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Thanks str.
I was looking forward to the BC a lot, like every year, but once it came around I just bet a couple of races. lol Just didn't like seeing horses flying late only to run out of track. Wouldn't a shorter stretch run shorten the space to benefit from changing lead legs? Remember that battle between Will Take Charge and Mucho Macho Man in the 2013 BC Classic? I wanted more of that. It's the BC. Gimme some photo finishes! lol
Q. so you would say for {he most part the only significance of the turf/dirt stat is a trainer taking a shot with a turf horse on the dirt..only exception would be a turf race at the right distance and time where the horse needs the work..there is no plan that the turf race will somehow benefit the horse next time out on the dirt..maybe like a shock to the system so that when the horse hits the dirt in his following start after the turf race he might react positively cause dirt is his preferred surface.would have guessed that might be a tactic but good to know that it's probably notOriginally Posted by JBEX
A. Sometimes dirt races at a distance do not go and a trainer is forced to look at turf, which always go. If they have a horse that has shown turf/dirt improvement, that makes it better still. If I had a horse that always ran well turf/dirt, then yes, I would consider it any time it came up, but I don't think I would skip a dirt race I fit in to run on the turf so I could come back on the dirt. Summer racing has smaller fields typically so in plenty of cases, the long dirt race might not have filled. A condition book on line for the track in question might lend more evidence of what the trainer was trying to do. Maybe try that.
Q. on another note I'm a little surprised that some trainers don't go in with the idea that a horse off a modest layoff (say 3 months)
might need a race to get in shape..guess it couldn't hurt to have a race under the belt .. but I think what you mean is that if you wanted to have him ready off gallops and works you could..realize we're talking in general here and each situation is different..these are both important handicapping points for me so definetly something I'd like to understand better
A. If you train for an owner and are off 3 months, not many are happy to watch the horse come back and be real short. At least not on purpose. Some are quite tough to get fit off time but just as many run great fresh, so it goes to the individual.
Honestly, if a horse is off 3 months and running less than a mile and an 1/8th, ,unless it is an a typical horse that gets little out of works, shame on the trainer for not having the horse fit enough. Now does that mean perfect? No. It will be that last 5-10% perfect next time in most cases, but it should be darn close.
Do exclude the very low claimers at places like C.T. where often times the horses are trained in a field and getting them fit is an affordability thing. For those, especially the 4 1/2 types, 3rd race back of the lay is a money maker up there and has been for decades. This is especially true with the low % trainers .
A long stretch is going to have riders sitting still longer than normal, thus, horses will be closer and duels will occur. Watching bull ring races, it is usually a 2 or maybe 3 horse race when they turn for home, whereas 5-6 can win it turning for home with a long stretch. It is what it is I guess. And yes, that means more running on the turn and the speed horse that doesn't switch leads has shorter to run. But then again, the were asked earlier also which means the left lead was used harder around the turn than normal. That should have that non switching speed horse shortening stride sooner than normal so I think it all shakes out in the end.
This Classic was not having a duel through the stretch because of AP not the track. They could have run it anywhere and that group was not going to sniff AP after the first half solo and comfortable. It was game over unless he did not respond when asked, which he did. They could have gone around again and it would not have mattered , as they say.
thanks str..appreciate you taking the time and your insight on these things.. if I'm going to continue asking you questions like these I might want to think about changing my avatar
That's it. 2 or 3 horses can win it versus 5 or 6. The 5 or 6 would be more interesting for exotic players. So the bigger pools of the BC plus a longer stretch could set up more lucrative betting scenarios.
str, how do you view races over 5 furlongs? I'm just wondering how long a horse can maintain a sprint without having to take a breather. The dynamic of a 5 furlong race seems quite different to me, but I'm not sure at what distance the dynamic would change to a more conventional race.
hey str..keith desormeaux trainer of the winner of the $1M delta jackpot commented that in the BC juvenile he had the horse to keyed up and it was his fault ..exaggerator ran a solid 4th in a 14 horse field in that race..what does he mean by that..worked him too much maybe ?
When I was young and new to the game, one of my first experiences with this was when CharlesTown ran 4 1/2F and 6 1/2 F and Shenandoah ran 3 1/2F and 5 1/2F. The 3 1/2 speed horses just could not get 4 1/2. Same with the 5 1/2 and 6 1/2 speed horses.
When they went from 4 1/2 to 3 1/2 the 4 1/2 speed horses could not make the lead. It was crazy, so it seemed.
I guess what I am saying is that at these short distances, a 1/2F means the world to plenty of horses that race at those distances. Not sure if that was part of your question but thought it couldn't hurt. Lol.
IMO, I think that from 6F and longer, horses will need to rate to win, at least somewhat. At shorter distances, when they are in a competitive field, they will still need to try and rate somewhat, but it is to a lesser extent.
5F races have horses that rate but those short distances are indeed different than the 6F or longer races. Once you get to 2 turns, the emphasis on rating is even more pronounced and much more obvious to see.
Probably not one of my better answers but some of this is opinion, IMO, so others might view it differently.
Personally, I hated 5F races and 5 1/2F races at the mile tracks. Too much luck involved for my liking.
Hope that helps at least a little.
Good question. Not worked him too much but worked him shorter distances and had him probably working bullets going 3F , 4 F or 5/8th's.
Or, he had him blowing out through the lane in untimed short works, like the last 1/4 of a gallop picking it up much quicker than he should have. Or in company too much and it made him over aggressive. Something like that.
You can definitely get a horse too fired up if you are not careful or know that horse really well. In this case, Keith knew him better than anyone I am sure, but the horse was evolving almost weekly and certainly monthly at that age, and whatever he did to get him all wound up, reared it's ugly head in the running of the race in Keith's eyes. Don't know the chart on him in that race, but he either showed too much energy early or the jock had to wrestle with him the whole way and he would not relax.
So this time he focused on relax and it made all the difference.
My very first experience was quarter horses. I had read this book by Charles Carroll, which has a unique way of looking at speed. I forgot about it when I asked the question. I guess I better skip 5f races, or read that book again. lol I remember contacting Carroll with a question, and even though he had written the book he had moved on from it as well. He added pretty much the same idea; that he might have to look at it again...
ok good to know that...I watched the replay on you tube and you can see the hold his brother (and jockey) Kent had on the horse from the first turn well into the backstretch..considering how well he ran anyway could see if he were more relaxed early on could have made a big difference ..he really put in a gritty performance yesterday and think if he holds together will be a nice horse as a 3yo
str just checking in with you . seeing how everything is, hope all is well......aunt nancy has another grand kid.........out in cal kicking it.....any 2 year olds you liking let.. ? i saw few at del mar over the weekend
mike smiths horse
Dressed In Hermes
and
Manhattan Dan
enjoy the holidays
Not a question. Just a bow to Shared Belief, who passed away last night. God, that hurts.
Thanks Har. Good to hear from you. Good ole Aunt Nancy. Glad to hear she is enjoying being a grand mom. Tell her I said hello.
Can't say as I have followed any two year olds so far. I like reading what you guys have to say about them early on. I start looking around about Feb. or so unless one of my friends has a young runner.
You enjoy the holidays as well. I will for sure.
Thanks Har !
The game is certainly as tough as they come. That's for sure. Not sure how I survived all the ups and downs for all those years.
When I hear about colic, or founder, it makes me sick. We all go through it if you are in the game long enough and it is never anything but terrible.
No words to describe how helpless you are as you do all you can, including sleeping through the night with them in the stall, or icing them an hour or two on and an hour off or ride a van in the middle of the night, or whatever the case, and it is still just a crap shoot if it works or not.
As hard as it is on owners and trainers, the real heroes, other than the horses themselves, which goes without saying, are the grooms that stay with those horses for days, nights, whatever, and do all that can be done. If you have ever done it, and I did several times, it is such a great feeling if they make it, and so devastating when they don't.
Brutal to even think about even decades later.
Tough game Thunderground.
thanks str
hey str
ever meet frank whiteley during your days as a trainer ?
I sure did. But not as a trainer the first time.
I was a green hot walker just learning the basics. Laurel, Fall of 1972. I was in barn 19, he was in barn 20. I lived in the barn in one of the rooms on the end.The outfit I worked for, had a lot of horses and needed an extra stall. We borrowed one from him, next door, and I would take the horse breakfast at 4:30 am and check on him around 8pm adding water or hay if necessary.
Mr. Whiteley was there every morning when I went to feed our horse early. Not at night, the night watchman was there then.
I remember saying good morning to him several times as he always spotted me entering his barn. I think he always said good morning young man, or something like that. He only had about 12 horses there so they were all on the same side as our stall was, facing barn 19.
Honestly, it was like when people see rock stars or a big name ball player. Even when I knew nothing, I knew he was great. You could just feel it in the air.
Once I became a trainer, in 1976, I spoke to him maybe a couple more times but his son David was taking over the Laurel horses so he was rarely around for me to see . I told him once when he was in a small group of trainers gathered around the rail watching horses train in the morning, that I was the person he used to see feeding that horse in the stall he loaned. I forget exactly what he said but it was complimentary a little towards me, and a lot towards my mentor. Again, I forget the conversation but he said something about being a quick learner , mainly because I started training at 20 years old, which was unheard of then. The average trainers age was probably mid to late 40's back then. Anyway, I do remember answering to him something like, it's hard not to learn quickly when I am surrounded with great trainers. He said something kind of gruff back to me like, you are only as good as your next decision or something like that. Pretty sure I said yes sir, and that was the end of it.
That was who he was. Tough as nails and accepted only the attempt at perfection.
I guess that is partly why I liked Ruffian so much. Don't know for sure. Too me, the greatest female I have ever seen race.
When I saw your avatar I almost fell out of my chair. What a great, great trainer and teacher he was.
I was soooo lucky to meet the people I met while at the track. Some of the names would blow you away. Almost doesn't seem real or like it didn't really happen, but it did. One lucky guy.
Thanks for using his pic. And thanks for the question. Brings back a ton of memories.
Wow great stuff.. getting to rub elbows with a guy like that early in your career must have been quite a thrill..I read shug mcgaughey and barclay tagg came up under him..when he passed in 2008 at the age of 93 shug commented he was tough but fair..always wanted to get the most out of everybody who worked for him and the horses..sure there were others who came up under him also..probably an allen jerkens type guy I bet (frank 14 years older)..old school,hard work,little gruff and straightforward if there's any issues..he would have been 100 this year ..glad to bring up some good memories for you
and enjoyed reading your experience ,albeit brief, with him
rudy rodriguez a perennial below average jockey when he rode on the NY circuit has turned out to be an excellent trainer over the past decade or so..I heard he used to gallop a lot of horses for richard dutrow jr during his riding years.. have two questions related to this..is it typical that lots of bottom rung jocks will try to make a few extra bucks working horses? (guessing yes)..Is this a good or as good a path to becoming a trainer as starting out as a hotwalker or groom ? would have to think working horses would be a great education for learning the game
Q. Is it typical that lots of bottom rung jocks will try to make a few extra bucks working horses? (guessing yes)..
A. While they are riding, they offer their services to work a horse or some horses for free in hopes of being used by that trainer when a rider is needed, like a late rider change or an entry or whatever. So while riding, their work is usually for free.
Galloping is a different story. Many jocks cannot gallop a horse worth a darn in that the horse will often go too fast in the gallop or whatever.
So just to understand, horses gallop most days they train. A slow or medium pace almost always. They might also jog for a while prior to breaking into a gallop. A gallop is about the speed of when the horse is coming back to the groom after a race. A work is quick as you well know, but happens every 5-7th day or whatever the case may be. So workouts for jocks, sure. But a jock galloping my horse, no thanks.
Exception might be if a rider needs to get fit again after an injury but even then, I would be very selective in who I might let the jock gallop by choosing a very easy horse to gallop. One that quite frankly anybody could gallop with a shoe string instead of a bit. Maybe one in 8-10 are like that. Most are tougher than that but not real tough, just tough enough that it is not worth the risk of having the horse run off 2 miles and screw up the schedule to say nothing about running down( burning the back of the ankles with friction burn) and allowing a bad habit to creep in or any of the other thousand things that can go wrong.
About 2-3 out of 10 are varying degrees of very tough to gallop. Some just have certain quirks and some are like wrestling a bear. No way a trainer lets a jock get anywhere near those types. And male or female doesn't matter. I have had males that were easy and females that darn near pulled the riders guts out every day. Just like us, they are all a little different and each , their own individual selves.
Q. Is this a good or as good a path to becoming a trainer as starting out as a hotwalker or groom ? would have to think working horses would be a great education for learning the game
A. From all that I saw, many more trainers too be, were the ones that stayed on the ground and learned without ever galloping a horse. Maybe because that was the typical way it happened, I am not sure.
Some former riders have become very successful trainers so to generalize might be unfair. I think that what a groom to trainer loses by not ever feeling a horse under them out on the track, they more than gain by what they saw in the stall. A rider will need to learn a ton of stuff on the ground to catch up with a groom. And while both can happen, I guess the majority of trainers come from being grooms . Being as that is how I came up, I am sure I am biased towards that.
In Rudy's case, he was Rick's asst. for a long time. And because Rick had so many horses, it was like learning at 5 times the speed of others because of the volume. Volume of problems, decisions, ways to handle situations, you name it. You can learn much more than most, in a shorter period of time because of the volume. (That is what helped me get started so young).
And most importantly was the Rick factor. Now I know that a lot of people think a lot of things about Rick, and he is ruled off and if you believe everything you read, a terrible person who cheated to win. And while Rick has brought a ton of problems on himself for the way things were handled, from where I sit, just like the Bill Walsh or Mike Holmgren coaching tree in football or the Wayne Lukes trainers tree , the Dutrow training tree starting with his dad and carried on by Dick's sons, is impressive as any of them. Simply put, Rudy, who I have met but don't really know at all, learned from one of the best horsemen I ever knew. Same as his brother Tony, and of course their father , Richard Sr. who taught his three boys (Chip, the youngest, never had his potential realized but is a very good horseman in his own right) as well as many aspiring trainers that went on to win countless thousands of races over the years. It is no surprise too me that Rudy is as successful as he has been. And while I am sure he learned plenty while riding horses, what he learned from Rick, in the shed, in the stall, and the managing process as well as the attention to detail, work ethic, and a ton of subtle signs that many would not recognize , but not a Dutrow taught trainer, I promise you, is what has helped Rudy put it all together.
Again, there will be those that might be offended by what I said in light of Rick's problems, or think that it is illegal drugs or whatever they want to think, but Rudy is as good as Rudy is, because he learned from one of the best. A lot of what was said about Rick is just not true.
Yep, Rick was crazy and wild and flamboyant and anything else you want to call it. But the last thing he was,was a drug trainer. Nor was his dad or others taught by his dad.
Probably hard to believe with all that has been said, and I won't blame anyone that is forced to draw a conclusion based on what they have heard. But either you know the real and whole story, or you have heard what is deemed to be the real and whole story. I am fortunate enough to know it without hearsay. I lived it.
Thanks for the soapbox format JBEX. I will hop off now. Lol.
Hope that helped answer the Q.'s
hey str..great read ..I definetly will have some follow up questions but just wanted to let you know I saw it
just watched our old friend el oh el run at parx..did nothing in the race.. thought it might be a good chance to look back and evaluate how's he done since I first asked you about him..it was back in October 2013 when I first brought him up ..he was a Jacobson drop down fro 35k to 15k and a 3yo with under 10 starts..he had banked about 30-40k at that time if I remember correctly.. he was at that time 3 or 4 starts away from being shipped to laurel to run for 5 or 8k claiming ..going into today's race at parx here are his numbers..2014 ..14 -4-3-2 ..$72.3K earnings...2015 14-2-2-4 ..$71.8k earnings..wouldn't be surprised if he's changed hands a half dozen times and I'm pretty sure at least 4..is this the type of horse a trainer appreciates having ?? not a superstar but not a dud either..puts some money in everybody's pocket and often times puts forth a solid effort..I would have to think so but like your thoughts
I think part of the problem was I said "gallop" rather than "work" referring to what Rudy did for Rick..To be totally honest I think in the back of my mind I realized jocks don't gallop but do work horses.. Also find it very interesting that jockeys aren't suited to gallop horses... that should be left to exercise riders I'm assuming..If that's the case is that all these people do or do they perform other duties around the track to make a living ? not knocking them but just curious to know
Wasn't aware Rudy was his assistant ..Makes sense what you said though about in big stables assistants take on more responsibility which therefore quickens the learning process..If I remember correctly Rudy did well very early on when he went out on his own.I forget if it coincided with Rick's ban or not.. I always heard Dutrow Sr was a great trainer and sounds like you concur..I've always thought myself the drug thing was a little overblown and that guys like Jacobson and Rick Jr were just talented trainers who could make some legit adjustments and get more out of the horse than the previous trainer.. Whether that's right or wrong from a handicapping perspective these guys make things a lot less enjoyable IMO..I don't want to bet on horse
just because one of these guys claimed him..Lots of these horses on paper looked a cut below the races they were placed in following the claim but often times ran well or won..Realize after a while you can factor that in to your capping and maybe even get value with others because everyone's doing the obvious and betting them 1st or 2nd off the claim blindly.. Anyway good to hear your perspective on Rick,Rudy and how Sr was a great horsemen in his time
This summer at Del Mar I noticed that the guys loading the horses into the gate had decided to kick dirt at the horses from the back. It worked for the loading process, but it didn't look very good to me, because I didn't want a little piece of something to hit a horse in just the wrong spot on the ankle. Aside from that I guess that I wanted a little more respect for these magnificent athletes I was betting on. So I wrote Del Mar about it, and they stopped doing it. My question. Was I being overly sensitive and worried about nothing, or were they wrong to load horses like that?
While on the topic of Del Mar, they have a lot of rock concerts during the summer meet. Even if the stables are on the other side of the ground, couldn't such loud music at night affect horses and throw off their natural routine? What about their sleep? I'm thinking of these things as a handicapper, so I just want things to be as normal as possible. Anything out of the ordinary is not welcome. lol
Last edited by Thunderground; 12-17-15 at 01:21 AM.
Q. that should be left to exercise riders I'm assuming.
A. Absolutely.
Q. If that's the case is that all these people do or do they perform other duties around the track to make a living ? not knocking them but just curious to know
A. You mean exercise riders? If so, depending on their skill set and experience, some are asst. trainers or foremen for trainers. Those are salary riders that are a big cut above. Probably what Rudy was. Others work salary and are done for the day around 10:30AM and some might have another job, or not. It all depends. I knew several that drove food delivery as a second job. One was an insurance agent. Some were college students and went off to school after work. Just depends if they are wanting to hustle and make money or not. Some are well off and don't need to supplement their income but plenty are week to week and do.
Freelance riders, by that I mean, independent contractors who unlike the above types, are not on salary but get paid by the head for each day, are in the same boat. Some do not need to any more and do what they do because they love it. But most need more. Some are valets, the guys that help the trainer saddle the horse and work for a rider. They leave the barn and head over to the jocks room for their 2nd job. Check out the size of those guys and how fit some are next time you go to the paddock. Pretty easy to spot them. Most were wanna be jocks that just ended up growing a little too big and weighed 130-150.
Some work as a parking lot attendant or in valet parking. A couple were in the mutual dept. Plenty of side jobs at the track.
Q. I've always thought myself the drug thing was a little overblown and that guys like Jacobson and Rick Jr were just talented trainers who could make some legit adjustments and get more out of the horse than the previous trainer.
A. Unfortunately, while the drug thing is overblown, it does exist. Can't speak about Jacobson as I do not know him. I will say that in watching his training tactics and reading what little I read, I do not care for his way of training at all. I am no fan of his, that's for sure.
Rick is a totally different story, but that story is impossible for fans to accurately hear. It's not the fans fault , just the way it is.
I definitely understand what you mean about being forced to use a horse just because a certain trainer just claimed it. I get that and I am with you there. Some of the grossly high %'s these days are so over the top that a customer is almost nuts if they DON'T think something is going on. It is a very worrisome problem facing racing IMO.
Q. My question. Was I being overly sensitive and worried about nothing, or were they wrong to load horses like that?
A. The quick answer is yes, you were probably being a little bit over protective. But... You were actually right. They should not do that. Disrespectful to everyone involved with that horse. Owner on down. Everyone. Here is why they were doing it.
When a horse kind of locks up or becomes a statue which happens about 5-10 feet before the gate in a lot of cases, you can rarely get them to then move forward without turning them or having them move at an angle. That means turning them, or whatever and all that takes time. If the horse unlocks itself, so to speak, they can go forward with no problem. Touching the lower back leg area with something is like if a fly is on you ankle. After a while, usually a short while, you need to stomp or pick up your foot and scratch the ankle , thus getting the fly off.
If you MAKE a horse try and go straight once they are locked, or frozen as it is called, they will either, lung, which can't happen that close to the gate without getting the horse or someone hurt, or rear up. Rearing up can look harmless if it is only a foot or two. But... You do not know that. They can rear WAY up, which puts the rider in harms way. And rarely, but it certainly happens, they go way up and go too far and flip over. That can have the horse hit it's head, which I have seen result in death within minutes, although the cushion of the dirt helps out by the gate, or if the rider cannot slide off in time, they can flip over and crush the rider. I watched a rider die under those circumstances. Obviously nothing to take lightly. So by having something touch the hock ( back leg knee that looks like a golf ball) or lower, the horse will move on it's own and all those possibilities are averted.
Often, they will have a long bull whip style whip and simply touch or tickle, not hit, the area to get them to move. Can't touch there with your hands as they would possibly kick your brains out. Some are as fast as a Mike Tyson punch so nobody dares do that.
So that is why they were doing it, it was easy, but again, you were right. It was not respectful and just doesn't look good to the customer.
Q. While on the topic of Del Mar, they have a lot of rock concerts during the summer meet. Even if the stables are on the other side of the ground, couldn't such loud music at night affect horses and throw off their natural routine? What about their sleep? I'm thinking of these things as a handicapper, so I just want things to be as normal as possible. Anything out of the ordinary is not welcome. lol[/QUOTE]
A. Dealt with a few rock concerts at the track in my days. Darn right it affects them. No sleep until it's over. Some get all crazy, some hear it but really don't care too much. Because it affects them all differently, just like laid back or high strung people, it's impossible for you to know who might be more affected than others.
Q. .is this the type of horse a trainer appreciates having ??
A. A claiming trainer loves this type. These types of horses are the backbone of the industry. Everyone knows about the champions, but these types fill out the card daily. They run just as hard as they can. Work through ailments. Rarely miss many dances.
Like the working class of any country, they are the real unsung heroes. All they do is work and try as hard as they can for you. Gotta appreciate that.
Thanks str. Much appreciated. So kicking the dirt was actually a safe thing... They did do it to pretty much all the horses that walked up to the gate. It was something that got over the crew, as they hadn't done it the previous meet, and they also stopped doing it collectively.
It's slow season - Los Alamitos ain't no Hollywood -, so those were my slow season questions. Have a great Christmas.
Would you say that the claiming game is the area where trainers have the biggest impact, relatively speaking? Could claiming races be the area where it almost becomes more about handicapping the trainers than the horses?
I wish there was a great book on claiming horses. There's almost nothing out there. So often you talk about claiming, and you bring up stuff I had never even thought about. And so I wouldn't even know what to ask. The field is just too hidden. I think I remember reading that Dutrow knew when he could significantly improve the hind quarters of horse, but that is such specific knowledge that it's beyond the scope of my handicapping.
Is there a central question surrounding the field of claiming? Such as: is a trainer looking for something in the horse that he knows he can improve? There may be a whole bunch of key questions that the trainer asks himself, so my question would be what some of those key questions are.
Last edited by Thunderground; 12-18-15 at 01:41 PM.
I guess the above question isn't really pointing in the right direction, since I have no real way of knowing what trainers look for. Looking into this some more, the restrictions on claiming races, with the help of a claiming ladder, may be a more fruitful area of study: http://www.americasbestracing.net/en...laiming-races/.
To summarize that article. "A horse that drops from a n2y race to a n2x is making a much bigger drop than if that horse dropped to a n1y race." (Davidowitz), and the authors added insight that "'For years I considered a 10K claiming race at any restriction to be a higher class than a 5K claiming race at any restriction. The fact is, often the horses in an open Clm5000 race are tougher competitors than the horses in a Clm10000n2L. The move from restricted to open races, no matter the purse amount, is a big step up and vice versa."
Is that the general direction to look in?
Edit - I figure one's chances at winning pick 6's would increase exponentially with a better handle on claiming races. What headings would you add in the following layout for each horse: Previous race: claiming (or other), purse, restriction, finish #, lengths behind; present race: claiming, purse, restriction, up or down in class, coming off open or restricted race.
Last edited by Thunderground; 12-18-15 at 07:27 PM.
Q. Would you say that the claiming game is the area where trainers have the biggest impact, relatively speaking?
A. Probably.
Q. Could claiming races be the area where it almost becomes more about handicapping the trainers than the horses?
A. Almost but not always. Claiming horses, and I speak to under 35k horses , and the lower the price the more this might apply, can have patterns over 2 years or so where they really like a certain track, or surface, time of year, or even trainer. A solid claiming trainer has all the stats these days for all to see. More often than not, they are distinctly better with a colt or gelding, or a filly or mare. If it is filly or mare, better still with mares is the rule of thumb. This was not always recognized back when I was in it, not sure if it is today but there are many more analytical trainers and owners today than there were in the 70's and 80's. That is for sure.I was one of those back then, and I was clearly different in that regard. Hell, I would over think and analyze where to park my car for christ's sake. Lol.
Today, with the crazy high % stuff going on, it is definitely different, but to exactly what end , I am not sure.
Q. I think I remember reading that Dutrow knew when he could significantly improve the hind quarters of horse, but that is such specific knowledge that it's beyond the scope of my handicapping.
A. Yep. You did. He was great at that, and here is a news flash.Without needles or illegal drugs. It was two fold but started with a training technique that his dad did, just about exclusively way back in the day.Over the years, others picked up on it but that was one of several things that took a horse that was weak or sore behind, and really improved the horse drastically. Probably most trainers do that today. But the way low end claiming, like C.T. is still waaaaay behind the times as thier trainers colony is still populated with good ole boys that have no clue whatsoever. That , just like when I was working, made the ones that do get it, look so much smarter. Not 40% all the time smarter, but they do much better than the 4-7% players that seemingly never get hot. Anyone can go cold. I am talking about year in and year out. Nobody that has the money to play the game and the knowledge to trade in the claiming game stays cold forever. If you see a guy that USED to know how to train but has seemingly forgotten, it is a lack of money to trade horses or too many bad homebreds . That trainer did not forget. They don't have the means to play the game the way others do or the way they used to be able to.
If they were poor to mediocre for years and all the sudden, 30-40% for years, well, let's just say that they have found a new way to get it done and chances are, well, you know.
Q.Is there a central question surrounding the field of claiming? Such as: is a trainer looking for something in the horse that he knows he can improve?
A. Hard to answer for others, but I would look for weak, low% riders, shipping all over the place , running over their heads, low % trainers, horses I recognized in the AM while training that were in my mind being trained incorrectly, Horses that needed an obvious equipment change, and it goes on and on.
Really depends on the trainer to be honest. I claimed a horse once that was always running against me in an 8,500 claiming race going long and had speed. I had 3 solid horses and without that horse in the race, could dominate the category with those three for the next couple of months if I did not have to run against that horse. So what did I do? I claimed him. He no longer ran my horses with speed into the ground. They ALL 3 won the category at least once, some several times. So, trainers motivation as to why they do something is probably too much info to try and gather.
There are certain things, like what I mentioned above about strengths with certain claiming trainers that plenty of customers do not use, like the filly and mare angle, that is not in the DRF, that is a great tool to have.
Hope that helps. Sorry for the delay. The last week has been crazy.
Last edited by str; 12-26-15 at 09:17 AM.
Q. "A horse that drops from a n2y race to a n2x is making a much bigger drop than if that horse dropped to a n1y race." (Davidowitz), and the authors added insight that "'For years I considered a 10K claiming race at any restriction to be a higher class than a 5K claiming race at any restriction. The fact is, often the horses in an open Clm5000 race are tougher competitors than the horses in a Clm10000n2L. The move from restricted to open races, no matter the purse amount, is a big step up and vice versa."
Is that the general direction to look in?
A. Absolutely ! Again, especially at lower level tracks where some of the trainers are 30 years behind schedule. C.T. for instance.
I think what you need to do is to establish an opinion as to how many lengths inferior each condition is and have every condition offered listed in order , starting from toughest to easiest.
For instance. A track offers Md. 5, 7500, 10k and MSW. Well, at Charles Town when I paid attention, you could take a Maryland maiden 15k that could run 3rd, beaten 5-6 lengths, run for special weight and win more often than not. If that CT maiden you beat but ran second to you ,dropped from MSW to Maiden 10, it was probably about 5-6 lengths. But 10K to 7500 was almost nill. However the drop from 7500 to md. 5 was about 5 more lengths. That told you that the MSW that was getting beat 8 lengths at CT and dropped to md. 5 was , rule of thumb, dropping 11 lengths to say nothing of the confidence factor once the race started and the horse was able to be a solid contender with the same ho hum effort early on that usually had it well back and outrun after a 1/4 mile.
Yep, horses have and go through the body language slumped shoulders and not paying attention just like football players do when they realize they have no chance or are a beaten bunch, it's just that horses have this going through their heads, they don't know how to slump there shoulders as well as humans do. I guess they never learned the attractive art of sulking as well as us humans. Make no mistake though, they absolutely do, more so around the barn which is something a customer would not be able to see. don't feel bad though, many a trainer back in my day, could not see it either. Lol. That's one thing that made the good ones good and the bad ones clueless. All the drugs today has leveled the field a little I guess, but at the end of the day, a solid horseman will outshine a novice every time.
(However, ship a CT maiden 15k claimer that runs 2,3,4 but can't win,to Maryland and try and win at the same price and it would lose by double digits as the graph would show because the maiden 15k horse from Maryland was double digits better than the maiden 15k horse from CT . Why? Because the maryland 15k maiden could win a MSW at CT more often then not , making it roughly 6+ lengths better than the CT MSW horses, which were in turn, about 5-6 lengths better than the 15k claimers. So, if the graph, or accuracy of condition difference is correct, the CT maiden is about 11-12 + lengths inferior to the Maryland horses of the same price tag. I might be saying it in a confusing manner but it is not confusing at all once you have it.
To this day, My group of buddies still try and get together on the 4 big days of the year at the track. Triple crown races and BC day. But being honest, I would much rather handicap a bunch of claiming races with conditions or open, plenty of both, at various distances than I would the elite races. Why? Because I am just a guy handicapping like everyone else in those big events. But even though it has been 14 years, I know I still have a big edge in those cheap claimers just because I understand them so well. Of course, times have changed so any knowledge of length difference is probably way off without updating.
Happy to help you set up a claiming graph if you want to. Doubt it will work at SA as well as it would at a much lesser venue though. Let me know.
Last edited by str; 12-26-15 at 10:02 AM.
Great answers str! Much to think about. Will take me a while. Thanks for the offer as well. Will take you up on it behind the scene.
Congrats to Mikemca,17th, Thundeground, 27th, and Floridagolfer 51st on their BTP finishes.
Good to see the horse forum being represented.
Hope I didn't miss anyone.
Nice job guys.
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