[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
Over/Under system, 1 unit each:
1. Rangers-Islanders U4,5 +342 LOSS (2-4)
2. Stars-Wild U4,5 +419 WIN!! (1-3)

4th system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Winnipeg ML +197 LOSS 3-4OT
2. Arizona ML +195 WIN!! (5-3)

Profit of +4,14 units, great!

Totals so far (including the previous night's Toronto loss):
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+16,625 units (singles), +20,115 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 5-7, +7,55 units

3. The tail -system (on a break, inactive, started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased, active, started 16th February 2017).
Record: 1-1 +0,95 units

All systems total: +31,151 units

[Scrivero]

No Over/Under system games tonight. Pittsburgh-Columbus would have been one but they always take out the chance of betting nothing lower than Under 5,25 when the line is pulled up to 6,5.

We have a play in the 4th system though:
1. Colorado ML +235

This is also in Mickey's Bye week system, but is also playable in our new system, hence we include it here.

Tomorrow we get to play some Early goal system bets again.

[Scrivero]

Pitt-Columbus would have been an U4,5, I wish they would just offer that option no matter how high the line goes. Odds would be just insane. There is a reason why they dont offer it though.

Our 4th system result:
1. Colorado ML +235 WIN!! (2-1OT)

Profit of +2,35 units, great!

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+16,625 units (singles), +20,115 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 5-7, +7,55 units

3. The tail -system (on a break, inactive, started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased, active, started 16th of February 2017).
Record: 2-1 +3,30 units

All systems total: +33,501 units

[Scrivero]

4th system bet tonight, 1 unit:
1. Arizona ML +159

Early goal -system plays for tonight will be, 0,5 units each:
- Sabres or Blues
- Winnipeg
- Detroit

Normally we would have Washington and Montreal (instead of Winnipeg and Detroit) in the Early goal bets but as they are off their Bye weeks, we will do the opposite.

We are also gonna play all the Bye week plays from Mickey's thread but none of them goes to our systems so they wont be tracked here.

Posting the Over/Under plays later as they become available. They will most likely be only TB-Stars and Ottawa-Toronto both U4,5. Not sure if we could get some U4,5regs as well.

[Scrivero]

Another 4th system bet for tonight, 1 unit:
Winnipeg ML +161

Over/Under-system bets, 1 unit each:
1. TB-Dallas U4,5 +368 (its already at +411. The thing is to get the bet in before the line goes up to 6 or 6,5, because then the game no longer has playable odds. Take it at +411. We will learn to get the right odds as we do this more).
2. Senators-Toronto U4,5 +... (its now at +286, will wait for it to go above 300. If it goes down we will not play it). ol ok it just went to +315, we will take it. It might go up more too, we need to follow it to learn to predict the odds. Anything above +300 is very very ok for us. still, each e.g. +50 more in the odds gives us half a unit extra each time we hit.

We also took the double with 0,2 units with +1938.

Good luck to us all!

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
4th system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Winnipeg ML +161 WIN!!
2. Arizona ML +159 LOSS

Over/Under-system bets, 1 unit each:
1. TB-Dallas U4,5 +368 LOSS
2. Senators-Toronto U4,5 +315 LOSS
Double of 0,2 units LOSS

Early goal system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Winnipeg in regulation +500 WIN!!
2. Buffalo in regulation +300 WIN!!

Total for the night for all systems: +2,41 units, good! Overall we won +7,34 units when added the Mickey's Bye week stuff, but those are not included in out totals overall, as they are not a part of any of our systems.

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+14,625 units (singles), +17,915 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 7-7, +11,55 units

3. The tail -system (on a break, inactive, started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased, active, started 16th of February 2017).
Record: 3-2 +3,91 units

All systems total: +35,911 units

[Scrivero]

TODAY'S BETS:
4th system bets, 0,5 units:
1. Detroit ML +255
- Only 0,5 units because I have not backtested this system at all and I do not trust it completely even if it is +4 units in 3 days.

Over/Under-system bets, 1 unit each:
1. Jets-Senators U4,5 +307
2. Detroit-Pittsburgh U4,5 +... Its now at +248 but I am expecting at least +300, AT LEAST.
3. Toronto-Carolina U4,5 +... Not out yet, I am expecting at least +370.
4. Washington-Rangers U4,5 +... Not out yet, I am expecting at least +300 closer to the game. Ok, its out with +296 now but I will wait a bit.

Early goal system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Washington or Rangers, whichever comes.
2. Detroit or Pittsburgh, whicever comes. (this could go against my 4th system bet but like I said, I dont trust it completely yet).

Good luck to us!

Edit. Toronto-Carolina might not be a play after all, as the line went from 5,5 to 6 and the U4,5 or whatever they have as lowest is still not available. Ok, now its out with U4,75 being the lowest at +237. Lets see if that goes up more.

Edit 2. Ok, I took the Caps-Rangers at +296 because the Over 5,5 is much lower than the Jets-Senators but the U4,5 is almost the same. Early game too so +296 could be the highest for that.

Edit 3. Ok, the Toronto game now has U4,5 too, at +311. Im gonna risk it a bit and wait if it would stay at U4,5 and if we could get it closer to +400.

[Scrivero]

Ok, we hit the Caps-Rangers U4,5 at +296, nice! We did not hit our Early goal bet. We bet Caps to win in reg at +300.

We are basically freerolling our systems the rest of the evening, because that hit was 1 unit bet. The early goal bet was 0,5 units. The Jets game is a 1 unit game but the Toronto and Detroit games are only 0,5 units. The odds went down to (or did not climb over) ca +255 in both so we took what we could but with half of a normal bet. So altogether we bet 3,5 units and now won 3,9. Gonna sleep, not gonna wait for the Detroit-Pitts game for the early goal system. So we are +0,4 units positive. Lets hit that Jets game shall we!

Oh I forgot, we have Detroit 0,5 units ML in our 4th system. So we are down -0,1 units if nothing more hits. Lets hope that game is 1-0 for Detroit.

Good night all.

[SpookyFellow]

Yes

[Mr Handsome]

I see that your system is working out well and I have being traiLing some bets, but I'm not understanding 4,5 under or overs. Does this mean you able to bet under4.5 goals?

[Scrivero]

I see that your system is working out well and I have being traiLing some bets, but I'm not understanding 4,5 under or overs. Does this mean you able to bet under4.5 goals?

Yes, you understood correctly. I play Under 4,5 goals. That option is offered by most sportbooks/betting sites I think. I bet U4,5 instead of U5 because the odds are huge compared to U5.
RESULTS:
4th system bets, 0,5 units:
1. Detroit ML +255 WIN!!
+1,275 units

Over/Under-system bets:
1. Jets-Senators U4,5 +307, 1 unit, LOSS
2. Detroit-Pittsburgh U4,5 +255, 0,5 units LOSS
3. Toronto-Carolina U4,5 +268 0,5 units, WIN!!
4. Washington-Rangers U4,5 +296, 1 units, WIN!!
+2,8 units

Early goal system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Washington +300 LOSS
-0,5 units.

Total for the night: +3,575 units

Nice!
Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+17,425 units (singles), +20,715 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 7-8, +11,05 units

3. The tail -system (on a break, inactive, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased, active, might need backtesting, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-2 +5,185 units

5. The 5th system (not started yet, needs backtesting):

All systems total: +39,486 units

No system plays tonight, none, zero, nada.We can conclude that we are very happy with the Over/Under system as well as the Early goal system. We sadly might never see another tail system bet. It relies too much on what I would choose to bet. And I am not good at choosing what to bet. We are surprised about the success of the 4th system but we still dont trust it completely. The new 5th system is VERY VERY VERY exciting. Its very very very easy to backtest too.

[Scrivero]

One addition to our (Over)/Under system:
- I will not reveal why, but we will start playing also some U4,5 games with odds of ca +250, even if we normally require at least ca +300 odds. I am not revealing the reason because if this system really works the way it seems, I dont want to give away everything that I "know" or have come to understand, so that sportbookss can not react to all the things in the system, if they ever even would react in any way.

We also might start playing some overs again, and again Im not revealing why.

Posting today's plays soon.

[eddycash]

Wsup with the commas instead of decimal points?

[Scrivero]

Today's plays:
1. Pittsburgh-Carolina U4,5 +310, 1 unit
2. Pittsburgh-Carolina U4,5 REG +235, 0,5 units
3. Jets-Toronto U4,5 REG +200, 0,5 units
4. Islander-Wings U4,5 +278, 1 unit

Possible other plays (Pinnacle): Jets-Leafs, Edmonton-TB, Calgary-Nashville
- Will play them if the odds go up more, for 1 unit each. If they stay where they are or go up a bit I might play them for 0,5 units, lets see.

No early goal system bets, no 4th system bets.

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Wsup with the commas instead of decimal points?

Not sure, thats just how Ive done all my life; commas instead of decimal points I might change that, mayyyybe, just maybe.

[Scrivero]

Today's plays:
1. Pittsburgh-Carolina U4,5 +310, 1 unit
2. Pittsburgh-Carolina U4,5 REG +235, 0,5 units
3. Jets-Toronto U4,5 REG +200, 0,5 units
4. Islander-Wings U4,5 +278, 1 unit
5. Edmonton-TB U4,5 +263, 0,5 units
6. Calgary-Nashville U4,5 +254, 0,5 units

If the Winnipeg-Toronto game does not give a chance to play U4,5 then it will not be a play on Pinnacle. We will see.

[v0id125]

Tailed

[w@lt]

Very nice! Another good night! I think about +3 units!

[Scrivero]

Thanks guys, it was indeed a great night! Closer to ca +5.5 units, will post the exact calculations and stats later Congrats to the ones who tailed too!

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
1. Pittsburgh-Carolina U4,5 +310, 1 unit WIN!!
2. Pittsburgh-Carolina U4,5 REG +235, 0,5 units WIN!!
3. Jets-Toronto U4,5 REG +200, 0,5 units LOSS
4. Islander-Wings U4,5 +278, 1 unit WIN!!
5. Edmonton-TB U4,5 +263, 0,5 units LOSS
6. Calgary-Nashville U4,5 +254, 0,5 units LOSS

Total profit +5,555 units, great!

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+22,98 units (singles), +26,27 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 7-8, +11,05 units

3. The tail -system (on a break, inactive, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased, active, might need backtesting, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-2 +5,185 units

5. The 5th system (not started yet, needs backtesting):

All systems total (started 7th of January 2017): +45,041 units

Our totals are going up fast during the last 4 nights. We will hit a wall at some point, but lets rack up the units while we're hot!

[Scrivero]

NOTHING playable in any of our systems tonight, damn. This is probably just the second time this has happened since starting the systems in January. BUT... I think we need more systems, we cant just have days off

Next up:

BACKTESTING!

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased, active, might need backtesting, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-2 +5,185 units

5. The 5th system (NEW! not started yet, needs backtesting):
6. The 6th system (NEW! not started yet, needs backtesting):

And yes, you saw right... we have a sixth system And Im an super excited about it too. Super easy to backtest as well, just like the 5th system. When I say super easy to back test.. I mean that its easy, as in not difficult, but that doesnt mean that it will be fast. It will be SLOW for both. Backtestingn the 4th system will be fast and I might just do that first.

First of all, cleaning up the house! Ok, forgot to post this message 40 minutes ago, the cleaning is now done. So now gotta take care of the baby for a few hours, maybe give the wife a free night then, so backtesting starts maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow. Hopefully done by Sunday!

So yea, most likely nothing will become playable tonight, too bad.

[MikeyPicks1]

Pinny wasn't offering me REG totals yesterday, but great nonetheless. I'm interested to see how many of these "systems" you can come up with. The ones you're currently on are looking WAY strong.

[Scrivero]

Pinny wasn't offering me REG totals yesterday, but great nonetheless. I'm interested to see how many of these "systems" you can come up with. The ones you're currently on are looking WAY strong.

Thanks man! Yea Pinny doesnt offer them. Coolbet does. We mostly (maybe 95 %) play the Pinnacle U4,5 so you should not miss many of our bets Ya there will be more systems Im sure. I consider these systems like products of a company. Some are cash cows, bringing in loads and loads year after year. Some only make a fast profit and die as fast as they come to the market. Some dont make any money, and we try to invest as little time and money on them as possible and see their flaws as soon as possible. Some of our good "products" might go out of the market because of regulatory changes (in this case sportbooks making some adjustments, rule changes coming to goalie equipment size or whatever). So we need to be inventing new good products all the time, and testing them.

But yea, current systems look STRONG

[Scrivero]

TODAY'S PLAYS:
4th system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Colorado ML +239
2. Arizona ML +235
Double of both +1009, 0,2 units.

4th system -1,5 trial, 0,25 units each:
1. Colorado -1,5, +678
2. Arizona -1,5 +675
Double of both +5805, 0,2 units.

Over/Under-system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Rangers-Toronto U4,75 +289
2. Rangers-Toronto U4,5 REG +245
Just bet 1 unit for the U4,75, if you dont have the REG-options.

Three more games might still become playable, I doubt it though:
- Islanders-Canadiens
- Calgary-TB
- Arizona-Chicago

No early goal bets tonight. No 5th or 6th system bets.

Good luck to us!

[eddycash]

What does the U4,75 mean? I did not know they offered an under 4.75 goals line? How can you get .75 of a goal?

[Mr Handsome]

I see why your placing Arizona and Colorado to win outright. But I am highly doubtfully that either one win. What's the logic behind this..seems like your just throwing away money?

[Scrivero]

What does the U4,75 mean? I did not know they offered an under 4.75 goals line? How can you get .75 of a goal?

U4,75 means that if the game ends with 4 goals or less, we will win the whole bet. If it ends 5 goals, we lose 1/2 of our bet and the other 1/2 of our bet is a Push. If it ends 6 goals or more, we lose the whole bet.

Similarly U5,25 would mean that 4 goals or less wins us the whole bet. If it ends 5 goals we win 1/2 of the bet and the other 1/2 of the bet is a Push. If it ends 6 goals or more then we lose the whole bet.

[Scrivero]

I see why your placing Arizona and Colorado to win outright. But I am highly doubtfully that either one win. What's the logic behind this..seems like your just throwing away money?

If you mean the -1,5 handicap bets, they are partly just for the heck of it, but also to win money. If either of the teams can win ML, they can also win by a 2 goal margin. If we look at both matches separately, the underdog must win by a 2 goal margin once in every 7 matches to give us a +10,7 % ROI. I like those chances.

If you mean the ML-bets, welllll, we have not back tested the system at all, and thats why we only bet 0,5 units per match. Ourrecord is 4-2 +5,185 units but it could be just a fluke. We need to back test it.

The parlay-bets could be throwing money away, but statistically it actually gives us a positive ROI if we trust that every x of y parlays hit. We need to back test for sure the individual games to see how often we "should" hit a parlay.

We partly do these "tests" or "trials" also to see how it "feels" to bet certain bets. I remember when I first started with creating these systems, I was doing puck lines for favorites, and they never "felt" good. They had a bad record too and lost units. I had a similar feeling with the Tail system bets too. They never felt good, even if they made some money, I have stopped that system. The same way the Unders "feel" good, they feel like they have a chance to hit every night and they seem to hit very often.

But yea, thanks for asking, its fun and useful to think about why one does what one does

[Nowalkneeded]

I see why your placing Arizona and Colorado to win outright. But I am highly doubtfully that either one win. What's the logic behind this..seems like your just throwing away money?

Thing is he is not capping games, the system is just looking for value, at odds +200 we just need to hit 1/3 of those to have a profit, doesn't matter if they are likely to win, there's always a possibility and over the course of large volume and loads of plays, eventually you'll hit more than 1/3 (historically)

[Scrivero]

Thing is he is not capping games, the system is just looking for value, at odds +200 we just need to hit 1/3 of those to have a profit, doesn't matter if they are likely to win, there's always a possibility and over the course of large volume and loads of plays, eventually you'll hit more than 1/3 (historically)

Thats exactly it, you actually released the rules for the system right there, its that simple. I need to learn to say things as clearly and as concise as you do

[Nowalkneeded]

Thats exactly it, you actually released the rules for the system right there, its that simple. I need to learn to say things as clearly and as concise as you do

I must say I love this approach, you don't have to spend a lot of time looking at the card and capping games that may or may not hit... There are probably three people in the forum that can actually do it with consistency over a season...

Once we eliminate the subjective analysis and treat it like an investment, might be easier to make the plays, instead of capping games for hours, getting lots of juicy lines and lose a lot

[Scrivero]

Ya thats exactly the way I think. I have tried to cap games but Im certainly not one of the people who can do it. It also takes out the "why didnt I do that, why did I do that" -questioning when there is really no debate on whether to play a game or not. The good thing is that it feels just as good winning by trusting a system. The awesome thing is, like you said, its fast to pick plays. Can probably have 5 such systems and go through all the possible plays for them by just glancing the games and the odds. I love those systems the most. Other systems need a bit more effort when choosing the plays but they are good to have too. My goal is to get at least 10 working systems for NHL, squeeze every bit of value out of it.

[Scrivero]

We hit the Rangers-Toronto game for ca +265. We did not hit out 4th system bets. Profit for the day ca +0.75 units.

We need to backtest the 4th system. I will not bet it until we do. If we see that it does not work, then we will just keep the ca +3.50 units it made us and move to other systems.

Exact stats and today's plays later!

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
4th system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Colorado ML +239 LOSS
2. Arizona ML +235 LOSS
Double of both +1009, 0,2 units. LOSS
-1,2 units.

4th system -1,5 trial, 0,25 units each:
1. Colorado -1,5, +678 LOSS
2. Arizona -1,5 +675 LOSS
Double of both +5805, 0,2 units. LOSS
-0,7 units.

Over/Under-system bets, 0,5 units each:
1. Rangers-Toronto U4,75 +289 WIN!!
2. Rangers-Toronto U4,5 REG +245 WIN!!
+2,67 units.

Total for the night: +0,77 units.

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (every day, started 10th of January 2017):
+25,65 units (singles), +28,94 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (only on weekends, started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 7-8, +11,05 units

3. The tail -system (on a break, inactive, started 1st of February 2017):
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. The 4th system (rules unreleased but you can guess them, active, no more plays before backtesting, started 16th of February 2017):
Record: 4-4 (4-6 with the -1,5 trials) +3,285 units

5. The 5th system (not started yet, needs backtesting):

6. The 6th system (not started yet, needs backtesting):

All systems total (started 7th of January 2017): +45,811 units

We have gotten +units now 6 nights in a row, altogether ca +15 units during that period. Tonight... well, Pinnacle maybe does not have anything playable for us... Coolbet might have the Dallas-Arizona -game as playable. I will check and see if I will play it. I should not let people's talks about the game being a 100 % Over affect my betting, but Im a human after all. Then again, there was NO WAY yesterday's Rangers-Toronto was gonna be U4,75 but we still hit it.

So bet that game U4,5 if you get it somewhere and if the odds are at least +280. Play it U4,5REG if the odds are at least +190. Do it U4,75 if you get something like +220. I think I will just continue playing this game too no matter what the game sounds like.

Tonight's plays, 0,5 units each:
1. Arizona-Dallas U4,75 +240
2. Arizona-Dallas U4,5REG +205

Good luck to us! The win streak will end one day. If its tonight and we lose 1 unit, thats just fine.

[Scrivero]

Ok, after backtesting the 4th system we can say that its ca +30 units per year system. I donīt know if I can trust it, but I will start working with it slow, betting just ML 0,5 units and doing a double for 0,2 units whenever possible.

Now doing some preliminary backtesting for the 5th and the 6th system.