[Scrivero]

Very cool. I have to check if Nitrogen offers purchasing points for hockey.

I hope they do!

RESULTS:
Tonight's game, 0,5 units:
1. Blackhawks-Jets U4,5 +326 LOSS (5-2)

Well, the TB-game would have been an U4,5. I think we will take back the at least 5 % of ROI requirement if there are only a few games on the night. We still have the limit of ROI of 12,5 % per game for the games to qualify but will be more leanient with the "if the games are together close to ROI of 12,5 %". If the game is a +ROI, we will consider it too. -ROI games are not considered. That is because even if the ROI would be +1 %, we are still making money with the bet in the long run. We are ready to change these thoughts as well. we are trying to figure out the best way to do it. We are getting close.

We will not post the totals of each systems and all systems together if the loss or profit for that night is very small. I want to keep this thread more about the plays (and the new additions to the system) from now on. I will keep some of the analysis to myself too, it is quite time taking to write it all.

Tonight will have the normal 3 Overs + 3 Unders again, PLUS we will have Early system (the original version) implemented again. Maybe 1 tail too.

[w@lt]

Looks like Nitrogen has the alternate lines! On board! Thanks Scrivero!

[Scrivero]

Looks like Nitrogen has the alternate lines! On board! Thanks Scrivero!

Awesome, good luck man!

A bit "late" tonight because of the early games. Here are the picks (only 1) for the first 3 games starting in 15 minutes, 0,5 units:
1. Islanders-Senators U4,5 +276

There will be no Over5,5 games tonight as the best is ROI of 5,6 % and the second best 2,2 % and the third 1,3 %. We dont have to play such overs when we have tonight at least five U4,5 games with ROI minimum of 15,2 % for the "worst". We will most likely play at least 5 Unders tonight.

More picks coming very soon.

For the first 5 games starting tonight we will use the Early goal system. If the following teams give up an early goal (during the first 10 minutes) we will play them for 0,5 units to win in regulation/3way/1X2:
- Boston, Ottawa, Islanders, Flyers, San Jose, Stars, Hurricanes, Predators

Good luck! More coming soon!

[Scrivero]

All Over/Under system bets tonight, 0,5 units each:

1. Islanders-Senators U4,5 +276
2. Carolina-Dallas U4,5 +336
3. Buffalo-Toronto U4,5 +291
4. TB-Winnipeg U4,5 +295
5. Pittsburgh-Arizona U4,5 (reg, 2-2 is a win) +195 (this is +273 on Pinnacle, take that if you dont have regulation bets available)

Took 5 unders instead of just 3, as these were really good ROI and we are still under 3 units bet for the night with the system. Average ROI for these bets: ca +16 %. Hopefully we get some of those Early system bets above in as well. Maybe a tail coming later to the other thread.

[Scrivero]

Boston and Islanders became the Early goal bets tonight. Not gonna do the games starting in 30 minutes, so wont do Stars/Hurricanes/Predators. For one, I want to watch a movie and relax rather than follow the games 1 hour more. Number two, I just want to check the scores for the Unders in the morning, dont want to follow the matches and hope no one scores.

See you tomorrow! Hopefully we hit something! Good luck to us all

[w@lt]

Thanks!

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
1. Islanders-Senators U4,5 +276 WIN!!
2. Carolina-Dallas U4,5 +336 LOSS
3. Buffalo-Toronto U4,5 +291 WIN!!
4. TB-Winnipeg U4,5 +295 LOSS
5. Pittsburgh-Arizona U4,5 (reg, 2-2 is a win) +195 (this is +273 on Pinnacle, take that if you dont have regulation bets available) LOSS

2/5 right, minus or plus units? Well, VERY plus because of the +++++ odds! +1,335 units, nice.

We also hit our second early goal system bet with Boston. Our one tail did not come through.

Totals so far (including the previous night's Chicago-game and that nights tail):
1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+15,805 units (singles), +19,295 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 5-7, +7,55 units

3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

All systems total: +29,381 units.

[Scrivero]

Recalculated the 2011-2012 season and calculated the 2010-2011 as a new season. Here are the stats:

2010-2011
total games: 1319
games O5,5: 601 = 45,55 % (of all games)
games U4,5: 392 = 29,71 %
5 or less goals: = 718 = 54,4 %
exactly 5 goals: = 326 = 24,7 %
games ending 2-2: = 106 = 8,03 %
u4,5 + 2-2s: 498 = 37,75 % (reg, for Coolbet)

2011-2012
total games: 1316
games O5,5: = 572 = 43,46 %
games U4,5: = 407 = 30,9 %
5 or less goals: = 744 = 56,5 %
exactly 5 goals: = 337 = 25,6 %
games ending 2-2: = 132 = 10,03 %
u4,5 + 2-2s: 539 = 40,95 % (reg, for Coolbet)

And here are the new adjusted limits for plays and lines for plays for minimum ROI of 12,5 %:

O5,5: 44,5 %, breakeven point: +124,7, ROI 12,5 %: +152,8
U4,5: 30,3 %, breakeven point: +230, ROI 12,5%: +271,3
U4,5 (reg): 39,35 %, breakeven point: +154,13, ROI 12,5%: +185,9

Happy to see the line for O5,5 coming down a bit, easier to get games for it. The U4,5 line going up is ok, even yesterday way had 5 games over that +271,3 line.

Next we will check the stats for 2012-2013 and 2009-2010. At some point we will also calculate how much we would have won (or lost) on a given season if we had played all games over those lines. We will compare the O/U lines for that season and their results and odds to what they would have been with U4,5 instead of U5/U5,5 and O5,5 instead of O5.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Yes sir, yesterday was good. I will admit; I was nervous taking all Unders, but glad I tailed.

5 Dimes doesn't do regulation under4.5's, but I'm taking them anyway and hoping for the best. I got BUF/TOR for +325!!

I did chicken out a little and only took NYI/OTT under5, so got +168 for it. Overall, I made 1.92u tailing.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

And yes, I still get jealous every time you hit an Under4.5, but now I make money whilst being jealous.

[Scrivero]

Yes sir, yesterday was good. I will admit; I was nervous taking all Unders, but glad I tailed.

5 Dimes doesn't do regulation under4.5's, but I'm taking them anyway and hoping for the best. I got BUF/TOR for +325!!

I did chicken out a little and only took NYI/OTT under5, so got +168 for it. Overall, I made 1.92u tailing.

Awesome! Im happy that more people than just me are getting money from the system Now that it seems to be "finalized" its also much easier to start trusting it. Im gonna start betting full units some day soon again.

And tonight our realized ROI was +53,4 % when it "should have been" ca +16 %. We are happy to take each win though! And the Winnipeg game was 30 seconds from being a win too Cant be too sad about that though, as the Toronto game was already at 3 goals after the 1st period and they somehow managed to keep it Under 4,5 In any case, its the long run that matters, not the individuals wins or losses. We love to run over EV though, LOVE it!

[Scrivero]

Calculated another season.

What odd ares needed for ROI of 12,5 % (seasons calculated: 2010-2013):
games O5,5: +156,7 Pinnacle
games U4,5: +258,5 Pinnacle
u4,5 + 2-2s: +180,7 Coolbet

These numbers will still change as we calculate more seasons. We will calculate all seasons until 2006, incuding the season 2006-2007. We will however not calculate the year 2005-2006 after the lockout as there were rule changes (such as the shootout included) which seemingly affected the amount of goals per game and other factors specifically for that season. I think 7 seasons, including altogether over 8000 games, is enough to statistically see how the games "should" end, assuming that the rules are not heavily changed e.g. regarding goalie equipment or other factors. Someone can even calculate such facors as standard deviation etc. Not me though, I dont think I will go that far. Maybe those will be calculated for the system after a couple of seasons. Its not difficult to do, just need to check the formulas.

[Scrivero]

I feel like I actually want to calculate the following today (using the 2011-2012 season database first):
1. Checking/listing how many of the games in the season would have ended Over 5,5 (instead of line of Over/Under 5) and Under 4,5 (instead line of Over/Under 5,5/5). As only those games can actually qualify for our system. If the line is 5,5 and the games ends O5,5, the odds are not high enough for our system.
2. From that list, listing all games that would have had odds of minimum +156,7/+258,5 had they ended Over5,5/Under 4,5. This will be done by comparing what odds for games are if they would end in a certain way. Hence we get to see what the odds for e.g. U4,5 would have been even if my database would have the actual odds for the actual results of e.g. Over 5,5 or Under 4,5. This will give us the total amount of games we would have played that season. Example: If U5,5 has been -105, the U4,5 would have been ca +285. Just an example.
3. Checking the average odds for the whole list of those games for a part where we will calculate what our expected ROI would have been playing those games.
4. Checking how many of those games would have actually hit, e.g. line is 5,5, U4,5 would have been +280, game ends at 4 goals. Or, the line is 5, game ends at 6 goals, the odds for O5,5 would have been +160.
5. Calculating the % of games that would have hit in our systems. separately for U4,5 and O5,5.
6. Calculating our actual ROI by multiplying the above % with the average odds for all system bets calculated in part 3.
7. Multiplying our actual ROI with the total amount of playable games from part 2, multiplied by the unit amount we play for each game. This shows the amount of Units we could win that season. As it would not really make sense to do all the work if there had been like 10 playable games whole season even if our actual ROI would have been 12,5 %. Our experience shows though that the amount of playable games should be ca 2/5 of all games. Ca 500 games per season. That would mean (with 12,5 % ROI) a total of +56,25 units for the saeson. That would be awesome!

Not sure what we will do if the results show something like ROI of minus 5 % Well, no matter what the results are, we will benefit. Even if we get some harsh reality, it will just show that we need to maybe end the system (or at least count the rest of the seasons really fast). On the other hand, if they ROI does prove to be positive, we need to think about the amount of units we want to win, and hence how many units we want to bet.

Not sure if I will reveal all of those results explained above. I will have to see. Not sure if anyone from the sportbooks follow these types of threads, but I might not want to give them too much insight of what I "know" based on the calculations. Of course anyone can calculate stuff like this given the time and database and a bit of enthusiasm (and crazyness), but still. I might start showing a bit less of the process and just post the picks for you all to see in any case.

I will post something about the results tonight in any case! And of course tonight's plays too.

[Scrivero]

Tonight's plays, 0,5 units each:
1. Sharks-Devils Over 5,5 +172
2. Colorado-Islanders Under 4,5 +307
3. Dallas-Nashville Under 4,5 +275
4. Vancouver-Buffalo Over 5,5 +141
5. Montreal-Boston Over 5,5 +139

The unders odds fluctuate a LOT. The Colorado game was +251 when I started writing this. Jumped to +307 just like that when a minor change game to the Over 5,5 odds. Seems to be worth it to check a bit if the odds go up more if they are not close to +300 already. The Dallas game just went to +282. Gonna follow this a bit more tonight and in the future. The Vancouver and Montreal games were close (both a bit over 5 % ROi) but the 3 overs together were ca 10 % ROI so I took them.

Good luck to us! By the way, Minnesota and San Jose are our Early goal system plays if they give a goal in first 10 minutes.

[Scrivero]

Ok, preliminary calculations for the Over 5,5 games that we would have played in year 2011-2012. Sooooo painstaking to calculate this stuff, takes so so long. These calculations could be wrong too, to one direction or the other, I hope they are wrong to the direction that they will get better when I calculate them again
- would have played 314 games, for 157 units
- 33,2 % of games would have hit hit, with average odds of +160.
- ROI would have been -13,7 %
- loss of 21,47 units with 0,5 units bet per match, brutal

I think the number of games played sounds plausible, so does the average odds. It is also very plausible that we would have hit only 33,2 % of our O5,5 bets, though I hope that with the second calculation I will spot something I did wrong and the numbers improve. Maybe they wont though, we will see. And if they wont... well, then I think we might calculate another season too, but... we might have to end the Over 5,5 games from the system lol.

I still have high hopes for the Under 4,5 bets, as we need to have hit so few games to be positive ROI, as the average odds are probably ca +300. Would need to hit ca 28 % of games to get to ROI of 12,5 %. Lets hope for the best and fear for the worst.

[Scrivero]

In other news, the Sharks or the Devils need to score 1 goal to hit our first Over for the night. THey have ehrrrr, 9 seconds to do so Ok, they did not do it. 5 goals for the first match then. On to the next 4! Good night all, see you in ca 19 hours.

[MJ4thQuarter92]

Wow, that goes against common perception; not betting Overs lol

[w@lt]

Looks like 1-4. I think we only lose about a half unit though?

[Scrivero]

Wow, that goes against common perception; not betting Overs lol

Ya

[Scrivero]

Looks like 1-4. I think we only lose about a half unit though?

Yea 1-4 it is. We lose 1.3 units as it was an Over game that hit. We would have lost only 0.5 units had it been an under game.

I will post more after work.

[Scrivero]

Alright alright. Calculations done for the games that would have been playable as U4,5 on season 2011-2012.

Not revealing the exact stats of this one. Lets just say that yes, we will keep on playing the U4,5 games. Will calculate more seasons for this too. I will see if I will reveal the stats at some point, maybe just maybe.

Will also recalculate the Over 5,5 and maybe calculate more seasons for it.

RIght now we are.... gonna play only the Under 4,5 games? I think? Only those? I think we have to? Or we might have to increase our line of playing the O5,5 games to like +180, but that would give us sooooo very few playable games. Like almost none. And even that would be not enough to make a profit for those. We will recalculate but Im not keeping my hopes high.

THere will be +300 playable games for the U4,5 though... 24,5 % of all games to be exact. So on a 10 game night we get 2-3. We might have to go to full units to get enough possible profits for a full season.

I will post tonight's plays later.

[Scrivero]

Tonight's play, for 1 unit
1. Rangers-Columbus Under 4,5 +350

Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+14,505 units (singles), +17,995 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 5-7, +7,55 units

3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

All systems total: +28,081 units.

[Scrivero]

By the way, with the comment of "thre will be +300 playable games for the season though" I mean the number of games will be more than 300 during the season, and those games will have odds of ca +300. So not to confuse you all. The amount of games we get right is the thing I am not revealing yet. I will however raise my plays immediately from 0,5 units to 1 unit per game. This is mainly to compensate for the fact that we are most likely giving up the Overs, hence we get to play half less games than before, hence we play for half less units total each evening. Hence we are still playing for the same amount of total units each night by increasing the plays from 0,5 units to 1 unit per match. That by the way was our normal play before we started to doubt the system and to modify it. Im glad we did it though. This is a bit more variance style now that we have less games, but we are willing to go for it.

Good luck to us all! Lets hope we dont lose all our +units in the next 28 games

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
Tonight's play, for 1 unit
1. Rangers-Columbus Under 4,5 +350 LOSS (3-2)

What can we say, I think this was again very much possible to go U4,5.
Totals so far:
1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+13,505 units (singles), +16,995 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 5-7, +7,55 units

3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

All systems total: +27,081 units.

[Scrivero]

Tonight's plays, 1 unit each:
1. Islanders-Toronto U4,5 +390 (a curious fact: we have hit a Toronto game U4,5 two times in a row with ca +350 odds. We would have even hit three in a row but they had only U5,25 for it and I only wanted to take U4,5 then)
2. Dallas-Winnipeg U4,75 +403 (if you dont have U4,75 in your sportsbook, take U5, the odds were ca +330 for that. This one might climb even higher)
3. Canucks-Penguins U4,5 +... (I will let these odds go up a bit, if they do. They are now at +264, I think they will go up closer to 300. If it goes down, I wil not bet it.

Good luck to us!

[Scrivero]

Ok, I took the Canucks game at +293. The Toronto game went up to +430 and is now at +403. The Dallas game is now up to +412.

Can someone do me a favor and follow the odds a bit, how high they rise? As I gotta go to sleep in 1 hour and the odds have still time to change for many more hours. To see how high they could rise. I would of course love to get like +400 for every game we play.

[Scrivero]

Following what odds are available for the matches right now:
Toronto game U4,5 +399
Dallas game U5,25 +182
Vancouver game U4,5 +292

So that seems to happen, that they take out the U4,5 (or even U4,75, U5) option when the odds would get too high. Also, the Vancoucer game doesnt seem to climb any higher.

I would be very happy if someone follows where the odds go with the lowest possible unders available.

Good night! Lets hope we hit one game tonight! Depending on the game that hits we make a profit of 1 unit or 2 units. If no games hit we lose 3 units. If 2 games hit we make a profit of 7 units or 6 units. If all games hit we make a profit of 11 units. We would be very happy with hitting 1.

[Scrivero]

RESULTS:
Tonight's plays, 1 unit each:
1. Islanders-Toronto U4,5 +390 LOSS
2. Dallas-Winnipeg U4,75 +403 LOSS
3. Canucks-Penguins U4,5 +293 WIN!!

1/3, proft of +0,93 units. Gooooood. Lets hit the bigger odds games next time too. I think it is plausible to hit 1/3 all the time, even though its enough with +300 odds to hit ca 2/7 too for 14,2 % ROI. With +400 odds it would be enough to hit 2/9 to get to 11,1 % ROI.

Totals so far:1. Over/Under system (started 10th of January 2017):
+14,435 units (singles), +17,925 units (singles and parlays)

2. Early goal system (started 7th of January 2017):
Record: 5-7, +7,55 units

3. The tail -system (started 1st of February 2017)
Record: 11-9, +2,536 units

4. New +++++ system, coming soon.

All systems total: +28,011 units.

Did someone by the way follow how the odds developed? Or is there any way to check the closing lines e.g. from Pinnacle?

[Scrivero]

Only one game tonight, 1 unit:
1. Toronto-Columbus U4,75, +333.

I could have waited even longer but as U4,75 is all we can get it might too disappear soon. U5,25 does not seem to get more than max +200 odds and those would not be enough.

Good luck to us!

[TheCaliforniaKid]

Your wager would have looked better had Bobrovsky been named Jacket's starter. Giving him the night off. Still, best of luck to you and your followers.

[Scrivero]

Your wager would have looked better had Bobrovsky been named Jacket's starter. Giving him the night off. Still, best of luck to you and your followers.

Yes, these games certainly decrease in their chances with each factor like that.

Results:
1. Toronto-Columbus U4,75, +333. LOSS (2-5)


Tonight's bets, 1 unit each:
1. Rangers-Islanders U4,5 +342
2. Stars-Wild U4,5 +419

I want to do some back testing for games that had/would have had odds of +160 to +250 as U4,5. As there are a lotttt of those games. They would have to hit much more often though to be playable. I dont think we will get anywhere close to playable numbers for those.

[Scrivero]

We will also play the WInnipeg game for 1 unit as U4,5/U4,75/U5 if they ever release the odds for those. They now only have O/U6 available.

We are also starting our 4th system tonight! Tonight's plays for that are:
1. Winnipeg ML +197
2. Arizona ML +195

I would have played Arizona anyways because of the Bye week system that Mickey has, but it is also in this system so its going in the stats.

We also have a 5th system in creation. Revealing at some point if we are not broke by then.

[TheCaliforniaKid]

I always take a look at the Goalie play when handicapping. Whether it's recent performance or when the backup is utilized. It shouldn't deter from your numbers/data but I would certainly scale my wagers up or down respectively. Tonight Kemper for the Wild is likely to play, not Dubnyk. For what it's worth.

[Scrivero]

I always take a look at the Goalie play when handicapping. Whether it's recent performance or when the backup is utilized. It shouldn't deter from your numbers/data but I would certainly scale my wagers up or down respectively. Tonight Kemper for the Wild is likely to play, not Dubnyk. For what it's worth.

And here I thought that Dubnyk would be the most likely for tonight. In any case, you have a good point. I could scale my wagers up or down accordingly. I will have to think about that.

[Scrivero]

We hit the Stars-Wild game for +419, nice. Jets lost on OT, Arizona has a good lead. Will post the stats after work.