Originally Posted by
str
Welcome to the forum and thank you for all the kind words.
You sure did ask a million dollar question and one very close to my heart for your 1st one. This question is one that I must have asked 50 different people in my early days on the track. But I asked the older guys not the guys my age. From old grooms , vets, blacksmiths, and once I was a trainer and had access to other trainers and jocks, I asked a bunch of them also. Because the google years are upon us, I won't name drop full names but some last names that I asked that you would probably know include, H. Clark, S. Hine, J. Tammaro Sr., B. Delp ( when he finally started talking too me. That story is in this thread),B. Bond, and a lot more. I even asked Eddie Sweat, Secretariats groom, 2 nights before the Preakness. I asked the racing secretary's, Abundi and Raffeto, jocks like Passmore, Bracciale, Davidson,MacBeth,Perret and Imparato. Tried to ask the Shoe the one time I was able to ride him on a horse I trained but friggin Cossell screwed that up( that's in this thread also). I even asked Pincay when I was a groom for my mentor on the way to the track from the paddock on Preakness or B.E.Susan day, can't remember, while leading him out to the track. I am pretty sure he thought I was crazy. Lol. But the fact that your exact question was the one I chose to ask in one minute tells you just how important that question was too me. For many of these people it seemed to really stump them. There is no clear cut answer. But there were indeed opinions that led me to my conclusion and honestly helped form me in to a trainer that was not a conventional type but one that thought a little differently than most. Not sure if that was a good thing or not . I was told by some that I was a goofy Gemini and left handed so what do you expect. Lol. And while I don't really believe all that stuff, I would not have had it any other way.
Mr. Clark, a HOFer and an old groom who left quite an impression on me when I 1st came on the track probably gave the best answers. Mr. Clark said something to the effect that the answer lied within each individual and when asked for it , they would fully deliver or have no interest in it. Mr. Barry, the groom, said something like, just like people,class shows in subtle ways. He said, just look at a horses stall at 5 am each morning. The horses with class will have things still in order while the ones that don't will have crapped where they eat. Both were right as were others because I don't think a wrong answer truly exists. Nobody really knows exactly, for sure, the answer.
As a handicapper, you do not have access to all that I mentioned so let me summarize all that I put together after asking this for probably 4-5 years .
More often than not, a 5k type horse will fail when asked to step up. But for those that do not, look for these clues. In no particular order.
Check the breeding and see if the sire was a faint hearted , oh well, I will get em next time type or a blood and guts fighter type that never gives up. That is not that hard to figure out if you know the more popular sires past accomplishments. And while you will never get it right all the time, you will often enough or at least a sense of it. It would be darn near impossible to know the mares but they can also influence this. So if you do know a particular mare, all the better.
Look to see if the horse once had any back class to begin with, that is, did this horse accomplish things once upon a time and if the horse gets happy, can he climb the ladder somewhat before the added pressure on it's body aggravates an old injury or creates a new one, thus hampering climbing further up the ladder. The clue here will be the trainer keeping the horse at the same level or even dropping it back slightly. In most cases, the mental is still there and the horse will continue to grind and run very well. But once they lose, that might be it for a while. Not always, but many more times than not IMO.
Watch the post parade and look for the horse that might stand stoically and view the surroundings when it turns to gallop or jog off. See if the jock allows this to happen. If the rider does, it is a sign of respect and more times than not, the horse will run very well.
If you know the horse well, maybe they have added some weight and their coat looks much better. Changing barns to a new trainer and new diet and training routine can definitely get a horse happy. Or being reunited with a jockey that brought out the best previously. Blks. on or a change in distance, usually a stretch out can certainly do the trick. But at the end of the day, it's all about the horse being happy and really enjoying the competition.
Now I know that plenty will read this and say, c'mon man, who has time for all this stuff? For Christ's sake just bet . But remember, you asked a specific question that too me, is a horseman's question more so than a handicapping question. All the Beyers in the world can't touch this answer. Many of the quality people I asked could not really answer this exact question without studdering or falling all over their words. And the reason why is exactly what H. Clark, who I shared my first barn with back in 76 at Pimlico said. It's within each individual horse to answer and we won't really know until it's too late. With that said, it's up to each bettor to just say too hell with it or try and find the subtle clues to come up with the answer.
Yes, the good ones are also more times than not, the smart ones and the hamming it up is a sure sign of class. They are basically saying, I own this place . This is MY track. Welcome too it everyone.
The answer indeed does lie where you thought it did. It is the eye contact often enough but it took me years and years to see through a horses eye and try to reach their sole. And there are many people that are much better at it than I ever was. The real good horses usually had it. Again,back in this thread, is the Ruffian story I told and her eyes. Pretty sure those eyes were one of the reasons I became a trainer. Simply like nothing i had ever seen before and I will never forget them.
The grunting and loud noises no. It's not that.
As for times, because of soooo many things that can affect time, don't try and look at it like " the horse ran 1:11 so it can do it again against better. The old race track atage that time only matters when your in jail is pretty accurate. So don't go there. If you want to compare times, compare the first quarter or the 1/2 mile time but only at the same track because the run up before the clock can change from track to track so the same horse that cuts 22:1 at Monmouth can only cut 23:1 at Pimlico. It is running just as fast but the clock is starting after 10 feet instead of 30 feet. Hope that makes sense.
While pace can certainly be a factor in horses moving up, it seems you have that understanding down pat so when all else has been excluded, look within the individual and see if it existed before an injury or downturn. If it did, it is still in there but the horse needs to be in a positive frame of mind for that to surface.
I firmly believe that when some over matched horses get into the gate with better horses, they can sense it and within 5 strides out of the gate, they realize that they just cannot compete. So they never really give all they could because they are mentally defeated before they know what hit them. This also holds true with people sometimes. Horses do not know much, but they sure as hell know about competition and just like humans, without the proper physique, they are done before they start.
I sure hope all of this has helped answer a question that is not only close to my heart but was a question that I watched many many great horseman fumble all over the place. It was their fumbling that helped me better understand it and hopefully help you and others with it as well.
So while you might thank me for the answer I want to thank you for asking it. It allowed me to wander back in my minds eye and remember and visualize some of the best times of my life. I hope you and others can enjoy this thread as much as I enjoy sharing my times with you.
Hope to hear from you again.
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