 3rd in the 3rd, a 3-5 wide and third in the 5th, a 50-1 shot finishing 3rd from the 2 path in the 7th, a 25-1 finishing 3rd up the rail in the 9th,and a rail trip for the 50-1 who ran 2nd in the Black Eyed Susan ( winner also near the rail for most of the race). So that takes us to today.

I have no idea if they graded or not last evening. But I would guess that they did. It will show early enough for me to see, or not.

My suggestion would be to keep a close eye on the trips. Not the speed, and not where they run through the stretch. I've had so many people say, he was wide because the horse angles out for the last quarter or 1/8th and wins in the 5 path. But they discount the rail run for 1:35 of a 1:48 race. That is how you fool yourself into a false reading of what the track actually is IMO.

While plenty of people here fully get this, for anyone that is wanting to better understand it, you need to be aware that a rail bias is not the same as a speed bias. Totally different. IMO Derby day at CD was speed. That's it. Not rail. Just speed. Too me, it didn't matter where you were on the track as long as you were up close. That was my read. Others might see it differently.
The last 2 days at Pimlico, I see it as rail. IMO you needed to be in the 1-2 path to have the best chance. If they graded last evening, that theme should be in play today solidly. If not, yes, speed will have some advantage because it is sloppy. Speed almost always has an advantage in the slop no matter where it is.

And yes, Pimlico has a tendency to favor speed in the slop more than Laurel does. Most tracks do I guess. But that is a whole different discussion that doesn't matter today.

Tough for me to try and comment on the race without knowing vital, IMO, info as to the track bias, if any. But in all probability I will try and beat the favorite . I almost always try and do that in the triple crown , BC, and big races.

So , best of luck with your plays and I hope this stuff has helped at least someone.

[str]

hey str... nice work on the way the track may play today.. considering Kent rose to stardom on the Maryland circuit do you think he might be more aware than others where he should be on the track factoring in the sloppy conditions...Or by that late in the card everyone will know how it's playing and no tactical edge ? Exaggerator a versatile horse and wouldn't be surprised if Kent stays closer to the pace so there is less potential for trouble by passing fewer horses and especially if it seems to be playing towards speed

Yes. He knows that track with his eyes closed.
You know what JBEX. I as never surprised when a jock had no clue what was really going on with a bias or not. I really am sure that many many people see the same thing but interpret it differently. Soooo many people IMO see a rail and swear it's speed. But who knows, maybe I am wrong and they are right. I watch every horse in a race. Not just the speed. By doing so, that allows me to get a feel from all perspectives. I am sure that most jocks do not. I know for a fact they didn't when I was around. But it's been 15 years, so maybe they have caught up some, I don't know.

It's kind of like watching the football and not the line play and all aspects of the team when a game is watched. Most people watch the ball. Nothing wrong with that but it restricts you from having a full understanding of what's actually happening IMO.

Don't know about trying to have Exaggerator stay closer. Seems as though there is pace in the race and I have never been a big fan of altering a horses comfort zone. Doesn't seem to work very often but again, maybe that's just me.
I do think a bias, if one exists, will play a role in the outcome. It usually does. But we will just have to wait and see what's going on.
Heading to Laurel later with my friends to bet today's card.

[Thunderground]

Yes. He knows that track with his eyes closed.

It showed. Hard to imagine he wouldn't have given Nyquist a better ride as well. Kent mentioned after the race that it was important to scrape the paint. Nyquist was way out in the four or five path in the first turn. Remember that earlier race by Danzing Candy, where he lost his head in the mud, even though he had already learned how to relax? This looked just like if for Nyquist. How do you tell in such a case if it's the jockey who could have done a better job or if there was just nothing the rider could do about it, because the horse had made up his mind?

[str]

After watching every race on Sat. the rail was once again the place to be IMO. Evidence was shown all along the way.

1st race was the 4 rail horses completing the super.

3rd race, the 1-5 shot was 4-5 wide the entire trip and finished 2nd. He ran a great race considering his position. 9 horse broke and angled to the rail and paid 14 something.

5th race the 7-5 undefeated 7 for 7 on the off track favorite was very wide throughout and was off the board. Extra credit is due for the winner who actually was in the 3 path for much of the race. A great race for him. He was followed by a 15-1 and 54-1, both with rail trips, to complete the triple.

7th race was not a rail so it seemed. Nobody was real wide that fired but horses came from the 2,3,and 4 path. That race got my attention because of the Preakness later on. Is the rail starting to diminish?

9th race the big favorite won with the rail which told me little. The race was no help IMO as to what might lie ahead.

11th race was the 1st 4 choices but it did show tat the inside was fine IMO because of the race the 9-1 shot ran finishing 2nd.

The Preakness winner was on the rail for most of the race and the 17-1 shot that ran 2nd never left the fence. Constructing that race on paper prior to it running worked out perfectly. 1 dropped back to next to last, stayed on the rail. 2 3 and 4 showed speed and Kent went right to the rail. So a rail rail for 4/5ths of the race was a ticket that made sense. That worked out well as Nyquist was 3-4 wide throughout. It cost him. Stratavari ran a nice race IMO with a tough trip on that track. Too bad for me that he held off Lani for 4th . Cost me the super as we had a 5-1,3,6. Oh well.

13th race was wire to wire on the fence breaking from far outside but clearing easily. The 2nd and 3rd horses were rail as well but that was a tough ticket to construct. Too tough for me but congrats to anyone that did.
So IMO the rail was certainly in play again Saturday. Maybe others did not see it that way . And that's fine. Maybe they are right and I am wrong.

Either way, I hope that this discussion about the Pimlico and track maintenance has helped somebody have a better understanding of what takes place when the horses are not running and more importantly, WHY it takes place. I cannot speak for all the tracks but I can speak for Md. where I spent darn near 3 decades everyday.

So good luck with your plays going forward. And when the ones and twos or 9's and 10's appear often in the results, take a peak at the replays before writing it off as a coincidence. There's a good chance it's not.

[str]

It showed. Hard to imagine he wouldn't have given Nyquist a better ride as well. Kent mentioned after the race that it was important to scrape the paint. Nyquist was way out in the four or five path in the first turn. Remember that earlier race by Danzing Candy, where he lost his head in the mud, even though he had already learned how to relax? This looked just like if for Nyquist. How do you tell in such a case if it's the jockey who could have done a better job or if there was just nothing the rider could do about it, because the horse had made up his mind?

Apparently the rider did exactly what he was told to do. IMO the connections were more worried about getting pinned and getting mud in his face, then they were with the track and the way it was, and had been playing for the last 3 days.
I don't think the fractions were the problem as some have suggested. I also don't think the " duel" was a problem because Nyquist seemed to be there comfortably. IMO what DID matter was the 3-4 path. It was a disadvantage all day and since Thursday. Tons of evidence to support that. Ultimately, the 2 horses that were on the rail for the longest periods of time ran 1-2.
IMO Nyquist ran a fine race . They tried to mimic his Derby race. But in doing so, they ran against a bias IMO and those that ran WITH that bias, beat him. That's my take. However, to truly see if Nyquist was ok and comfortable down the backside and out of the 1st turn, I would need to see a head on, which I have not seen. That would confirm your thought or not.

Q. How do you tell in such a case if it's the jockey who could have done a better job or if there was just nothing the rider could do about it, because the horse had made up his mind?

A. It takes watching a lot of reruns and races. The best way to describe it is to look into the horses eyes and watch his face and the bit in his mouth. No better example than Danzing Candy in his last two races, especially the SA Derby. It's written all over the horses face. And, the jock is over restraining if there is such a phrase. Watch the horses ears. Ears up, or one ear moving front and back, the horse is relaxed, calm and waiting for instruction from the rider. Ears laid well back, eyes bugged out, mouth open fighting the bit or trying to grab it and take control away from the rider, pumped up and loaded for bear. Watch the reins. Very tight , not so relaxed. Some slack in them down the backside, relaxed and waiting to accelerate.
Try spotting this while a race is running live. You eventually will, and it will feel light a light went on. From that point forward, you will only get better at it. It won't take that long. But do be patient.

[Thunderground]

Q. How do you tell in such a case if it's the jockey who could have done a better job or if there was just nothing the rider could do about it, because the horse had made up his mind?

A. It takes watching a lot of reruns and races. The best way to describe it is to look into the horses eyes and watch his face and the bit in his mouth. No better example than Danzing Candy in his last two races, especially the SA Derby. It's written all over the horses face. And, the jock is over restraining if there is such a phrase. Watch the horses ears. Ears up, or one ear moving front and back, the horse is relaxed, calm and waiting for instruction from the rider. Ears laid well back, eyes bugged out, mouth open fighting the bit or trying to grab it and take control away from the rider, pumped up and loaded for bear. Watch the reins. Very tight , not so relaxed. Some slack in them down the backside, relaxed and waiting to accelerate.
Try spotting this while a race is running live. You eventually will, and it will feel light a light went on. From that point forward, you will only get better at it. It won't take that long. But do be patient.

Thanks str. How close to the face do I have to be? Close enough to see the eyes in a race? I remember having to learn to see the change of leads. At first I couldn't see it. Now I often find myself telling the horse to change leads; in no uncertain terms. lol. I'll start studying this aspect.

[str]

Thanks str. How close to the face do I have to be? Close enough to see the eyes in a race? I remember having to learn to see the change of leads. At first I couldn't see it. Now I often find myself telling the horse to change leads; in no uncertain terms. lol. I'll start studying this aspect.

Once the camera closes in on the leaders , like after 15 seconds of the race, you will be able to see enough. sometimes you can't see the eyes because of blks. It's a body language thing along with what I talked about. It just takes some time to get a feel for it. You'll get it.

[JBEX]

hey str

there is something that I have seen for decades on the toteboard and not understood so figured I'd give you a shot.. here's an example..final odds on the top 4 choices at delaware park R2 as follows ..

1-1 ...50% pool
8-5 ...37% pool
5-1 ...17% pool
6-1 ...14% pool

40-1 + ..2 horses figure 5% for both combined

my percentages are off the top of my head but sure within a point of the exact amount

shouldn't these add up to 100% and if not what am I missing ?


if anybody else knows feel free to chime in

[str]

hey str

there is something that I have seen for decades on the toteboard and not understood so figured I'd give you a shot.. here's an example..final odds on the top 4 choices at delaware park R2 as follows ..

1-1 ...50% pool
8-5 ...37% pool
5-1 ...17% pool
6-1 ...14% pool

40-1 + ..2 horses figure 5% for both combined

my percentages are off the top of my head but sure within a point of the exact amount

shouldn't these add up to 100% and if not what am I missing ?


if anybody else knows feel free to chime in

I think I remember seeing these somewhere, doubt it was Md. where I was most of the time, and Del. did not do it when I stabled there in the late 70's for the summer, but I think someone told me it was the gross totals factoring in to make it go over 100% not the net. In other words, before the takeout or something like that. So the takeout amounts would reduce the %'s down to equal 100%. That would make it around 117% =/-, depending where you are playing.
Pretty sure it was that, but if someone else knows for sure, please chime in.
Because I was training and betting was waaay down the list of my priorities, I really didn't care about it. And I don't recall this being displayed where I was back in the day at all , to my knowledge. Or maybe not until just before I left.
Sorry I can't give you a definitive answer. Hopefully someone else can.

[Thunderground]

I have that as part of my program, so will chip in.

The total percentage, of the combined odds, is different per track. For Belmont it may run from 120 to 128 percent, in prerace betting, and then after the race the final percentages settle around 120, or a little lower. That's because 5/2 (250) can be as high as 290, but will not show up on the tote board as 3/1 until it reaches 300. For a track like Turf Paradise the total prerace odds are often around 135.

Also, the odds are often manipulated around a big favorite. That is, a big favorite may show as 3/5 (60) on the tote board with the total percentage going up to 128 or 130. That means they're making room for that favorite to go to 4/5 (80). In other words, all the other odds are adjusted first before the big favorite moves. Once the favorite moves to 4/5, the total percentage suddenly drops to the 122 or 124 range. So the total percentage is not a constant at all in prerace betting.

If the tracks were to change to sports betting type of odds, +100, +270, +425, the total percentage could be kept constant, but with odds like 3/2 and 7/5 and 9/2 that's not going to happen.

[JBEX]

I have that as part of my program, so will chip in.

The total percentage, of the combined odds, is different per track. For Belmont it may run from 120 to 128 percent, in prerace betting, and then after the race the final percentages settle around 120, or a little lower. That's because 5/2 (250) can be as high as 290, but will not show up on the tote board as 3/1 until it reaches 300. For a track like Turf Paradise the total prerace odds are often around 135.

Also, the odds are often manipulated around a big favorite. That is, a big favorite may show as 3/5 (60) on the tote board with the total percentage going up to 128 or 130. That means they're making room for that favorite to go to 4/5 (80). In other words, all the other odds are adjusted first before the big favorite moves. Once the favorite moves to 4/5, the total percentage suddenly drops to the 122 or 124 range. So the total percentage is not a constant at all in prerace betting.

If the tracks were to change to sports betting type of odds, +100, +270, +425, the total percentage could be kept constant, but with odds like 3/2 and 7/5 and 9/2 that's not going to happen.

thanks thunderground but even at the lowest % range of each odds level still tallys well above 100% I believe.. Has to have something to do with the track take as str said but the math I don't get