Happy birthday… to me! Yes, today is my birthday, and it will also be the beginning of my daily NHL projections. I'm a statistics university professor from Canada.
For now I’m using three different statistical models and I intend to add a couple more in the future to refine the projections even more. Enjoy the read!
Bookie
PROF MJ
Pick
Rangers
-101
-157
X
Leafs
-109
+157
Mitch Marner is out for the Leafs, which hurts the team (their 2nd best scorer). The Rangers have recorded at least one point in 8 of their past 9 contests. These two teams met twice this year: the road team won each game. The Rangers have won 64.4% (38 out of 59) of their games this year and are facing a middle-of-the-pack team. Yes, they are on the road, but with a key piece missing for the Leafs, why wouldn’t you bet New York at -101? What a bargain!
**Final pick: Bet the Rangers at -101 (1.99) for a ROI of 21.6%.**
Bookie
PROF MJ
Pick
Islanders
+143
+137
Canadiens
-158
-137
The Islanders have been rejuvenated since firing their head coach, as they are 11-4-2 under coach Doug Weight. Meanwhile, the Habs have provided Claude Julien his first win with the team in a 3-2 shootout win over the Rangers. It snapped a bad 5-game streak where Carey Price allowed 3 goals or more. He looked sharp and energized following the one-week break. Montreal hasn’t won two consecutive games in nearly two months!
**Final pick: No profitable bet here, but bet the Islanders if the line moves to +150 (2.50) or higher.**
Bookie
PROF MJ
Pick
Flames
+135
+138
Lightning
-149
-138
The projections above were made assuming Ben Bishop would be in net for the Lightning. Jonathan Drouin has the flu and looks like he has a 50/50 chance of playing tonight. Both teams are on fire: Calgary has a 6-2-1 record lately versus 5-0-2 for Tampa Bay.
**Final pick: No profitable bet here.**
Bookie
PROF MJ
Pick
Avalanche
+218
+253
Predators
-245
-253
At this time of writing, Colorado’s goalie had not been announced yet, so we are assuming Calvin Pickard will be in net. Nashville has won all 4 games against the Avalanche this season. The Predators have had trouble starting games recently: they have trailed by three goals in 4 of their past 5 games.
**Final pick: No profitable bet here.**
Bookie
PROF MJ
Pick
Coyotes
+222
+269
Blackhawks
-250
-269
Chicago has won 7 of their last 8 games, including a 5-3 win over Minnesota sparked by Jonathan Toews’ five-point night.
**Final pick: No profitable bet here. Bet the Blackhawks if the line moves to -225 (1.44) or higher.**
Bookie
PROF MJ
Pick
Bruins
+121
+152
Kings
-134
-152
X
After winning their first 4 games under new coach Cassidy, the Bruins lost 5-3 in Anaheim. It was their 9th loss in 11 games in the state of California. Two big things are going against Boston tonight (on top of their recent failures in California): Tuukka Rask is taking a day off which means Khudobin will be in net after appearing in only 9 games this year, and Boston is playing the second of back-to-back games, where they are 2-6-2 in such circumstances this year.
**Final pick: Bet the Kings at -134 (1.75) for a ROI of 5.3%.**
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Professor MJ's daily NHL projections
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