[Professor-MJ]

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

Much less busy night in perspective today, but still a lot of action because of the trade deadline. I am making the projections below early in the morning, so it won’t take into account any trades.

	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pinnacle	PROF. MJ	Pick
Hurricanes	+162	+239	2.62	3.39
Lightning	-180	-239	1.56	1.42	X

If you look at both teams’ record, you may wonder why my projected lines have Tampa Bay such a huge favorite. There are LOTS of reasons.

First of all, the fatigue factor. Carolina not only is playing the second of back-to-back road games, but this will also be their 3rd in 4 nights. Meanwhile, Tampa has played only one game in 5 days. They are well-rested.

Carolina’s leading scorer, Jeff Skinner, will be out for the second straight game. The Hurricanes have dealtRon Hainsey and Viktor Stalberg, which are not star players but were still playing a certain role with the team.Carolina is on a two-game losing streak (they’ve won only 3 of their last 10). Will Cam Ward be in net againtonight? I feel like it will be the case because Eddie Lack recently played two straight games, and their headcoach has used Ward in consecutive days several times this season.

The Lightning have won 6 of their last 9 games, they are playing much better. Will they keep their position assellers at the trade deadline (after trading Brian Boyle)? Tampa has recorded at least one point against Carolina over the last 5 matchups.

Final pick: Bet the Lighting at -180 (decimal odds = 1.56) for a ROI of 9.7% (the line opened at -162 yesterday in Pinnacle, so we missed some value again, but I still see it as profitable this morning). I rarely pick such big favorites, but it does happen from time to time!

	888Sport	PROF. MJ	888Sport	PROF. MJ	Pick
Pens	+106	+166	2.06	2.66
Hawks	-129	-166	1.68	1.60	X

As of 9:45am, very few bookies have a line on this game. I found two that do, including 888Sport. I wish I had anaccount there, as I like the Chicago line a lot. Again, I’ve got a list of reasons. Rest is also a factor here: Pittsburgh on the second of back-to-back games, while Chicago has played 1 game in 5 days.

Marc-Andre Fleury should be in net, unless he gets traded by the deadline. Their GM told reporters he would prefer to keep him as an insurance policy if Murray gets hurt. So it doesn’t look they are going to trade him, unless they get a good offer (or perhaps if their trading partner sends them a valuable backup goalie). Murray has started the last 5 games, and since it’s the Pens 2nd game in 2 nights, they are likely to give him some rest. You want Fleury to be the starting goalie tonight if you are to bet Chicago, as his numbers have been significantly worse than Murray’s (3.16 GAA with .906 save percentage for Fleury, versus 2.29 GAA with .926 save percentage for Murray).

On Chicago’s side, Scott Darling will start in Crawford’s absence (dealing with the flu). That’s no big deal when you look at his stats: 2.18 GAA with a .929 save percentage, which is great! The Hawks are on a 4-game winning streak and have won 9 of their last 10 contests! Also note that they have beaten the Pens 4 straight times.

Final pick: Bet the Blackhawks at -129 (decimal odds = 1.78) for a ROI of 10.8%. I suspect the line will move in favor of Chicago, so my advice would be to bet them as long as the odds are 1.68 (-146) or higher, which yields a ROI of 5%.

Enjoy the trade deadline!

Professor MJ

[Scrivero]

Thanks for the insight on the games! Im not sure how I feel overall about the well rested team vs. a team with B2B games, whether there is actually positive correlation with the well rested team winning. I wonder if there's some statistics on this? Sounds like a pain to back test such a scenario too. Although 3 games in 4 nights is certainly a fatigue factor, as you said. BOL!

[AskJonny4Notes]

Great analysis MJ! I'm on both of these plays as well. BOL

[Professor-MJ]

Thanks for the insight on the games! Im not sure how I feel overall about the well rested team vs. a team with B2B games, whether there is actually positive correlation with the well rested team winning. I wonder if there's some statistics on this? Sounds like a pain to back test such a scenario too. Although 3 games in 4 nights is certainly a fatigue factor, as you said. BOL!

I'm actually working on this these days, i.e. trying to estimate more accurately the effect of rested versus non-rested. I'll keep you posted!

[Scrivero]

I'm actually working on this these days, i.e. trying to estimate more accurately the effect of rested versus non-rested. I'll keep you posted!

Great, thanks! I have tried to create a working system over this topic as well. My latest trial was to see whether a "too rested" (a team with no games in x amount of days) team would actually be negatively affected by the break in games. My back testing showed that this might actually be the case to an extent, but it was not enough to warrant a reliable system by any means.

I did not check the stats for "too rested" vs. teams with B2B-games (first game compared to second game of B2B vs. the too rested team's first game after the break). I could do it but I can not figure out an excel formula for it. Would take a million years to do the back testing manually. Arent you a statistics expert? How about using excel? What would the formula look like if I have an excel with:
1. In column A (on rows 2-83) the team that plays
2. In column B (on rows 84-165) the opposing team
3. In column C the dates of the games for team A (on rows 2-83) (to see the break between games for team A)
4. In column D the dates of the games for team B (on rows 84-165) (to see the B2B games for opposing team)
5. In column E the result of the game (W/L for the team in column A)

I want to have a formula that will show me exactly the results (W/L) in games where there has been a break of X games (e.g. 3 games) for a team AND that the game after the break is against a team that is having B2B-games. I cant figure that formula out... It should be like "the results of a game if a team in column A has more than X amount of days in between games and is facing a team B who is on the second leg of its B2B".

I am not a statistics or excel expert by any means, I just try to learn this stuff to be able to calculate very quickly different scenarios and outcomes of different possible systems.

[Professor-MJ]

Great, thanks! I have tried to create a working system over this topic as well. My latest trial was to see whether a "too rested" (a team with no games in x amount of days) team would actually be negatively affected by the break in games. My back testing showed that this might actually be the case to an extent, but it was not enough to warrant a reliable system by any means.

I did not check the stats for "too rested" vs. teams with B2B-games (first game compared to second game of B2B vs. the too rested team's first game after the break). I could do it but I can not figure out an excel formula for it. Would take a million years to do the back testing manually. Arent you a statistics expert? How about using excel? What would the formula look like if I have an excel with:
1. In column A (on rows 2-83) the team that plays
2. In column B (on rows 84-165) the opposing team
3. In column C the dates of the games for team A (on rows 2-83) (to see the break between games for team A)
4. In column D the dates of the games for team B (on rows 84-165) (to see the B2B games for opposing team)
5. In column E the result of the game (W/L for the team in column A)

I want to have a formula that will show me exactly the results (W/L) in games where there has been a break of X games (e.g. 3 games) for a team AND that the game after the break is against a team that is having B2B-games. I cant figure that formula out... It should be like "the results of a game if a team in column A has more than X amount of days in between games and is facing a team B who is on the second leg of its B2B".

I am not a statistics or excel expert by any means, I just try to learn this stuff to be able to calculate very quickly different scenarios and outcomes of different possible systems.

I actually do 90% of my stuff using the free statistical software R. But you need to know how to program in R in order to use it, which I'm pretty good at. So I copy-paste datasets from Excel into text files, which are then read by R, and then I can do pretty much anything I want. Sorry I can't help you with Excel... I'll keep you posted when I'm done analyzing this stuff!

[Professor-MJ]

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world! We have 6 games on the menu tonight, and I see 2 value bets plus another one that you could consider betting. Here are today’s projections:

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Lightning	+143	+197	2.43	2.97
Pens	-158	-197	1.63	1.51	X

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Coyotes	+220	+212	3.20	3.12
Hurricanes	-247	-212	1.40	1.47

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Blues	+107	+126	2.07	2.26
Jets	-118	-126	1.85	1.79

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Islanders	+164	+170	2.64	2.70
Blackhawks	-182	-170	1.55	1.59

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Wings	+141	+212	2.41	3.12
Flames	-156	-212	1.64	1.47	X

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Leafs	+136	+114	2.36	2.14	X
Ducks	-150	-114	1.67	1.88

I definitely recommend the following 2 bets:

• Bet the Flames -156 (decimal 1.64) vs Detroit. The Wings just traded their second highest scorer Thomas Vanek, while their fifth-best Gustav Nyquist will be serving the final game of a suspension. Also, starting goalie Mrazek has started the last 5 games, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they go with Jared Coreau whose numbers are significantly worse than Mrazek’s.
• Take the Leafs at +136 (decimal 2.36) in Anaheim in their third and final game on the West Coast. After losing the first two games of this mini road trip, I expect the Leafs to come out hungry. Fatigue might come into play because of the back-to-back, while Anaheim is playing off their bye week. However, it has been well-documented how badly teams have done in their first game following their bye week. The Leafs have acquired Brian Boyle from Tampa. Backup goalie Curtis McElhinney will probably be in net for Toronto, but that doesn’t bother me at all considering his stats have been great.

You could bet the Penguins at -158 (decimal 1.63). The ROI of 8.3% tells me I should bet them, but I’m pretty worried about the fact that more than 80% of the bets have gone on Pittsburgh and yet the line is moving AGAINST them. I’ve been paying more attention to this phenomenon recently and it has paid off, so I prefer to be cautious here. Budaj will start his first game as a Lightning.

Thanks for reading!

Professor MJ

[Professor-MJ]

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

Most of the time I won’t post projections for weekend games, but this time you get a little bonus. With 10 games on Saturday, I see 5 profitable bets. Take advantage of the early lines (I’m looking forward to tracking lines to see if they move in my favor or not). Here are the full projections:

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Avalanche	+195	+184	2.95	2.84
Jets	-218	-184	1.46	1.54

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Devils	+248	+210	3.48	3.10	X
Bruins	-280	-210	1.36	1.48

Tip: Bet the Devils.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Lightning	-139	+111	1.72	2.11
Sabres	+126	-111	2.26	1.90	X

Tip: Bet the Sabres.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Jackets	-115	-126	1.87	1.79
Senators	+105	+126	2.05	2.26

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Stars	+129	+173	2.29	2.73
Panthers	-143	-173	1.70	1.58	X

Tip: Bet the Panthers.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Canadiens	+113	+136	2.13	2.36
Rangers	-125	-136	1.80	1.74

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Flyers	+231	+274	3.31	3.74
Capitals	-260	-274	1.38	1.36

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Hawks	+111	+106	2.11	2.06
Preds	-123	-106	1.81	1.94

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Canucks	+231	+188	3.31	2.88	X
Kings	-260	-188	1.38	1.53

Tip: Bet the Canucks.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Wings	+185	+260	2.85	3.60
Oilers	-206	-260	1.49	1.38	X

Tip: Bet the Oilers.


The best value goes to Buffalo at +126 (decimal 2.26) vs Tampa. The Sabres are on a “normal” schedule, while the Lightning will be playing the second of back-to-back games (3^rd in 4 nights, 4^th in 6 nights). We will see how they do tonight in Pittsburgh, but they were lucky to beat Carolina at home the other day (outshot 18-4 in the first period, what happened there??). Tampa got rid of Brian Boyle and Filppula via trades. A source of concern for the Sabres is Kyle Okposo who did not return in the 3^rd period of the last game, and he did not practice today. I still like the Sabres with such lines at home vs Tampa.

If you want to go with long-shot picks, I offer you two choices: Devils +248 (decimal 3.48) at Boston is the first one. Rask often gets a night off after playing 3 games in a row, which has been the case so I estimate Khudobin has a 70% chance of being the starter in this game (his numbers aren’t nearly as good as Rask’s). You could also go with Vancouver +231 (decimal 3.31) in Los Angeles. I don’t get these odds, yes the Kings have the better team, but they are still a mediocre team. People may be getting overexcited about the return of Jonathan Quick. But remember that Peter Budaj did an awesome job in his absence.

I also like the Panthers -143 (decimal 1.70) at home against the Stars. They have a much better team than Dallas, and they acquired Thomas Vanek. Roberto Luongo is hurt, but James Reimer has been just as solid (if not better) this season so no worries there.

Finally, I’m going with Edmonton at -206 (decimal 1.49) vs Detroit. I rarely pick such big favorites, but wow, this one looks appealing for several reasons. Detroit traded their second-best scorer Thomas Vanek. They will be playing the second of back-to-back games, while Edmonton got 3 days’ rest. And to top it all off, Jared Coreau has a high chance of starting in net since Mrazek is expected to start Friday night (which would be his sixth straight start). Coreau’s numbers have been bad.

If you like my analyses (I also project NBA games), --

Have a great weekend!!

Professor MJ

[Professor-MJ]

WOW yesterday I mentioned the best value went to Buffalo +126, the line has now dropped to -104, I hope you guys were also able to grab the early line!

[Scrivero]

I actually do 90% of my stuff using the free statistical software R. But you need to know how to program in R in order to use it, which I'm pretty good at. So I copy-paste datasets from Excel into text files, which are then read by R, and then I can do pretty much anything I want. Sorry I can't help you with Excel... I'll keep you posted when I'm done analyzing this stuff!

Thanks for the reply! I think I should learn how to use a similar program (and to learn how to program). There are tons of statistical tests I want to run but the excel formulas are just very difficult to do (for me, as I am not an excel expert). So I have been forced to do some stuff semi-manually (doing 2 or 3 statistics separately and combining them, hence increasing the chance of mistakes) instead and it takes tons of time.

By the way, how has it gone so far with the results? I know it doesnt matter with such small sample size but still, would be fun to follow! And it doenst matter because if the ROI is ca 10 %, then is is just that in the long run, the variance just makes it appear higher or lower in the short run.

Do you think that you will do any small or bigger adjustments to how you calculate your picks? How well do you trust that you get the correct ROI for the games? Most of my systems base on back testing the actual system later, and just making some assumptions first and starting the systems with that. Like my Under system where I play the U4,5 games that give me a minimum +12,5 % ROI. I started the system as an Over and Under system, and just played every game that have odds of minimum +215 (I assumed that every game is a coin flip of U/O 5,5 and U/O4,5). Had great results but after back testing I noticed that only X amount of games become U4,5, and having ca +225 odds would make a big loss during a season. So I just kept the Overs which showed a profit with Y amount of games ending O5,5 with ca +225 odds. Then I moved to Pinnacle with bigger odds (and noticed more odds available for each game) and back tested the actual odds of games ending O5,5 and U4,5. This showed that actually the O5,5 games would make big loss and the U4,5 games would make a big profit! So I left out the O5,5 games and now have just the U4,5 games.

That story just reflects the matter of small changes and/or more back testing/reacting to short term results/new information leading to big changes in the system leading to, eventually, more profits/higher ROI.

[Scrivero]

WOW yesterday I mentioned the best value went to Buffalo +126, the line has now dropped to -104, I hope you guys were also able to grab the early line!

Niceeee. One of my systems have similar plays tonight as your system. The system I have is 100 % much less sophisticated than yours though. My system for tonight gave Canucks, Devils, Detroit, Colorado and Philadelphia. You will probably figure out my way of calculating the picks for that system. BOL to us all!

[Professor-MJ]

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world! (sorry for the tables below looking funny)
Today we may have the highest estimated ROI (Return On Investment) on a game since I started making my daily NHL projections. We also have another good value bet. Here are the details:

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Stars	+223	+281	3.23	3.81
Capitals	-251	-281	1.40	1.36

Tip: No value bet. Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Pick Bruins -141 +104 1.71 2.04 Senators +128 -104 2.28 1.96 X

Tip: Bet the Senators. Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Pick Rangers +109 -153 2.09 1.65 X Lightning -120 +153 1.83 2.53

Tip: BET THE RANGERS!!! Bookie PROF. MJ Bookie PROF. MJ Pick Sharks -107 -119 1.93 1.84 X Jets -103 +119 1.97 2.19

Tip: You could consider betting the Sharks.

Grab the Rangers +109 (decimal 2.09) in Tampa Bay. On one side, New York will be without Grabner and Girardi, while the Lightning have lost Boyle and Filppula via trades. Yes, the Rangers have lost 3 of their last 4 games, but they played some very tough opponents: Columbus, Washington, Boston and Montreal. Their power play has been 1/33 over their last 13 games. It won’t last forever. The Rangers have the best road record in the NHL, including 3 straight.

I’m taking the Senators +128 (decimal 2.28) at home versus Boston. The line fluctuated between +100 and +108 early on to make it a no bet, but at this time of writing it is now up to +128. Since the statistical models view Ottawa as a very slight favorite, this becomes a profitable bet. Both teams have been playing very well recently. The Sens have won 8 of their last 12, while the Bruins are 8-2 since firing Claude Julien. Ottawa has beaten Boston in the last 3 meetings (5 of the last 6).

Betting the Sharks at -107 (decimal 1.93) is a borderline profitable bet. Don’t take odds that are lower than that. San Jose is playing the second of back-to-back games after losing 3-1 in Minnesota last night, which was their first loss in regulation in about a month. Winnipeg was not playing last night, but it will be their third game in four days. Aaron Bell may be in net for the Sharks, but that’s no big deal since he’s been great this year.

Have a good Monday!

Professor MJ

[Scrivero]

Thanks man! I have a feeling that you will hit both picks. Tailed for 1 unit each and a 1 unit double as well.

By the way, I back tested a new system yesterday and got some awesome results. Very very high ROI but very very high variance. I will try to reduce the variance, at the same time keeping my bet size as big as possible and the ROI as high as possible. The statistical analysis will take forever in Excel though. I will try to learn R as soon as possible. I actually even tested the system on yesterday's round with 66 individual bets, of which 2 hit with odds of +2900 each, yielding a loss of -0,06 units. Average odds were ca +8000 per bet.

[Professor-MJ]

Hello fellow NHL fans from around the world!

I’m back projecting lines one day in advance to try to take advantage of favorable odds (hopefully!). I have four plays with an estimated ROI of 6%-8%, and one play which looks significantly more profitable with an estimated ROI of 11.3%. Let’s see the full projections:

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Wings	+153	+203	2.53	3.03
Leafs	-170	-203	1.59	1.49	X

Tip: Bet the Leafs.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Rangers	+110	-102	2.10	1.98	X
Panthers	-121	+102	1.83	2.02

Tip: Bet the Rangers.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Flyers	+103	-113	2.03	1.88	X
Sabres	-114	+113	1.88	2.13

Tip: Bet the Flyers.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Blues	+145	+219	2.45	3.19
Wild	-161	-219	1.62	1.46	X

Tip: Bet the Wild.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Hurricanes	-150	-158	1.67	1.63
Avalanche	+136	+158	2.36	2.58

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Islanders	+136	+173	2.36	2.73
Oilers	-150	-173	1.67	1.58	X

Tip: Bet the Oilers.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Canadiens	-160	-171	1.63	1.58
Canucks	+144	+171	2.44	2.71

Tip: No value bet.

	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Bookie	PROF. MJ	Pick
Predators	+109	+104	2.09	2.04
Ducks	-120	-104	1.83	1.96

Tip: No value bet.

My favorite pick of the day has to go with the Wild at -161 (decimal 1.62) at home against the Blues. The home team has won the last 4 meetings between these two teams, including 5-1 and 3-1 wins by the Wild in Minnesota this season. The projections even took into account the possibility of Darcy Kuemper getting the start. He has been posting much weaker numbers than starter Devan Dubnyk, so this bet would be even better if Dubnyk gets the call.

I’m taking the Leafs at -170 (decimal 1.59) at home versus Detroit. The Wings are playing the first of back-to-back games: they might turn to backup goalie Jared Coreau considering Mrazek has started the last 7 games (the projections were made assuming a 50/50 chance). Gustav Nyquist missed practice Monday because of stomach bug, so he’s fairly likely to be out for that game.

For the second night in a row, I’m going with the Rangers, this time +110 (decimal 2.10) in Florida. Henrik Lundqvist should start since Raanta will be in net Monday night. I deducted 5% to New York’s chances of winning to account for the fatigue factor (second of back-to-back games), but we still get a value bet here.

I recommend the Flyers +103 (decimal 2.03) in Buffalo. It will be the Sabres third game in 4 nights and they will be without their second leading scorer Kyle Okposo. The last 4 meetings between Philadelphia and Buffalo have been won by the home team. Prior to that streak, the road team had won 4 in a row!

The last pick goes to Edmonton -150 (decimal 1.67) versus the Islanders. The Oilers have played only one game over the last 6 days, so they will be well-rested, while the Islanders will be playing a 4^th game in 6 nights. The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams.

Good luck!!

Professor MJ
--

[AskJonny4Notes]

This is great stuff MJ...keep it up!

[Scrivero]

You made us loads of money yesterday man!

[AskJonny4Notes]

March Madness is approaching...I sense some nice NHL values in the next couple weeks

[Professor-MJ]

This is great stuff MJ...keep it up!

d

You're welcome!! Doing my best!

[MikeyPicks1]

1-30-17
2-08-17
2-13-17

[Scrivero]

Im taking your highest odds again, Rangers and Philly. 1 unit each and 1 unit for double of both. BOL!

[JerseyGodFather]

Love the flyers play tonight.

[Scrivero]

Im taking your highest odds again, Rangers and Philly. 1 unit each and 1 unit for double of both. BOL!

Aaaaand you made me good money again, thanks!

[Professor-MJ]

There are 10 games Thursday night and I have 4 value bets for you. Nothing exceptional, but still profitable so let’s hope we can hit 3 out of 4. At this time of writing, the line on Ottawa-Arizona has not opened yet so I will give you some guidelines below. Let’s have a look at the full projections!

RANGERS-HURRICANES (Pinnacle -129 vs +117, Prof MJ -147 vs +147)
FLYERS-LEAFS (Pinnacle +127 vs -140, Prof MJ +122 vs -122)
WILD-LIGHTNING (Pinnacle -113 vs +102, Prof MJ -143 vs +143)
DUCKS-BLACKHAWKS (Pinnacle +147 vs -163, Prof MJ +186 vs -186)
DEVILS-AVALANCHE (Pinnacle -116 vs +105, Prof MJ -109 vs +109)
CANADIENS-FLAMES (Pinnacle +102 vs -113, Prof MJ +104 vs -104)
SENATORS-COYOTES (Pinnacle OFF THE BOARD, Prof MJ -113 vs +113)
ISLANDERS-CANUCKS (Pinnacle -140 vs +127, Prof MJ -123 vs +123)
PREDATORS-KINGS (Pinnacle +118 vs -130, Prof MJ +104 vs -104)
CAPITALS-SHARKS (Pinnacle -108 vs -102, Prof MJ -123 vs +123)

I’m betting the Wild -113 (decimal 1.88) at Tampa Bay, despite some factors going against them. The home team has won the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Wild beat Tampa 2-1 in Minnesota last October. I have deducted 5% to the Wild’s estimated win probability to account for the goalie situation: most of the time Devan Dubnyk starts 3 games before letting Kuemper get the nod. Since Dubnyk has started the last 3 games and they are playing the first leg of back-to-back games, I believe Kuemper has a 75% chance of starting this game. This isn’t good news if you are betting Minnesota because he hasn’t been nearly as good as Dubnyk. I also adjusted for the recent trades: the Wild obtained Martin Hanzal and Ryan White, while Tampa lost Boyle and Filppula.

I like the Predators +118 (decimal 2.18) in Los Angeles. The Kings have had 4 days’ rest, which I don’t believe is good news for them. We saw how teams coming off their bye week did poorly this season. The Kings have a 4-9 record over their last 13 games, but they won both meetings against the Preds this year. Nashville went on a 4-game winning streak before losing 3 straight.

I am also taking Washington -108 (decimal 1.93) in San Jose. The Caps had won 5 of their last 6 games before unexpectedly losing 4-2 at home against a mediocre Dallas Stars team. We’ll see how they respond. The Sharks have won 4 of their last 5 games. They also won the only meeting between the two teams this year by a 3-0 score in Washington. As a matter of fact, San Jose has won 8 of the last 10 meetings against the Caps, but both losses came in San Jose. I fully expect Braden Holtby and Martin Jones to be the starters.

Finally, I’m picking the Rangers (again!) -129 (decimal 1.78) in Carolina. Much like the Wild pick, some factors are playing against them but the numbers are still telling me to back them up. First, New York will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. Second, the home team has won 6 of the past 7 meetings and all 3 this year have been very close games (4-2, 3-2 and 3-2). Cam Ward should be back in net since Eddie Lack lost the game (Paul Maurice has been alternating following losses). Still, the Rangers have a much superior team so I see value in this line.

As mentioned in the introduction, the line has not opened yet on the Senators-Coyotes game. Bet Ottawa if you can get +100 or better (decimal: 2.00 or more). Bet Arizona if the line is +124 or better (decimal: 2.24 or more). My feeling is we will get some value with Arizona. Several things are going against Ottawa: second game in two nights (3rd in 4 nights, 4th in 6 nights), Condon should get the start since Anderson has been confirmed for tonight, Mike Smith is very likely to be in net since Domingue started the next-to-last game, and injuries to Bobby Ryan, Chris Neil and now Kyle Turris (3rd best scorer for Ottawa). I wouldn’t be surprised if the general public underestimates those factors.

Good luck!!!

Professor MJ

[Scrivero]

Thanks man. Im taking the Rangers and the Wild for 1 unit each as well as the double of both.

[ZdenoK]

Nash and Lundqvist out for NYR.

[Mike Huntertz]

There are 10 games Thursday night and I have 4 value bets for you. Nothing exceptional, but still profitable so let’s hope we can hit 3 out of 4. At this time of writing, the line on Ottawa-Arizona has not opened yet so I will give you some guidelines below. Let’s have a look at the full projections!

RANGERS-HURRICANES (Pinnacle -129 vs +117, Prof MJ -147 vs +147)
FLYERS-LEAFS (Pinnacle +127 vs -140, Prof MJ +122 vs -122)
WILD-LIGHTNING (Pinnacle -113 vs +102, Prof MJ -143 vs +143)
DUCKS-BLACKHAWKS (Pinnacle +147 vs -163, Prof MJ +186 vs -186)
DEVILS-AVALANCHE (Pinnacle -116 vs +105, Prof MJ -109 vs +109)
CANADIENS-FLAMES (Pinnacle +102 vs -113, Prof MJ +104 vs -104)
SENATORS-COYOTES (Pinnacle OFF THE BOARD, Prof MJ -113 vs +113)
ISLANDERS-CANUCKS (Pinnacle -140 vs +127, Prof MJ -123 vs +123)
PREDATORS-KINGS (Pinnacle +118 vs -130, Prof MJ +104 vs -104)
CAPITALS-SHARKS (Pinnacle -108 vs -102, Prof MJ -123 vs +123)

I’m betting the Wild -113 (decimal 1.88) at Tampa Bay, despite some factors going against them. The home team has won the last 8 meetings between these two teams. The Wild beat Tampa 2-1 in Minnesota last October. I have deducted 5% to the Wild’s estimated win probability to account for the goalie situation: most of the time Devan Dubnyk starts 3 games before letting Kuemper get the nod. Since Dubnyk has started the last 3 games and they are playing the first leg of back-to-back games, I believe Kuemper has a 75% chance of starting this game. This isn’t good news if you are betting Minnesota because he hasn’t been nearly as good as Dubnyk. I also adjusted for the recent trades: the Wild obtained Martin Hanzal and Ryan White, while Tampa lost Boyle and Filppula.

I like the Predators +118 (decimal 2.18) in Los Angeles. The Kings have had 4 days’ rest, which I don’t believe is good news for them. We saw how teams coming off their bye week did poorly this season. The Kings have a 4-9 record over their last 13 games, but they won both meetings against the Preds this year. Nashville went on a 4-game winning streak before losing 3 straight.

I am also taking Washington -108 (decimal 1.93) in San Jose. The Caps had won 5 of their last 6 games before unexpectedly losing 4-2 at home against a mediocre Dallas Stars team. We’ll see how they respond. The Sharks have won 4 of their last 5 games. They also won the only meeting between the two teams this year by a 3-0 score in Washington. As a matter of fact, San Jose has won 8 of the last 10 meetings against the Caps, but both losses came in San Jose. I fully expect Braden Holtby and Martin Jones to be the starters.

Finally, I’m picking the Rangers (again!) -129 (decimal 1.78) in Carolina. Much like the Wild pick, some factors are playing against them but the numbers are still telling me to back them up. First, New York will be playing a 3rd game in 4 nights. Second, the home team has won 6 of the past 7 meetings and all 3 this year have been very close games (4-2, 3-2 and 3-2). Cam Ward should be back in net since Eddie Lack lost the game (Paul Maurice has been alternating following losses). Still, the Rangers have a much superior team so I see value in this line.

As mentioned in the introduction, the line has not opened yet on the Senators-Coyotes game. Bet Ottawa if you can get +100 or better (decimal: 2.00 or more). Bet Arizona if the line is +124 or better (decimal: 2.24 or more). My feeling is we will get some value with Arizona. Several things are going against Ottawa: second game in two nights (3rd in 4 nights, 4th in 6 nights), Condon should get the start since Anderson has been confirmed for tonight, Mike Smith is very likely to be in net since Domingue started the next-to-last game, and injuries to Bobby Ryan, Chris Neil and now Kyle Turris (3rd best scorer for Ottawa). I wouldn’t be surprised if the general public underestimates those factors.

Good luck!!!

Professor MJ

Nice stuff, GL